And you thought a week was a long time in politics. Two hours after the first intimations of action, Kevin Rudd has announced he will face a leadership challenge from Julia Gillard at 9am tomorrow. Speaking at his press conference, Rudd invoked indigenous issues, the mining tax, pensions and climate change in a clear pitch to the party’s left, whom he called on to stand tough against the machinations of the Right faction heavies who have brought the situation to a head.
For my money, if the party room’s electoral prospects are what matters to it, there is little choice for it but to back Gillard. The warlords have moved against Rudd because they are brutally aware that it is he who is dragging them down in the polls and threatening their re-election prospects. In his absence, the government will be able to modify damaging policies as Rudd could not afford to, for fear of being called out over another “backflip”. Labor would also enter the election with a credible and certain story to tell about the next three years, the lack of which defeated Howard more than any single factor with only the possible exception of WorkChoices. Then there’s the feel-good factor of our first woman prime minister, which most voters recognise as overdue. Finally, I suggest that Glenn Milne’s thoughts last week on the dynamics of a Gillard-Abbott election battle would end up looking highly prescient after the event.
Over to you.
UPDATE: And with what great timing, we get the long-awaited quarterly cumulative Newspoll. This combines polls five from April to June, which successively had Labor’s party vote at 54, 49, 50, 51 and 52, allowing state and demographic results to be provided from a reasonable sample size. The state breakdowns show a surprisingly mild move against Labor in Western Australia, from 51-49 behind in January-March to 53-47 in April-June. While Labor has crashed seven points on the primary vote to 31 per cent, the dividend has gone entirely to Greens and “others”. If the result was uniform, Labor would hold its own on those numbers. The only other state with Labor trailing is Queensland, where Labor fell from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind. New South Wales and Victoria recorded little change with Labor leading 52-48 and 56-44, while their lead in South Australia dived from 55-45 to 51-49.
There was little sign of recent turmoil among voters over 50, among whom the Labor vote held steady on 37 per cent. It was a case of other age groups falling to that level: Labor fell five points to 39 per cent among 18-34s, and seven to 36 per cent and 35-49s. The Coalition primary vote was up three points among men to 43 per cent but steady on 39 per cent among women, who have instead sent votes lost to Labor to the Greens and others.
UPDATE 2 (Thursday morning): Not sure how much it’s worth now, but The Advertiser ran a poll this morning of 530 voters from the seat of Adelaide, where Labor holds a margin of 8.5 per cent but has been said to be in trouble. The poll doesn’t entirely bear this out: Labor’s primary vote was down 7 per cent from the election to 41 per cent, but the Liberals are also down from 37 per cent to 35 per cent – suggesting the undecided had not been distributed – and most of the dividend went to the Greens, up 6 per cent to 16 per cent. In two-party terms, Labor retained a handsome 57-43 lead.
UPDATE 3 (Thursday afternoon): Comments thread talk tells us Galaxy are in the field, suggesting we can expect the first poll of the new era either in the Sunday News Limited tabloids.
This kind of puts yesterday’s political events in perspective:
http://www.thenation.com/blog/36570/despondent-boat-captain-hired-bp-gulf-cleanup-commits-suicide
[as we saw tonight Gillard was able to direct Kerry to where she wanted the interview to go.]
Be that as it may be, MB, but Abbott, in his first 7.30 Report interview as leader, was treated with untypical courtesy (atypical for O’Brien, that is), a smiling, alomst servile friendliness.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2009/s2759022.htm
Watch that interview and compare it to tonight’s effort with Julia Gillard and you’ll see how the Liberals get a softer ride from their ABC.
ABC WA TV News re WA Chances under Gillard:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/06/24/2936512.htm
briefly@2750
It won’t be Labor making the link – consider Ken is Ben Wyatt’s Cousin, but it will be the voters themselves.
[It was an error of inadequate knowledge. Three nights ago I hadn’t seen the local polling. I now know that national polling is less useful as an indicator than I previously believed. Obviously a party on 52% will usually win – but not always, it seems. We live and learn, or I do anyway.]
