Higgins and Bradfield by-elections live

HIGGINS
# % SWING 2PP
O’Dwyer (LIB) 34764 54.4% 0.2% 59.6%
Hamilton (GRN) 20778 32.5% 22.2% 40.4%
Australian Sex Party 2084 3.3%
Liberal Democrats 311 0.5%
Australian Democrats 1455 2.3% 1.1%
One Nation 199 0.3%
Democratic Labor Party 2452 3.8%
Independents 1828 2.9%
TOTAL 63871
COUNTED: 72.5%
BOOTHS (OF 38): 38
BRADFIELD
# % SWING 2PP
Fletcher (LIB) 39159 56.3% -3.2% 63.8%
Gemmell (GRN) 17608 25.3% 14.4% 36.2%
Democratic Labor Party 1477 2.1%
Australian Sex Party 2222 3.2%
One Nation 450 0.6%
Liberal Democrats 561 0.8%
CCC 702 1.0%
ENE 719 1.0%
Independents/CDP 6646 9.6%
TOTAL 69544
COUNTED: 73.1%
BOOTHS (OF 40): 40

Tuesday. 3726 postals from Bradfield, massively favouring the Liberals (75.4-24.6 on 2PP).

Sunday (9pm). Turnout on ordinary votes was 88.8% of the 2007 election in Higgins and 95.9% in Bradfield, compared with 89.3% at the Mayo by-election, 93.2% in Lyne and 89.4% in Gippsland. So it was actually quite high in Bradfield and only slightly below par in Higgins. Part of the reason in Higgins might be that it’s not a growth area. We could equally get a high number of pre-polls and postals bringing the number closer to average. I suspect we’ve seen half the pre-polls counted so far (the rest should come in quite quickly) and a third of the postals (which should dribble in over the next week).

Sunday (7.30pm). 2938 postals from Higgins added. Error in my Bradfield table corrected.

Sunday (4.30pm). 5841 pre-polls from Higgins and 3765 from Bradfield added. These have been particularly strong for Kelly O’Dwyer, increasing her two-party margin from 8.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent. Special hospital team (about 500 votes) also added from Bradfield; not yet available from Higgins.

Sunday (early). The AEC has seen fit to publish booth results, so too late to be any use, I hereby reinstate the table. Also, here’s a revised version of my regional Higgins breakdown. I’ve abolished the distinction between the “pink-green” area of Prahran-Windsor and “red” Carnegie – notwithstanding that there’s some distance between the two, the figures were near identical. The other distinction is between “deep blue” Toorak-Kooyong and the “light blue” bulk of the electorate.

LIB CHANGE GRN LIB 2PP SWING
Light Blue 52.76% -1.2% 24.4% 58.5% 1.1%
Deep Blue 61.13% -2.9% 19.8% 65.3% -0.7%
Marginal 41.03% 2.1% 27.9% 48.6% 6.8%

And here’s the Bradfield breakdown, the “marginal” area being what I described previously as “pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby”.

LIB CHANGE GRN LIB 2PP SWING
Deep Blue 58.0% -5.6% 25.2% 66.0% -1.7%
Marginal 48.4% 0.2% 28.9% 57.1% 4.1%

The general impression is that while the Greens absorbed most of the missing Labor vote across the board, some of it leaked either to the Liberals or to other minor parties (the DLP in particular polled 6.6 per cent in the marginal areas of Higgins, and scored double the vote in the marginal areas of Bradfield compared with the rest of the electorate) and thence to the Liberals as preferences. This counterbalanced a fall in the Liberal primary vote in the deep blue areas of both electorates, which proved nowhere near the magnitude required to put them in danger. It’s interesting to note that this fall was lower in Higgins than in Bradfield, which it’s tempting to put down to resistance to Clive Hamilton among those at the highest end of the income scale.

9.20pm. I’ve performed a similar exercise in Bradfield. There are marginal pockets on the edges of the electorate in the north-west at Asquith and Hornsby and in the south at Chatswood and Willoughby. These areas swung to the Liberals 4.7 per cent in two-party terms. However, the wealthy Liberal heart of the electorate, from Killara north through St Ives, swung 5.1 per cent to the Greens.

8.40pm. Psephos in comments notes the trend detectable from Higgins in the table below (which I’m continuing to update as the last few booths come in) is reflected in Bradfield: “Hornsby Central, Labor’s best booth in the seat: Liberal primary vote up 5.9%.”

