| HIGGINS | ||||
| # | % | SWING | 2PP | |
| O’Dwyer (LIB) | 34764 | 54.4% | 0.2% | 59.6% |
| Hamilton (GRN) | 20778 | 32.5% | 22.2% | 40.4% |
| Australian Sex Party | 2084 | 3.3% | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 311 | 0.5% | ||
| Australian Democrats | 1455 | 2.3% | 1.1% | |
| One Nation | 199 | 0.3% | ||
| Democratic Labor Party | 2452 | 3.8% | ||
| Independents | 1828 | 2.9% | ||
| TOTAL | 63871 | |||
| COUNTED: | 72.5% | |||
| BOOTHS (OF 38): | 38 | |||
| BRADFIELD | ||||
| # | % | SWING | 2PP | |
| Fletcher (LIB) | 39159 | 56.3% | -3.2% | 63.8% |
| Gemmell (GRN) | 17608 | 25.3% | 14.4% | 36.2% |
| Democratic Labor Party | 1477 | 2.1% | ||
| Australian Sex Party | 2222 | 3.2% | ||
| One Nation | 450 | 0.6% | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 561 | 0.8% | ||
| CCC | 702 | 1.0% | ||
| ENE | 719 | 1.0% | ||
| Independents/CDP | 6646 | 9.6% | ||
| TOTAL | 69544 | |||
| COUNTED: | 73.1% | |||
| BOOTHS (OF 40): | 40 | |||
Tuesday. 3726 postals from Bradfield, massively favouring the Liberals (75.4-24.6 on 2PP).
Sunday (9pm). Turnout on ordinary votes was 88.8% of the 2007 election in Higgins and 95.9% in Bradfield, compared with 89.3% at the Mayo by-election, 93.2% in Lyne and 89.4% in Gippsland. So it was actually quite high in Bradfield and only slightly below par in Higgins. Part of the reason in Higgins might be that it’s not a growth area. We could equally get a high number of pre-polls and postals bringing the number closer to average. I suspect we’ve seen half the pre-polls counted so far (the rest should come in quite quickly) and a third of the postals (which should dribble in over the next week).
Sunday (7.30pm). 2938 postals from Higgins added. Error in my Bradfield table corrected.
Sunday (4.30pm). 5841 pre-polls from Higgins and 3765 from Bradfield added. These have been particularly strong for Kelly O’Dwyer, increasing her two-party margin from 8.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent. Special hospital team (about 500 votes) also added from Bradfield; not yet available from Higgins.
Sunday (early). The AEC has seen fit to publish booth results, so too late to be any use, I hereby reinstate the table. Also, here’s a revised version of my regional Higgins breakdown. I’ve abolished the distinction between the “pink-green” area of Prahran-Windsor and “red” Carnegie – notwithstanding that there’s some distance between the two, the figures were near identical. The other distinction is between “deep blue” Toorak-Kooyong and the “light blue” bulk of the electorate.
| LIB | CHANGE | GRN | LIB 2PP | SWING | |
| Light Blue | 52.76% | -1.2% | 24.4% | 58.5% | 1.1% |
| Deep Blue | 61.13% | -2.9% | 19.8% | 65.3% | -0.7% |
| Marginal | 41.03% | 2.1% | 27.9% | 48.6% | 6.8% |
And here’s the Bradfield breakdown, the “marginal” area being what I described previously as “pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby”.
| LIB | CHANGE | GRN | LIB 2PP | SWING | |
| Deep Blue | 58.0% | -5.6% | 25.2% | 66.0% | -1.7% |
| Marginal | 48.4% | 0.2% | 28.9% | 57.1% | 4.1% |
The general impression is that while the Greens absorbed most of the missing Labor vote across the board, some of it leaked either to the Liberals or to other minor parties (the DLP in particular polled 6.6 per cent in the marginal areas of Higgins, and scored double the vote in the marginal areas of Bradfield compared with the rest of the electorate) and thence to the Liberals as preferences. This counterbalanced a fall in the Liberal primary vote in the deep blue areas of both electorates, which proved nowhere near the magnitude required to put them in danger. It’s interesting to note that this fall was lower in Higgins than in Bradfield, which it’s tempting to put down to resistance to Clive Hamilton among those at the highest end of the income scale.
9.20pm. I’ve performed a similar exercise in Bradfield. There are marginal pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby. These areas swung to the Liberals 4.7 per cent in two-party terms. However, the wealthy Liberal heart of the electorate, from Killara north through St Ives, swung 5.1 per cent to the Greens.
