A poll by the Adelaide Advertiser has produced a counter-intuitive result, with Labor’s lead increasing in the wake of the Mike Rann sex allegations to 57-43, up from 55-45 at the previous survey of October 14. After distribution of the undecided, Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 43 per cent, the Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35 per cent and the Greens are up two to 10 per cent. The full set of results informs us that Labor’s two-party vote in both metropolitan (54-46) and non-metropolitan (55-45) areas is lower than the total, which obviously can’t be right. The former figure grants Labor less than half the minor party and independent preferences compared with the more normal two-thirds; a more plausible metropolitan two-party split would be 58-42 or 59-41. The sample is 661 respondents, which isn’t bad for a state poll, but there seems reason to believe The Advertiser’s in-house polling is not conducted with the expertise you would expect from a professional market research agency.
She will definately save furniture gary- remember 90% of people don’t give a toss about politics. She is attractive, a working mum, will be getting more good news with economic growth and jobs Not saying she will win that is a miracle that even I don’t believe but will do better than rees would have, and will make the libs fight for it
Don’t tell me Bob they too are the government in exile!! In NSW that is.
[And what a travesty it would be for NSW Labor as well as NSW should the incompetent inept mob apparently known as the NSW government be re-elected for another term. Any true blue Laborite who has the ability to break away from Labor hackery would see that a defeat is in the best long term interests of the party.]
What a load of BS. What would be a travesty is for the Libs to be up against an opposition with numbers resembling a cricket team, with little or no prospect of being elected at the following election and with very little prospect of renewal for many years. Not having an effective opposition is bad for government and, yes, that applies to the federal sphere as well.
GB, so you’d prefer Labor is re-elected again?
Would you let a cat who has been run over struggle and linger for ages before eventually dying or if you had a weapon would you put it out of it’s misery?
Sometimes we have to be cruel to be kind.
From far off South Australia, Ms Keneally looks a good ‘un to me. Nathan Rees was a genuine bloke but didn’t project so well. Sadly, after so many years of desperate government, none of them has a lot to sing about.
As for the Tiser poll, it’s plainly wrong for the country areas. The Libs will win Mount Gambier, probably Chaffey and quite possibly Frome.
Despite this feel-good poll, Labor is very vulnerable in Morialta, Mawson, Norwood and two or three other seats. Much will depend on the general mood on election day. If it’s stinking hot, gardens are dying for want of water and the power’s off, watch out.
Otherwise, expect Labor to run a better-funded, more sophisticated campaign which will get it comfortably over the line.
[GB, so you’d prefer Labor is re-elected again?]
Bloody hell, where in what I’ve said, did I say that?
[As for the Tiser poll, it’s plainly wrong for the country areas. The Libs will win Mount Gambier, probably Chaffey and quite possibly Frome.]
I doubt the Libs will regain Frome.
[Despite this feel-good poll, Labor is very vulnerable in Morialta, Mawson, Norwood and two or three other seats.]
Whenever polls have been done in Labor marginals (Mawson and Light come to mind) it’s revealed next to no change in the vote since the 2006 election.
[Bloody hell, where in what I’ve said, did I say that?]
That was the impression I got from what you said. So you don’t think NSW Labor should be re-elected. Good. We agree.
Bob next you’ll be asking would I prefer the Federal Libs to be re-elected. I did mention the federal sphere as well.
Hi Dio
[I see the ostriches are out in force. If anyone doesn’t think Rann’s dalliance isn’t a political issue, one way or the other, they are completely out of touch with reality. There has been an enormous amount of commentary on it in SA and it could affect votes.
If the comments about sex in the Premiers office are true, it is going to hurt Rann electorally.
Almost no-one has mentioned the AS issue to me but Rann’s friendship with the married barmaid has come up many times.]
[I certainly haven’t heard any suggestion of anything illegal. The messy thing would be if they had sex in Rann’s office.
As I said before, I don’t many votes will shift as we all knew and didn’t really care.
And there definitely was an overlap.]
[Rann must be peeved that she’s talking now. We all thought she’d shut up. Rann can’t come out and attack her because he’s said a lot of nice things about her.
And I’m betting the farm that Rann will not deny it, despite all of the PBers prayers.]
[Rann created straw men during his presser. The thrust of his defence was to ridicule things he was never accused of.]
