With just 31 days left to go:
• Two pieces of polling intelligence have emerged today on what appears to be a widening electoral gender gap. The Australian reports the weekend’s 55-45 Newspoll had Labor leading 44 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote among women, but trailing 39 per cent to 42 per cent among men. We are also told that the gender gap in Tony Abbott’s personal rating is now at nine points, up from four in April. As George Megalogenis noted last week, this is likely to hit the Liberals in seats with a high concentration of working women, of which Cameron Stewart of The Australian identifies four: Bennelong, Franklin, Brisbane and Deakin. The Herald-Sun also reports that the weekend’s 50-50 Galaxy poll had Julia Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead at 58-31 among women and 51-40 among men.
• The Herald Sun further informs us that 59 per cent of respondents from the Galaxy survey supported a levy on bank profits similar to that of the mining tax, not that either party is advocating such a thing. Only 28 per cent of respondents said they were opposed.
• Leisa Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that Jen Sackley, unsuccessful LNP preselection hopeful for Leichhardt, will run as an independent. Sackley has complained of a “bullying culture” in the party, and proclaimed Labor’s Leichhardt MP Jim Turnour to be of superior “stature” to Warren Entsch, the former Liberal member who is coming out of retirement to run again for the LNP.
• Possum calculates the electoral impact of Labor’s decision to lock in an election date that gave voters only one weekday to get their enrolment in order. This is found to be in the order of fractions of 0.1 per cent, but might be a bit higher in seats with a particularly high concentration of young voters. The most marginal of these are identified as Melbourne, Ryan, Swan, Herbert, Macarthur, Solomon and Cowan.
• Verona Burgess of the Australian Financial Review notes the electoral impact of public service cuts not just on the Australian Capital Territory, where they might make life difficult for Liberal Senator Gary Humphries, but also in Eden-Monaro. As well as housing many of Canberra’s public servants in Queanbeyan, the famous bellwether electorate also encompasses Batemans Bay on the south coast, which Burgess tells us is known as “little Canberra-by-the-sea” due to its concentration of public agencies.
• Three cheers to Matthew Landauer of the Open Australia Foundation for instigating the most excellent ElectionLeaflets.org.au site, a repository for user-contributed scans and photos of electoral material.
[Abbott should have a better day today – he is more or less being forced to look like an alternative prime minister.]
And there will be no media appearances by him, apparently. His polling seems to improve the less people see and hear from him.
The AFR reports that private healthcare providers believe a Coalition victory at the election will benefit their sector. Surprise surprise.
Well coming from the OO to here your would be forgiven for thinking you had crossed into a parallel universe. According to the Aus, JG and Labor are in all sorts of trouble. I guess they have to try and arrest the momentum before it gets away.
Big Nose @ 33
Wollongong will never merge with Sydney – physically or otherwise. There’s a few hills and a National Park in the way 🙂
[this morning watching Virginia “Great Face for Radio” Trioli trying to talk up Abbott]
I don’t often watch NB, but when I do I can’t help concentrating on whoever is not talking, since it’s hard to just sit there staring at the camera doing nothing. Virginia finds it hard to maintain her gaze and looks down or fidgets a little. It’s an awkward format and I’m surprised they’ve persisted with it.
Also, a Q for Psephos or whoever else might be more informed than me (i.e. everyone):
Suppose you are an MP (non-minister) in an ultra-safe seat (Lib or Lab). What on earth do you do for the next 5 weeks? Make a few token appearances in your electorate promising $100 for a new toilet somewhere? Get towed around by the leaders to be the background head-nodder in press conferences?
Peter Hartcher gives Gillard the sort of serve she deserves for being an empty vessel.
She’s lucky she’s only up against Abbott & Co. because this non-policy policy is an abrogation of the responsibility to establish mandates for key action in the next term.
The campaign is like a piece of absurdist humour – the election without policies. You still have the press releases and conferences; the debates and the interviews, but it’s all really about nothing.
It all reminds me of the ‘Yes Minister’ episode about the very efficient hospital with 500 administrators but no patients.
We even have the PM insisting that her policy on asylum seekers is the same as the opposition’s. What a victory.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/no-numbers-no-substance-no-solutions–just-populist-platitudes-20100721-10lad.html
William Bourke, a candidate for the Stable Population Party (only contesting Senate election in NSW) claims that party is standing on a platform of capping the natoin’s populatoin at 26 million people by 2050. Claims the population debate has been hijacked by ‘big business extremists’ pushing for high population and by ‘anti-immigation racists’ at the other extreme. Policy includes abolishing the baby bonus and reducing immigration to 50,000 people per year whilst maintaining current refugee intake.
[It’s an awkward format and I’m surprised they’ve persisted with it]
Well personally I’m glad I have an option other than the cackling chickens on the commercial networks. They’re enough to make me want to kill myself.
“Well coming from the OO to here your would be forgiven for thinking you had crossed into a parallel universe. According to the Aus, JG and Labor are in all sorts of trouble. I guess they have to try and arrest the momentum before it gets away.”
