The latest Newspoll shows Labor’s lead at 52-48, equal lowest since the election of the Rudd government. It is the first time the government has trailed on the primary vote, by 40 per cent (steady on the previous poll) to 41 per cent (up three points) – the previous 52-48 result from October 30-November 1 having had the parties on 41 per cent each. The Greens are steady on 12 per cent, with “others” down from 10 per cent to 7 per cent. Kevin Rudd has suffered no damage on preferred prime minister, leading 58 per cent to 26 per cent (both up one). More to follow.
Other news:
• Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead at 56-44 for the third week running. It also finds that while the majority of Labor and Coalition voters are firm if not fruity, 24 per cent of Greens voters (double the rate for the majors) “might consider another party and leader closer to an election”. Seventy per cent say politicians “should not be giving advice on moral issues”. Fifty-seven per cent support the Shopping Centre Council’s call for a ban on politicians campaigning in shopping centres. Respondents want a republic but not a new flag, nor (what the hell is wrong with people?) a new national anthem.
• Political party financial disclosure returns, such as they are, have been published. Labor and the Coalition parties were evenly matched on receipts, Labor receiving $42.9 million for 2008-09 against $38.4 million for the Liberals and $5.2 million for the Nationals – sharply down on last year due to the absence in the period of so much as a by-election. The Australian counts $4.65 million in donations to Labor from unions (the opposition makes it $11 million), the Coalition parties received $800,000 from Clive Palmer, and the Westfield Corporation evenly divided $230,000 between the two. Stephen Mayne in Crikey points to the disparity between the Queensland and WA branches of the ALP in a period when both had state elections: $14.3 million in receipts and $15.8 million in expenses for the victorious party in Queensland, against $4 million and $4.5 million for the defeated party in WA. Labor is $7 million in debt, the Liberals $4.2 million.
• Tim Dick of the Sydney Morning Herald reviews the recall election issue. All of the American examples cited refer to individual offices – a very different matter from dissolving an assembly, which the Coalition proposes to look at once in government. However, the article also notes the Canadian province of British Columbia has allowed members to recall their local MPs since 1995. Only one attempt managed to procure the required 40 per cent of voters’ signatures, and the MP in question obviated the need for a recall election (as distinct from a by-election) by resigning. In the current environment in New South Wales, that would obviously inspire efforts to knock off enough Labor MPs to cost the government its majority.
• Toni Bell of the Manning River Times reports John Turner, Nationals member for the NSW state seat of Myall Lakes, has announced his 23-year parliamentary career will end at next year’s election. Turner lost the party’s deputy leadership in 2003 and was dumped as Shadow Mineral Resources and Lands Minister in December 2008. The electorate, which covers the north coast north of Newcastle and south of Port Macquarie, will presumably become of interest to the Liberals.
Sorry, to expand:
1. there is no gloss off Rudd. Look at the preferred PM.
2. We had exactly this scenario (from memory, and I’m getting old, so be kind to me if I’m wrong) at the last 52-48 poll; tied primary, fall in 2PP, pref PM stable. It was an outlier.
3. Not seeing similar shifts in other polls, which have been fairly stable.
I see more Greens misleading posts today on CC polisys:
1/ There IS NO % Target or NO % cap listed on th Greens web Site
Greens no longer as written polisy hav a Target , fact
IF there as a target or cap , naturaly it would be on web Site , but noone is there
(no surprise , because under a carbon tax over 2 years its not posible to definitely say in 2 years time if co2 may go up let alone go let down , and defintely not say by how much % So Christine Milne’s verbal words claiming a 2% is a lie , that IS why she will not put th lie on th Greens web site !)
2/ IF , a big IF , Greens new carbon tax polisy ran to 2020 modelling shows a approx 5% cut on 1990 levels (ie 10% on 2000 levels) BUT NOT th 25% cut by 2020 as Greens HAD as a polisy !!!!!
