Morgan phone poll: 53-47

The first opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era has turned up a surprise: Labor’s two-party lead is a modest 53-47, and the Coalition is in front on the primary vote 43 per cent to 41 per cent. However, there are all sorts of reasons to treat this with caution. The poll is a Roy Morgan mid-week phone poll, which have a rather erratic record, and the sample was a very modest 597 respondents. The normal weekly face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend while Malcolm Turnbull was leader but considered unlikely to remain so for long, had Labor’s two-party lead steady at 58.5-41.5. Labor was down a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, the Coalition was down half a point to 35 per cent and the Greens were up half to 9.5 per cent.

The phone poll has also produced questions on preferred Labor and Liberal leaders, which find Kevin Rudd coming down off previous highs and Tony Abbott enjoying a new-found legitimacy that hasn’t been quite enough for him to overhaul Joe Hockey. Rudd also has a leads as better prime minister of 60-25 over Abbott, 55-31 over Hockey and 64-25 over Turnbull. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Abbott did not perform notably worse among women than men.

Couple of other things:

• The Wentworth Courier reports Steven Lewis, Slater & Gordon lawyer, anti-high rise activist and members of the Jewish Board of Deputies, will contest Labor preselection in Wentworth. Former Australian Medical Association president Kerryn Phelps has been mentioned as a contender in the past, but declined to comment when approached by the Courier. The Australian reports barrister Mark Speakman, University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton and “most of the losers from the Bradfield preselection” would be in the running to succeed Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal member. The Courier throws Arthur Sinodinos into the mix. Speakman, Upton and Sinodinos have all been mentioned as possible successors to outgoing former state leader Peter Debnam in the corresponding state seat of Vaucluse.

• It was reported on Wednesday that NSW Treasurer Eric Roozendaal might seek to assume the premiership by entering the lower house as member for Wollongong, whose sitting member Noreen Hay would then take his place in the upper house. This plan has presumably been overtaken by events, at least in the short term.

• The Liberals are pressuring Labor to drop Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly as the candidate-presumptive for the marginal Perth seat of Cowan after a Corruption and Crime Commission report spoke of “dealings” between Kelly and Brian Burke, without making adverse findings against him. Kelly has long been associated with the Burke-linked “old Right” faction, and ran as an independent against Margaret Quirk in the state seat of Girrawheen following the split that created the latter’s “new Right” faction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

424 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 53-47”

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  1. Try again:

    Dio@3985, previous thread:

    [The Earth’s magnetic field will reverse]

    That has happened many times in the past. The resulting magnetic stripes on either side of the mid-oceanic ridges were one of the clinchers for the proof that there is continental drift.

    Might make bird migration a bit iffy for a while, but. Some of them appear to use the earth’s magnetic field to navigate.

  2. Wiliam:

    [Labor’s two-party lead is a modest 53-47, and the Coalition is in front on the primary vote 43 per cent to 41 per cent. ]

    It’s the narrowing!

  3. [The ABC is trying to do the most, so they suffer the most.]
    ABC looks fine for me. The worst quality station is SBS in my area. SBS does 1 X HD, 2 X SD, and 2 X radio (which is 0.5 Mbps).

  4. From dtvforum.info:

    ABC1 (720 x 576i) ~5.5Mbit/sec, little variation in graph essentially CBR, 256k MPEG L2 audio
    ABC2 (720 x 576i) ~3.4Mbit/sec average, min 1.6, max 5.7, significant variation in graph, 256k L2 audio
    ABC3 (720 x 576i) ~2.3Mbit/sev average, min 1.6, max 3.1, despite being a static image significant variation in graph, 256k L2 audio.
    ABC HD (1280 x 720p50) ~ 8.5Mbit/sec average, min 7, max 10, graph shows some variation, 448k AC3 audio

    The figures now might be slightly different, but the above is about right.

    Your DVD or Blu-ray player will probably be able to show you the bit rate of your discs (eg the DISPLAY button), and you will see that a good DVD can peak up to 10Mbps. A Blu-ray can peak up to 40Mbs.

    So if you ever think that ABC1 looks just OK, ABC2 not so good, and ABC3 very soft and bad, then the figures show you why.

    Note that you need good equipment to see this, and you need to be sensitive to video quality.

    I’m sure that for some even ABC3 will look fine.

  5. Maybe Tony on seeing those figures will be encouraged to go even harder on Workchoices and anti climate change nuttery.

    A couple of outliers indicating a great Liberal recovery would encourage Abbott to go even more back in time and that would help build a 59/41 Newspoll/Neilsen. Bring on the outliers I say.