Don’t worry we have TTH to keep us informed of other universes that exist.
@jaundiced view, the whole assylm seeker policy issue is rubbish.
And It’s the Abbotts only strong point.
Barrie Cassidy (on Faine’s program) has just said that there’s a story being put together for tonight’s ABC News 24 debut that he thinks will have “quite an impact.”
you could always turn the tele off.
[(3) Rudd’s little game with the media in Brisbane yesterday]
You mean the media’s game with Rudd. Sky News couldn’t wait to get him on video and then proceeded with going on about how he wouldn’t answer questions even though they were told he wouldn’t answer questions.
I think you are confusing the media’s attempt at trying to make the election ‘interesting’ with some sort of cunning plan by Rudd to make himself the center of attention in this campaign.
JV,
You continue to labour under the misapprehension that a more open door approach to AS would attract a greater share of voters. Now regardless of the ethical arguments on the best approach to AS, politics is primarily about getting elected, all the huff and puff doesn’t amount to a pile of beans if you just have to sit in the corner and lament why someone else is in office.
triton. did Barrie indicate what story might be about?
Jon@63
Yes, that is what it has devolved to in 2010. Another justification of the ‘There go my people. I must follow them. For I am their leader’ variety. It’s the Gillard/Arbib/Shorten/Feeny/Walsh world-view that it’s better to be driven around in the white cars and achieve nothing, than to attempt any form of leadership in the direction of what is the right policy.
The AS issue is but just one example.
No, victoria. Faine tried to get a little more out of him just before the news, but Cassidy is giving nothing away. He said Watch this space, though he meant watch the space at 7.30 tonight.
The phones will be running hot by now at both campaign offices I’d guess.
Another victory in Keynesian economics:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,707231,00.html
Why are journos still giving Liberals air time about wasteful government spending?
Victoria May be it just an add they need some one to watch it
any search the net you never know
jv, the Greens can be leaders on asylum seekers and get all the benefits that flow from it. Once they win Government they can put their policy into place. I thought that’s how it worked.
triton. I wonder if it is about K Rudd, either relating to leadership spill or news going around the traps at moment that he has been offered a position with the UN re climate change?
[Barrie Cassidy (on Faine’s program) has just said that there’s a story being put together for tonight’s ABC News 24 debut that he thinks will have “quite an impact.”]
I hope it’s as meaty as Laurie Oakes’ “bombshell” on night one.
well he still will not me to watch his programe
So does that mean if you want to watch their staff abc news you have to go to the 24/7 is there no news on 1 now that would be good.
So where is the 7.30 report. etc.
How can they compete with sky all those people that they have working for them no wonder we dont get decent drama any more.
you wait before the days out some one will say something and two and two will be put together
Could the bombshell be about Kevin Rudd not running in Griffith?
He was spruiking to the crowds when i walked past him on my way home last night.
ltep
As you well know our unrepresentative electoral system keeps smaller parties out of the House of Reps, and so denies them the opportunity to form coalitions in government that represent the voters’ views across the spectrum. To use your example of the Greens, even if they were to get the current poll support of around 13% of the vote across Australia, they would end up with 0% of the seats in parliament, with the possible exception of Melbourne.
Those of us with views different to the mirrored policies of the two main parties have to hope for a hung Senate, which is also bastardised to an extent by the preferential and party HTV system
It’s the same for the Liberal Democrats in Britain, but not quite as bad as it is here.
[65
jaundiced view
Jon@63 politics is primarily about getting elected]
Yes. Politics is about gaining, holding and exercising power. The Government are going about this with more proficiency than the Opposition, and will most likely win the election as a result. Is there something wrong with that, j-v?
No party has nominated a population figure when they’ve been asked for one. Not Labor, not Liberal, not Greens. I’m guessing the reason for that is, the moment they do, it becomes instant fodder for their political opponents.
I should point out that Cassidy didn’t say the story has anything to do with politics (but he didn’t say it doesn’t either).
my say, news on ABC1 continues as normal. So does the 7.30 Report, but tonight ABC News 24 is simulcast on ABC1 for a while.
[K Rudd…..has been offered a position with the UN re climate change….]
We can live in hope.
Julie Bishop wants JG to explain what offer was made to K Rudd on night of leadership spill. Is that the best they can do?
ltep
Interested in your coments about the Stable Population Party. As per my previous comments, I would question their 26 million cap. We already have 22 million, and unless I misunderstood the ABS figures, their low growth scenario assumes lower immigration and lower fertility and we still get to over 30 million. They can’t both be right.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/5A9C0859C5F50C30CA25718C0015182F?opendocument
The population debate is such a load of bollocks. complete furphy. hence why gillard went for “sustainable population”. if done right, we could sustain 50m!
its not about a number. its about over crowding in cities, too long spent in peak hour, homes that are too expensive etc….
if we could all just spread out a bit we’d be fine. but government and business need to lead that spread. people will always go where there is work.