As Peter Brent pointed out, if the 2PP is still holding but the marginals are a basket-case then there must be swings going on somewhere else to counter that. So are we supposed to believe that massive swings against Labor in its marginals were being countered by swings to it in either safe Coalition seats or safe Labor seats, and if so why, and what on earth could be driving such a peculiar pattern? I’d probably find it less strange if the internal polling somehow showed that the mainstream polling was flat-out wrong.
I return to my pet theme that all claims about “internal polling” in the public domain should be treated with distrust unless all details of the polling are released. It’s especially important for political history should Labor not now remain in power several years into the future, because the only thing really telling us whether Rudd was seriously likely to lose was this “internal polling” commissioned by a party that shortly afterwards replaced him. It would be nice for independent psephologists to be able to form informed judgements on whether inferences drawn from that polling (and the polling itself) were sound.
Of course I only hold this view as part of a blatant and futile ploy for all internal polling conducted in Australia to be leaked to me immediately. 🙂
PS: my personal preferences on this – I do prefer Gillard to Rudd mainly on account of Rudd’s social conservatism, but the overriding concern for me is that Tony Abbott never be elected PM. And I really don’t know on the evidence available, which way the risk of that has swung.
Anyway, what a momentous day! A truly historic day when the Labor caucus showed it has the capacity to take matters into its own hands for the sake of country, the government and the people who depend on Labor Governments.
I think we should wait till after the election to make such bold statements.
“My Troy and Adele song actually rhymes.”
What, it has bits that fit together?? 🙂 Yuck.
@Mythrandir/2757:
I have to agree with you, we don’t know when there will be an election in 2010, but there is time for labor to still stuff up.
Psephos @ # 2596
Lefty, we’ve argued about this here many times. The convention nowhere refers to “asylum seekers”, as the earlier post asserted. “Asylum seeker” is not a term known to Australian law. It refers to “refugees”, which under Australian law means a person whom the competent authority has determined to be a refugee. So Australia is perfectly free to intercept and mandatorily detain people coming to Australia without authorisation, and if they are not determined to be refugees, to return them to their home country. That’s what we do.
Pedantic
Arguing over words used by non-lawyers is just nit picking and has no bearing on the point made.
As far as most are concerned the terms asylum seeker and refugee are interchangeable. If you wish to argue as if this is a court of law you have missed your true vocation and I suggest you go and add yourself to the oversupply of lawyers that inhabit the western world.
Excluding you pedantic arguement concerning the words refugee and asylum seeker what is different to what I posted?
Anyway, what a momentous day! A truly historic day when the Labor caucus showed it has the capacity to take matters into its own hands for the sake of country, the government and the people who depend on Labor Governments.
And girls are better than boys. My local member, my state member, my federal member, my prime minister, my governor-general, my head of state – girly girly girly! I’m floating on an oestrogen-filled balloon that only Tony Abbott can pop. Boys suck.
[So are we supposed to believe that massive swings against Labor in its marginals were being countered by swings to it in either safe Coalition seats or safe Labor seats, and if so why, and what on earth could be driving such a peculiar pattern?]
I think I’ve dimly determined in the marginal seat data a trend towards low-income electorates doing better for Labor. So it’s possible they are holding up in safe city seats where it’s not doing them any good.
Well here is my considered take on where we this will go.
Gillard will use Rudd if he is willing in a Cabinet position and ad hoc commissions to boot. Rudd still has lots of supporters and fans and is of course himself highly skilled and a formidable intellect. Also having him involved is a good look for Gillard, the Govt and also for Rudd. Keeping him visibly on board keeps helps bring his particular voting base all over.
I gather it will be Foreign Affairs, but she can create a new ministry as well I guess.
She will begin negotiations with the mining lobby. But I think she will see that she has some negotiating power (should her support in the polls be strong as suspected). So the tax will be changed but the final result will be the mining industry handing over extra billions each year in some manner more acceptable to them, or if they reject it Gillard will still run with it.
