And you thought a week was a long time in politics. Two hours after the first intimations of action, Kevin Rudd has announced he will face a leadership challenge from Julia Gillard at 9am tomorrow. Speaking at his press conference, Rudd invoked indigenous issues, the mining tax, pensions and climate change in a clear pitch to the party’s left, whom he called on to stand tough against the machinations of the Right faction heavies who have brought the situation to a head.
For my money, if the party room’s electoral prospects are what matters to it, there is little choice for it but to back Gillard. The warlords have moved against Rudd because they are brutally aware that it is he who is dragging them down in the polls and threatening their re-election prospects. In his absence, the government will be able to modify damaging policies as Rudd could not afford to, for fear of being called out over another “backflip”. Labor would also enter the election with a credible and certain story to tell about the next three years, the lack of which defeated Howard more than any single factor with only the possible exception of WorkChoices. Then there’s the feel-good factor of our first woman prime minister, which most voters recognise as overdue. Finally, I suggest that Glenn Milne’s thoughts last week on the dynamics of a Gillard-Abbott election battle would end up looking highly prescient after the event.
Over to you.
UPDATE: And with what great timing, we get the long-awaited quarterly cumulative Newspoll. This combines polls five from April to June, which successively had Labor’s party vote at 54, 49, 50, 51 and 52, allowing state and demographic results to be provided from a reasonable sample size. The state breakdowns show a surprisingly mild move against Labor in Western Australia, from 51-49 behind in January-March to 53-47 in April-June. While Labor has crashed seven points on the primary vote to 31 per cent, the dividend has gone entirely to Greens and “others”. If the result was uniform, Labor would hold its own on those numbers. The only other state with Labor trailing is Queensland, where Labor fell from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind. New South Wales and Victoria recorded little change with Labor leading 52-48 and 56-44, while their lead in South Australia dived from 55-45 to 51-49.
There was little sign of recent turmoil among voters over 50, among whom the Labor vote held steady on 37 per cent. It was a case of other age groups falling to that level: Labor fell five points to 39 per cent among 18-34s, and seven to 36 per cent and 35-49s. The Coalition primary vote was up three points among men to 43 per cent but steady on 39 per cent among women, who have instead sent votes lost to Labor to the Greens and others.
UPDATE 2 (Thursday morning): Not sure how much it’s worth now, but The Advertiser ran a poll this morning of 530 voters from the seat of Adelaide, where Labor holds a margin of 8.5 per cent but has been said to be in trouble. The poll doesn’t entirely bear this out: Labor’s primary vote was down 7 per cent from the election to 41 per cent, but the Liberals are also down from 37 per cent to 35 per cent – suggesting the undecided had not been distributed – and most of the dividend went to the Greens, up 6 per cent to 16 per cent. In two-party terms, Labor retained a handsome 57-43 lead.
UPDATE 3 (Thursday afternoon): Comments thread talk tells us Galaxy are in the field, suggesting we can expect the first poll of the new era either in the Sunday News Limited tabloids.
Actually, is it not better that Labor switched to Gillard before the Lib’s switched (back)to someone competent.
I have the Newspoll graphs in front of me. Labor’s 2PV fell from 59% in October to 49% in April. Labor’s primary vote fell from 46% to 35%. Rudd’s approval fell from 67% to 36% – in eight months! And the PPM went from 60/23 in October to 49/35 now, and was still falling in the most recent Newspoll. These are scary trends if you’re in a marginal seat. It didn’t need any “factional bosses” to tell Caucus members that. All the conveners did yesterday was bring things to a head, on the last day that it was practicable to do so.
Mexi we actually have a good candidate in and the Libs are doing well out West.
I am confident.
I try so hard not to get upset,
Because I know all the trouble I’ll get,
Oh, he tells me tears are something to hide,
And something to fear,
And I try so hard to keep it inside,
So no one can hear
Yes Glen the Liberals are travelling well in W.A but what makes the candidate for Hasluck a good choice.
just received forecasts for second half of year global economy
Glen@2700
Once Joe Hockey quiit Sunrise on orders of Little Johnny Kev got the limelight and it showed.
