Newspoll: 52-48

Big shock from Newspoll: Labor’s two-party lead has slumped from 59-41 to 52-48, their smallest lead since the last poll prior to the 2007 election. The shift on preferred prime minister is much more modest, Kevin Rudd’s lead slipping from 65-19 to 63-19. It’s apparently also been reported both sides have shifted seven points on the primary vote, which would mean they are level on 41 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has had four points transfer from approve (59 per cent) to disapprove (32 per cent); Turnbull’s approval is steady on 32 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 51 percent.

It’s a very different story from Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead steady at 59-41. Supplementary questions show mixed messages on asylum seekers: one shows support for a tough line and an apparent belief that the Rudd government is delivering, but 55 per cent rate its handling of the issue “not so good/poor” against 36 per cent “excellent/good”. Significantly, a further question shows people do not think the Liberals would do any better.

UPDATE: Newspoll history records six reversals of comparable size. The poll of 6-8 November 1992 saw a 46-54 Labor deficit turn into a 54-46 lead, for what looked to be no readily obvious reason at the time. On 20-22 August 1993, immediately after John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget, the Coalition’s lead went from 51-49 to 60-40. On 23-25 September 1994, Labor went from 57-43 ahead to 51-49 behind in what looked like a correction following two consecutive horror surveys for Alexander Downer. When John Howard took over from him at the end of January 1995, the next survey of 10-12 February saw Labor’s 54-46 lead turn into a 53-47 deficit. The poll immediately after the 1998 election saw the Coalition turn a 53-47 deficit at the last (evidently inaccurate) pre-election poll into a 54-46 lead. Finally, on 28-30 May 2004, Labor under Mark Latham suffered a short-lived slump from 53-47 ahead to 54-46 behind.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  2. [Sky ran with the line that Stevens was happy with the Govt. spending and the stimulus should continue as set out (tapering off). ABC2 ran with the line that Stevens not happy. Fascinating to watch them spin the same thing different ways.]

    You must be mistaken. The ABC is fair and balanced. Janet and co were only put on the board to do origami.

  3. The ABC stinks!
    Did you all notice last night that Tony Jones did his best to freeze out everyone else on the Q&A panel except Hockey? I think I saw only about 5 minutes of Maxine…it was all Sloppy Joe and his big mouth! Thank goodness for David Marr!
    If Sky is becoming fairer than the ABC, you know we’ve got problems with the national broadcaster and its blatant anti-Labor agenda(but I shouldn’t be surprised, Mark Scott is a Liberal).

  5. I thought the audience was ok. Plenty of support for both sides. Hockey did get far too much aritime though, and barely answered a question.

  6. Vera – not only fun and games during Q&A but a bad night all round. A pack of huge, wild dogs chased our wallies down the paddock. Just hope they didn’t get any but its been too wet to go to have a look today. `1/2 way through Q&A when we wanted to hear David Marr the nuisance possum decided to really dance on the roof. So lots of yelling here last night.

    Dario – it’s fun to watch the spat between Sky and ABC today over Mark Scott’s new idea for spreading the ABC throughout SEAsia, etc. And then silly Minchin weighed in to say it was Labor trying to spread its wings further. Why does that fella never look past the 3 year election cycle.

  7. I must be watching a different ABC because I watch it frequently enough and fail to see any substantial anti-Labor bias. Reminds me a lot of claims by the Coalition that the ABC are secretly militant leftists. I suppose some peoples’ view of impartiality or balance is supporting their own side of politics and reporting nothing else.

  8. Something has to be done about the ABC!
    I nearly kicked the nearest passer by when Alison Carrabine told us that ‘at least Howard’s border protection policies worked’. I wonder in what sense she was using the word ‘worked’?

    Anybody else think TJ looks altogether too pleased with himself, particularly when he gets a laugh from the audience. He should be reminded that it’s not about him when a program is supposed to be about audience participation and the moderator ends up asking twice as many questions as the audience!

  9. Send Tony Jones to a commercial network, the man is in love with himself, he’s ceased to be an impartial interviewer/commentator.
    Leigh Sales to host Lateline permanently, and Q&A too!

  12. [program is supposed to be about audience participation]

    Supposed to be about the participation of Liberal politicians and Young Liberal rent-a-crowd toffs.