8.40pm. Psephos in comments notes the trend detectable from Higgins in the table below (which I’m continuing to update as the last few booths come in) is reflected in Bradfield: “Hornsby Central, Labor’s best booth in the seat: Liberal primary vote up 5.9%.”
8.20pm. I’ll keep that coming in tabular form. “Light blue” zone is the bulk of the electorate; “deep blue” the riverfront from South Yarra through Toorak to Kooyong; “pink-green” Prahran/Windsor; “red” the Carnegie area.
| LIB 2PP SWING | BOOTHS REPORTING | |
| Light blue zone | 0.9% | 20 out of 21 |
| Deep blue zone | -0.8% | 6 out of 6 |
| Pink-green zone | 6.3% | 6 out of 6 |
| Red zone | 7.1% | 3 out of 3 |
8.02pm. While I’ve been quiet, I’ve been calculating the Higgins booth results provided by Antony into four zones. While this has been happening the Liberal-Greens margin has blown out to 9 per cent. All four zones have swung to the Liberals: the normally Labor-voting area in the south-east around Carnegie by 9.3 per cent; posh Toorak/Kooyong has swung 1.7 per cent; pink-green Prahran/Windsor 4.3 per cent; and the middle-Liberal balance, from Armadale to Glen Iris and Camberwell to Malvern, by 1.1 per cent. That’s assuming my calculations are correct, which I can’t state with total confidence.
7.38pm. Twelve booths now in from Higgins, swing steady at 5.4 per cent, Kelly home and hosed. Props though to the 400 or so voters of Toorak West for the short-lived entertainment they provided.
7.32pm. Another booth pushes Liberal two-party lead in Higgins to 5.4 per cent. Antony has abandoned commentary, but if he hadn’t I’m guessing he would be calling it now.
7.30pm. No alarms for the Liberals in Bradfield: projected margin 12 per cent.
7.28pm. Antony nonetheless says Higgins “can’t be called yet”.
7.27pm. Antony Green has eight booths in from Higgins and 9.2 per cent counted – O’Dwyer with an almost certainly sufficient 4.8 per cent two-party lead.
7.22pm. Possum, who took about 10 seconds to call the US election for Obama, says on Twitter: “Shorter Higgins – Greens went well with wealthy Lib voters but not so good with middle income Libs. Failed with ALP voters. game over”.
7.19pm. I’ve abandoned the table – it is not possible to keep up with the furious number crunching I needed to do to keep track as each new booth reported. Head to the ABC for elucidation on what’s happening.
7.15pm. That Toorak West result looking quirkier after Gardiner booth reports, but it’s still close. Having trouble keeping up due to AEC failure to report individual booths, so double check anything you see above.
7.13pm. Better result for Liberals in Higgins from Kooyong Park.
7.05pm. Both the booths have 2PP votes in, so my 2PP figures are now less speculative.
7.02pm. First Higgins booth is super wealthy, super Liberal Toorak West, and it shows a very interesting plunge in the Liberal vote.
6.49pm. Unless I’m mistaken – please let it be so – the AEC are not providing individual polling booth figures, which means I might as well pack up and go home.
6.46pm. Lady Davidson Hospital booth in from Bradfield – only 293 votes, but no evidence of a remarkable result.
6.36pm. Still nothing. These are urban electorates so there are no small booths that report quickly; the large number of candidates, particularly in Bradfield, might also be slowing things down.
6.20pm. Until I get notional 2PP counts, my 2PP will be based on the following preference estimates:
HIGGINS: ASP 80-20 to Greens; LDP 80-20 to Liberal; Dems 70-30 to Greens; ONP and DLP 80-20 to Liberal; all others 55-45 to Liberal.
BRADFIELD: DLP 80-20 to Liberal; ASP 80-20 to Greens; ONP and LDP 80-20 to Liberal; CCC and ENE 50-50; all others 75-25 to Liberal.
# and % primary vote figures are raw; primary vote swing and 2PP figures are based on booth matching.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections. First figures should be in in about 20 minutes.
[I wouldn’t really trust a poll after what has happened in the last 2 weeks]
After Newspoll’s rogue shenanigans I don’t trust them any more anyway. However, being a sad, pathetic poll addict I am still staying up late for the result 🙁
ACN is the new benchmark IMO
Peacock got a bounce, so did Downer, so did Latham…
After 3 years of Rudd, the ALP side is still so damn nervous about polls!