Greens polisy would result in appox 550 ppm by 2020 (NOT th 450 ppm as Greens HAD as polisy!
I dare any Green poster here to rebut th above with links
3/ I also proved 3 days ago Greens polisy is not Garnauts (refer radio intarview audio I linked) , so calling it a Garnaut -Greens polisty is untrue Actualy Diogenes did concede this after 2 days of my arguments by acknopwledging by sayin ‘Garnauts is a combination of Labor & Greens polisys’
Well thats close I agreed at time Alkthough I just thought its Garnauts , mark 11 as per Draft Report 2nd best option extended to when world makes a deel rather than a ’12 mths transiton plan’ that Garnauts Final Report recomends and Rudds ETS already has Eithr way Garnauts mark 11 is not either Partys current polisy
4/ Greens new polisty (as distinct from Garnauts seporate one) is an improvment , as I prev said on there prev stupid 25-40% all or nothing polisy It does allows for some negotation But only AFTER Rudd puts thru ETS , and if it is rejected , and if Rudd thinks a DD on ETS is not worthwhile
QUOTE FROM PENNY WONG TODAY
(bob123456 stupidly linked this saying it was an anti Rudd articel ! He never read it !!
‘Senator Wong hoped the Greens would take a constructive approach to the talks, despite the crossbench party helping to vote down the scheme twice in the Senate last year.
“Let’s remember we would have action if the Greens had chosen not to sit with people like Senator Fielding and the Liberal Party,” she told ABC Radio.
“It’s a little illogical to say we need action, but then vote against it.” ‘
[I don’t have proof of this but the guy at electoral-vote said that minority parties tend to poll better in the lead-up to an election than at the actual election.]
The Greens rarely poll double digits, let alone three out of the past four being 12%.
Have a look at http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?mode=trend&page=continue_results&question_id=2472&url_caller= to compare polls to the 2007 election.
If the Greens managed 9% at the last election in the Senate, just watch what they can pick up when you have people like Conroy implementing net filters. This is prime Green area ripe for the picking.
Bob there is no gloss off Rudd believe me. The voters are having a flirt!
As for the Greens, I hope they keep going up. The higher they climb the further they will fall 🙂
Worst (AFAIN) result for Labor in years though I urge ppl to not try and spin it, it is what it is and I don’t care and nor should you. I could think of this variable or that but at the end of the day, 52/48 is the NP figure so relax and deal with it.
It means nothing
Well this will focus Rudd and Labor a bit more. 52/48 doesn’t seem quite right but I suppose the 55/45 days are over.
But really, Abbott has about as much appeal as an eel in a cesspit.
It’s the economy, stupid.
You must remember this
A poll is still a poll,
A Rudd is still a Rudd
The fundamental things apply
As time goes by.
It’s the economy, stupid.
It’s still the same old story,
a fight for political glory.
The fundamental things apply,
As Time goes by.
Hmmmm, methinks there is a song floating in there.
Oh, I don’t care if we end up 52/48 at the next election.
f the Greens managed 9% at the last election in the Senate, just watch what they can pick up when you have people like Conroy implementing net filters. This is prime Green area ripe for the picking.
I actually suspect most people who vote for the Greens do so because of their environmental policies, not things like the internet filter, which a lot of people might not even be aware of. That’s just an opinion however.
SNIP: Immature comment deleted – The Management.
Yes because the average green gives a shite about the internet filter….
*rolls eyes*
[I actually suspect most people who vote for the Greens do so because of their environmental policies, not things like the internet filter, which a lot of people might not even be aware of. That’s just an opinion however.]
An analysis of the Green vote demographics has shown that the increase is in the 18-34 Male group. This would back up how i’ve been noticing the average disaffected non-political youth moving from an anti-WorkChoices position in 2007 to an anti-censorship position in 2010. They see the Greens like they saw the Democrats, the the third force in politics with strong roots in social justice.
*waits for the barrage of abuse*
Red
Bob 2.1 told me.
