Advertiser: 57-43 to Labor in SA

A poll by the Adelaide Advertiser has produced a counter-intuitive result, with Labor’s lead increasing in the wake of the Mike Rann sex allegations to 57-43, up from 55-45 at the previous survey of October 14. After distribution of the undecided, Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 43 per cent, the Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35 per cent and the Greens are up two to 10 per cent. The full set of results informs us that Labor’s two-party vote in both metropolitan (54-46) and non-metropolitan (55-45) areas is lower than the total, which obviously can’t be right. The former figure grants Labor less than half the minor party and independent preferences compared with the more normal two-thirds; a more plausible metropolitan two-party split would be 58-42 or 59-41. The sample is 661 respondents, which isn’t bad for a state poll, but there seems reason to believe The Advertiser’s in-house polling is not conducted with the expertise you would expect from a professional market research agency.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

109 comments on “Advertiser: 57-43 to Labor in SA”

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  1. Very good news. I was worried, there is still potential for worry, but so far so good!

    Green vote much higher since the last election too, consistent with all polls.

    Very happy ๐Ÿ™‚

  2. Oh yes bob we all remember how deeply worried you were about poor Mike Rann, so worried that you spent days gleefully retailing every bit of Murdoch press slime you could dig up and telling us that this would be the ruin of Rann. Try talking out of your other orifice.

  3. Largest poll from the advertiser for a while, if I put my conspiracy hat on I’d say they polled 330 people and decided the didn’t like the result.. Although with the hat off I’d say it’s a good sign they are taking polling a bit more seriously – only a bit though, still not distributing the undecideds and making silly errors such as the metro/rural split does make it hard to give to many brownie points out.

    However I do want to raise the rural vote question, while I havnt gone back and checked, most the polls have had labor equal or better in rural areas. Given labor hold only one rural seat out of 10 or so that is hard to believe. Either the advertiser pollsters only have phone numbers for port pirie or perhaps labor are doing quite well in the bush. You can brush off one advertiser poll if rural areas (with a sample size of no bigger than 200) but when they start lining up you gave to wonder.

    Regardless this is a huge boost for labor going into Xmas, we likely won’t see another poll till feb so that’s going to be hanging over the libs for atleast a month.

  4. [gleefully retailing every bit of Murdoch press slime you could dig up]

    I beg your pardon? Can you quote me just once where I took any bad news for Labor with glee?

    No, didn’t think you could, troll. I do think you should be more careful what you post Adam Carr/Psephos considering you’re a Labor staffer to David Feeney.

  5. [Regardless this is a huge boost for labor going into Xmas, we likely wonโ€™t see another poll till feb so thatโ€™s going to be hanging over the libs for atleast a month.]

    Newspoll is due at any time.

  6. True, although they might hold the final quarter figures over until closer to the election. Unless they do additional polling newspoll won’t publish again before the election, as it’s still in the first quarter. You would think they would increase their polling but it all costs money and is only SA…

    Ofcourse it’s likely any newspoll will have more or less the same result, the polls have been pretty stable.

  7. [although they might hold the final quarter figures over until closer to the election.]

    Based on previous Newspolls they only get quicker as the election comes. I also recall someone like Possum say one would be out in December. The last poll was July-August, they’re usually in 3 months blocks but that was a 2 month block, so really, the next one is bound to be out in the next week or two.

  8. And I wouldn’t put it past The Advertiser to pre-empt Newspoll by releasing theirs a day or two early. Or perhaps SA Newspoll is coming out in the wee hours of this morning ๐Ÿ™‚

  9. It’s hardly a surprising result.

    Rann’s a popular Premier who had, in the scheme of things, a particularly tame sex scandal. Who cares?

  10. [However I do want to raise the rural vote question, while I havnt gone back and checked, most the polls have had labor equal or better in rural areas. Given labor hold only one rural seat out of 10 or so that is hard to believe. Either the advertiser pollsters only have phone numbers for port pirie or perhaps labor are doing quite well in the bush. You can brush off one advertiser poll if rural areas (with a sample size of no bigger than 200) but when they start lining up you gave to wonder.]

    Good call – by my reckoning, Labor’s non-metropolitan 2PP vote in 2006 was 41.4 per cent, but the last two Advertiser polls have both had it at 55.

  11. I think they poll in a few of the big regional towns like Port Pirie, Whyalla and Mount Gambier and extrapolate that result for the rest of the country, which is plainly ridiculous.

    Parts of the Adelaide Hills and most of the Barossa Valley, to name just two places, are very conservative and churchy. They vote Liberal, Family First or conservative independent; they would never vote Labor in a blue fit. So while these results seem to show Ivan Venning losing Schubert or Mark Goldsworthy losing Kavel, realistically that’s not happening.

