At last, a second poll to back the notion that Labor has taken a hit in recent weeks. The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face survey has Labor’s lead at 56-44: healthy enough in absolute terms, but down from 61-39 last week and 60.5-39.5 at the previous regular fortnightly survey. Labor is down 4.5 per cent on the primary vote while the Coalition is up 3.5 per cent (CORRECTION: up 6 per cent) to 38.5 per cent. The Greens are down 1.5 per cent to 8 per cent; not sure where the remainder went. The normal Morgan poll release is not available yet, but it can be assumed that this is based on last weekend’s polling of a sample of about 1000. The numbers can be seen on Morgan’s Poll Trends page. Thanks to sharp-eyed/well-informed readers for pointing this out.
UPDATE: Morgan’s poll release informs us that this is one of those occasions where Morgan also unloads a mid-week poll conducted on the back of an unrelated survey. This one has Labor’s lead at just 52-48 – but the sample is only 573. The sample size of the face-to-face poll turns out to have been 874.
UPDATE 2: Jamie Walker and Lenore Taylor of The Weekend Australian inform us of a Newspoll survey of 1847 voters conducted this week across six Queensland marginal seats: “the Brisbane-based Liberal seats of Bowman and Dickson, Labor-held Longman to the north of the capital, Flynn and Dawson in central Queensland, also with the ALP, and the Liberal electorate of Herbert, centred on Townsville”. What we really need here is a table, but between them the reports inform us that:
• Support for Labor “has lifted 2.9 per cent since Mr Rudd was elected two years ago, against 6.2 per cent Australia-wide”.
• Two-party support for Labor in Dawson in Flynn has increased almost 3 per cent since the election, despite hostility in those electorates towards emissions trading.
• Satisfaction with Kevin Rudd’s performance as Prime Minister ranged between 46 per cent in Flynn and 61 per cent in Herbert, and averaged 54 per cent.
• “Mr Turnbull’s best results were in Bowman, in Brisbane’s east, and Herbert, where he scored 38 per cent approval; his worst was 27 per cent in Longman, lost to Labor at the last election by former Howard government minister Mal Brough. Satisfaction with the Opposition Leader averaged out at 34 per cent.”
• Preferred prime minister reflected the national situation, with Rudd leading 63-22.
• Overall, “only 26 per cent of voters across the electorates like what (Rudd) is doing with Telstra, only 27 per cent think he is doing a good job with asylum-seekers and 56 per cent think he’s being too soft on them”; however, “sixty-one per cent of voters in the six electorates thought Labor was doing a good job in handling interest rates”.
Other news:
• The Mercury reports former state Labor MP Kathryn Hay has pulled out of her comeback bid in Bass citing health problems. However, her media statement has made a point of telling us she “did not rule out” standing for Labor again, prompting suggestions she might yet seek to replace Jodie Campbell in the federal seat. Alison Andrews of the Launceston Examiner says Hay’s exit “provides the opportunity for newly elected Launceston City Council alderman Rob Soward to rethink trying for state politics”, after he failed to win one of the six positions in the recent preselection vote. For what it’s worth, a commenter on the Mercury article said he had it “on very good authority that Lisa Singh is also looking to jump the sinking Bartlett ship with an eye on Duncan Kerr’s Federal Denison seat”.
• Peter van Onselen in The Australian reports that Labor’s preselection politburo wishes to install social worker Louise Durack as its candidate against Liberal front-bencher Michael Keenan in the Perth seat of Stirling, which has a notional margin of 1.3 per cent after minor redistribution adjustments. Durack failed to carry the highly marginal new seat of Ocean Reef at the September 2008 state election. Another aspirant, Balcatta Senior High School chairwoman Janet Pettigrew, is reportedly being pressured to withdraw.
• James Massola of the Canberra Times reports the ACT Greens are likely to preselect Sue Ellerman for Canberra and Indra Esguerra for Fraser on Monday, but the more interesting question of their Senate candidate will not be resolved for a few more weeks.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian observes that “safe Liberal electorates have borne the brunt of the Rudd government’s clampdown on family payments”. All of the 15 electorates identified as most heavily affected are Liberal seats, including Wentworth, Curtin, North Sydney and Warringah.
• Andrew Crook of Crikey reports the Prime Minister is weighing up whether to stick with Belinda Neal in Robertson or “install a political cleanskin untainted by the saga surrounding the notorious events at Iguana Joe’s”. The opinion of local branch members is unlikely to have much to do with it.
Crikey! La-la land is back!
“Crikey! La-la land is back!”
Would you like to hazrd a guess what percentage of uni students actually support the compulsorary student union tax?