Kev had Rove – who quit at the end of last year.
these shows are VERY valuable to get to voters who are not engaged in politics.
Pseph
Why not wait till say early july and announce Rudd was stepping down
It would have blindsided Ltd news and allowed the advantage of a surprise election
Now the fibs can feed off the pain and gain the high ground
I am truly amazed no-one thought this out
Ummm
“Aboriginal health and education expert Ken Wyatt, 57, will become the first indigenous member of the House of Representatives if he can win back the crucial West Australian seat of Hasluck for the Liberals.”
That pretty much sums it up really. Sounds almost too decent for politics really.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/history-awaits-indigenous-candidate-ken-wyatt/story-e6frg13u-1225838034773
The MSM were fed info by ALP traitors that fuelled those hourly/daily attacks. Charming stuff.
You could be right there. Peter Hartcher and Phil Coorey claimed in this morning’s SMH that their story yesterday about Rudd sending Alister Jordan out to gauge backbench support precipitated yesterday’s events and Gillard’s volte face.
So Rudd actually stabbed himself in the back. Or was he hoist by his own petard?
[Rudd’s approval fell from 67% to 36% – in eight months!]
Howard’s prefered PM went from 55 in April 1996 to 31 in October 1997.
He still won the 1998 election though.
Gusface the next federal poll is not that far away. Gillard only needs a short period of time to put her own stamp on proceedings
Glen@2703
Ken Wyatt who will split the inigineous vvote with the Greens candidate who is also indigineous – and like it or not there are some folk of the Truthy mould who would rather drink rat poison than vote for a Blackfella.
[2694
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Read and learn re Marginal Seats, especially from Hasluck which ironically borders my own seat of Pearce
Screw W.A.! The 2010 federal election will NOT be won or lost in WA!
The result will be clear well before then.]
I don’t know where you live SO, but your attitude to WA could hardly be called fraternal. The point is every Labor seat is valuable and to be defended. For you to just write of an entire State is really the height of conceit.
MB
she is already fatally targetted as an assassin
the machine has borked
Frank this is Hasluck not Durack.
yes Glen that is a nice brief
[Why not wait till say early july and announce Rudd was stepping down ]
*rolls eyes* because Rudd didn’t want to “step down.” Only the prospect of a humiliating defeat in the ballot persuaded him to go today. That couldn’t have happened in a non-sitting week, and today was the last sitting day until 24 August.
[The policies that governments need to implement in the 21st century are often extremely complex and require a great deal of explanation, yet the ways politicians get the message out is increasingly fragmented, from TV sound bites to Twitter messages.]
I can cite an example of how ‘the media’ actually gets in the way of politicians explaining policy.
When Kevin Rudd appeared on the 7.30 Report the other night he wanted to talk about the new paid parental leave scheme that had passed through parliament earlier in that day. But Kerry O’Brien wasn’t having a bar of talking about that historic reform. HE wanted to play Gotchas and talk “he said … she said” bullshit. What a waste of his, the PM’s and the public’s time.
The media are just as much to blame for the paucity of public knowledge and understanding of policy as the politicians are. How’s the government going to get clear air to explain their actions and plans when all the media want to do is play silly games and try to trip them up on their words? We deserve much better service from the ABC than the tabloid right wing bumf they push out these days to appease their Liberal tormentors.
[yes Glen that is a nice brief]
Better than your average silver spoon, staffer, private schooled Tory with a pommy accent.
If only we could roll Jensen *rolls eyes*
[I don’t know where you live SO, but your attitude to WA could hardly be called fraternal. ]
Frank is always crapping on about how important WA is. It isn’t! The election will be won or lost in the outer suburbs of Sydney and QLD. Labor has hardly any WA seats, they simply don’t have many to lose. And does anyone really think the Coalition will poll 60% 2pp there?