[Of course he ridiculed the accusations, because he rejected them COMPLETELY, he said he never had sex with her, are you that surprised his recollection of the specific scenarios of where and when and how the sex occurred wasn’t perfectly accurate when he says it NONE of it EVER happened?]
[Do you understand now?]
[Do you understand how you are wrong now?]
[That was the impression I got from what you said. So you don’t think NSW Labor should be re-elected. Good. We agree.]
No we don’t. You want them decimated and I don’t for the sake of good government. Nice try but no cigar.
[Bob next you’ll be asking would I prefer the Federal Libs to be re-elected.]
NSW Labor is incompetent and inept. Federal Labor isn’t.
Chinda
Thanks for your comments on St Clair. Interesting that you don’t feel it is widespread. I live on the other side of town and find it hard to judge.
If what you say is true it reminds me of the Chelsea Theatre ‘furore”. Who cares? IMO it is an old ugly building with inadequate parking that runs movies that cater to a very small demographic, and I even like art movies! A small group of self-interested persons want to keep it an eyesore forever. If Rann wants to make political capital, oversee its repalcement! Especially if it is on publically owned land. Why do my rates have to subside their hobby?
THe beautiful KKK is a saggitarian 19/12/68. All the best people are saggitarians. she’s got my support. You go girl!
[I have no idea how the rural vote in SA is going but isn’t that academic?]
Probably. But consider this: maybe the poll got the metropolitan vote basically right but totally fluffed the rural, so that the only effect of the latter was to inflate the Labor total. What we have here is a poll that points to a swing against Labor of at least 4 or 5 per cent in Adelaide, assuming my 58-42/59-41 interpretation is right and their 54-46 is wrong. If uniform, that would cost Labor Light and Mawson for sure, and potentially Norwood and Hartley besides. That would leave them with a majority of one.
Socrates 62, you might not have to worry about subsidising the Chelsea for much longer. Art movies may have a small demographic but obviously have a few fans with big bucks in their pockets!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26471449-5006301,00.html
Gee, i didnt realise Diog bashing is happening here as well. Otherwise, i would have stayed away 😛
[Probably. But consider this: maybe the poll got the metropolitan vote basically right but totally fluffed the rural, so that the only effect of the latter was to inflate the Labor total. What we have here is a poll that points to a swing against Labor of at least 4 or 5 per cent in Adelaide, assuming my 58-42/59-41 interpretation is right and their 54-46 is wrong. If uniform, that would cost Labor Light and Mawson for sure, and potentially Norwood and Hartley besides. That would leave them with a majority of one.]
I think i’ll just wait for the authoritative Newspoll 🙂
If I was a betting man, I would predict labor will lose Mawson and Light at the election and win Stuart. Obviously the Libs will win Mt Gambier. I also expect Karlene Maywald to hold Chaffey. Mitchell will be very close – ironically an increase in the liberal vote in Mitchell could finish off Hanna and deliver the seat to labor. That’s my long range forecast!
The word along the Murray is that Maywald, a Rann Cabinet member, will be out and the Liberal candidate will win the next election.
Add that to William’s interpretation above [#64] ignoring Mt Gambier and Frome, and you have….?.
Actually, you have the same result. I was referring to a one seat Labor majority, of which Karlene Maywald does not form part.
[If I was a betting man, I would predict labor will lose Mawson and Light at the election and win Stuart.]
I reckon all three will remain status quo.
I think the good people of the Murray will be smart enough to realise they have better hopes of good representation from one of theirs inside the labor cabinet than from a new opposition member. Maywald has performed admirably in a very difficult portfolio.
[bob1234
Posted Friday, December 11, 2009 at 12:53 am | Permalink
….
considering you’re a Labor staffer to David Feeney.]
I think we all know who Psephos is, the question is, who is bob1234?
[who is bob1234?]
Best of luck to you on that one 😉
Bob, there’s something in the idea that invoking Psephos’s employer against him while you remain anonymous is poor form. No more of it please.
60
The ALP currently has 51 seat in the Legislative Assembly of New South Wales and so if decimated (to the nearest MLA) would would have 46 (one seat short of a majority). If you include the Legislative Council then it is 70 seats meaning that decimation would leave 63. At the 2011 NSW election the ALP should be hoping to be decimated instead of destroyed.
