Newspoll: 52-48

Big shock from Newspoll: Labor’s two-party lead has slumped from 59-41 to 52-48, their smallest lead since the last poll prior to the 2007 election. The shift on preferred prime minister is much more modest, Kevin Rudd’s lead slipping from 65-19 to 63-19. It’s apparently also been reported both sides have shifted seven points on the primary vote, which would mean they are level on 41 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has had four points transfer from approve (59 per cent) to disapprove (32 per cent); Turnbull’s approval is steady on 32 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 51 percent.

It’s a very different story from Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead steady at 59-41. Supplementary questions show mixed messages on asylum seekers: one shows support for a tough line and an apparent belief that the Rudd government is delivering, but 55 per cent rate its handling of the issue “not so good/poor” against 36 per cent “excellent/good”. Significantly, a further question shows people do not think the Liberals would do any better.

UPDATE: Newspoll history records six reversals of comparable size. The poll of 6-8 November 1992 saw a 46-54 Labor deficit turn into a 54-46 lead, for what looked to be no readily obvious reason at the time. On 20-22 August 1993, immediately after John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget, the Coalition’s lead went from 51-49 to 60-40. On 23-25 September 1994, Labor went from 57-43 ahead to 51-49 behind in what looked like a correction following two consecutive horror surveys for Alexander Downer. When John Howard took over from him at the end of January 1995, the next survey of 10-12 February saw Labor’s 54-46 lead turn into a 53-47 deficit. The poll immediately after the 1998 election saw the Coalition turn a 53-47 deficit at the last (evidently inaccurate) pre-election poll into a 54-46 lead. Finally, on 28-30 May 2004, Labor under Mark Latham suffered a short-lived slump from 53-47 ahead to 54-46 behind.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 thoughts on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. That is an impressive move – Great propaganda. They are putting their money where their mouth is and in so doing adding pressure on the government. Well done MUA & CFMEU!

    I guarantee the majority of Australians will be against that move.

  2. I mean, by what stretch of the imagination could Porky Piers be considered an insider? As far as I can see, the only thing he’s inside of is the Liberal Party’s backside.

    Yes, Janet’s just there for the macramé lessons. Well done, Howard.

  3. Gary
    Yes, but one of the reasons for such a move is to build greater support within the community for their point of view.

  4. I didn’t see last nights Q&A but having watched it previously it was always full of bleeding heart left wing tree huggers that could make Bob Brown look mainstream.

    You can usually tell em before they even start their left wing spiel by the wool knitted sweaters and dodgy hair cuts.

    For example we know 80% of Australians don’t want boatpeople coming here, yet the audience always takes a “let em all in!” rose coloured glasses look at the world. I have not yet seen any hard questions about illegals so far.

  5. I agree Richo wouldn’t really qualify as a lefty but for these purposes he does since in the silly ALP/COALition stoushes over nothing significant (often where they actually have identical policies anyway) then he would take the ALP line. Politics is sometimes like children’s games: “I know you are, you said you are, but what am I?” In this context he counts as ALP.

    I know, it’s fair enough. Couldn’t resist the reply though 🙂

  6. we’ve got problems with the national broadcaster and its blatant anti-Labor agenda

    Did we just ignore the Howard years????

    Seriously, get your hand off it. The ABC is not biased. They go in hard on the government of the day.

    Obviously that’s too much for the fair-skinned limp-wristed anti-ABC brigade.

  7. Those unions giving money to the recalcitrant “asylum seekers’ will harden community attitudes against unions and asylum seekers. It will also consolidate the impression that the Rudd government is not controlled by the union movement.. So … mixed results, shall we say.

  8. Gary B

    “Jv, it still isn’t that simple I’m afraid. Good in theory but…..”

    But what? Is it too complicated to heed the HRC’s call to stop discriminating against and abusing the human rights of the boat arrivals? In fact it is the government that is taking the simplistic path because it’s ‘too hard’ to offer the required leadership.

  9. Yes, but one of the reasons for such a move is to build greater support within the community for their point of view.

    So you do what you know most people will dislike to gain support from them. Yeah, good tactic that.