Pseph
as young glen would say
[bullbutter]
he was never given the option
Gusface. sure the Liberals can run that line but as Gillard can point out this situration was about the direction of the Government also Rudd was not hurt by his taking out of Kim
[If only we could roll Jensen *rolls eyes*]
I wonder if the next Liberal leader will finally decide not to protect him?
[Howard’s prefered PM went from 55 in April 1996 to 31 in October 1997.
He still won the 1998 election though.]
You want to gamble your seat on that? That’s what the Liberal backbench did all through 2007, and look where it got them.
Glen@2716
Hasluck has areas which have a crime rate where the ioffenders of Mr Wyatt’s community and there are also Liberals who aren’t as enlightened.
That is the political truth.
What can Julia do about the asylum seekers?
Well, tonight she made a half decent start.
1. She acknowledged the fear people have of boats arriving.
This is important. The fear people have is real (for them) – heck my mother fears boat people – so to acknowledge their fear means Julia can begin to gain the confidence of those people.
2. Then she can begin to educate – & she already hinted at that by saying it is wrong for Abbott to play on peoples’ fear for political purposes.
Hopefully, over time she can reassure people there really is nothing to fear – or at least reduce the level of fear with counter balancing messages of fairness to those in need.
A tough ask given the crazy way this issue has played out – but she made a promising start tonight.
Cuppa but as we saw tonight Gillard was able to direct Kerry to where she wanted the interview to go. all interviews are between two people pushing a narrative.
[Only the prospect of a humiliating defeat in the ballot persuaded him to go today.]
I think it was more than that. Rudd would have I guess known that the challenge itself was fatal to his continuing chances at an election, so the better course of action was to step down graciously. In this environment the challenge was it.
OK, time to go. I have a plane to catch in the morning, and I’ll be away and offline for most of the next week. Happy pontificating.
[You want to gamble your seat on that? That’s what the Liberal backbench did all through 2007, and look where it got them.]
Um, weren’t Liberal backbenchers risking their seats when Howard had a preferred PM rating of 31?
Frank is always crapping on about how important WA is.
At least he’s not crapping on about Troy and Adele anymore. Small mercies, for which we should be thankful.
Go NZ.
Sure but that doesnt change the fact the ALP PV had flatlined in WA and Jackson is a dud MP. Nuff said!
Shows. As far as I know it is the WA Fed Exec (full of SithEfricans) who keep reversing the branches decisions to roll him.
What a waste of a safe Lib seat with a dud MP.
Don’t get me started on Mal Washer or Julie Bishop or Wilson Tuckey or Barry Hasse or Don Randal.
That’s politics for you!
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Frank Calabrese
Glen@2703
Mexi we actually have a good candidate in and the Libs are doing well out West.
I am confident.
Ken Wyatt who will split the inigineous vvote with the Greens candidate who is also indigineous – and like it or not there are some folk of the Truthy mould who would rather drink rat poison than vote for a Blackfella.]
Frank this kind of sentiment does you no credit at all. It is, in fact, totally shameful, especially considering the history of indigenous people in WA.
[Howard’s preferred PM went from 55 in April 1996 to 31 in October 1997.]
Seven per cent less in half a year more, with an election still a year-and-a-half away at the end of it.
[What a waste of a safe Lib seat with a dud MP.]
Jensen is hilarious, Abbott uses him to get leadership support, then the day after Abbott wins, Jensen has a dummy spit about not being given a shadow ministry!
Jensen is so much of a waste of space that he doesn’t even realise he is a waste of space.
[At least he’s not crapping on about Troy and Adele anymore.]
Oh, isn’t he now.
William
Do you think what the ALP did was fair in light of its timing?
In your considered opinion should labor have waited?
[sorry not sure if you saw it]
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Frank is always crapping on about how important WA is. It isn’t! The election will be won or lost in the outer suburbs of Sydney and QLD. Labor has hardly any WA seats, they simply don’t have many to lose. And does anyone really think the Coalition will poll 60% 2pp there?]