8.20pm. I’ll keep that coming in tabular form. “Light blue” zone is the bulk of the electorate; “deep blue” the riverfront from South Yarra through Toorak to Kooyong; “pink-green” Prahran/Windsor; “red” the Carnegie area.

LIB 2PP SWING BOOTHS REPORTING
Light blue zone 0.9% 20 out of 21
Deep blue zone -0.8% 6 out of 6
Pink-green zone 6.3% 6 out of 6
Red zone 7.1% 3 out of 3

8.02pm. While I’ve been quiet, I’ve been calculating the Higgins booth results provided by Antony into four zones. While this has been happening the Liberal-Greens margin has blown out to 9 per cent. All four zones have swung to the Liberals: the normally Labor-voting area in the south-east around Carnegie by 9.3 per cent; posh Toorak/Kooyong has swung 1.7 per cent; pink-green Prahran/Windsor 4.3 per cent; and the middle-Liberal balance, from Armadale to Glen Iris and Camberwell to Malvern, by 1.1 per cent. That’s assuming my calculations are correct, which I can’t state with total confidence.

7.38pm. Twelve booths now in from Higgins, swing steady at 5.4 per cent, Kelly home and hosed. Props though to the 400 or so voters of Toorak West for the short-lived entertainment they provided.

7.32pm. Another booth pushes Liberal two-party lead in Higgins to 5.4 per cent. Antony has abandoned commentary, but if he hadn’t I’m guessing he would be calling it now.

7.30pm. No alarms for the Liberals in Bradfield: projected margin 12 per cent.

7.28pm. Antony nonetheless says Higgins “can’t be called yet”.

7.27pm. Antony Green has eight booths in from Higgins and 9.2 per cent counted – O’Dwyer with an almost certainly sufficient 4.8 per cent two-party lead.

7.22pm. Possum, who took about 10 seconds to call the US election for Obama, says on Twitter: “Shorter Higgins – Greens went well with wealthy Lib voters but not so good with middle income Libs. Failed with ALP voters. game over”.

7.19pm. I’ve abandoned the table – it is not possible to keep up with the furious number crunching I needed to do to keep track as each new booth reported. Head to the ABC for elucidation on what’s happening.

7.15pm. That Toorak West result looking quirkier after Gardiner booth reports, but it’s still close. Having trouble keeping up due to AEC failure to report individual booths, so double check anything you see above.

7.13pm. Better result for Liberals in Higgins from Kooyong Park.

7.05pm. Both the booths have 2PP votes in, so my 2PP figures are now less speculative.

7.02pm. First Higgins booth is super wealthy, super Liberal Toorak West, and it shows a very interesting plunge in the Liberal vote.

6.49pm. Unless I’m mistaken – please let it be so – the AEC are not providing individual polling booth figures, which means I might as well pack up and go home.

6.46pm. Lady Davidson Hospital booth in from Bradfield – only 293 votes, but no evidence of a remarkable result.

6.36pm. Still nothing. These are urban electorates so there are no small booths that report quickly; the large number of candidates, particularly in Bradfield, might also be slowing things down.

6.20pm. Until I get notional 2PP counts, my 2PP will be based on the following preference estimates:

HIGGINS: ASP 80-20 to Greens; LDP 80-20 to Liberal; Dems 70-30 to Greens; ONP and DLP 80-20 to Liberal; all others 55-45 to Liberal.

BRADFIELD: DLP 80-20 to Liberal; ASP 80-20 to Greens; ONP and LDP 80-20 to Liberal; CCC and ENE 50-50; all others 75-25 to Liberal.

# and % primary vote figures are raw; primary vote swing and 2PP figures are based on booth matching.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections. First figures should be in in about 20 minutes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,328 comments on “Higgins and Bradfield by-elections live”

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  1. Stan@1185:

    [Bob its your perogative to keep posting but mate I’ve stopped reading them.]

    I stopped a while ago, as have others. There is no point in reading repetitive drivel.

  2. There is a useful function the Greens perform for Labor (besides delivering preferences). They drain leftists out of Labor, who if left within Labor would always try to pull the party to the left and make it unelectable.

  3. I agree stan @ 1189.

    Abbott has already made declarations that will make it almost impossible for him to come up with a credible CC policy. First, he ruled out any kind of carbon tax or cap-and-trade system. There is almost no-one anywhere who thinks it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions without either one or both of these measures.

