Big shock from Newspoll: Labor’s two-party lead has slumped from 59-41 to 52-48, their smallest lead since the last poll prior to the 2007 election. The shift on preferred prime minister is much more modest, Kevin Rudd’s lead slipping from 65-19 to 63-19. It’s apparently also been reported both sides have shifted seven points on the primary vote, which would mean they are level on 41 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has had four points transfer from approve (59 per cent) to disapprove (32 per cent); Turnbull’s approval is steady on 32 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 51 percent.
It’s a very different story from Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead steady at 59-41. Supplementary questions show mixed messages on asylum seekers: one shows support for a tough line and an apparent belief that the Rudd government is delivering, but 55 per cent rate its handling of the issue “not so good/poor” against 36 per cent “excellent/good”. Significantly, a further question shows people do not think the Liberals would do any better.
UPDATE: Newspoll history records six reversals of comparable size. The poll of 6-8 November 1992 saw a 46-54 Labor deficit turn into a 54-46 lead, for what looked to be no readily obvious reason at the time. On 20-22 August 1993, immediately after John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget, the Coalition’s lead went from 51-49 to 60-40. On 23-25 September 1994, Labor went from 57-43 ahead to 51-49 behind in what looked like a correction following two consecutive horror surveys for Alexander Downer. When John Howard took over from him at the end of January 1995, the next survey of 10-12 February saw Labor’s 54-46 lead turn into a 53-47 deficit. The poll immediately after the 1998 election saw the Coalition turn a 53-47 deficit at the last (evidently inaccurate) pre-election poll into a 54-46 lead. Finally, on 28-30 May 2004, Labor under Mark Latham suffered a short-lived slump from 53-47 ahead to 54-46 behind.
[Antony GREEN
Posted Thursday, November 5, 2009 at 7:15 am | Permalink
No Fredn. A 7% swing means 7% of the population have changed. In the case of this weeks Newspoll, the 7% swing was a 7% swing, but that reduced a 14% lead to 0. If the Labor vote drops by 1% and Liberal vote rises by 1%, the swing is 1%, but the gap between the parties changes by 2%.]
Yes I now see that you are right. The Labor party vote went down 7%.
Oz
[ Heysen Molotov,
In Senate races in most states, The Greens main opposition isn’t the Liberals but the potential for major party preferences to elect random minor party candidates. Like Fielding and the DLP in Victoria. ]
Oh yeah, I suppose thats true.
A friend brought this site to my attention, and this looked apt for Oz’s points today:
HTM, what I’m saying is that there are quite a considerable number of environmentalists in the Labor party. They’re there because they recognise that that way they can achieve some of what they want to (as opposed to diddley squat).
It’s not a case of infiltrating, it’s a case of being real about the best way to get things done.
And of course, it happens all over the world, don’t be silly. It’s not an organised thing, just a case of looking at the options and working out where one can be most effective.
Oz, you’ve given us a list of items in NSW which need action. If someone really wanted to change these things, yes, they’d join one of the majors. It’s highly unlikely that the Greens are going to be able to change any of them.
Strategically, if you did want to change things, now would be a good time to join the NSW ALP. Come the electoral wipeout, a lot of the current players will vanish from the scene and a nice vacuum will be created. This creates lots of opportunity to acquire the influence needed within the party to make things happen.
Come the inevitable resurgence, even if you don’t hold a position of power, a lot of people who were nobodies in the party when you joined and met them will now be somebodies, and you have their ear.
And, as a general comment: I’ve been involved in a lot of conversations within the Labor party about policy direction on environmental issues. I have never, not once, heard anyone, not an adviser, not a Minister, not a rank and file member, even refer to the possibility of getting preferences from the Greens as a reason to back a policy.
The idea that the Greens act a ‘ginger group’ which forces the ALP to act on certain environmental issues is a total furphy.
[If someone really wanted to change these things, yes, they’d join one of the majors.]
This is absolute crap.
It’s like saying in 2004 if you wanted to improve industrial relations from a worker’s perspective you should join the Liberal Party.
FauxNews FakeNews FoxVomit – according to the Muppets it is PoxNews
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/04/sesame-street-trashes-pox_n_345510.html
Anyone else want to guess tonight’s left to right lineup on Q&A; after all, it is the first Thursday in November.
[vp: Sloppy, Richo, Kerry, Maxine, David.
scorpio: Richo, David, Kerry, Maxine, Sloppy.