  6. [The poll is a Roy Morgan mid-week phone poll, which have a rather erratic record, and the sample was a very modest 597 respondents.]

    So which demographics do you think that will have the time to response to a mid week phone poll? 53-47 is a very good result considering. say no more.

  7. [Contrary to conventional wisdom, Abbott did not perform notably worse among women than men.]

    Oh Miranda will continue to wet herself.

  8. There is also a Face To Face poll according to Malcolm Farnsworth.

    [mfarnsworth

    Morgan Poll (face-to-face-conducted Nov28/29) has ALP 58.5% to L-NP 41.5%. Phone poll (Dec2/3) has ALP 53% to L-NP 47% http://bit.ly/8X7Hja 10 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  9. [NSW Treasurer Eric Roozendaal might seek to assume the premiership by entering the lower house as member for Wollongong]

    And what connection exactly does Eric Roozendaal have with my fine electorate? Could he even point to Wollongong on a map?

  10. [ABC HD (1280 x 720p50) ~ 8.5Mbit/sec average, min 7, max 10, graph shows some variation, 448k AC3 audio]
    I’m pretty sure they used to use 1080i for their HD channel. So it seems they have reduced the resolution on their HD channel in order to give more to their SD channels. I have some of their HD recordings where the bitrate is 15 Mbps, so it seems they have reduced that too.

  11. Just been watching Rudd launch ABC3, the new kids digital channel!
    A lot of fun, he enjoyed himself!
    The Ruddster would make a great TV host if he ever gave up politics! 🙂

  12. [Frank, I discuss that in the second half of the first para.]

    Ok, didn’t notice, but it would be nice to include the face to face in the title.

  13. This has been repeated ad nauseam: don’t look at the absolute figures, look at the trends within each pollster.

    This could get to the stage of Poss having to say again “What have you lot been smoking in here?”

  14. [And what connection exactly does Eric Roozendaal have with my fine electorate? Could he even point to Wollongong on a map?]

    But maybe Rooze has fond memories of holidays down with us in the gorgeous ‘Gong. You know, just like the freshly anointed Labor candidate who will replace Jenny George in Throsby. 🙂

  15. ShowsOn,

    Yep, the ABC used to do 1080i at 15Mbps, but when ABC2 came along they reduced it to 720p at a lower rate.

    When the watermark was introduced to ABC1, for ages ABC20 had no watermark. This was a clever strategy by the ABC because those who cared about picture quality could watch ABC20.

    Then when they added the terrible HD watermark to ABC20 everyone else just thought that watermarks were old news, and so they got away with it.

    I’m moving more and more to channel DVD and Blu-ray (and consequently do NOT support further funding for the ABC or SBS until both return to their charter of providing excellence in programming and broadcasting).

    And to get back on topic..

    The ABC radio National Interested had a bit on the by-elections. Clive spoke (but I only caught the last few seconds), and, surprise, surprise, Kelly was “not available”.

    Interesting that the ABC has given the Higgins by-election significantly more and better coverage than The Age. But, of course, The Age hates the Greens.

  16. [The Age hates the Greens.]

    As do the majority of the nation. I do not mean the Greens as a political party, but the environmental ratbags who give the Greens (political party) a bad name.

  17. Michael, “The Age hates the Greens” is one of the weirdest notions about the Australian media I’ve seen advanced on this site in recent memory, and that’s against some very stiff competition.

  18. [I’m moving more and more to channel DVD and Blu-ray]

    Michael W-H,

    Would you mind clarifying this comment? Is there a word or two missing?

    Cheers!

  19. This piece by Michael Stutchbury about Reserve Bank board member Warwick McKibbin’s alternative proposals for an alternative to an ETS or Carbon Tax convinced me to check it out further!

    From what I’ve seen so far of it he is nuts and what he is proposing would be by far the worst of the three evils and do nothing for CC abatement before the planet fried!

    I would like to hear other peoples opinions on it?

    Abbott seems to have taken a fancy to it and that is a worry as is McKibbin’s Liberal leanings. Have the resident PB Greens had a good look at it and how does it measure up for them?

    [TONY Abbott’s opposition is considering a less painful alternative to the Rudd government’s emissions trading scheme: cutting greenhouse gases now but making the next generation of Australians pay.

    The hybrid model devised by Reserve Bank board member Warwick McKibbin could satisfy the Opposition Leader’s rejection of both the ETS and a carbon tax while producing the sort of “magic pudding” emission cuts ridiculed yesterday by Kevin Rudd.