Turnbull’s ratings were so low that it was as if voters had just switched off. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Abbott’s preferred P.M. figure is substantially higher than Turnbull’s, simply due to the novelty of having someone new.
I agree, I reckon 54/46 or maybe even a bit more of a honeymoon for Abbott with a 53/47.
But the real figures that I would be most interested in at this stage of the electoral cycle are the PPM figures. Around 60/20 for Rudd…sweet! 😉
Well this run of ALP poll leads had to win at some point and i actually think Abbott may connect with the voters better than Turnbull, i think the Nationals should drop Truss for Barnaby.
I was thinking about the claims about Abbott and his Womanfolk issues and i suspect he may go okay with Women for there are several things that women like in a man and Abbott ticks those boxes.
Women like a man who create a feeling
Women like a man who has a set of princlpes and has a view that he is happy to express
Women like a man that is fit and healthy
Women like a man that is successful
Now Abbott ticks most of those boxes, the problem for Tony Abbott will be the first one for Women may react to his views with anger, hate or disgust and go towards the ALP, all they may find that because he is a man that speaks his mind then he may become popular.
Now a few cavets Abbott could do a Latham and change his natural behavior and come off as fake, or we may see a repeat of the carry we saw in 2007 with Abbott was late to a debate with Nicola Roxon.
Abbott will not be popular with younger liberal minded women but then again many of them live in Higgins and Bradfield and the the Women of rual and regional Australia tend to view the world differently than the women of inner Melbourne and inner Sydney.
One other thing about Women and i have long suspected this and that is Women tend to be the bulk of the aspriantional voters and they tend to be the swing voters out there in marginal seat land.
[So I wouldn’t be surprised if Abbott’s preferred P.M. figure is substantially higher than Turnbull’s, simply due to the novelty of having someone new]
Agreed
Abbott will probably score well. Even though he is depicted as “mad” and has certainly shown an intolerant streak, he does come across as real-life. His idiosyncratic quality may work well for him. After all, if there is a criticism of Rudd Labor that even supporters make, it is that Labor is too “well-controlled”, “well-tempered”, “managed”. I personally do not subscribe to these criticisms, but one thing you can say about Abbott is that he is not micro-managed.
Your turnout percentages don’t tally with the AEC website according to my quick analysis.
win = end
Abbott will get a bump, but once he has to start coming out with policy (particularly on CC) it will collapse in a screaming heap.
By the way, for those interested, Bob is NO Liberal. He is Greener than the grass on a football field on grand final day.
I’m sure all those people who are saying that whatever the Newspoll shows that you shouldn’t read too much into it are taking their own advice and going to bed early. 😉
If it hasn’t been done already…
Wang1 Wang1
This site can’t do characters but if you
look up the pinyin wang1 here (it is an expanse of water)
http://www.mandarintools.com/
This is the sound
http://www.mandarintools.com/sounds/wang1.aif
briefly
[This is a fundamentally creative tension, bringing the attention of parties again and again to the issues and events that effect the public at large and generating new responses.]
Like dancers around a maypole. Same maypole, 2 sets of uniforms 🙂
[I’m sure all those people who are saying that whatever the Newspoll shows that you shouldn’t read too much into it are taking their own advice and going to bed early.]
Addiction is a funny thing 🙂
[I’m sure all those people who are saying that whatever the Newspoll shows that you shouldn’t read too much into it are taking their own advice and going to bed early. ]
Doesn’t mean I’m not interested in the result. This is poll bludger after all.
“1261
Centre
By the way, for those interested, Bob is NO Liberal. He is Greener than the grass on a football field on grand final day.”
He seems to have a lot of Liberal DNA in his politics, Centre, reflected in his repetitious, disingenuous and entirely gratuitous snottiness towards those of a Labor persuasion.
crikey whitey…
I love it when you post, remind’s me of the old day’s ’round here’
Hopefully the place will revert back to the good times. Although I expect the the “….” best not talked about types will win out for the next few months.
briefly, that’s Bob *shrugs shoulders*
[Like dancers around a maypole. Same maypole, 2 sets of uniforms]
Morris dancers? Who gets to wear the bells and funny hats? Barnaby Joyce?
Well I understand that new leaders are meant to get a poll boost ‘honeymoon’ and the caution of bludgers go for 54. But the Newspoll Nielsen ER gave us 56 & 57 & 58 and since then there has been a bunch of liberal turmoil. Who knows how the general public viewed those goings on? What messages they took out of it and the defeat of the ETS.