*It must be true*
Also Dewgong, the environment is not a leading issue for me, and I vote Green.
Bob, I’m going to ban you the next time you use that monumentally idiotic and immature turn of phrase.
Ronster
The Green-Garnaut policy only lasts two years, from mid 2010 to mid 2012. So it’s pointless extrapolating it out to 2020.
But you are right that a $23 price on CO2/ton whether it’s from an ETS or a tax would be a disaster in the long term.
Milne’s 2% comment is based on their modelling which I haven’t seen. She said;
[Well based on the modelling done to date, the Greens believe that it would halt the growth in emissions, turn it around and reduce emissions by a small amount, probably in the vicinity of 2 per cent.]
[Yes because the average green gives a shite about the internet filter….]
Um, if you broke down those who agreed and disagreed with the filter in a poll, which party would have the strongest disagree?
If you think it’s Labor or Liberal I feel sorry for you.
[Bob, I’m going to ban you the next time you use that monumentally idiotic and immature turn of phrase.]
Can you please remind me what it is I said?
redwombat @ # 61
[Yes because the average green gives a shite about the internet filter….
*rolls eyes*]
Especially those who are parents of young kids and send them to non mainstream schools who shun technology as evil.
And most 18-34 yr olds are self aborbed bogans who prefer to get smashed both with booze and behind the wheel.
Bob, you cannot possibly be that stupid.
Bob, please don’t get banned. I want you right here on election night 😈
[Bob, you cannot possibly be that stupid.]
Honestly – please email me. Thankyou.
See y’all at QT.
*gone*
bob
Only a few posts ago (last thread) you were telling us you voted for every party going, and were going to give somebody else (can’t remember who) your primary this time.
So your phrase should be ‘I have voted Green’ – unless, of course, you were misleading us with your prior post.
[Bob, please don’t get banned. I want you right here on election night 😈 ]
I want to be here too! Labor to retain government with a Labor-Green Senate! 😀
William
Your on Google’s lead news item:
[Tony Abbott closes gap to Kevin Rudd: Newspoll
The Australian – Samantha Maiden – ?45 minutes ago?
TONY Abbott is closing the gap on Kevin Rudd, according to Newspoll, with the Coalition outgunning the Rudd government on the primary vote and slashing Labor’s two-party-preferred lead to just four points.
Abbott gaining ground on Rudd: Newspoll Sydney Morning Herald
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth Crikey (blog)
Sydney Morning Herald – The Australian – Sydney Morning Herald
all 37 news articles »Email this story]
Fame and Fortune await
🙂
William Bowe @ # 71
[Bob, you cannot possibly be that stupid.]
You only *just* realised that ? 🙂
[Only a few posts ago (last thread) you were telling us you voted for every party going, and were going to give somebody else (can’t remember who) your primary this time.
So your phrase should be ‘I have voted Green’ – unless, of course, you were misleading us with your prior post.]
I currently consider myself a Green voter. I used to consider myself a Democrat voter. I never went between back and fourth with these, it was a straight move. Just because i’m flirting with putting the ASP first because I particularly like their policies, I don’t think this changes the fact i’m a Green voter. They will still be the first party with current parliamentary representation to get my vote.
William@71:
[Bob, you cannot possibly be that stupid.]
I wouldn’t bet on it if I were you.
Don’t suppose that there was any negative impact at all on this Newspoll result from opposition to Deputy PM Gillard’s MySchool website and/or her media comments? It’s been one of the biggest media stories for the past ten days or so.
Nah, couldn’t be. I guess that without MySchool being such a big vote winner, the Newspoll would have shown a larger drop in Labor support.
Nite all!
Bob, with a sense of great incredulity, I have written you an email explaining what you did wrong. I have banned you at least for the rest of the evening.
[Bob, you cannot possibly be that stupid.]