Dario: Four Eyes, Sloppy, Shocker, Tubby, Killer]
Oz
part of the decision assessing which party you are most likely to be able to influence (and which party’s members you could most comfortably work with!).
Joining the Greens to achieve environmental outcomes was never an option where I was concerned. I don’t want to spend years and years working for no real results – that’s soul destroying stuff.
As I said, I’m impatient. I want to see that I’ve actually achieved something.
Oz, I think you do not understand what zoomster is saying to make that response. It’s a false analogy and suggests you’ve either not read or thought about what she’s had to say. Either that or you think there can be no one within the Labor Party or government with genuine concerns for the environment.
Have to say it’s interesting how many people I know from the environment movement who started off as observers of the political process – journalists, academics – joined Labor when they decided that they wanted to become politically active.
I haven’t talked through the process with them, but assume that they made much the same decision I did, that it was worth putting up with the frustrations, compromises and sillinesses inherent the ALP to achieve action on the issues they cared about.
Had anyone heard of the external affairs powers in the constitution before Bob Hawke stopped the dam?
Zoomster
You realize if we are to make this economy sustainable that this will require a social, economic and political revolution? We are so far from the goal and I can’t see the revolution happening under the same old personel. As OZ says, your argument is that in order to imrove workers rights you should join the Liberal Party.
And Zoomster answer me this: who has done the most to protect the environment George W Bush or Ralph Nader? On your lodgic Bush has because he did a few pathetic gestures while in office while Nader hasn’t been in office to do anything.
There’s been some discussion about the next poll.
It’s been a month, so Nielsen is due out on Monday.
But, it wouldn’t surprise me if Gary Morgan published just one week’s results tomorrow, from his face to face polling over last weekend.
It wouldn’t surprise me if he conducted a phone poll on wed and thu nights to publish tomorrow as well. Possibly even some additional questions re the asylum seeker issue.
He has done this in the past, if he feels there’s something that can be found.
Would a National Party Govt in Qld have stopped land clearing on 20 million hectares of native bushland?
Would a Green government have invested so heavily in coal or propossed a pathetic CO2 target and in the process doomed the economy?
HM – list Nader’s environmental achievements.
Oh dear, dreaming of a revolution, are we? Not going to happen. I’m an anarchist at heart myself, but have come to recognise that it’s better to work with what we have.
And very few revolutions achieve what they say they’re going to, anyway. The only successful one (as in, it achieved its stated aims and has done so over a long period of time) was the American one.
Most other revolutions, even if they succeed in overthrowing the existing regime, either end up with something very like it again or morph into something totally unlike the original objective.
Actually, I was thinking about the whole problem of the people of Africa and climate change on the way home from work tonight before I had a look at the latest flame war going on here. I was probably thinking about Africa and climate change because we have a lot of African refugees in our catchment area, Ethiopians, Somalis, Sudanese, so I get to talk with them. The hideous wars and internecine conflict these people have fled are likely to become even more vicious, if past behaviour is any indicator of future behaviour, and it is about the most reliable.
Perhaps instead of stupid flame wars, we might actually discuss how we are going to respond to more and increasingly traumatised refugees. You need to understand that refugees who are traumatised will need more from us to cope. Our mental health resources are already stretched, for instance, I spent 5 hours this afternoon shifting 3 people out of our acute psych unit to clear the Emergency Dept. of 3 people.
For instance, a man who tried to chop off his arm with a boning knife because he felt so helpless to get the rest of his family out from a place that does chop people’s arms off if they don’t cooperate.
Do you reckon you might have a think about these things seriously rather than the under-graduate point scoring that passes for debate?
Folks – I’m a sceptical about this Newspoll as the next guy. However….
The most recent points for cross-reference (Essential and Morgan) both seem to be aggregates over two weekends. One weekend before OV blew up in Rudd’s face, and one after it blew up
Maybe Essential and Morgan didn’t agree with Newspoll because they weren’t as focussed
THM
[On your lodgic Bush has because he did a few pathetic gestures while in office while Nader hasn’t been in office to do anything.]
That’s a REALLY bad example. Nader gave us FOUR years of the Bush Government rather than Gore. Nader has done more damage to the globe than any other man on the planet. And I mean that literally.
Oh, and in case there’s any doubt, that last post was aimed squarely at the Green supporters who seem to think inside a bubble with bugger all connection to anything real in relation to refugees for starters.
z
[And very few revolutions achieve what they say they’re going to, anyway. The only successful one (as in, it achieved its stated aims and has done so over a long period of time) was the American one.]