William
[Probably. But consider this: maybe the poll got the metropolitan vote basically right but totally fluffed the rural, so that the only effect of the latter was to inflate the Labor total. What we have here is a poll that points to a swing against Labor of at least 4 or 5 per cent in Adelaide, assuming my 58-42/59-41 interpretation is right and their 54-46 is wrong. If uniform, that would cost Labor Light and Mawson for sure, and potentially Norwood and Hartley besides. That would leave them with a majority of one.]
Thanks; given those assumptions I suppose it could be that close, although that is not the sense of things on the ground I have in my part of Adelaide. It seems very status-quo to me.
By the way, an interesting historical viewpoint of Mike Rann’s rise to power and subsequent analysis of part of his first term can be read at Haydon Manning’s Flinders Uni website:
http://www.socsci.flinders.edu.au/spis/staff/Yes%20Premier%20Chapter%208%20Mike%20Rann.pdf
It’s a little outdated now, but in a way it makes for more interesting reading as it speculates on how his premiership might turn out circa 2004. Haydon makes some very astute observations.
[Bob, there’s something in the idea that invoking Psephos’s employer against him while you remain anonymous is poor form. No more of it please.]
Sure thing William!
Political figures getting a boost from sex scandals is nothing new. Refer to Bill Clinton/Monica Lewinski and Rudd/strip club as examples.
I’d be surprised if Maywald holds Chaffey. They have a good candidate up against her and Water is going nowhere, although that’s more The Feds than Maywald’s fault.
Wong must have expended an enormous amount of her time on the ETS so I don’t blame her for a lack of progress.
Rann’s court action against Victoria will help but most irrigators are unhappy.
Diog
and where oh where is the water they want going to come from?
I’ve looked under the bed, there isn’t any there. I’ve looked at the local dams – nothing there either.
My understanding is that Victoria’s water trading deal was purely to do with Victorian water. Break it by all means, there won’t be a single extra drop for SA.
SA needs to get over the misapprehension that Victoria is hiding water somewhere and all they have to do is turn on the tap and the Murray will be happy again. It’s simple: there’s next to bugger all up here so there’s nothing for down there.
I’m told that NSW/QLD MIGHT have some water under the bed, but don’t know enough about their operations to know if that’s so.
z
There are too many water licences.
D
no, there is too much water allocated under those water licenses, something Vic took action on long before NSW and QLD (who I don’t think HAVE taken action).
The Victorian state government, through taking action, has lost seats such as Benalla (decommissioning of Lake Mokoan). Takes a lot of political nerve to take water away from people!
However, that’s an argument for when there is water to be over allocated. 110% of nothing is nothing; for that matter, 200% of nothing is nothing.
Excuse my ignorance, but is voting in SA compulsory preferential or optional preferential?
Compulsory.
The Libs won’t win Frome and the ALP is unlikely to win Mitchel. I don’t think many seats will change hands at all really – maybe the Libs will pick up one or two seats but no where near enough. As always when the winning party in the lower house is obvious the interest turns to the upper house. FF are on the back foot, MrX isn’t running and the Democrat turned Independent won’t get 1%. the Greens will get a BIG swing but I don’t think it will be quite big enough to win a second. I predict ALP5, LIB5, GRN1. However FF or a second GRN or possibly even both could take a seat (or two) off of a major party, most likely the Libs.
I am surprised that people are taking the final figures on face value as a vindication of Mike Rann. Mike Rann has definitely fallen out of favour with many women as the demographic breakdown in the poll shows. Men are taking a nudge, nudge, wink, wink approach and have been sold a new sporting stadium to watch their favourite teams by the premier and their support has risen slightly. Greens are increasingly popular with women. Independents have gained too. If Isobel Redmond can get her team to perform she will be a contender.
St Clair has been handled smoothly by Minister Hill but there is a great unease in the community as to whether TODS are really a ruse to grab public open space and convert it to private profit for the developers. There is strong opposition from within a Labor stronghold of Woodville to the land swap at St Clair where people feel taken for granted and betrayed. There is a great unease that the TODS will create traffic congestion, there will be nowhere for children to play and the development will become slums. The people of Woodville and surrounds may also be looking at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital and notice how run down the Emergency and Outpatients areas are and wonder how ambulances will get down Woodville Rd when the wig wags are going constantly for all of the trains and trams the government promises to run.