LOL 😀
Bugger, i was hoping for 54/46 at least. Well looks like Tony and Co will have a spring in their step for the opening of parliament. I think they had better enjoy it while they can though.
Once parliament resumes, and the actual business of making legislation is back in the news, (rather than bathers and virgins) i dont think that the Libs will hold up or hold together, support from the OO or not.
Greens at 12% is interesting, but they may come unstuck if they dont actually DO something to contribute to mitigating CC. Some of their softer vote could decamp at short notice unless their Senators actually learn to do the best they can with what they have when they have the chance.
Finns
A bit of Dolphin whistling
http://www.newscientist.com/gallery/whalesong-art/9
Boerwar @ 24:
[The thing that commentators missed in Abbott’s viriginit interview was his reference to ‘the rules’.]
SkepticLawyer deals with this very issue.
http://skepticlawyer.com.au/2010/01/25/forgiveness-is-overrated/
Bob – #44
It would be nice to be 17% Greens federally by the election at end of the year. Thats why I wanted to see 13% this month. But there is still next month to pick up the next 1% – moving on to 13%. 🙂
Greens supporters are reminded that the Coalition are up three points while Labor are steady – the balance presumably came from somewhere.
William Bowe @ # 88
[Greens supporters are reminded that the Coalition are up three points while Labor are steady – the balance presumably came from somewhere.]
Yep, the Spouses of Professionals who lean Grean went back when Tone’s Green Army Manifesto was released 🙂
Chances of any commentators in the MSM mentioning that the previous 52/48 was an outlier?? Zero
Diogenes
Posted Monday, February 1, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink
1/ ” Ronster The Green-Garnaut policy only lasts two years, from mid 2010 to mid 2012. So it’s pointless extrapolating it out to 2020.
GARNAUT DID th modelling to 2020 on carbon tax at $23 increasing yrly , as his 2nd best opton (refer June Draft Report)
It does Greens new polisy to 2020 shows a approx 5% cut and giving 550 ppm (VS Greens prev polisy of a 25% cut and Greens prev polisy of 450 ppm by 2020)
2/ “But you are right that a $23 price on CO2/ton whether it’s from an ETS or a tax would be a disaster in the long term.”
as per th above Garnaut modeling , which I also quoted in my #52
3/ “Green-Garnaut policy”
After I linked Garnauts radio interview iwth audio , you conseded Garnauts new polisy WAS a combination of Labors and Greens So your “Green-Garnaut policy” coment opn YOUR own words is incorect
4/ Christine Milne
“and reduce emissions by a small amount, probably in the vicinity of 2 per cent.”
BS , that 2% figure is NOT on Greens web site and NO modeling has been prodused
by Greens I explained in #52 why it is not p[osible realitically
Ron
I think ratsars was trying to explain this to Dio.
He gave up
🙁
@William Bowe, #88
What’s the inference there? Presumably that coalition increase came from “Others”.
Frank Calabrese @ 43
Yes yes, long way to the election, plenty of water yet to flow under the bridge and all that. It’s our best poll in a while though (barring the late-2009 outlier) and this one is more likely to be legit.
And there’s one other former ALP leader that Abbott’s somewhat ‘earthy’ plain-talking style has been compared to – Bob Hawke 🙂
Indeed it could. Either that or the Greens.
Arent they the same thing?
[Indeed it could. Either that or the Greens.]
William the third paragraph of The Australian article you linked to says that the greens are on 12%.
So nothing actually happened
William Bowe
Posted Monday, February 1, 2010 at 11:21 pm | Permalink
“Greens supporters are reminded that the Coalition are up three points while Labor are steady – the balance presumably came from somewhere.”
last poll othrs were 10% , must be down to only 7%
av for that group has been 9%
so it may be an roguer poll
#88
So if the Greens vote was 12% this time and 12% last time, 3% went to Liberals and then Green picked up 3% from Other who are down 3%.
I went to a school with all reds and pinks bar one white……maybe I don’t understand math.