    But, contrary to some of Abbott’s suggestions, it would still require a higher carbon price.

    Developed over more than a decade and treated seriously by US thinktanks such as the Brookings Institution, McKibbin’s scheme would issue free long-term emissions permits to all households and businesses. These tradeable permits would incorporate the right to emit a shrinking volume of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases over the next 50, 80 or even 100 years.

    Over time, the price of the shrinking permits would increase, generating the financial incentive of a future carbon price for businesses to invest in reducing their carbon emissions.

    But the upfront pain would be dulled because households and businesses would own valuable permits to emit over the next two or more generations. ]
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/currentaccount/index.php/theaustralian/comments/mckibbin_buid_to_spread_the_load/

  20. The ABC coverage of by-elections was noteworthy in that both Green candidates had been interviewed for the segment. Bradfield’s Green candidate had the good sense to dress appropriately. She has captured that special North Shore look perfectly.

  21. In my opinion brand “Green” has been hijacked, by environmental nutjobs, big business, PR gurus and idiots.

    Before the 2007 election, I remember Green (political party) supporters saying that the party was not one dimensional, it has policies in all areas. This is an indisputable fact, they do.

    Yet once again they only argue their environmental credentials. Sad.

  22. [I’m moving more and more to channel DVD and Blu-ray.

    Would you mind clarifying this comment? Is there a word or two missing?]

    Sorry for the slang. Those who download lots of TV and Movies from the internet often call it “channel bittorrent” or “channel BT”.

    So what I meant was that instead of watching, for example The West Wing on channel 2 or 9, I watched it all on channel DVD.

  23. [Those who download lots of TV and Movies from the internet often call it “channel bittorrent” or “channel BT”.]

    Did you abide by copywrite requirements?

  24. [In my opinion brand “Green” has been hijacked, by environmental nutjobs, big business, PR gurus and idiots.

    Before the 2007 election, I remember Green (political party) supporters saying that the party was not one dimensional, it has policies in all areas. This is an indisputable fact, they do.

    Yet once again they only argue their environmental credentials. Sad.]

    I agree, and you can also add the Byron Bay brigade as well, as it seems they’re using tht as their starting point in teir campaigning and policy tactics.
    I

  25. [ Those who download lots of TV and Movies from the internet often call it “channel bittorrent” or “channel BT”.

    Did you abide by copywrite requirements?]

    One hopes he is not with iinet 🙂

    Me, I cannot see the appeal in downloading stuff of the net unless it is out of print and not commercially available – I prever actual DVD’s/CD’s. – A perfect example are the old uptight/Happening 70’s clips on youtube – stuff that hasn’t been seen since it’s original airdate.

  26. [example The West Wing on channel 2 or 9]

    I just checked, anyone who has downloaded an episode of The West Wing has done so without the consent of the Copyright holder.

  27. [William Bowe

    Michael, “The Age hates the Greens” is one of the weirdest notions about the Australian media I’ve seen advanced on this site in recent memory, and that’s against some very stiff competition.]

    William, I welcome some serious debate on this topic.

    The Age is without doubt a very “progressive” paper, and if I recall correctly a recent analysis found it the most “left” of Australia’s papers.

    Very often they have editorials and opinion pieces that could have been written by the Greens.

    But what the Age almost never do is mention the Greens in these pieces. This will even be the case if the piece mentions the Liberal and Labor policy.

    The Age wants Greens policy, but they want this done by Labor.

    If last election I could have hacked into the Age and simply added the information of something being Green’s policy or not (usually to articles which mentioned Labor and Liberal policy), then the Age would have become a Green’s propaganda paper.

    But by almost never mentioning the Greens, the Age is promotes the idea that the only solution is for Labor to become more progressive.

    As I pointed out earlier today, the Herald-Sun gave better coverage of the by-election than the Age. And ABC, radio especially, is doing a great job. The Age (as printed) is pretty quiet.

    Now of course the Age will sometimes say something positive about the Greens. But look at the overall coverage and I think you will see that I have a point.

    Please all remember that I am speaking as an individual. When I was a candidate in 2007 the party view was that “The Age is giving us better coverage than ever before, so don’t complain”, so I think that the party would be annoyed with what I am saying.

  28. [Did you abide by copywrite requirements?]

    Most TV and movie BT downloads are in breach of copyright laws.

    I have never downloaded a TV show or movie (either legal or illegal).

  29. I think Clive is worried about “adult” content, not ordinary TV or movie downloads.

    I’m not worried by Clive’s views on this matter because if he wins he will be in the lower house, and the Greens in the senate, where any censoring of the net legislation may be blocked, are all against the Labor proposal.