    I would be prepared to eat my hat if I’m wrong ๐Ÿ™‚

  12. Deserved poll results from what must surely be the best current state government in Australia, in my biased opinion (only with competition from Victoria, perhaps). It’s a sad state of affairs in NSW when at least 3 current SA government ministers would make more creditable premiers than Kristina Keneally.

    As for the country polling – they’d be better off doing electorate level polling for Frome, Stuart and Chaffey (preferably with NAMING the candidates this time !!). I count Mt Gambier as a lay-down liberal gain.

  13. [Good call โ€“ by my reckoning, Laborโ€™s non-metropolitan 2PP vote in 2006 was 41.4 per cent, but the last two Advertiser polls have both had it at 55.]

    I find this very hard to believe (that their support is actually that high that is). We’ll see though.

  14. The only slightly surprising aspect of the poll is Isobel Redmond’s ratings being much the same as Rann’s, although there are more undecideds.

    The fact that the numbers don’t add up is a bit concerning but it is the Tiser.

    And bob1234, in case you haven’t noticed it before Greg Kelton is Rann’s press secretary who masquerades as a Tiser journalist. If he ever writes any article that has bad news for Labor, there is always a co-author for the balance.

  15. I have no idea how the rural vote in SA is going but isn’t that academic? SA is a very urbanised electorate, with most of the seats in greater Adelaide and the hills. That is where Labor holds its seats. Unless opinion in thme changes, Rann will be relected, end of story. For the same reasons I agree with chinda that seats like Barossa being won by Labor are equally unlikely.

    I recall that two greek philosophers suggested before that the Rann assault and allegations would backfire and sure enough we were rIGHt. Hi fives Dio.

    Personally I think the current protests about the St Claire deal are a far more serious threat to the government than anything to do with Rann.

  16. I’m not even sure about that, Socrates. From what I gather on the ground, the people who are really geeing this St Clair issue up are Liberal members/voters and that there isn’t a groundswell of local opinion the noise seems to suggest.

    Same as any Advertiser online poll on any government issue. They get bombarded by Liberal Party staffers and supporters and the results are clearly not representative of opinions held by Joe Blow on the street.

    I guess the proof of the pudding will be in the March eating. I think it is in the electorate of Cheltenham and Jay Weatherill seems pretty popular locally, so if he gets a swing against the grain, so to speak, then you could say it was a genuine issue. Certainly he’s done nothing else wrong to annoy the voters.

  17. [I recall that two greek philosophers suggested before that the Rann assault and allegations would backfire and sure enough we were rIGHt. Hi fives Dio.]

    Yes Socrates, we were right but no-one will remember.

    I was talking to someone close to Atkinson’s office yesterday. Sounds like St Claire won’t provide a smoking gun for the Libs either. There might have been a few dodgy strings pulled but nothing illegal or actually corrupt. Everyone hates Atkinson anyway so a bit of damage to him won’t make much difference.

  18. I saw on the AdelaideNow website speculation that I’ve heard a few times from well-placed sources; Rann will leave about a year after winning the election and replace Mandy as Ambassador to Italy.

  19. Since Jay Weatherill was on 62.7% of the primary vote in Cheltenham last time, I don’t think he will be too worried by a few liberal leaning voters getting upset about St Clair (doesn’t have an “e” at the end by the way). In any case, Atkinson has been taking most of the political flak, which suits labor just fine. At the end of the day there is a narrative surrounding the whole project, so its not like its a nasty ‘government takes away park’ story.

  20. [Yes Socrates, we were right but no-one will remember. ]

    Dio
    your denial of the almost maniacal sledging of Rann is a joke.

    For a week there you and Bob tagged teamed with all manner of lurid innuendo.

    Besides being a spreader of gossip and malice, you now are attempting to rewrite history.

    Unfortunately for you, your travesty has been recorded for posterity.

  21. [For a week there you and Bob tagged teamed with all manner of lurid innuendo.]

    This just proves that you need to take your dress off and stop being so precious. Neither of us did anything of the sort.

    Independent thinking really gets up the nose of rusted Laborites doesn’t it? If it’s not from the book of Labor hackery, it’s not true/didn’t happen. Pathetic.

  22. More proof that sex scandals are good for Aussie political leaders?
    Or the good people of SA couldn’t give a **** what Mr Rann does in his private life, as long as he’s a competent state leader! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  23. Gusface

    Go back and find a single comment I made that says Rann was going to lose a significant number of votes (I think I said it would wash out at 1%).