  10. I guarantee the majority of Australians will be against that move.

    So an elected government should only do what the majority of Australians want?

  12. BH:

    Dario – I thought his electorate was on the other side of the bridge. ABC is sort of Sydney CBD (or just a few streets away). Someone might know for sure.

    The ABC’s NSW central location is in Ultimo, which is immediately adjacent to the Sydney CBD. It’s nowhere near Joe’s electorate of North Sydney (in which I have the good fortune to dwell – so I can vote against him).

  13. They go in hard on the government of the day

    And go easy on the Opposition these days, while always prioritising their talking points.

  14. Is it too complicated to heed the HRC’s call to stop discriminating against and abusing the human rights of the boat arrivals?

    It is when those with preconceived ideas will wipe there behind on the paper that that report is written on and an opposition making hay while the sun shines. Too right it isn’t that simple.
    So all Rudd and his ministers have to say is that thus is so and everyone will go “So it is because you say so.” Yeah, that will work.

  16. On the average there are 30 people killed by guns each day across the USA. So i dont get what all the hoo-hahs about 12 people killed by guns in an US Army barrack.

    If you cant have a decent shoot out in an Army barrack and in Texas, where else can you have it? It’s just like High Noon …. do not forsake me oh my darlin’……….

    Or as Arlo Gutrie said when he was drafted and reporting to the draft centre: “I want to kill”.

  17. Seriously, get your hand off it. The ABC is not biased. They go in hard on the government of the day.

    Absolutely. Janet and co were only put on the board to give beauty tips.

    Obviously that’s too much for the fair-skinned limp-wristed anti-ABC brigade.

    Personal attacks from good ol’ bob again. How we’ve missed you.

  18. Zoomster

    In my dark moments, I tend to think our civilisation has reached the point all civilisations do, where it knows what’s wrong with it but has reached the stage where it’s impossible to make the changes necessary. Rome knew it was doomed if it didn’t change, some of the emperors (who had absolute power to an extent undreamt of by any of our political parties) made gallant efforts to make these changes, but it still collapsed.

    I agree. I don’t think the system can really cope with the amount of change that is needed.
    The worst thing is that we aren’t just being hit from one angle but from many:
    • Global Warming
    • Peak Oil, Peak Bird Poop, shortages of other natural resources including water.
    • According to an article in ‘Science’ by 2040 it is predicted that ALL commercial fish stocks will be depleted to under 10% of their peak numbers! Repeat: ALL fisheries!
    • The ongoing economic problems. The excessive debt driven growth in the US can go on no longer and a realignment of global trade relations is necessary.
    • The above issues will lead to political clashes, probably even war.
    Yet while all these terrible things will be happening we will also see incredible technological advance. How bizarre!

  20. Gary B

    “will wipe there behind on the paper that that report is written on”

    So much for human rights, eh? May as well wipe their behind with the refugee convention we are supposed to support as well. Then write down what Kevin Rudd said in front of the church about why we are part of the convention and wipe vigorously with that too. I guess to some nothing matters now but getting that precious xeno-bogan vote.

  21. Bait dispatched to the fence.

    But it’s true. Labor and you CLLR’s don’t know what you stand for anymore. Don’t do something just because a majority of Australians wouldn’t support it? What nonsense is that? What kind of morally bankrupt person wants to govern in whatever is popular at any point in time?

    Atrocious.

  23. The ABC’s NSW central location is in Ultimo, which is immediately adjacent to the Sydney CBD. It’s nowhere near Joe’s electorate of North Sydney (in which I have the good fortune to dwell – so I can vote against him).

    Yep, already self-corrected at #2046. I’m in North Sydney too but the move from the Gore Hill studios totally slipped my mind.

  24. I guess to some nothing matters now but getting that precious xeno-bogan vote.

    Who would you rather in government: Labor or the other mob?

  25. Thanks StephenD – thought it was there. How far does Hockey’s electorate stretch. Does he take in Cremorne/Mosman area or go the other way up to Bradfield.