  30. [ In my opinion brand “Green” has been hijacked, by environmental nutjobs, big business, PR gurus and idiots. ]

    Hear! Hear!

    We see it here daily.

  31. [ Sorry for the slang. Those who download lots of TV and Movies from the internet often call it “channel bittorrent” or “channel BT”. ]

    Yes so much good stuff and no commercials. I don’t use BT that much but plenty of other sites with docos, movies, video clips etc.

    At times I have thought about posting some links here but thought that might *rock the boat* with william.

  32. Have just read Aristotle’s calming comment on the previous thread.

    Just think poor Poss and Aristotle have to keep we ‘nervous nellies’ calm for the next 6-9 months. I hope their eating their greens cos the poor devils will need all the strength they can muster.

    Wow – I was bowled over by that interview KK just had with Quentin Dempster. She is one very together lady. There was no stuttering and umming and ahhing like the new Fed. Lib leader who tends to do that when he is about to tell a fib or say something nasty.

  33. [Sorry for the slang. Those who download lots of TV and Movies from the internet often call it “channel bittorrent” or “channel BT”.

    So what I meant was that instead of watching, for example The West Wing on channel 2 or 9, I watched it all on channel DVD.]

    So you watched it, but you did not download it?

    This is a prime example of how people seeking public office get compromised. Its trivial, nobody cares, everyone does it. Except it could be used against you.

    So just vote for x,y,z and it will be forgotten, then when you vote x,y,z, the crunch comes. You only voted that way because you were pressured to. So you better vote that way every time – bingo compromised.

    M W-H, I am in no way implying you have done anything wrong. Just pointing out the bleedin obvious. 🙁

  34. scorpio,

    The main problem I see with the scheme (26) is that the permits still need to get from the individuals to the emitters. So instead to Government to person to emitter, easier to go straight from government to emitter.

    I think any scheme which has trading in permits simply become a money market where some will distort the market and make huge profits at the expense of all of us.

    So I’m for the government auctioning permits that cannot be traded (but can be sold back to the government at the price paid).

  35. Just for clarity,

    I watched West Wing from some store bought DVDs borrowed from some friends, and then bought the huge box set one day when it was so cheap I could not resist.

    I’m happy to say I haven’t downloaded any TV or movies because I never have. But if I was standing for office I would not want to get trapped into having to disclose other possible sins 🙂

    As you could tell from my comments on TV quality, for me I want the best picture and sound, and hence I used to buy lots of DVDs (and now Blu-rays).

  36. BH went:

    [Wow – I was bowled over by that interview KK just had with Quentin Dempster. She is one very together lady.]

    All the same, it might be wise to keep in mind Annabel Crabb’s description of Kerry O’Brien’s penchant for going softly in his first interviews with new party leaders, as clearly Quentin Dempster was playing the same game here.

    [O’Brien’s aims for the interview were the same as usual; a light tenderising, and promise of brutalities to come.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/02/2759158.htm

  37. I think we are going to see much more of this over the next 6 months or so! Howard’s mob had 11.5 years to do something and did nothing. Coonan’s plan was a disastrous flop and was going to take 5 years or so to do anyway.

    Minchin thinks Rudd should have had Labors NBN in place in two years when even putting a project of this magnitude, given the problems Labor inherited with Telstra not having been split and yet the roll-out in Tasmania is being done at an impressive pace!

    Seems a tad hypocritical to me but that is par for the course as Tiger would say for the Lieberals!

    [Senator Nick Minchin says today’s announcement is typical of the Government’s handling of the broadband network – heavy on spin, light on detail and late on action.

    “We have no idea what this money is actually going to be used for. We don’t know how much Nextgen is putting into the project,” he said.

    “We have no idea what services will be provided off this backhaul.

    “We don’t know what pricing will be applied to those services and after all, backhaul is just fibre to the paddock, it doesn’t involve new services to customers.

    “So again we find that after two years, Labor has not delivered one single broadband services under the guise of its much-touted national broadband network.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/04/2762229.htm

    [On 7 April 2009, the Australian Government announced that the RFP had been terminated and that the Australian Government would instead construct a A$43 billion FTTH network to supply 90% of the population with speeds of 100 Megabits per second the remainder being served by next generation wireless and satellite technologies with speeds of 12 Megabits per second. The decision was based on a report stating that the remaining bids did not present value for money.[19] The Tasmanian Government was selected for fast-tracked negotiations to build on its proposal and work within the federal government’s revised plan, with a view to starting construction in July 2009]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Broadband_Network

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