The AS issue is a problem of course as no matter what you do the boats will always come. Maybe she can toughen somethings but I guess using her early honeymoon period and current respect to explain things more plainly and directly to the public, about the realities of it all. And about not making Australia a massive prison for boat people.
The rest will be basically Rudd’s policies, maybe amended in some ways.
One month will see her 56/45 in the polls with a bullet. There wil then be strong murmurings about Abbott’s performance. AND his performance will come under much harsher scrutiny by the public. No more flip flopping one day to the next.
Turnbull will challenge, but the cynical right will stymie that and convince enough that jovial joe is the better option. Thus against all sensibility it will end up Hockey v Gillard. And a slaughter at the election.
And people seem to forget the almost Textbook example of the WA State Election in 2008 and what happens when you get an Autocrat running the show.
So the reason Labor (and, apparently, “especially” Rudd) was going bad in “critical marginal seats” was that Rudd’s leadership style within the Labor Party was crap? It was all due to Labor MPs & Senators feeling badly undervalued and out of sorts? That this leadership style & its side-effects were responsible for the vast majority of the damaging policy/tactical decisions taken, and in turn were responsible for the vast majority of the bad polling? Nothing there about brutally hostile media campaigns of unprecedented scope? Fair enough…
So we can assume that since Gillard will have a different leadership style within the Labor Party, Labor (and “especially” Gillard) will thus not continue or begin anew to go bad in “critical marginal seats”? That policy/tactical decisions made under Gillard will be overwhelmingly more successful than those made under Rudd, which will in turn mean polling will be overwhelmingly more positive for Labor? And that any brutally hostile media campaigns of unprecedented scope that do happen to appear will now be easily dispatched by Labor’s enormously improved abilities? Fair enough…
Alright. I am convinced. It was a stroke of genius. Must keep telling myself- even though you are a horse, you are not frightened.
PS- Was it all because Rudd called Feeney nasty names when he repeatedly protested the reduction in the parliamentary printing allowance?
Hello from Changi Airport. They’ve got free internet here.
Did I miss anything?
A two sentence summary would be nice if there is enough to report. 😀
@Thomas Paine/2763,
I would have thought that if they leave it till next election to change leadership, changing leadership now or towards election would pay the price? Liberals will need to get a close as possible to labor votes.
So, how’s Leadership 2.0 travelling in the polls? its been 10 minutes since they upgraded, where’s the media action?
What a circus.
I didnt see you post first – but I think mine probably covers your needs, Diog.
That Lenore Taylor article linked to by Frank really does bear reading:
[TONY ABBOTT put a brave face on Labor’s last-ditch leadership change but privately the Coalition was desperately disappointed that it would not face an election against Kevin Rudd.
And it was utterly dismayed the mining industry had – as one source put it – ”succumbed to (Gillard’s) guile” by agreeing to her offer of a negotiating truce in the mining super profits tax war and to take the industry advertisements attacking the government off the air.
The Coalition has gone out on a limb in support of the mining industry and the prospect of a deal between the miners and the government has left it edgy.]
Turnbull cant help himself I dont think.
http://ht.ly/22BQW
just for shows on
Thanks Gus!
time for a stiff beer or 10, which i’ve had.
what a stinker of a day.
these pretzels are making me thirsty.
Michael Kroger is a pillock.
[A two sentence summary would be nice if there is enough to report. ]
Mandarin gone now,
Ranger take over as PM,
Situation normal, all F’ed up
Very interesting. Funny how successful plotters can never help themselves and after the decapitation like to let the media know of their great work……Eejits !
[ FOR months, a group of Labor senators who did not like Kevin Rudd had been meeting regularly for dinner.
On Tuesday night, the location was La Capanna restaurant in Kingston. Senators David Feeney, Steve Hutchins and Mark Bishop were among those at the table.]