    And for good measure, Abbott was in the news today, visiting a coal mine declaring coal mining jobs had to be protected. So he is turning the coalition into the party that will not change anything – a party not of reform but of resistance to change.

    This defies the steady stream of evidence that CC is already advancing much faster than predicted. Abbott is trying to turn his party into a voice for doing nothing on CC. This is directly contrary to the views of most voters and will come to be seen as policy failure. It is like choosing not to have policies on the economy, public health, foreign relations and defense.

    Abbott will be remembered as trying to get away with the policy equivalent of a budgie-smuggling exercise, showing off his bare chest and declaring, “Look at me! No Tax!” Abbott Brand: the surf-ware of Australian government.

  4. Dio

    Only just saw that post of yours at 874 and the link to Poss’s excellent post back in October that highlighted that a majority of Australians are now IN FAVOUR of nuclear power. So what is Labor and the Green’s excuse? Are these people ignorant? Do the Greens and Labor know better? Do most Australains just not understand the dangers in the latest generations of reactors that have never had an accident?

    I also saw GB’s “NIMBY” argument against nuclear power. GB, if that is truly the reason Labor opposes nuclear power, then why does it approve building new detention centres, prisons, freeways, pulp mills and yes, coal-fired power stations. More people die in each of those than are likely to ever be killed by a GenIII nuclear power plant. There are lots of things people don’t like in their back yard. So just build it away from a city. Dio suggested Port Stanvac or Port Pirie in SA. I’d add Port Augusta, sites on teh coast near La Trobe Valley in Vic, and Jervis Bay. Problem solved, if you are serious about CC. If the strategy is get the ETS through first then switch to nuclear later my humble apology. Truble is, when you just try to trick people you risk failing with both objectives. The only real issue with Gen III nuclear is cost.

  5. PC@1203:

    [There is a useful function the Greens perform for Labor (besides delivering preferences). They drain leftists out of Labor, who if left within Labor would always try to pull the party to the left and make it unelectable.]

    Good point, I hadn’t thought of that. But there are not enough of them to make that sort of difference, surely?

    On a similar theme, if Abbott drags the party to the right, Kev can move some of his policies further to the right, occupying ground formerly held by the libs, and further alienating the libs from the voting public.

    Then again, the elephant in the room is that pretty soon the BOP is going to be held by the greens. To be frank, I think that Labor is better off negotiating with a Malcolm Turnbull led Liberal party than a Bob Brown Greens party if they want to get legislation through. Though possibly marginally better negotiating with the Greens than with an Abbott led Liberal/National party.

    We live in interesting times.

  6. Socrates@1206:

    [I also saw GB’s “NIMBY” argument against nuclear power. GB, if that is truly the reason Labor opposes nuclear power, then why does it approve building new detention centres, prisons, freeways, pulp mills and yes, coal-fired power stations. More people die in each of those than are likely to ever be killed by a GenIII nuclear power plant.]

    Let us assume for the moment that your argument is correct.

    Logic has almost nothing to do with politics. What is important is the reaction of the people to the news of the day however it is promulgated, and the advertisements they see from both sides of the political fence.

  7. VP, from your link. These are the three possibilities:

    ??(WANG WANG) – (surname); expanse of water; ooze

    ?? (Wang Wang) – net; network

    ???Wang Wang? – prosperous; flourishing; to prosper; to flourish

    I hope the Chinese characters come out, this is the first time I embed the Chinese characters on PB.

    But they are all pronounce Wang Wang.

  8. don
    [if Abbott drags the party to the right, Kev can move some of his policies further to the right, occupying ground formerly held by the libs, and further alienating the libs from the voting public].
    Do you feel no unease in your core when you say that?
    So it doesn’t matter how right-wing ‘some of his policies’ are, as long as the ALP keeps the Libs out of contention. Is that a coherent and principled political position, or is it just party pragmatism in pursuit of power for its own sake?

    Dear oh dear, whatever happened to the light on the hill 🙁

  9. Yeah a majority in favour on nuclear power until you tell them where they will be built and how many we need. If as Abbott and deniers think that they can win on a scare campaign about CPRS and ETS then the ALP will raise their scare campaign with the mother of all campaigns against nuclear power stations. In the end the byzantium machinations of ETS which nobody will understand will wilt against the probabilty of everyone glowing in the dark with nuclear power.

  10. JV 1211 – perhaps the light is still on the hill but the party is heading off looking for redemption somewhere in the gloom.

