The first opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era has turned up a surprise: Labor’s two-party lead is a modest 53-47, and the Coalition is in front on the primary vote 43 per cent to 41 per cent. However, there are all sorts of reasons to treat this with caution. The poll is a Roy Morgan mid-week phone poll, which have a rather erratic record, and the sample was a very modest 597 respondents. The normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend while Malcolm Turnbull was leader but considered unlikely to remain so for long, had Labor’s two-party lead steady at 58.5-41.5. Labor was down a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, the Coalition was down half a point to 35 per cent and the Greens were up half to 9.5 per cent.
The phone poll has also produced questions on preferred Labor and Liberal leaders, which find Kevin Rudd coming down off previous highs and Tony Abbott enjoying a new-found legitimacy that hasn’t been quite enough for him to overhaul Joe Hockey. Rudd also has a leads as better prime minister of 60-25 over Abbott, 55-31 over Hockey and 64-25 over Turnbull. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Abbott did not perform notably worse among women than men.
Couple of other things:
• The Wentworth Courier reports Steven Lewis, Slater & Gordon lawyer, anti-high rise activist and members of the Jewish Board of Deputies, will contest Labor preselection in Wentworth. Former Australian Medical Association president Kerryn Phelps has been mentioned as a contender in the past, but declined to comment when approached by the Courier. The Australian reports barrister Mark Speakman, University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton and “most of the losers from the Bradfield preselection” would be in the running to succeed Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal member. The Courier throws Arthur Sinodinos into the mix. Speakman, Upton and Sinodinos have all been mentioned as possible successors to outgoing former state leader Peter Debnam in the corresponding state seat of Vaucluse.
• It was reported on Wednesday that NSW Treasurer Eric Roozendaal might seek to assume the premiership by entering the lower house as member for Wollongong, whose sitting member Noreen Hay would then take his place in the upper house. This plan has presumably been overtaken by events, at least in the short term.
• The Liberals are pressuring Labor to drop Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly as the candidate-presumptive for the marginal Perth seat of Cowan after a Corruption and Crime Commission report spoke of “dealings” between Kelly and Brian Burke, without making adverse findings against him. Kelly has long been associated with the Burke-linked “old Right” faction, and ran as an independent against Margaret Quirk in the state seat of Girrawheen following the split that created the latter’s “new Right” faction.
[I watched West Wing from some store bought DVDs borrowed from some friends…]
Still a breach of the Copyright Act. 🙂
@Michael Wilbur-Ham
Its 8:21pm, most grave diggers are in the pub
ruawake,
How many people do you think there are in Australia who have never, ever conducted themselves in breach of a law, any law?
Thanks Mike!
My impression of it is that it would be a fairly long “lag time” before any reduction took place and that it could never achieve enough because it is far more open to rorting and fraudulent or false claims of emission reductions especially in the trading and people could just sell up the up-front permits issued to them and just blow the money on consumer goods or whatever they fancied spending it on!
[as clearly Quentin Dempster was playing the same game here.]
He threw in a few curly ones, Hemingway. He asked about her having lessons to lose her accent and asked why she was using the word “Mum” instead of “Mom”. KK quickly came back with “could it have something to do with my children calling me Mum”. A great gotcha for KK.
I didn’t think Dempster was particularly soft.
There is another bigger story tomorrow morning:
CAPE TOWN, Dec 2 (Reuters) – The pots for Friday’s World Cup draw to be hosted in Cape Town.
Pot 1 (seeds): South Africa (group A), Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain
Pot 2: Australia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Honduras, Mexico, USA, New Zealand
Pot 3: Algeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay
Pot 4: Denmark, France, Greece, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Best for OZ 🙂 England, Australia, Paraguay, Slovakia (Just so we can beat the old enemy 👿 )
Group of death for OZ 😥 Brazil, Australia, Cameron, Portugal
ruawake,
Are you sure that it is illegal to lend a friend a DVD or CD?
I would be very surprised if this as the case!