  26. Who would you rather in government: Labor or the other mob?

    What a pissant limpwristed reply. As much as I hate Howard at least he had the courage to do what he “thought” was right, not what was popular. No government governs by what’s popular, and neither should Rudd. But I knew this was going to happen which is why I put Greens 1. At least they’re prepared to talk the same way they feel, unlike Labor who says one thing and feels another – ie: asylum seekrs.

  27. 2075

    bob, that PROVES you’re a lib in heavy disguise. Howard constantly changed policy tack when reaction showed that a policy line was unpopular. If he’d done what he thought was right, we would have had WorkChoices introduced in 1996.

    ?How do you know Labor isn’t talking the way it feels? How do you know that, were the Greens in government, they would behave any differently? Both statements are guesswork on your part.

  28. TheTruthHurts:

    I didn’t see last nights Q&A but having watched it previously it was always full of bleeding heart left wing tree huggers that could make Bob Brown look mainstream.

    You can usually tell em before they even start their left wing spiel by the wool knitted sweaters and dodgy hair cuts.

    For example we know 80% of Australians don’t want boatpeople coming here, yet the audience always takes a “let em all in!” rose coloured glasses look at the world. I have not yet seen any hard questions about illegals so far.

    You have a one track mind, don’t you TTH? All you ever bleat on about is your stupid xenephobic clap-trap! They are not “Illegals”, that is a fricken disgusting term! They are refugees!!! Do you know what a refugee is? Do you know the definition? Refugees are fleeing for their life and you want to lock them up behind barb wire? That is absurd! They aren’t the bad-guys, they are fleeing from the bad-guys because otherwise they would die. I find your attidude to be utterly disgusting. It is people like you that give Australians a bad name. I suppose you were out there on Cronula Beach with the rest of those nationalist thugs?

    Honestly I will never understand what goes on inside the heads of these wacko’s! How do these reactionary termites form such opinions?”

  29. What a pissant limpwristed reply.

    Bob, I asked you the other day, what would happen to the government if they followed the Green line on asylum seekers? You said, you did not know, that it was a very complex problem.

    I put it to you that, if they took the Green line, they would be out on their ear next election, and the Liberals back in.

    Is that what you want? Who would you rather have in government? It’s gotta be one or the other.

  30. How far does Hockey’s electorate stretch. Does he take in Cremorne/Mosman area or go the other way up to Bradfield.

    Both really. It borders Bradfield and borders Warringah across Cremone/Mosman.

  32. So much for human rights, eh? May as well wipe their behind with the refugee convention we are supposed to support as well. Then write down what Kevin Rudd said in front of the church about why we are part of the convention and wipe vigorously with that too. I guess to some nothing matters now but getting that precious xeno-bogan vote.

    Just to quote me accurately –

    It is when those with preconceived ideas will wipe there behind on the paper that that report is written on and an opposition making hay while the sun shines. Too right it isn’t that simple.

    I was talking about how the Australian people are not how I want them to be. What is, not what in an ideal world I want it to be.

    Ah, it must be tremendous viewing the world through rose coloured glasses. I want world peace too. What are my chances of ever seeing that?

  33. Oh, and let’s not forget how Howard acted as Santa Claus for much of his reign by handing out middle class welfare left right and centre.

  35. “So an elected government should only do what the majority of Australians want?”

    CORRECT.

    Welcome to Democracy.

    Easy stomach. I can’t believe I’m going to say this but I agree with T … T …TruthHurts.

  37. Cuppa

    Who would you rather in government: Labor or the other mob?

    Whichever of the terrible duo is in power should be encouraged to do what is right – not just what retains power. Both mobs should stop pandering to ignorance, as on asylum seekers. Because Labor is marginally less bad on some things doesn’t change that, or deserve a bouquet.

  38. Go get ‘im THM. Now you know the problem Rudd has with this problem. Get too many of them coming out of the woodwork and bingo, the Libs take the next election and we go back to the days of spending on nothing but rich/middle class welfare and tax refunds.

    That policy spells doom for productivity and true wealth.