Astro
Still making things up. Your comprehension skills rival your arithmetical skills. I have been sitting in front of my computer all day and have read every post.
You may think that people are discussing what you imagine they are, I can assure you there may be treatment.
You tell me. I reckon it’ll simply be your Liberal based opinion. Good to see you have moved on from the AS.
gus,
You’ve taken the sage advice of “everything in moderation”?
Scorps
What have they done to my turtle.
Finns,
keep a lookout willya
😉
Rua
I posted exactly what I wrote that you responded to.
You want it again?
me at 1321
Here’s my prediction:
There will be no DD election. Rudd and Labor are too worried about the Greens and the votes they will lose to them. They’ll either make an even weaker version of the legislation to get it passed, or they will simply wait until the next normal election. They will lose too many votes to the Greens if they go DD, and the last thing they want is to have to negotiate with a Greens BOP in the Senate.
you at 1325
Astro
The Govt does not give a flying artichoke about the Greens now or in the future. Holding the balance of power as a party means zilch.
You think the Libs will accept Green amendments to the minority of legislation that is not passed by Lab/Libs voting together?
Not making anything up. You just didn’t pay attention to what I wrote – possibly because you deal solely in facts, yes?
I’m back on patrol now, so expect a more interventionist approach than earlier today. Gusface, I think you were using a new email address, and hence tagged as a new commenter.
And hence the new gravatar.
I will hunt that darn turtle down and give him/her a good talking to.
finns
stand easy
😉
Astro
Where did you mention the CPRS. Sorry I’m not a clarivoyant.
OK I should have realised the only legislation the Greens want to talk about is the CPRS. Single issue fanatics.
“You tell me. I reckon it’ll simply be your Liberal based opinion. Good to see you have moved on from the AS.”
No it would be from a University Student perspective.
What year did you attend Uni?
I’ll let you in on a secret… student union fee’s are hated universally by uni students, whether they vote Labor or Liberal is irrelevent.
It’s a massive con and ripoff of those students who can least afford it. You don’t give a damn though.
Astro, next year we can hopefully form a coalition with the ALP in Tasmania. Eventually elsewhere. It’s not just in Australia that the Greens are on the rise, it is everywhere. There is a global trend towards the Greens and the old parties haven’t rapped their heads around this yet. Just as Labour and socialism swept the political system and did over the Whigs, so too will we make the political landscape reborn.
The system is so drastically damaged that change is inevitable: fish stocks are getting smaller and by 2040 science magazine predicts NO commercially caught fish will have over 10% of their original numbers. That’s not much fish to go round! Global Warming, Peak Oil, deforestation! This cannot go on! A new deal is needed – the Green New Deal. Based on Green ideals of sustainability and human well-being. It is absurd to work long hours and to permanently deface the Earth to produce luxery consumer goods when any psychologist can tell you that money does not buy happiness! The Growth Model lies in tatters because infinite growth in a finite world is a contradiction that cannot go ignored. It is foolish to be at war with the laws of nature because you cannot win, but that is exactly what we are doing if we prettend that high CO2 pollution will not hurt us (75% of what we polluted in 2000 is still way too high). When we start prioritizing Gross National Hapiness over Gross National Product we will be on the right track. Will we win all battles? No, but we will come to power in many countries. It is unclear what the future holds but one things for sure: the status quo is not an option.
I loved the way that Malcolm Farr “didn’t” answer the first poster on his piece!
I think “this” was more like the style of comment he was trying to attract!
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/jury_still_out_on_the_value_of_kevin_rudds_globetrotting/
Did that work out well in the past?
Oh terrific, another wretched Labor vs. Green war. I don’t suppose anyone has given any thought as to why this dip in the polls is happening? O.K., there was the questions about soft and hard responses to asylum seekers in the Essential a week ago that indicated a significant chunk of folk thought Labor was being too soft. That worried me I must say, i.e., there’s rather too many TTHs out there. Then there’s the economic issues being canvassed in the Essential today, and I think, for goodness sake, the government has just steered us through the GFC, with minimal pain, and you’ve got TTH whining about student union fees paid at some point in the past. There’s too many TTHs, in my view, particularly among the over 65s.
My personal view, and I realise this will provoke responses of “bias, what bias” or “they are in government, they’ll get criticized, get over it” from the usual suspects, however, I’m gobsmacked by the negativity and hostility flung at Rudd, such as the Opposition being the lead story on the apology today.
I realise it’s only anecdotal, but people I work with are starting to comment as to why the MSM are so dark on Rudd.