60%…..it has happened before. But in any case, it is not “crapping on” to seek to defend yourself from the miscalculations of a deluded PM.
briefly@2734
Hate to tell you this but in a Marginal seat it DOES matter and count – Hasluck is not like Vic Park or Perth.
Ill-chosen as his words are, Frank is referring to the large bogan demographic which has a plum position in seats like Hasluck. Racism is appallingly pervasive in the eastern suburbs of Perth–I grew up there. Real us and them stuff.
Gusface, I’ll say only that timing was indeed the issue here. There was no question of Rudd being allowed to serve another full term.
[Don’t get me started on Mal Washer or Julie Bishop or Wilson Tuckey or Barry Hasse or Don Randal.]
In contrast to these Liberal loonies, WA Labor sends its best to Canberra.
Psephos @ # 2555
The facts of the matter are that the law says that anyone that arrives in Australia and can demonstrate that they are an asylum seeker (regardless of how they got here) can’t be sent back to the location from which they were fleeing.
“Show me a law that says that.”
http://www.unhcr.org.au/basicoblig.shtml
States’ Obligations
1951 UN Refugee Convention, the 1967 Protocol and UNHCR
The 1951 UN Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol is a legally binding treaty and a milestone in international refugee law. The majority of member states in the UN have accepted responsibility in providing protection for persons obliged to flee their country because of persecution. Australia ratified the 1951 UN Refugee Convention on 22 January 1954, and the 1967 protocol on 13 Dec 1973. New Zealand ratified the 1951 UN Refugee Convention on 30 June 1960, and the 1967 protocol on 6 August 1973. PNG ratified the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and the 1967 protocol on 17 July 1986.
Unlike other human rights instruments that came later, there is no monitoring mechanism or committee that examines countries to see whether they are complying with their obligations under the Convention. It is up to the signatory State to implement its commitments faithfully. UNHCR provides a supervisory role in this process.
States not signatories to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and 1967 Protocol do not have treaty obligations but still have obligations under international law regarding the treatment of refugees.
States that are party to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and 1967 Protocol undertake to accord to refugees the legal status and minimum standards of treatment as outlined in its text.
Article 33 – the principle of non-refoulment
This is a state’s most important obligation because it prevents return of a refugee to a situation of serious risk.
Under Article 33, states shall not expel or return (“refouler”) a refugee in any manner whatsoever to the frontiers of territories where his life or freedom would be threatened on account of his race, religion, nationality, membership or a particular social group or political opinion.
And from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/61asylum.htm#b
Australia provides protection for asylum seekers who meet the United Nations definition of a refugee, as defined in the 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees.
The majority of refugees in Australia have been and are resettled from other countries through Australia’s offshore humanitarian resettlement program.
See: Fact Sheet 60 – Australia’s Refugee and Humanitarian Program
Each year however, several thousands of people already in Australia make applications for protection (refugee status).
These include people who arrived lawfully and who have been staying in the Australian community, and people who have arrived unlawfully in Australia by sea or air.
If found to be owed protection, these applicants will be granted a permanent Protection visa, provided they meet health and character requirements.
Also a read of this might be useful.
http://www.alhr.asn.au/refugeekit/downloads/chapter_2.pdf
At least he’s not crapping on about Troy and Adele anymore.
Oh, isn’t he now.
I’ll do my Troy and Adele song again, but only if completely necessary.
Frank, you almost appear to be excusing the racism that might be a factor in Wyatt’s chances. It is a sore point with me….sorry to say.
[I’ll do my Troy and Adele song again, but only if completely necessary]
Is it better than your Emmo / Gillard song?
briefly@2746
I’m not excusing it one bit, but to ignore it is at your peril – especially if you otherwise have policies that appeal to the voter – and yes People do base their vote on the most tiniest thing that threatens them – and Race is a factor.
Is it better than your Emmo / Gillard song?
That actually wasn’t a song, just juvenile sniggerworthiness. I’m regularly afflicted.
My Troy and Adele song actually rhymes.
Frank, I really think the less Labor make of Wyatt’s heritage the healthier our politics will be.