Change came even faster than the plotters knew
Ranger
Ranga, Shows, ranga. She’s not haring around the national parks just yet.
/Give her time and a compass.
MT
JG will need more than a compass once her ass has been kicked from here to dimboola
MT
BTW
julia is as lefty as my cat is an axolotl
Anyone here placed a wager? Centrebet has the Coalition on $3.15!
Better get in there quick before the bookies realise the truth of the situation!
I think there will be more damage to her arse than just kicking!
JG will need more than a compass once her ass has been kicked from here to dimboola
By whom? That arse has been tested by the sharpest steel and still retains its perkiness. That arse is a diamond-edged saw, by crikey.
last bit from me
Gough fought and won against the “faceless men”
howes exhumed them
marktwain@2782
Gus is trying to save face from the Sunrise Mafia.
MT
[That arse is a diamond-edged saw, by crikey.]
which will match the colour of her hair come election day
baseball bats be damned
“Senators David Feeney, Steve Hutchins and Mark Bishop were among those at the table.”
Well, I hope they had namecards. What a pack of nobodies! Who’s ever heard of these semi-elected non-entities?
Not that they’d owed anything to Rudd, like, say, government. I can’t believe they’re now retailing this sordid, low-rent tale of betrayal in sleazy factional borough
frank
along the way ive been accused of being
K rudd
B hawker
G gould
etc etc etc
Mate ia m just abloke whose missus lost her job to workchoices,got fired up at howie and swore that iw ould bust a nut to do my bit to unseat him and the fibs
I have never been paid nor do i belong to the ALP
I have sacrificed a good career and 100’s of thou in lost income-not to mention friends,business contacts etc
After what was done to rudd
I feel ashamed to have even believed real change was possible
🙁
So dont cross that rubicon frank cos im treading water as it is
🙁
lefty e@2786
But what abolut the backroom people in the Greens, and the LIbs ??
Are they ok ??
Or is it ALP Factions Bad – Green & LIberal Factions Goodd.
Hypocrite.
Gough fought and won against the “faceless men”
howes exhumed them
And Julia will show them her arse.
Gusface@2787
and by abandoning the ALP – you are reintroducing workchoices Mk 2 by Stealth.
Talk about cutting ones nose off in spite.
frank frank frank
read the post man
FFO
I can make the sort of dosh most plebs spend a lifetime accumulating
Gutting rudd you gutted the ALP waverers
Dont blame me for the actions of the liddle lemmings
Further
by shafting rudd with no notice or fairness did labor commit its own worstchoices on the man who defeated workchoices
Gusface@2791
So your a fickle person like my 14 yr old Niece who’s a Justin Beiber fan.
Politics is more than Kevin Rudd – he on his own couldn’t remove Workchoices it was the ENTIRE party
Grow up – or expect Workchoices Mk 2 by your pigheadness.
You’re not here to make friends, Frank?
Well, that’s handy, just at the moment!
Gusface@2792
No you dimwit.
Rudd used the same mechanism to get the leadership off Beazley – and no-one batted a eyelid – yet these same people are now crtying croccodile tears.
Hypocrites and double standards it seems Do as I do , not as I say.
Kersebleptes@2794
With “Friends” like these crybabys, who needs enemies – they are helping Abbott and Workchoices Mk 2 without my help.
Frank
remember howes and his liddle band of merry men deposed Rudd with the same clinical manner one disposes of a inconvenient turd
and they will carry the smell for ever more
Gee, I dont recall the Greens knifing a popularly elected PM lately – but do refresh my memory, Frank.
Beazley was the opposition leader, who’d had more than a few chances, in case you’ve forgotten.
frank
so by giving rudd no clear air or chance to bow out gracefully,howes is to be exulted
If abbott wins I will lay the blame on howes doorstep and i will probably leave a steaming turd to allow him to reminisce of his greatness in rooting the ALP
as a gesture of respect I might enclose it in a bag and give him a warning
nah why? he never gave rudd one
Gusface, I think it might be time to turn in for the evening.