Whilst the Premier has launched the sporting stadium to replace the Adelaide Oval, the problems with the plan, despite in principle support from the various sporting bodies, will not be resolved quickly (apart from the money). One example is the impact on parking for people working in or visiting children in the nearby Women’s and Children’s Hospital. There isn’t enough parking now and this plan will make it next to impossible for distressed parents ,with sick children requiring their constant support, to park nearby without paying exorbitant fees which they can’t afford. As Simon Royal pointed out on the ABC’s 891 this morning the support for the Labor Party may be wide but it has little depth.
Jillian,
Thank you for those Liberal talking points.
Next.
88 THM Generally agree but Winderlich is a definite chance in the upper house as he will get a couple of % and collect some preferences. What he needs is X to give him some support and he is a real show and there is no sign of any other smart independents yet.
Wakefield
Winderlich will need a big budget for a start. But that won’t be enough, he needs publicity and some achievement to point to in his short time in office. Short of a MrX endorsement I’d put him on around 1% if he’s lucky. He’ll have the Democrats to battle with over those very few voters loyal till (well beyond) the end. So really I don’t think he’s got a hope. So far he has handed out cupcakes to raise publicity. Cupcakes!!! He’ll have to do better than that. This election is a game fought between the ALP, Liberals, Greens, FF and the Nats: the other candidates are just observers, even if some are quality.
[I predict ALP5, LIB5, GRN1.]
I predict ALP4, LIB4, GRN2, FFP1.
And don’t forget that the Greens are likely to pick up some preferences this time from parties like FREE Australia and various anti-censorship/pro-gaming parties.
Greensborough Growler,
It is better to discuss issues about the state of our hospitals, traffic, parking and the future of open space without labels. There are more hospitals in the state than the RAH and planning decisions should take into account the impact of those decisions on hospitals and traffic as well as to recognise the importance of open space and mature trees to people and the environment. The 30 year plan launched by the government fails to recognise the need for additional public open space to replace the loss of the aussie backyard. Urban infill is creating all kinds of problems which aren’t addressed in this developers’ dream. There is an imbalance occurring in SA where the needs of the people are wrapped in rhetoric whilst being trampled in reality. These are not Liberal talking points but key issues for all parties including the government, the Greens and Independent candidates.
[One example is the impact on parking for people working in or visiting children in the nearby Women’s and Children’s Hospital. ]
The ACT government imposed a parking fee for those visiting hospitals and then had to withdraw it later after a large undercurrent of resentment over charging people to visit their sick family members.
[Urban infill is creating all kinds of problems which aren’t addressed in this developers’ dream.]
Labors ties with developers are creating bad feelings, many home owners have been left feeling betrayed over infill and new developements where park and open spaces promised to the home buyers have been eaten up by more houses.
[There are more hospitals in the state than the RAH ]
Both the WCH (which is easily the worst run hospital in SA) and the QEH should be shut down and moved in with the new RAH which should be made bigger. They could sell off the WCH land which would be worth a fortune.
A little part of the QEH could be used for day surgery and long stay patients.
z
I agree with all your comments except the last. There is not zero water. There is zero political commitment to fixing the problem for the reasons you said.
[ bob1234
Posted Friday, December 11, 2009 at 3:53 pm | Permalink
who is bob1234?
Best of luck to you on that one ]
A concern troll that gets a bit snaky when called out; real identity; who knows and who cares.
[Jillian Whittaker
Posted Friday, December 11, 2009 at 10:08 pm | Permalink
I am surprised that people are taking the final figures on face value as a vindication of Mike Rann. Mike Rann has definitely fallen out of favour with many women as the demographic breakdown in the poll shows.]
With a poll of 661 people the demographic breakdowns isn’t worth much. I can’t understand why women should be more upset one way or the other, more puritan in their outlook. When it comes to your average sex scandal it takes two to tango, and one of the dancers is a women.
[I am surprised that people are taking the final figures on face value as a vindication of Mike Rann.]
How else can they be taken? A Premier endures weeks of “sex scandal”, then gets an increased poll rating. How is that not a vindication of Mike Rann?