So has the rogue Newspoll bootstrap worked? It’s starting to look that way after ER today. I hope the scumbags at the Oz are happy.
Astrobleme:
No you thought you have, but it did not get through to me even after reading.
There is an election in 2012, sure. The thing is, Green has no choice but to support Labor, because it is the only ELECTABLE party that would do something about emission cut. Do you see the coalition doing a deal with the Greens? For the deal to happen, the Nationals will probably have to split from the coalition, and half the Liberal party would rather eat dirt.
Green will not form a government, they need either Liberal or Labor to implement some of their policies. It is a lot easier to start with a party that is actually on the same side of politics. If Green deals with the coalition, and the Liberal prime minister swiftly declares a delay of the emission cut program to year 2200, the Green’s voter base would really swell then. Remember there is no non-confidence vote in Australian parliament. Once they get into the government there is nothing Greens can do.
A more truthful statement would be: student union fees are hated by students when they are used for political BS activity rather than delivering student services.
The Libs lyingly ran a VSU campaign targetting student councils who sent money to student organisations in Burma rather than (say) ensuring that a subsidised cafeteria remained open.
When services started falling apart, particualrly at regional campuses, the Liberal government’s approach was to partially subsidise with taxpayers money, which is really quite odd because surely a user pays (i.e. current students) would be preferable. And if you’re at a regional campus you really do rely on these Union provided services. Which Uni are you at, by the way?
The point is that had the Libs accepted Labor’s amendment, which would have kept the services portion compulsory and the political activist component options (I know I would have cheerfully paid the former and cheerfully not paid the latter) you would have broad support across uni students.
BUT … your Liberal buddies prefer to lie about it and distort the situation. Que sera sera.
He certainly wouldn’t have enjoyed this one! I’m surprised they let it through!
For what it’s worth, I thought it was one of the better comments I have seen recently in response to a blatant “baiting”/”attack” post by Farr!
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/jury_still_out_on_the_value_of_kevin_rudds_globetrotting/
THM fancies himself as some sort of evangelist. But, he’s more the Banjo’s gilded youth. “His eyes are dull, his head is flat, he has no brains at all”.
“not a dichotomy remember…”
So which other party can form a government? You are not seriously suggesting that the Greens will form a government are you?
They are hoping voters in EVERY Labor held seats come to the collective senses and elect a Greens MP.
To paraphrase Sam Kekovich.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzBG4k8aTus
Can’t you Amigos move on? It’s been a year and a half since Billary lost. 😀
Diog wrote:
No it didn’t. It was a rogue, not Nostradamus. The fall-off (according to O’Shannessy’s write-up at the time) was in the under 50s. Essential says it’s in the over 50s.
Newspoll is bunk, no more accurate than any other poll. It does not predict trends like some soothsayer. surprised you could be fooled so easily Diog.
Robot
The bottle of what analogy doesn’t work in terms of global warming, but it would on many other issues such as industrial relations. In industrial relations a step towards workers rights, no matter how small should not be frowned about for it is progress. Global Warming is very different as an issue. Unlike industrial relations reform it has a ‘due date’ after which nothing more is of any consequence because we have failed. You cannot be half pregnant nor can you half address CC because mother nature doesn’t compromise. We either overhaul the system enough to prevent IREVERSABLE CC if we don’t get below 350ppm or else we fail. so unlike with a small water bottle or industrial relations a half measure is as good as no measure.
“A more truthful statement would be: student union fees are hated by students when they are used for political BS activity rather than delivering student services.”
What “services”??
It must be the only tax i’ve ever seen where you don’t actually get anything back in return.
The Gym needed a paid membership, you had to pay for parking, had to pay for pub membership, books were recommended retail price, the cafeteria food was crap and the student union elections no one gave a toss about.
Might as well have stuck my 400 bucks in an incinerator.
BB
As you say, the demographics of the shift ER were different (and you’d expect the demographic shift ER picked up as my guess is elderly are more unhappy about AS) to Newspoll shift but it was still the equal lowest ER for Labor since they started.
It’s a big coincidence for ER and Morgan to detect significant, ie >MOE, movement in the same direction as Newspoll, unless you ascribe to the view that Newspoll was in fact a push-poll, which even I’m not cynical enough to do.
Tom Hawkins (1381 at 6.36 pm),
The DLP did not consist of “crazies”, and it kept the Liberals in power in order to force the ALP to reform. Do not forget that those who formed the DLP had been expelled by the controllers of the ALP in the 1950s. The lesson the ALP gained from that period was not to conduct a purge against its own members, which is why there have been no Labor splits in the last 54 years, compared with three in the previous 54 years. The DLP would never have voted for so-called WorkChoices.
marky marky (1383 at 6.39 pm),
The fact that you are an atheist has nothing to do with your not being a member of the DLP. Fred Riley, secretary of the Manufacturing Grocers Union, was a socialist and an atheist and Victorian president of the DLP in the 1960s.