  11. Wakefield
    That’s for sure. The poor light must be feeling a bit lonely up there these days, with no-one keening toward it.
    Otherwise, perhaps the light had to be removed because there was a danger it could start a fire. Pragmatic justifications abound in the party these days:-)

  12. [The lack of pragmatism will dash the Abbott Liberals and the Greens hopes of electoral gain in 2010.]

    Err, electoral gain is the sole balance of power. And the Greens will hold it, even Labor hacks are admitting that now.

  13. don 1208

    Your point is all too true. Rudd is avery astute politician; that is already obvious. His government has also been very competent through the GFC, and deserves to get relected. But CC is an issue that won’t go away in the near future. He will have to deal with this; the ETS alone isn’t enough.

    BTW for those advocating solar-thermal, here is another detaield article at Barry Brooks blog that explains the scaling problems.

    Xanthippe Rulez (but is also a bit bored of folding washing).

    … I better go and help Xanthippe!

  14. [Only just saw that post of yours at 874 and the link to Poss’s excellent post back in October that highlighted that a majority of Australians are now IN FAVOUR of nuclear power. So what is Labor and the Green’s excuse? Are these people ignorant? Do the Greens and Labor know better? Do most Australains just not understand the dangers in the latest generations of reactors that have never had an accident?]

    Soc

    Until the cabinet agrees to talk about nuclear it is a dead issue.
    Until then save your breath,cos the arguments have been done to death.
    The only “gamechanger” would be the T ring becoming commercially viable.
    🙂

  15. I wonder how Green hacks will deal with the communistic Lee Rhianon taking over leadership of the party when she is elected? Will the Green hacks be happy or will the Green hacks be not so happy?

  16. Wakefield, jv, as I’m a Liberal I’m coming from a completely different point of view to you guys.

    Your observations about Labor moving to the Right, however, do remind of something I’ve been pondering since pretty much the last election.

    Do a hypothetical. Suppose that Rudd and co are so successful at marginalising the Liberals (with the Liberals’ help, eg electing Tony as Leader) that Labor completely owns the “centre” (whatever that word means, but stick with me). Say Labor gets to 60% or more, every election.

    What will happen then? Will business just say “oh, the party we used to support is now useless, so we’re going to ignore politics from now on?”. Of course not, they would move in on Labor. The ALP would cease to be recognisable to some of its most ardent stalwarts.

    Business already gives a lot of time and money to Labor. But that’s nothing compared to what you would see once the Liberals had been formally pronounced “dead, never to return”.

    I’m not sure what all this proves, and it’s definitely just idle speculation, but I think it’s quite interesting to ponder what a completely unassailable Labor Party could look like twenty years from now.

  17. [I think it’s quite interesting to ponder what a completely unassailable Labor Party could look like twenty years from now.]

    One possible answer to this is: the NSW Right.

  18. [Logic has almost nothing to do with politics. What is important is the reaction of the people to the news of the day however it is promulgated, and the advertisements they see from both sides of the political fence.]
    This seems to be conceding that leadership has nothing to do with politics. Political leaders are just supposed to follow the whims of the majority of the electorate and have no responsibility to challenge peoples’ assumptions and inform them of the environmental and climatic consequences of “business as usual” or “tiny, tiny steps” of reform.

  19. Vortex = 1218

    Why do you have a fixation with the leadership of the Greens ?

    When do you expect Bob Brown will retire ? Why is it so vitally important to contemplate the next leader of the Greens at the present time ?

  20. Vortex your efforts to mimic bob1234 are bound to be counter productive. Since the Greens have a fairly wide range of views on most issues finding a Greens hack would be a tough ask.
    With Lee Rhiannon – shall we return to requiring children to overthrow their parents – wasn’t there some fairly bad examples of this in “ancient” times.

  21. Hi Dyno. I fear it would look a lot like what the political carcass formerly known as the NSW ALP looks like. Jobs for mates, deals for vested interests, etc. Democracy has got a lot of problems, but at least it ensures (given fair elections) that governments that get comfortable, complacent and ultimately corrupt get kicked out.

  22. from Mumble:
    [You would not believe what happened just now!

    A truck hurtled past my home; it was on its way to the Australian newspaper. A package dropped out, which I picked up. It read ‘Results of Newspoll conducted 4-6 December’.

    Makes for interesting reading, but … embargoed until midnight.