    I feel sorry for both Obama and Rudd – fancy having to come into office at a time when the sleezy financial advising/hedge fund/derivative dealing went ban, plus climate change to boot. They have to sort out stuff the conservatives should have been addressing for years but never had the b…s to touch.

    And to top it off, in this country, we get the measlymouths dogwhistling again.

  39. I was going to suggest that rather than thinking about increasing net immigration as a response to refugee flows, we might consider increasing humanitarian entry as a proportion of all immigration. That was before I realised this has already happened by virtue of the fact that humanitarian entry has remained static while Minister Evans cut skilled migration by 14% earlier this year.

    As it turns out, policy changes made around that time have had some unfortunate consequences, as this Inside Story article highlights:

    http://inside.org.au/a-blockage-in-the-skilled-migration-pipeline/

  40. What Rudd should be doing of course as a political leader is totally forgetting about what the Australian people want or will accept and just go ahead with “what is right”. Bugger it, forget about the next election and being in power. That doesn’t mean a thing. Everyone knows that you can change the world in 3 years. Get in change it and get out, that’s the way it’s done. Then let the other side do it for 12 or 16 years. Plenty of time to change it all back again. Yeah, that’s it.

  41. Oh yes how silly of me, Australia wanted WorkChoices in Howard’s first term (when the Democrats managed to change a lot of it) and in Howard’s last term. What a shocking memory I have.

    These CLLRs, I don’t know…

  42. A KIWI politician has been left red-faced after launching an expletive-ridden tirade accusing “white motherf..kers” of ripping off indigenous people.

    The MP, a member of the Government’s coalition partner, the Maori Party, let rip in an email to a New Zealand voter who criticised him for bunking off on a work trip to visit Paris.

    Hone Harawira had skipped a meeting in Brussels so he and his wife Hilda could spend a day sightseeing in Paris.

    Clearly unimpressed with being criticised over it, Mr Harawira reacted by accusing white people of “puritanical bullshit” for expecting him to follow the rules.

    “White motherf..kers have been raping our lands and ripping us off for centuries and all of a sudden you want me to play along with their puritanical bullshit,” the indigenous MP wrote in the email, made public by the New Zealand media.

    “And quite frankly I don’t give a shit what you or anyone else thinks about it. OK?”

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26313231-5005962,00.html

    Gold.

  43. Bob: You might claim not to be a Liberal stooge, but you sure give a good impression of someone who dislikes Rudd, the ALP and Labor supporters on this board.

  44. gary B @ 2082

    I was talking about how the Australian people are not how I want them to be.

    So was I, but I take the next step and consider how we can change things back to how they were under Fraser and Hawke, before Howard unleashed the xeno-beast.

    That’s why I say the government needs to do whatever necessary to neutralise this issue in the community by taking a Keatingesque stand. Don Watson is still going strong. Get him to draft another seminal speech. Get the ministers out there explaining the facts over and over. And then stop the human rights abuse against boat arrivals.
    Anything but this continuing pathetic, limp and firm, frightened, fence-sitting, ‘I’m soft but I’m hard’ rubbish. Sounds like a non-performer in the bedroom just before he takes his blue pill. 🙂

  45. Tell ya what. Keep heckling Labor to do the “right” thing (ie the left thing) on asylum seekers … then you’ll get SerfChoices back with a vengeance courtesy of the Liberals after the next election.

  46. I wonder why Howard refused to sign Kyoto when a majority of Australians wanted it… oh that’s right, because governments don’t always follow majority opinion!

  47. “And quite frankly I don’t give a shit what you or anyone else thinks about it. OK?”

    There you go JV, just the type of politician we need here ah?

  49. Bob: You might claim not to be a Liberal stooge, but you sure give a good impression of someone who dislikes Rudd, the ALP and Labor supporters on this board.

    I don’t dislike Rudd but I don’t like Rudd. Same with the ALP. The Labor supporters on this board don’t know when to stop and they are completely blinded by their support, be it media organisations they believe are biased, or Labor policies, or etc etc etc.

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