  13. Perhaps Tony Jones gave Hockey more time to balance up the fact that there were THREE lefties to TWO righties. Of course, that wasn’t biased against the Right, was it?

  15. How much would we get if we sold “our” ABC to Murdock?
    Just asking, it might pay for a few more nursing homes and health workers for our aging population or some other good cause.
    Better use for the money and the coverage would be the same with Murdock running the show, heck it would be “fair and balanced” then 👿

  17. [LOL – Graham Richardson would resent being labelled as a lefty.]

    If there ever was a Labor hack, Richardson would be it.

  18. as one of the constant abc bashers here,I must disagree re last nights qanda.

    letting the liberals VI have his say was priceless.

    as regards tony jones, like him or loathe him, he is more impartial than many give him credit for.

  20. I’ve heard that their ABC has been known to ring around lawyers’ clubs, chambers of commerce and the like to intentionally seek out Liberal-friendly “audiences” for QandA.

  21. Great, AGL wants to spend $800 million to increase the capacity of S.A.’s Torrens Island gas power station by nearly 60%
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26312728-5006301,00.html

    One benefit of this could be enabling S.A. to export power to Victoria during cooler months, which would enable them to shut down a couple of their black coal burners.

    So over all it may help reduce emissions for Australia as a whole, but it will certainly increase S.A.’s emissions, and just make it harder to hit Rann’s target of 30% renewable energy by 2020.

  22. [to intentionally seek out Liberal-friendly “audiences” for QandA.]
    No. They actually did this to try to find more balanced audiences. If you watch episodes of Q&A from early on, the audiences were almost completely full of left wingers. This was bad for the show, because it gave the impression that the questions were all biased.

  23. Looked to me last night as tho there were a lot of Joe’s friends from his electorate there. They clapped him before he got started at times. Only mates would do that – the rest of us would wait to hear exactly what he had to say.

  24. [2007 – of course that over looks the fact that an independent study found the ABC’s news most biased against Labor.]

    What would academics know. Janet and friends are only on the ABC board to give horse racing tips.

  25. [Looked to me last night as tho there were a lot of Joe’s friends from his electorate there]

    The ABC studio is in his electorate I believe, so that’s probably the case

  26. Showson 2021

    Gas is a good ally to wind power too, because it has a short start up time and can be used when the wind isn’t blowing. Also the latest generation of super heated gas plants are very efficient (lower CO2). I don’t know the details, but Torrens gas expansion may not be a bad thing.

  28. [They intentionally sought (seek) Liberal “audiences”. That’s bias.]

    If it was just to even up their audiences then I don’t have a problem with it, but it’s certainly a bad look, either for them or for the lazy ass Lib supporters who need to be dragged there in the first place.

  29. [They intentionally sought (seek) Liberal “audiences”. That’s bias.]

    No. They intentionally sought an audience that reflected the Australian voters. That’s democracy.

  31. Paul from Berwick @ 2016
    Good article. Proves the point that there is absolutely no need for the current reactionary climate on refugees. Important to realise that the study in the article was looking at the push and pull factors as they apply to all asylum seekers, and not just those arriving by boat.

    Now we need to ask why the government isn’t ramming this sort of information down the electorate’s throat, to educate the fearful?

    The answer, of course, as the article says, the “the relentlessly reductionist political debate” – i.e. cheap pandering politics, while they allow the xeno-beast to remain at large.

  32. [Now we need to ask why the government isn’t ramming this sort of information down the electorate’s throat, to educate the fearful?]

    I’ve heard them mention these things quite a lot, but the media doesn’t give it much play because the fear factor sells more papers

  33. Dario – I thought his electorate was on the other side of the bridge. ABC is sort of Sydney CBD (or just a few streets away). Someone might know for sure.

  34. if you read the tweets #qanda you get quite a good perspective of the feelings of last nights tv audience.

    most libs saying tj was being hard on joe (i …you not).
    the majority were generally laughing at how buffoonish hockey was.

    my fav was some duffus saying how lefties had taken over twitter
    😉

  35. [He said the gunman was in a stable condition in custody and was not answering questions.

    Asked if the major was in danger of dying, he said: “I would his death is imminent.”]

    Can anyone explain how the Texas gunman can be in a stable condition and be about to die?

  36. [To artificially intervene in the make-up of the audience – to the advantage of one side – is bias.]
    If the audience each week is only full of left wingers, then right wingers wouldn’t bother watching the show, which would immediately devalue the show.