The four DLP unions re-affiliated at the instigation of Bob Hawke and have helped keep the ALP on a moderate social democratic course. Going back to the days of Bill Hartley and George Crawford would be madness.
The one former DLP union that remains in existence, the SDA, can hardly control the whole party.
I presume Newspolls unpublished 2PP was back to 59/41, given they reported in their Qld marginal weekend poll that the swing nationwide was 6.2% since the election.
[It’s a big coincidence for ER and Morgan to detect significant, ie >MOE, movement in the same direction as Newspoll, unless you ascribe to the view that Newspoll was in fact a push-poll, which even I’m not cynical enough to do.
Newspoll wasn’t a push poll, it was a rogue. The News Ltd & ABC bootstrapping in the following two weeks is what has moved the other polls IMO.
Isnt it funny though that Laborites are disappointed with “only” 55/45. I think this is the state of play with an extra up to 5 % of “cream” depending on the issues of the day
Agreed. If that is the best they can do after the shite they’ve thrown at Labor then the Libs are in real trouble.
It’s more that the anti Laborites expect us to be, Andrew.
Personally, I’m not fussed if we win 102 seats or 99, although bob will be shocked by my callousness.
The Heysen Molotov@1476
1. Every country contributes to the greenhouse emission to this planet. Even if Australia cuts its emission by 99%, if other countries cannot be persuaded we are still toast, if the 350ppm figure turns out to be correct. It is not like the sea level arround Hawaii will rise while that arround Sydney will not if Australia does its bit.
2. 600ml of water will not get us to the waterhole, it is 5L or failure. So the analogy is not as flawed as you thought. However, it is even more absurd to throw away the 600ml bottle and hope somehow 5L of water would appear. On the other hand, If one drinks the 600ml of water it might just give them a bit more time to find something more before all hopes are lost.
Dario, I dont know how much you can blame News Ltd and ABC for any shift, but the OO’s withholding of the 2PP last week appeared to be a blatant “this one’s better for Labor, let’s wait for the next one” tactic. And defenders of O’Shannasey can explain how he concluded the honeymoon was over on the basis of the qld marginal poll that mentioned a 6.2% swing to Labor since the election which did not correspond with the latest published 52/48 poll
TTH
This article is not for you!
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1133292/Indonesia-threatens-deportation
1481
I said something similar the other day. It’s disappointing that a rouge poll coupled with the MMM cheer squad has possibly resulted in a real shift away from Labor even though the Libs have done nothing by way of policy or persuasive argument to warrant a boost.
1482
I know. I’d have killed for a 55/45 2 years in to a first term if offered it in late 2007. A lot of that cream could be secured if the Government were to start selling their policies/legislation via tax payer funder advertising. To their credit they have not gone down that road.
Tom I wonder whether you are giving to much credit to the MSM. All their campaigning for Howard didnt work, what would make you think they would have so much influence now??
HSO – I think they are getting exactly what they’ve been after. Another few articles today were lousy for Kev who got huge ovations when he spoke today but they weren’t shown on the news tonight on Sky, ABC or SBS. Plenty of Malcolm tho.
Labor has got to sell itself better. Lindsay Tanner pointed out lies in the papers last week about the consultants spending. Too late – it’s old news and the punters will believe the news they read last week. There will be no retraction. The whole thing smells.
It worked for several elections, but then his time ran out
Piece in Crikey today says that Mumbrella is now writing for the OO!!
Andrew, Dario hit the nail on the head @1491
piece at Vex says Jonathan Green has moved on from Crikey.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7316/green-out-newsletters-editorshareholder-walks-away-for-the-loving-embrace-of-state-media/
Kersebleptes@1365:
Kersebleptes, I am a delicate person!
:kiss:
Robot
I said “yes” to your hypothetical question.
But your hypothetical question doesn’t mirror the debate about the CPRS.
Robot
““not a dichotomy remember…”
So which other party can form a government? You are not seriously suggesting that the Greens will form a government are you?”
do you understand what dichotomy means? It has nothing to do with forming a Government.
Crikey reporting loss in sales for newspapers. Perhaps if they started to actually report the news instead of filling the pages with biassed opinion pieces things could improve. Doesn’t say much for Murdoch’s plans for the net.
Essential Research report here, if anyone’s still interested.
GG