Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition in NSW

The latest bi-monthly New South Wales state Newspoll result is about what you’d expect. Conducted through November and the first half of December, it has Labor’s primary vote down four points to 26 per cent, the Coalition up two to 44 per cent and the Greens vaulting five to an unprecedented 17 per cent. Labor’s primary vote equals the record low set in November-December last year, which is three points lower than the next worst ever major party result (as I illustrated at the time with this chart). The Coalition is up from 55-45 to 59-41 on a two-party measure that tells you less than the primary vote, due to optional preferential voting and a combined minor party and independent vote that exceeds Labor’s.

For all that, Kristina Keneally’s personal ratings are better than she might have feared. From a sample of the 637 most recent respondents, she leads Barry O’Farrell as preferred premier 35 per cent to 34 per cent, and more say she will be a better leader than Nathan Rees (24 per cent) than worse (16 per cent). The former ratings are about the same as Nathan Rees’s towards the end, but they have been achieved against an O’Farrell whose approval rating has improved six points to 44 per cent, with disapproval down seven to 30 per cent. Approval and disapproval ratings for Keneally are not provided.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

222 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. As I have said elsewhere these are very interesting figures.
    Labor are down from Sept-Oct 4 points to 26, and down 13 points from the 2007 election of 39%.
    The Greens are up 5 points from Sept-Oct to 17, which is in itself an 8 point increase of the 2007 election of 9%.
    The coalition picked up only 2 points from the Sept-Oct Newspoll.

    The 2007 results in Balmain were 39% Labor, 30% Greens and Liberals 24%.
    In Marrickville, it was 47% Labor, 33% Green and 13% Liberals.

  2. The last NSW poll thread didn’t even make it to 20. Wonder how long this one will go?

    I’m sure the Liberals are thanking Nathan Rees for writing their attacks and campaign advertisements for them.

  5. MDMConnell = 2

    [ The last NSW poll thread didn’t even make it to 20. Wonder how long this one will go? ]

    Possibly shorter than 20.

    If you look at any other thread a large number of the posts are intimate in house off topic tete a tete’s between the ruling clique on here.

    It would seem that it is impossible for even them to spin these results. So they won’t even try, preferring to stick their heads in the sand and prefer to pretend NSW doesn’t exist. This has been the tactic adopted by the PM. It is little wonder therefore that progressive thinking NSW people are looking to an alternative to Labor.

    In my humble opinion the welded on support for the big party’s is somewhere between 15-30%. Labor is already down to 26%. What is the nadir? Is it 15%, 20% or 25%.

  6. For those getting excited about the Green Party poll result, I bet the result on the day will be significantly below 17%.
    When state governments have changed over in the past the “others” vote has ballooned. This was previously represented by people parking their vote with “Independent”, regardless of if there was a viable independent they knew of in their seat or nor. The Green Party is filling this function now. People know the name “Green Party” and they also know the Green Party will run in their seat.
    However on the day, a large number of those votes will go with the Independents who will doubtlessly crop up in many Labor seats.
    So enjoy these numbers while they last. It’s not support for the Green Party, it’s disatisfaction with NSW ALP.

  8. Since Iemma and Rees had a higher primary vote than KKK, does that mean they will knife her before Xmas.

    Is this a record for number of premier (the party in government) had in one term of election – 3

  9. I know it must hurt died in the wool Labor hacks though. So much pain must be caused by the fact that there’s an entire 17% from the left who did not pick Labor first.

    OUCH!

    :kiss: :kiss: :kiss:

  10. I believe this would reduce the number of ALP seats in parliament to the lower 30s. I want ALP to lose government but not that badly! The only hope for democracy in NSW is a hung parliament with the Greens. This poll shows that as more likely happening in 2015 than 2011 though 🙁

  12. “The only hope for democracy in NSW is a hung parliament with the Greens.”

    I’d have thought that seeing a universally despised and dysfunctional government getting a monumental kick up the arse suggests that democracy’s in pretty good shape…..

  13. Who is looking forward to March 2011 more

    a. The Liberals
    b. The NSW people
    C. The Greens
    d. Nathan Rees

    I am going to say a will be last

  19. [Hahahaha she is already beating the barrell on prefered prime minister, you go girl. Some furniture will be saved yet.]
    I know O’Farrell’s job satisfaction ratings have improved but that preferred premier number must be a worry. What’s that that bloke got to do?

  20. [I’d have thought that seeing a universally despised and dysfunctional government getting a monumental kick up the arse suggests that democracy’s in pretty good shape…..]

    Replaced with another less-despised and waiting-to-be-dysfunctional government? Not my preferred outcome – although I’ll take that over what we’ve got now.

    My preferred outcome would be a hung parliament. It would take at least 2 elections to shake all the dross out of the parliament we have; a hung parliament would more likely have a 2nd election called sooner through a possible no-confidence vote.