  39. Dario spake thus:
    [I’ve heard them mention these things quite a lot, but the media doesn’t give it much play]
    Really? Except it is in fact the media that is giving this study ‘play’. I certainly haven’t heard any minister doing so at all. The sort of leadership that this issue requires is the equivalent of a Watsonian Redfern Speech and more to hose down the fires of unreason. It won’t be sufficient just to ‘mention these things’.

    But it won’t happen while the government remains paralysed by the fears of the fearful.

  40. [Now we need to ask why the government isn’t ramming this sort of information down the electorate’s throat, to educate the fearful?]
    How simple. All they need to do is ram it down their throats and the people will shed their years of fears and bias and everyone will be all happy and free. Utopia. Hell, even the opposition may believe it.

  41. Gosh you ALPers are paranoid!
    Jones is not a Liberal sympathizer as far as Im aware and he seemed quite balanced to me last night – he staired down Hockey on that leadership question and wouldn’t move on till he answered. Like Dio said – 3 lefties on the panel to 2 right-wingers, hence the supposed evening out. They release statistics on how many words each panelist made so we will find out eventually anyway.

    The only poor performer on last nights Q&A was that Liberal lady, Marr was brilliant and the rest were okay. Politics aside if we only consider personality then Hockey is my favorite Liberal.

    Does anyone know anything of Jones’ history that would suggest conservative leanings? Tiggy on lateline business is a blatant conservative – no doubt went to some posh private school, she’s an upper class twit, and what sort of name is Tiggy anyway? Kerry isn’t right-wing and nor was Maxine. Get over these fantasies! If there weren’t any right-wingers in the audience then the Right would have genuine reason for concern about bias against them, hence the deliberate policy of evening it out – if Left-wingers wouldn’t rock up then it would be the other way round. Besides if they had an overwhelmingly left-wing audience then right-wing people wouldn’t agree to go on the show: It needs an even audience to work.

  43. I suppose the appointment of Porky Piers and Andrew Bolt – two of the most rabidly anti-Labor commentators in Australia – as regulars on Onesiders is just done in the name of “balance” and “democracy” too. Yes, Janet is on the Board for the racing tips (thanks Dario). A purely benevolent and democratically-motivated appointment by Honest John.

  44. [http://blogs.crikey.com.au/contentmakers/2009/11/06/so-whats-the-cool-new-toy/]

    Here you go – Rupert’s idea for reading future content

  45. You forgot to count TJ there Diogenes. Makes it 4-2 which has been the case on every Q&A this year.
    The reason Joe got so much air time was because the others were once again trying to make the Libs the focus.
    Sorry, didn’t work this time.
    JH fought off the bias & bile & won the day & don’t you all hate it!

  46. [Dario – I thought his electorate was on the other side of the bridge. ABC is sort of Sydney CBD (or just a few streets away). Someone might know for sure.]

    You’re right. The old studios were at Gore Hill in his electorate. Forgot they moved.

    [Really? Except it is in fact the media that is giving this study ‘play’. I certainly haven’t heard any minister doing so at all. The sort of leadership that this issue requires is the equivalent of a Watsonian Redfern Speech and more to hose down the fires of unreason. It won’t be sufficient just to ‘mention these things’.]

    Oh please. Smith has mentioned push factors such as the war in SL every time he is interviewed, and Maxine mentioned it last night. Not surprisingly, the media doesn’t care and are running with the ‘Howard stopped the boats’ mantra.

  47. [ TWO of Australia’s most powerful unions – the Maritime Union of Australia and the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union – will donate $10,000 to the 78 asylum-seekers locked in a stand-off with crew aboard the Customs vessel Oceanic Viking. ]
    That is an impressive move – Great propaganda. They are putting their money where their mouth is and in so doing adding pressure on the government. Well done MUA & CFMEU!

  49. Jv, it still isn’t that simple I’m afraid. Good in theory but…..
    That article, by the way, has something for everyone in it. I reckon the Libs will go, “There you go, we told ya.”

  50. I agree Richo wouldn’t really qualify as a lefty but for these purposes he does since in the silly ALP/COALition stoushes over nothing significant (often where they actually have identical policies anyway) then he would take the ALP line. Politics is sometimes like children’s games: “I know you are, you said you are, but what am I?” In this context he counts as ALP.

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