I can’t see why there would be a major change from last week given the chaos and if Abbott has always been the last choice as wanted Opposition leader according to polls I can’t see why he would make a major dent in the TPP of Labor.
So I would predict a 57/58. And approval/disapproval rating for Abbott of 35/25.
Just so I can be shown to be totally wrong.
[Morris dancers? Who gets to wear the bells and funny hats? Barnaby Joyce?]
Wrong period. They didn’t know what a propellor was in those days, and Barnaby would need one on any hat he wears 🙂
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/03/17/newspoll-59-41-2/all-comments/#comments
If it works.
[Centre……..briefly, that’s Bob *shrugs shoulders*]
I am unconvinced….perhaps he wears spray-on virtue.
[ACN is the new benchmark IMO]
Why forgive Nielsen this rogue 52-48 result, but not Newspoll this one?
Keith is not my real name 1268
Excellent, Keith.
A former partner of that real name earned my displeasure.
You do not.
An injection of levity never goes astray.
I enjoy your appreciation.
Mind, you are encouraging me!!
I think the Pollytrend is the new benchmark 🙂
[Why forgive Nielsen this rogue 52-48 result, but not Newspoll this one?]
I haven’t forgiven ACN for that, but Newspoll’s rogue was the most recent 😉
A rogue is a rogue there is nothing to forgive. It is not the poll that is the problem but the way the media used what was most likely a rogue.
Nielson, of course, was also furthest from the mark for ‘the big event’.
[A rogue is a rogue there is nothing to forgive. It is not the poll that is the problem but the way the media used what was most likely a rogue.]
In particular how the poll’s owner used and abused it
Trying to draw a consensus from the over 1,200 posts on the by-election results the best I can do is:-
1. The poll results are inconclusive leaving it open for spin-meisters to put whatever spin they choose to put on the results.
2. Spin-meisters have the choice of-
a. A shocking perforance by the Greens/A brilliant result for Liberals, or
b. A good result for the Greens/A disappointing Liberal performance.
and
c. A brilliant tactical decision by the ALP not to contest the seats, or
d. The Rudd ALP are scared of the polls
and
e. The correct pronunciation of the Panda is Wang Wang, or
f. The correct pronunciaton is Wong Wong.
Have a nice day everyone. I am going to bed.
It is only news for a day or two then forgotten…Liberals elected replaced Costello and Nelson, news not that big for the general public.
lol j-v @ 1272.
Barnaby is a beer-garden polly…..loud, exaggerated, the grog doing all the thinking…
[He seems to have a lot of Liberal DNA in his politics, Centre, reflected in his repetitious, disingenuous and entirely gratuitous snottiness towards those of a Labor persuasion.]
Are you really that ignorant that you’re yet to understand modern Labor will receive criticism from the left as well as the right? Jeez Louise..
I think criticism is only to be expected. It is just so tedious and destructive when it becomes [repetitious, disingenuous and entirely gratuitous snottiness].
Apologies for the formatting errors
“William Bowe
Posted Sunday, December 6, 2009 at 11:15 pm | Permalink
ACN is the new benchmark IMO
Why forgive Nielsen this rogue 52-48 result, but not Newspoll this one?”
Whatever William bets, I’ll go double 😉
[I think criticism is only to be expected.]
Indeed. That’s why this is Labor hackery rubbish:
[He seems to have a lot of Liberal DNA in his politics, Centre, reflected in his repetitious, disingenuous and entirely gratuitous snottiness towards those of a Labor persuasion.]
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/03/17/newspoll-59-41-2/all-comments/#comments
Seems to work. Checkers in will read some vigorous argument.
I have not changed my mind. About Kev and stuff.
Though now I wonder about Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs well being.
as I say, tedious
Peter Young, are you the Peter Young who was the Labor candidate for Lowe in 1969? (I guess you’d be getting on a bit now.)
[ Barnaby is a beer-garden polly…..loud, exaggerated, the grog doing all the thinking… ]
Yep. But let him run with the rope. Lets just see where and how he goes.
Let him hang himself. Doubt if it will take very long.
Abbott will get a bit of a honeymoon over the summer (unless Rudd actually does save the world at Kobnhavn), but he will be cut to pieces next year when battle resumes. He’s shallow, careless, ignorant, undisciplined, intellectually lazy, and never knows to when stop until he seriously offends someone. He’s repeated this pattern over and over, and he’s too to change now.
“and he’s too to change now.” = “and he’s too old to change now.”
Newspoll 56-44
56-44
http://mumble.com.au/
Now you can go to bed!
No differences