[How many people do you think there are in Australia who have never, ever conducted themselves in breach of a law, any law?]
Probably none. I prefer my DVDs from Finns mates in Indonesia. The point I was attempting to make is how something trivial can trip up an aspiring polly from any party.
Its absurd of course, but you can see how it would play out. Get the relevant spokesperson on Copyright, get the actors guy/gal to say how they are getting ripped off, blah blah. Get the resident intertubes guru to say crud.
Then you have a scandal that even Diog could not ignore. 😉
[Are you sure that it is illegal to lend a friend a DVD or CD?]
Yes. Read the Copyright notice.
[Still a breach of the Copyright Act.]
It is not a breach.
http://www.ag.gov.au/www/agd/agd.nsf/Page/Copyright_Wheniscopyrightinfringed
[The copyright in any work or other subject-matter is infringed when any act which the copyright owner has the exclusive right to do is done by a person in Australia who is not the copyright owner (or his or her licensee). Examples include when a work is published, reproduced or performed in public without the copyright owner’s permission. This general rule is subject to a number of specific exceptions in the Copyright Act.]
William, as reported by the Wentworth Courier a few weeks ago, a number of people have indicated they are interested in being the Labor candidate for Wentworth. The Wentworth Federal Electorate Council has also publically called for a local member preselection.
ruawake,
The copyright notice means nothing. You need to read the act which is what defines the law.
(And unfortunately finding the right bit is never quick nor easy).
The night Latham beat Beaz 47 – 45 to win the Labor leadership (same as Abbott by 1 vote) channel 10 conducted a poll in their news and asked viewers who they will vote for, Howard or Latham in the election? Their poll was deadly accurate compared to the election result – 53/47 in favour of Coconut.
Tonight, channel 10 asked the same question, who you’d vote for, Keneally or O’Barrell? Result of their poll…… 82/18 to the fat one!
This is why, after 2+ years I keep coming back to PB, copy write laws, yeah that was the attraction.
Hell, we’ll spend the next three weeks on Solar/Nuclear, Israel/Palestine and The Age vs The OO.
The old grey mule she ain’t what she used to be…
[82/18 to the fat one!]
So you’re predicting 82/18 in the election?
[As you could tell from my comments on TV quality, for me I want the best picture and sound, and hence I used to buy lots of DVDs (and now Blu-rays).]
Alas, William’s relevance rules don’t allow me to share with you details of an extraordinary DVD online sale I hit recently.
However, I am allowed to make the observation that if my former Green Federal MHR, Michael Organ, talked to people in the same down-to-earth manner that you have here in PB, he would surely have had a better, if still extremely slim, chance of avoiding being a one-election wonder.
I’ve attended every Candidate Debate the past three elections, and Organ talked down his nose to the other candidates at all times. Being a former academic, I’m well aware that condescension is an occupational hazard, but the 2007 Debate was held in the ‘Gong Uni Bar with an alcohol-mellowed cheer squad of his students providing Organ with a significant majority of audience support. I hoped that, just for once, Organ would cease pontificating. But, no such luck.
[The copyright notice means nothing]
Fair enough. It is part of the contract entered into when buying the DVD, but if you say it is nothing. 😛
sample size of 597? Has anyone asked Morgan why he bothers??
No just saying GB @ 65. Also, during the news, they interviewed O’Farrell and, you are not going to believe this, he actually hoped that Labor could get its act together and that Keneally would do a good job.
Wow, how low have NSW ALP sunk!
BH went
[I didn’t think Dempster was particularly soft.]
Neither did I, BH.
I reckon Annabel’s point is that the first interview is softer than the totally brutal ones yet to come.
[sample size of 597? Has anyone asked Morgan why he bothers??]
Morgan recently sacked his phone polly staff:
[A total of 56 Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewers were dismissed in a group email earlier this month. The reason given was a shortage of work.