I agree. Rudd’s Education Revolution has been all sizzle no sausage. 😉
[For instance, a man who tried to chop off his arm with a boning knife because he felt so helpless to get the rest of his family out from a place that does chop people’s arms off if they don’t cooperate.]
[Oh, and in case there’s any doubt, that last post was aimed squarely at the Green supporters who seem to think inside a bubble with bugger all connection to anything real in relation to refugees for starters.]
HSO
I’m struggling with the logic here.
So you’re arguing the we should adopt Labor’s position and deter refugees from fleeing by boat so they stay in a country where they get their hands chopped off.
[we might actually discuss how we are going to respond to more and increasingly traumatised refugees]
The blunt and honest answer to that question is that we are not going to take more and increasingly traumatised refugees. In the short term, there is no political support for increasingly our refugee quota. In the longer term, if the science is right, large parts of the tropical world are going to suffer ecological catastrophes over the next half-century as a result of climate change. Tens of millions of people will be looking for new homes. The western countries will simply pull up their drawbridges and not let them in.
HO – apologies, you are right, we are quibbling about splinters when there are planks to be talked about.
Mental health, as you know, is not a ‘sexy’ issue and thus gets swept under the table lots. Even those – a fairly major proportion of our society – who have suffered from mental health problems are reluctant to advocate for it, because of the stigma admitting to a mental health problem suffers (and the real difficulties it creates if, for example, you are foolish enough to admit to one on an employment health questionaire!)
If you run the argument (which I don’t disagree with) that we need more mental health services to cope with the post traumatic problems suffered by refugees, this will be used as evidence that we shouldn’t let them in in the first place.
So it’s another long termer. We have to work at educating people so that they understand that having a mental health problem isn’t fundamentally different from having an acquired work injury, or arthritis, or a dicky knee. We need to create a situation where people can discuss their depression or mania at work with the same casualness that they can discuss the problems they’re having with their eyesight.
While we whisper about mental health issues behind closed doors, we’re not going to get the kind of action that’s needed.
Oh dear, I don’t sound at all helpful.
It’s one that stumps me. I’ve been asked to work on policy to do with post natal depression and anorexia nervosa services in rural and regional areas and I have to admit, I didn’t know how to begin to tackle it.
Oh, I see, pointless point scoring prevails. Terrific contribution, Diog. Masterful nitpicking, Mr. Squiggle.
HSO
We need to make their home countries better. Through aid and assistance. CC will possibly help this, if we develop very cheap polymer solar technology (along the lines that CSIRO are working on) we would be able to quickly and cheaply provide these people with electricity.
“Oh, and in case there’s any doubt, that last post was aimed squarely at the Green supporters who seem to think inside a bubble with bugger all connection to anything real in relation to refugees for starters.”
This comment is rather unfortunate, the Greens don’t normally start these ‘flame wars’ – typically it is either baiting by Frank or GG or Vera, or it is Psephos telling bob1234 he is a Troll. Your comment is actually part of this problem, by making accusations that we are in a bubble (a rather pointless insult). The current ‘flame war’ isn’t really a flame war, but more a discussion about how power plays out. For some reason Zoomster thinks you need the most power (ie be in Govt) to effect any change – this is poor logic, Zoomster needs to read his Macchiavelli.
I should have said ‘big’ not ‘major’ but I’m sure you all allowed for hyperbole!
Diog, I agree with you about the Education Revolution. A couple of laptops and lots of school halls do not a revolution make. But still, it’s nice to hear the words!!
The difficulty with education policy and the Labor party is that true reform means upsetting teachers. The teaching profession is the backbone of the Labor party in many ways, especially at State level. Unions carry a lot of oomph when it comes to the inner workings of the party but when you want someone to hand out how to vote cards, then it’s chalkies you’re relying on.
Astrobleme
[For some reason Zoomster thinks you need the most power (ie be in Govt) to effect any change – this is poor logic, Zoomster needs to read his Macchiavelli.]
Err…who would agree with me. His book was called ‘The Prince’.
Oh, and giving people cheap electricity isn’t going to stop their neighbours chopping their arms off.
Thanks HSO – pointless point scoring,, appears to be my forte!!!
HSO
Your argument is completely illogical, should not have been allowed to go unchallenged and I pointed that out. I make no apology for a strong stance on logic protection.
Zoomster
Err no…. Maybe you should read it again.