    You are so biased and stupid that you can’t differentiate any commentary about a potential problem for Labor with the facts of a matter.

    You panic at any adverse Labor commentary and your very small brain shuts down in a spasm of cognitive dissonance.

  24. [Go back and find a single comment I made that says Rann was going to lose a significant number of votes (I think I said it would wash out at 1%).]

    Dio

    I will

    ๐Ÿ™‚

  25. We could recall the 1998 US Congressional elections as an example of voter response to ‘sex scandals’ here but this poll looks like random variance around a solid Labor advantage.

  26. [another fearless prediction of yours up in smoke]

    What did I predict precisely and can you quote me.

    Oh wait, you can’t!!!

    ๐Ÿ˜€ :kiss:

  27. [I wouldnโ€™t call you pro-Liberal, BUT you love to regurgitate any piece of scandal dished up by the Murdoch press.]

    I regurgitate articles from all corners of the spectrum. I don’t just stick to pieces that are pro-Labor… that’s Labor hackery, a job for Labor hacks. You’re that sort of a lackey. I’m not ๐Ÿ™‚

  28. Gus

    Just to save you some time so you don’t waste your day looking for something that doesn’t exist.

    [I doubt it will cost many votes, let alone the election.]

  29. bob, you routinely predicted this could/would have a big impact on Rann. That was before the Ms Chanelois even made her claims on that program. I recall you routinely stating that the court case with her husband, which you guessed would happen during the election campaign, would be highly damaging.

    I don’t think we should dwell on it but sometimes it’s best just to admit you were wrong and then move on.

  30. Dio, I back you up on this. I asked you about the issue you a few times and you made it clear to me more than once that you thought it would not have any real effect on Rann’s re -election chances.

  31. ltep, when did I say the court case would be highly damaging? It was always a question, never a statement. There is a massive difference between ‘is something highly damaging’ and ‘something is highly damaging’.

    Go ahead, try to quote me :kiss:

  32. [35 โ€“ ltep you are spot on re bobโ€™s response to Rannโ€™s difficulties.]

    Yet you can’t quote me. Amazing.

    More Labor hackery ๐Ÿ™‚

  33. I’m not going to get into a tedious argument bob. We all make our judgments. I made mine at the time of reading your comments and really do not care to trawl through pages and pages just to ‘prove a point’.

  34. gus,

    What you’ll prove is that bob is the concern troll we always believed it was. On the one hand saying, with hand on heart, that he is a loving supporter of Rann and the Government, on the other posting every link and comment by every spiv of the Murdoch empire and drooling at the lurid comments of Channel 7 and the less than credible Ms. Chantelois.

    He hasn’t fooled anyone except his pathetic self. You don’t need to keep repeating your loyalty and love unless you doubt them in yourself.

    Diogs just reverted to his inner fifteen year old with an earnest and prurient interest in peoples’ sex lives. This Rann episode wasn’t the biggest thing to happen to Adelaide this year, it was the only thing.

  35. I’m very interested to see how the honey in NSW is doing. I suspect that she will get an increase in the ALP vote. Hold onto your hats, this game aint over yet. A circle of friends has nicknamed her the MILF

  36. I’m interested to see how KKK is doing in NSW. I suspect her vote will have increased. Hold onto your hats, the ALP game aint over yet.

  37. These South Australian figures are incomprehensible for anyone living in NSW. It is as if South Australia were on another planet, not in another part of Australia.
    What is it with NSW?
    The Auditor-General has released a report on government advertising and found 2 of 4 campaigns breached guidelines established to ensure taxpayer’s money is not used for party political purposes, including inappropriate interference by staffers as to the content of the advertising.
    Is it just plain incompetence?
    Or is NSW just a very obedient state?

  38. [Iโ€™m interested to see how KKK is doing in NSW. I suspect her vote will have increased.]

    I wouldn’t hold my breath.

    [Hold onto your hats, the ALP game aint over yet.]

    The game was over months and months ago.

  39. I find it amazing how people just write someone off before they have been given a chance. I agree the NSW government is terminal but to write off a premier before he/she even has a chance to say or do anything is just plain ridiculous. Who knows she may save some furniture.

  40. [I find it amazing how people just write someone off before they have been given a chance. I agree the NSW government is terminal but to write off a premier before he/she even has a chance to say or do anything is just plain ridiculous. Who knows she may save some furniture.]

    And what a travesty it would be for NSW Labor as well as NSW should the incompetent inept mob apparently known as the NSW government be re-elected for another term. Any true blue Laborite who has the ability to break away from Labor hackery would see that a defeat is in the best long term interests of the party.

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