Hmm – gee I thought smaller parties were kept out of the HoR because they just dont have the mass support.
The Senate, however, has a place for these parties.
@ post 1 – how much of a similarity is there here between Hawke taking over on the day Fraser went to see the GG? Seems to have caught the Libs off side almost as badly.
jaundiced, even under a proportional system the Greens would still only be able to influence policy to a certain extent unless they were able to bring a larger proportion of Australians along in agreeing with their views. Ultimately, the people decide and if only 13% support their policies in relation to immigration, asylum seekers etc. then they’d probably find it very hard to force the hands of parties who received a larger proportion of the vote. In the end they’d still need to decide whose immigration policy to throw their support behind (and attempt to moderate).
[Hmm – gee I thought smaller parties were kept out of the HoR because they just dont have the mass support.]
I think it’s hard to argue around 10% is not a significant amount of support. They’re kept out because this support isn’t geographically concentrated. The Nationals manage to win seats because their support is geographically concentrated. Different people have different views on what the best system of election is. I’d prefer a system that is better representative of a broader range of views in the community. Others prefer systems said to bring stability and efficiency.
Generally when people are talking about Sydney, they’re talking about ‘greater sydney’ which includes Blacktown, Liverpool, Gosford, etc.
The thing about San Francisco, the 13th largest city, is that it is also right next door to Oakland, the eighth largest city (while having the 44th largest population), and San Jose (31st largest). So the greater SF bay area, which also includes Richmond, San Mateo, Palo Alto, Oakland, San Jose, Berkeley and a few more besides, is one of the biggest metropolitan areas in the world. In total, the SF bay area includes over 100 cities. In 2009 it had an estimated 7.5 million people.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Bay_Area
I think on population there are two extremes. We don’t want to deny peopel opportunities and life choices (and politiians who do willsoon be accused of social engineering). But equaly, we can’t keep growing at the rate we are now without rethinking a lot of things. Spreading out (sprawl) actually increases the problems of growth.
As of 2009, which of these countries had the highest population growth rate? Australia, Brazil, India, Mexico, The Phillipines or Saudi Arabia. Answer = Australia (2.0% pa, down from 2.2% in 2008).
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0/
You can make changes gradually. I see no problem with (for example) capping the baby bonus after 2 children.
JV,
You can’t bring policy into effect from opposition, it has always been this way. What is different is that the popular media sets the agenda much more than it used to and as a result politics has become more about a product portfolio based on 10 sec marketing grabs. Hard to have an in depth cool headed debate in these circumstances, all you can do is to get elected and try and influence the tone by degrees.
And for what it is worth, Shorten has been a most impressive advocate for reform in the disabilities sector, this may not be as trendy as AS or GW, but for a lot of directly affected people it is every bit as important.
briefly@77
Yes, there is something wrong with that: it has become only that – power for its own sake. Where are the basic principles upon which parties used to be founded? What do the parties stand for? Where is the pride in standing up for the underdog and looking after the least fortunate?
The Libs lost any identifiable basic philosophy a while ago, but Labor now has also.
What are we to imagine Labor is seeking power for? So far, just to keep the other big party out of office.
Both majors simply drop any policy difference between them if it could lose a niche demographic. For example, asylum seekers; climate change; public funding to private schools; middle class welfare; Industrial relations. It is an amalgamated right-wing wasteland where the duopoly lives.
Sorry Itep – have to disagree. I dont see 10% as a significant amount of support, not when 80% support the two other forces in politics.
They have the Senate. No one can argue that a MINOR party with 10% of the vote cant influence policy in the Senate. Theres lots of examples of that happening.
[Bishop wants JG to explain what offer was made to K Rudd on night of leadership spill. Is that the best they can do?]
Ah is this the story.
Honestly i am so so fed with this election let it be over so we can go back to running the country,
As i said if the abc would have decent drama that they where once known for instead of the staff news show which will have to be all repeats ( just listen to News radio its all repeats) then they may again be watchable.
Nothiong like good fiction to get in the way of news no sadly only repeats now.
Realy with australias small population compared to the US
what would their daily audience with the day be, Any out there with this sort of knowlege. just wondering.
privi izumo
Yes that was my earlier point. I was quoting ABS figures for the “greater Sydney” area. It is projected to exceed 7 million by 2050, much like the SF bay area as you pointed out. We have no plans to build our own version of BART for Sydney either. At least Melbourne (DOI) is trying.
It looks like Abbott’s decision to go on Hey Hey was only marginally less stupid than Ponting opting to bat against Pakistan on a sticky wicket.
[my say, news on ABC1 continues as normal. So does the 7.30 Report, but tonight ABC News 24 is simulcast on ABC1 for a while.]
Ah the sport channel or the video or silence is looking good.
blue-green good analogy
B-G, i didnt realise he chose to bat! he has made so many dodgy calls as captan.