Staff at Roy Morgan Interviewing Services are employed under a Work Choices-style agreement after the company refused to allow the National Union of Workers to represent employees collectively. Under the agreement, the employer is not required to provide any notice of dismissal or redundancy payment.
One worker, 19-year-old Julia de la Cruz, was told that the reason why she was selected for dismissal was her attendance, job performance and behaviour.
However, less than two months ago, Ms de la Cruz was given a pay rise in recognition of her commitment and hard work over the previous year. ]
Maybe Gary thinks his FtF is better value?
This character must enjoy watching people in pain and discomfort and is either stupid or enjoys receiving it themselves too! 😉
[Felipe:
04 Dec 2009 1:16:03pm
Tony Abbott has changed the dynamics. Tony is not afraid to fight Rudd and the ALP machine. Tony will give Rudd’s lies and spins more accentuation. I cannot wait for question time in the House in 2010.]
Ruawake – fyi re copyright
Infringement of copyright see:
http://www.copyright.org.au/information/cit022/wp0012
Uses controlled by copyright owners see:
http://www.copyright.org.au/information/cit030/wp0048
[Perhaps he’s just naturally a people person.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/04/2761617.htm
This will be good to watch! A parallel argument between Ruawake and Pegasus!
I seem to remember a similar one a week ago! 😉
BH:
[He asked about her having lessons to lose her accent and asked why she was using the word “Mum” instead of “Mom”]
A sign in my view of the decline in current affairs at ABC: the public broadcaster gets an interview with the newly sworn in NSW Premier and feels it necessary to ask questions I’d expect to see in New Idea.
The attention given to Ms Keneally’s accent is puzzling. I find it hard to understand Barnaby and Doug Cameron, and practically needed subtitles for interviews with Pauline Hanson, but I never saw them quizzed about their accents as if it were a liability. At least I can understand what Keneally says!
Well at least QD wished her “Good Luck”, and it sounded genuine.
She’s a pretty impressive person. I think she’ll do well. Smart, quick-witted and presentable. Seems to know her own mind. And determined.
Pegasus thanks for confirming my position.
[You can infringe copyright by using someone else’s copyright material without their permission, unless there is a special exception for your use.]
If you buy a DVD and it says you may not lend it (as most do) you are using it without their permission.
Ruawake,
You should be familiar with this poster! Fancy “him” praising up Tony Abbott and having a go at Rudd! 😉
[ Mike Henshaw
Fri 04 Dec 09 (09:34am)
Fancy Kevin Rudd and co bemoaning the fact that Tony Abbott is refusng to use market mechanisms to solve climate change. Isn’t this the same Kevin Rudd who so forcefully denounced this very same market (and continues to do so) for getting us all into this non-existant great recession? Kevin Rudd appears to be as much of a market fundamentalist as he was an economic conservative. What an imposter he has turned out to be. He’s like a chameleon in disguise. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/houserules/index.php/theaustralian/comments/business_as_usual_in_house_of_rudd/
[He’s like a chameleon in disguise.]
Why a chameleon would need a disguise is somewhat beyond me.
[Michael, “The Age hates the Greens” is one of the weirdest notions about the Australian media I’ve seen advanced on this site in recent memory, and that’s against some very stiff competition]
Luv it.
[Group of death for OZ 😥 Brazil, Australia, Cameron, Portugal]
I reckon Ivory Coast would be far tougher than Cameroon
Rudd is not anti-the-market per se. He is anti those who abuse the market (effectively destroying that market’s purpose in the process).
[… and that’s against some very stiff competition.]
William, name some others. I hope I made the list.
[ I reckon Annabel’s point is that the first interview is softer than the totally brutal ones yet to come. ]
I watched some of this tonight and wondered – would obeid and tripodi etc, sloop so low as to put up an very presentable attractive woman as premier, as a way to blunt criticism of an old tired inept state government?
By that I mean a *new* premier *should* be given a far go etc and the bonus is those media outlets who go in too hard, look like mongrels putting the boot into a woman ?