    Will post then. At midnight tonight.]
    http://mumble.com.au/?p=1116

  23. dyno 1219. Interesting thoughts. Labor seems to be fairly poor at dealing with business. Its often the latest get rich types who are attracted to the Labor party because the traditional business people are rather rusted on to Libs and defend their patch.
    Experience in all States over the last 25 years at least with Labor governments and property developers certainly suggests a real concern already. You’re not suggesting it could get worse are you?

  24. [Democracy has got a lot of problems, but at least it ensures (given fair elections) that governments that get comfortable, complacent and ultimately corrupt get kicked out.]

    Good point PC. Democracy isn’t just about a contest of ideas.

  25. Dyno
    [The ALP would cease to be recognisable to some of its most ardent stalwarts.]
    Good discusison point.
    It would, but I believe it already has. One cannot compare the policies of the current government to those of even a few years ago. The issue is as don characterised it earlier – each of the two major parties vying for the same middle-swingers. Each trying to bump the other further left or right to open up demographic ‘ground’.

    I know this will tire some of the regulars, but it is simply the result of our redundant and anachronistic electoral system of one member per district. You end up with two centrist parties, and everyone else – the smaller parties get no chance of taking part in government. Worst example at present: NSW. Thinking NSW voters would walk a long way for a different voting system so the real choice isn’t Lib or Lab at present.

    All of this discussion is further proof that the differences between the parties are narrowing, despite the ascension of Abbott. If the Libs lurch right, so does Labor, and the ‘middle ground’ is also moved further right.

  26. [You’re not suggesting it could get worse are you?]

    Not worse than the NSW State Govt, I wouldn’t think, Wakefield. Ultimately there has to be a point at which the people will cry “enough”. Notwithstanding the uninspiring performance of NSW Liberals I think that point is going to come in March 2011. And I would like to think that Australians are sufficiently contrarian that we could never have one party araldited to the Treasury benches for as many decades as happened in Japan.

    Nevertheless, I think your point about the pursuit of power for its own sake is valid. This is a dangerous practice.

  27. Parramatta Centrist – 1226

    Your comments are spot on.

    NSW Labor is the Inconvenient Truth for Rudd and it seems he is in denial about it.

    Remember Kristina Keneally is nobody’s puppet (so we know cos she tells us so).

  28. [Its what ultimately got to Howard]

    Possibly. Certainly a more dispassionate view in 2006 would have been “I’ve done all I can, time for someone else to have a go”. Bet he wishes he’d retired then!

  29. [I think it’s quite interesting to ponder what a completely unassailable Labor Party could look like twenty years from now]

    Well, its unlikely they’d still be in power. Who knows really. It took only 3 years for the ALP to take power after the debarcle that was Latham, so anything is possible.

  30. For those of us interested in fairy dust, I just watched Heston Blumenthal on SBS, doing his interpretation of a Victorian menu, based on what he thought Alice in Wonderland and the Mock Turtle enjoyed. Reading old texts and so on.

    Including at the last, absinthe infused jelly, with appropriate vibratory effects, to overcome female hysteria.

    Which mention implies nothing at all, but the whole thing was hugely amusing.

    A pertinent diversion from the last few weeks.

    It seems that this was the first of a series of six.

  31. Dyno

    You well remeber the argy bargy before 2007 election,the one thing was the BH turning on howard.
    from memeory even the CWA was agin him.
    To stir up such passions aside from “worstchoices” was no mean feat.

    Arrogance,ignorance and obstinance were the 3 wise monkeys that undid him.

  32. I wouldn’t really trust a poll after what has happened in the last 2 weeks. I think it would’ve been better to do it next Fri – Sun so that a week had passed since the leader ship change and internal turmoil.

    I suspect that Abbott’s personal ratings will have a big “undecided” group too.

  33. [1232…..jaundiced view

    You end up with two centrist parties]

    Well j-v, I don’t think the Howard Government was centrist. Nor do I think you could characterize an Abbott-Joyce coalition as centrist.

    The two party system generates tension at the centre. While each contestant necessarily has to try to appeal to the electorally mobile centre, they do so in the hope of consolidating support for distinct, competing world-views.

    So there are countervailing pressures: competition for votes in the centre brings parties together, while the necessity to maintain distinct identities acts as a centrifugal force, continually re-creating new political polarities. This is a fundamentally creative tension, bringing the attention of parties again and again to the issues and events that effect the public at large and generating new responses.

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