  22. I hope Tripodi, Obeid and the other nutters are happy! They’ve consigned their party to the electoral graveyard!
    O’Farrell is a dud, but he’ll win by default!
    A sad state of affairs for the people of New South Wales!

  23. [I’d have thought that seeing a universally despised and dysfunctional government getting a monumental kick up the arse suggests that democracy’s in pretty good shape…..]

    I’d agree if the other mob were any better, but sadly they’re not!
    And having Labor reduced to a rump of 20-30 MPs in 2011 would hardly be good for democracy, but that’s where we’re headed.

  24. oops that was preferred premier. Look ye all NSW lib gain is a given. The question is will KKK reduce the loss more than Rees. We will never really know but we can only go on the polls. I suspect that she will, so therefore job done. A good move to pick a sassy las like her. A working mum with a young family

  25. Leaving a rump of 30MP is good for Labor?

    Lets look at the margins, the MP that are left will be named Tripoli, Obeid, Sartor, Della Bosca, KKK, Kopenberg etc. If they remain in parliament, ALP will be unelectable until 2030.

    I think for Labor, 6MPs would be good and clean out the garbage

  26. A garbageman would do better than a charity coordinator when it comes to the current government. Kristina Keneally’s got as much backbone as a box jellyfish.

    The NSW public hasn’t been swallowing the ALP spin since Iemma’s days.

  27. #23

    I’d say they’d be better, partly because they can’t possibly be worse, but mostly because at least they’ll be new and fresh. By 2019 they’ll probably be displaying the same decaying signs as Labor now, but for the first couple of terms new governments are generally okay.

    And I don’t remember too many Labor types complaining about “democracy” when the Liberals were reduced to a rump through 1999-2007, so it’s hard to complain now the boot’s on the other foot.

    #24

    Antony Green has written post after post demonstrating that preferred premier means little, if anything. Opposition Leaders almost never win PP no matter how dire the government (e.g. Keating beat Howard in PP, Kirner beat Kennett). A close PP is a good performance from an OL’s viewpoint, not a bad one.

  28. [I think for Labor, 6MPs would be good and clean out the garbage]
    So leaving a rump will make the ALP unelectable until 2030 by leaving a rump of 30 but will be good for Labor if they’re left with 6? I don’t think so.
    Tripoli, Obeid, Sartor, Della Bosca and Kopenberg will leave parliament I believe in by -elections during the next parliament. Why would they stick around for at least 8 years in opposition after experiencing power for so long?

  29. The tipping point for this NSW government was when they lost the fight with the unions (and the parliament) over the electricity privitisation. Before that they were most likely to lose government – afterwards they were destined to lose government. Ironically, the liberals will almost certainly flog it all off after they win in any case.

  30. The problem for the Libs will be the expectations on them to fix everything. When it becomes glaringly obvious they’re no better the disappointment will be massive. How long this will take is anybody’s guess but it will happen.

  33. I doubt Tripodi and Obeid would stick around if there’s a slaughter in 2011!
    I doubt Koperberg will recontest Blue Mountains at the next election!
    Keneally will wear the blame for the defeat, and Michael Daley will take over as Opposition Leader(you can assume Labor will retain Maroubra).

  34. re : 3 or more Premiers from one party in a parliament.

    I have gone back to 1900 and the only occassions there have been 3 or more Premiers from the one party during the course of a parliament are :

    Askin-Lewis-Willis (1973-1976) Liberal Party. At the 1 May 1976 election the Liberal government was defeated by Labor, lead by Neville Wran.

    Iemma-Rees-Keneally – ? (2007-2011). Labor.

    The reason I haven’t looked prior to 1900 is that there were frequent changes of Premier, however, the 2 rigid 2 big party system we now have was not in place.

    The parliament resulting from the 1920 election is interesting but does not technically qualify. The 1920 election resulted basically in a house split equally (45 each) between progressives and conservatives. John Storey (Labor) was appointed Premier. He died and Labor appointed James Dooley as Premier. The Speaker of the LA (a conservative supporter) resigned as Speaker and Labor appointed a Labor MP as Speaker and then lost a vote 44-45. Premier Dooley asked the Governor to dissolve the parliament and hold an election. The Governor refused to do so. Premier Dooley tendered the government’s resignation, and opposition leader George Fuller (Nationalist Party) was made Premier. His premiership lasted 7 hours. When parliament resumed after Fuller’s appointment, the Labor Speaker resigned. No one was prepared to take the Speaker’s job, and the parliament sat paralysed. Eventually the original conservative Speaker, Daniel Levy, accepted the position on the condition he would seek a dissolution and fresh election from the Governor. This request was refused. The 7 hour Premier, George Fuller then resigned his government and the Governor appointed James Dooley as Premier, on condition he request an election. This occurred in December 1921 and an election was held in March 1922. At the 1922 election Labor led by Dooley was defeated. Fuller won the election and became Premier.

  35. [So how far will the pendulum swing? Are there any local members working their electorates hard that might buck the trend?]