So the nsw right get their payback on reese and try to blunt criticism against the labor goverment as well.
Of course they would try it. Did they? Who knows. But the whole thing is putrid. Fruit of the poison tree etc.
And I’m labor through and through. Carr should have lost his last election. We would probably be back in now with the libs the ones in strife.
So why headline with the more unreliable midweek rather than the usual? I’d call that a Shanahan!!
This looks like one of Truthys! It was posted by a “Trish W.”! I always suspected TTH was female and not male> If this is TTH, then I was right! 😉
[Paging Kevin Rudd, paging Kevin Rudd, I heard you have popped back into Australia for a wee visit. Thought I’d let you know another 2 boats of your invited guests, illegal queue jumpers have arrived in the past day making it 52 boats just for this year alone. Now that the ETS is not a worry for you until February, would you mind terribly getting back to this major issue. I am no longer sniggering at Phillip Ruddock’s prediction of possible 10,000 illegals arriving by end of 2010. It is no longer a laughing matter Kevin. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/houserules/index.php/theaustralian/comments/business_as_usual_in_house_of_rudd/
Darion, Fifa Ranking: Cameron 11, Ivory 16
Finns,
How’d the jury duty go. Did you send anyone down?
I’m no lawyer, but even if that is the case it sounds more like a breach of contract issue rather than a breach of copyright given that the Copyright Act does not restrict purely private performances of works.
[Group of death for OZ Brazil, Australia, Cameron, Portugal]
Doug Cameron?
I believe that it is illegal to record television broadcasts to watch later. I remember some article awhile ago about a proposal to change that but the intellectual property people were against it and nothing happened.
GG, we were waiting in the jury room for almost the whole day. Apparently between His Lordship and the others not very honourable, they could not agree on something. So we were discharged, dont call us, we call you.
We were not complaining, although the coffee was terrible. I got a cheque today for my travelling allowance, it was nice of them.
91
An “o” got left out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cameroon
Of course you can loan your DVD to a friend. There has never been any intention by the legislature to prevent that. Whatever is written on the packaging it has no force whatsoever if you have not specifically entered into a contract with the coyright holder not to loan it for free to a friend – which you certainly do not do when you buy a DVD at a shop in the normal fashion.
Relax and share with your friends …. but make sure they remember to give them back though – I always forget who I’ve loaned books or DVDs to. 🙂
[Statements on packaging limiting use of the material
Some items (including some books and videos) have notices printed on them which state that certain uses, such
as lending, are prohibited. However, for material other than, for example, CD-ROMs, computer games and software, if you are using the material in a way that is not controlled by the copyright owner, (such as by lending it) such statements do not restrict what you can do.
If you have entered an agreement under which lending, or other uses of, the material are prohibited, you may be contractually bound not to use the material in such ways. This will not normally be the case unless you have a direct relationship with the person imposing the conditions and this condition forms part of the contract under
which you bought the item.]
http://www.copyright.org.au/pdf/acc/infosheets_pdf/g054.pdf
For those who can’t get enough Parliamentary action and have a religious bent!
Fancy religions having their own Parliament! 😉
[ Tonight: The Opening Session of the Parliament of the World’s Religions held in Melbourne 5.31pm AEDT
Tonight: Parliament of the World’s Religions – Global Poverty 7.48pm AEDT]
http://www.a-pac.tv/
Finns
Mrs D did jury duty for a month earlier in the year. She didn’t get a single trial. She turned up and they said we’ll let you know. A complete waste of time.
Finns,
Were you allowed to transact business by phone or post on PB or was it a real incarceration.
[Mrs D did jury duty for a month earlier in the year. She didn’t get a single trial. She turned up and they said we’ll let you know. A complete waste of time.]
There will always be less crime under Labor
[Darion, Fifa Ranking: Cameron 11, Ivory 16]
Rankings don’t necessarily mean much. IC qualified before Cameroon, and Drogba came of the bench a fair bit. They have a much more talented squad than Cameroon IMO.