    When the swing is on, the marginal seats fall, it doesn’t matter how hard the local members have worked! Geoff Corrigan and Phil Costa are said to be decent local MPs, but you’d have very strong doubts that they can hold Camden and Wollindilly respectively.

  36. #32

    Monaro’s the one that’s always talked about as bucking the trend. From all accounts Whan is a good MP, and personal votes tend to be higher in country seats. Maybe Bathurst too?

    I don’t know whether the personal vote in urban seats is strong enough to resist any statewide swing.

  37. [And I don’t remember too many Labor types complaining about “democracy” when the Liberals were reduced to a rump through 1999-2007, so it’s hard to complain now the boot’s on the other foot.]
    I tell you what you do hear though plenty of conservatives and their supporters wanting an early election to get rid of a very long lasting government that has out lived usefulness. Guess why it was such a long lasting government. Yes, you guessed it, because they won elections that reduced the Liberals to a rump through 1999-2007. Was that good for “democracy” ? Not too many people would be saying “yes” to that today but I bet all those Lib and Nat supporters will be over the moon when that happens and will not be caring too much about the good of “democracy”. Hypocracy is a two way street.

  38. [I thought Koperberg was quitting in 2011]
    You could very well be right. I’m a Victorian taking my cues from you New South Welshmen.

  39. Rudd must feel like a fool! He was forced into publicly supporting Nathan Rees, all for nothing!
    Time for some federal intervention of some sort!

  40. EVAN 14

    I do not believe a Prime Minister had ever been slapped in the face by a state branch like that ever before. I believe there will be some form of pay back after the climate talks

    The best thing for NSW ALP will be the likes of Obeid etc to be disendorsed

  41. #37

    Winning landslides as a tired and worn-out 8 or 12 year old government is not quite the same as winning one as a fresh and enthusiastic new government. If Labor is still an unelectable rump in 2019, I’d agree with you.

    Your broader point I agree with, though; I like to see a consistent turnover of governments after 10 or so years, which is about their useful lifetime (e.g. Keating and Howard both deserved to be put out of their misery when they were).

    #38

    I’m a Victorian too, but lived in NSW for several years.

    #39

    Yes, silly move by Rudd. Just throw NSW under the bus until 2011.

  43. MDM

    It was really funny

    K Rudd spend the first 2 years ignoring NSW (the biggest state) and pretending it did not exist. When he finally made a comment about NSW …. it bit him

  44. centaur009 – 24

    [ The question is will KKK reduce the loss more than Rees…… I suspect that she will, so therefore job done. A good move to pick a sassy las like her. A working mum with a young family ]

    For years now NSW Labor has been holding out a carrot on a stick…‘Things will get better’. However, nothing has really changed. Why would they change? Keneally is like Abbott, an accidental leader, appointed as a knee-jerk reaction to circumstances. In Labor’s case one has an uncomfortable feeling the circumstances causing the knee-jerk reaction was Rees’ announcement of his intention to reform political donations, his sacking of Tripodi and the possibility of a Sartor premiership. Keneally comes to the job without a plan. What does she have going for her apart from being pretty?

    Frank Sartor and John Della Bosca both had prepared 100 day plans for action. Keneally does not have one.

    When Della Bosca was effectively eliminated from the race, Sartor was the only one with a plan. Reports are that last minute switches in support caused Sartor to lose the right wing faction support by just 2 votes. Why the last minute vote switches? One suspects it may have something to do with the animity Tripodi holds toward Sartor and possibly as a Labor outsider, he could not be trusted to observe the right wing’s code of silence.

    It is extremely difficult to see how Keneally will do any better than Rees. After being hampered throughout his term, it was only in the last month or so he was starting to hit his straps.

    Governance has been stymied because of the changeover. The $35 million electorate stimulus package was to have been announced on 4 December 009 – the day they lynched Rees. It is still not announced. Right wing Labor puts its factional interests ahead of NSW people. Why should Keneally make a difference?

  45. Sartor isn’t popular, but he at least knows how to make some firm decisions!
    Perhaps what is needed in NSW until March 2011 is a caretaker government of some sort, made up of all sides(Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Greens etc)!

  46. Gary Bruce – 38

    I don’t know what Koperberg plans on doing. He is a Labor outsider of course.

    However, I overheard a conversation he was having with another Labor MP (it was either 2nd or 3rd December 2009 – just days before the Rees lynching).

    He was saying words to the effect. Politics is a nasty business. It turns people into nasty bits of work. Look at XXX……was a very nice person before (he/she) came into parliament.

    He sounded extremely disillusioned.

  47. I still think there is a case to treat NSW like a dysfunctional local council, and put in an administrator until the next scheduled election. Surely there is a moderately skilled accountant somewhere with a bit of free time?
    No, NOT you, Barnaby!

    Jean
    President, IWSNL
    (Inner Western Sydney Nimby League)

  48. “but for the first couple of terms new governments are generally okay”

    Anyone teaching in a NSW public school during the Greiner years would emphatically beg to differ!

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