Zoomster
Sorry, yes the book was The Prince. And no he wasn’t declaring that to get what you wanted you had to have the most power.
Diogens, you seem to have missed the point that the person who tried to chop their arm off was already here by virtue of the existing humanitarian program. We already have significant numbers of people who are deeply disturbed or have no idea how to navigate an alien environment or who hit the grog in order to cope, that our existing health and welfare systems, already struggling to cope, are just getting more and more stretched. I’m saying this is a significant problem in an area such as north and west Melbourne, and get really cross with those who say well we just let in whomever turns up and claims to be a refugee.
Astrobleme, it is called ‘The Prince’. It is advice for rulers on how to govern.
He would have really like my suggestion about joining NSW Labor.
Pointing out how awful other countries are to live in is not an argument for allowing everyone in those countries to come and live in this country. As I said at 1723, this situation is going to become much worse quite soon, and the western countries are to become more defensive about refugees as this happens.
western countries are to become more defensive = western countries are certain to become more defensive
[I make no apology for a strong stance on logic protection.]
diog, if i were you, i stick to border protection 😛
Zoomster
Yes… And the advice is… You don’t have to start with all the power. You need to use the power you have to get what you want through alliances etc.
He was writing it for the Medici’s in Italy when it was fragmented and no one had enough power to rule it all.
So in the case of the Greens, with their 6 Senators, they have a valuable block. As long as no other single party has more than 50% of the House they will be able to influence what goes on.
1738
Astrobleme, believe me, Machiavelli would still prefer his Prince to be a Labor Senator rather than a Green one!
He would be the first to recognise that power beats influence any day.
Psephos
So do you see aid and assistance as vital here? My thoughts were that helping them get their home countries fixed would be the best thing.
Four Corners, Monday. “Malcolm and the Malcontent’s”! Could be interesting!
Zoomster
We have an ecological emergency, would you not agree? A massive change is needed to address this emergency, would you not agree? Such change is impossible if we do not capaign for it or if we only put a bandaid on the problem, would you not agree?
Supporting the ALP is extremely counter-productive because in so doing you are supporting the status quo – the status quo that is still investing in coal. You are supporting very ugly elements within the ALP that aren’t prepaired to do make the change.
My Father was in the ALP Left, he was the top dog in his branch and was on the state wide policy committee. His branch, which was full of lefties put forward heaps of motions, all ignored by the Right that run the party. He put a lot of effort into a policy to legalize marijuanna but the senior ranks ignored it, ditto with a policy he made to lower unemployment by lowering the working week – again ignored. He quit the party because we were getting no where as it drifted further Right.
So if Bob Brown joined the ALP not only would he have his motions ignored after putting in a lot of work he would also be bound by oath to accept a line he strongly opposes and couldn’t even openly campaign (at demonstrations etc) to have it changed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That would make him useless.
[diog, if i were you, i stick to border protection ]
I would suggest that very twisting road to damascus
HSO
All of your comments about refugees are true. I see quite a few who have been tortured and beaten from the ME and Africa. There are huge problems with looking after them. We have reduced the % of refugees we take as a proportion of our immigrant intake over the last ten years. We are taking much less than we did 20 years ago.
Psephos
[The western countries will simply pull up their drawbridges and not let them in.]
How do you pull up a drawbridge around Australia?
Zoomster
You just ned to remember there is more than one way to skin a cat. You may personally believe that the only way to affect change is to be on the biggest team, but that’s simplistic.
OK HSO – I went back and read your 1717.
It goes to a point that’s been bouncing around my head for a few years now.
Are you suggesting a grading system for refugess, (for example like the different types of travel warnings) to help prioritise refugees? for example:
country A – situation pretty bad, but no systemic slaughter going on,
country B – situation worse than A, people getting disappeared occassionally, but not quite civil war
country C – Hell on earth, open conflict, full on disaster – humanity streaming out
So far, I haven’t distinguished between refugees. I assume they all have terrible stories to tell and once determined to be genuine, are in equal need of shelter
[vp: Sloppy, Richo, Kerry, Maxine, David.
scorpio: Richo, David, Kerry, Maxine, Sloppy.
Dario: Four Eyes, Sloppy, Shocker, Tubby, Killer]
And the result was: Sloppy, Four Eyes, Killer, Tubby, Shocker
And the winner of the coveted Goldilocks My Chair Award goes to no one.
However, as the person most at odds with the ABC’s management judgement of seat allocations, scorpio gets to be the Poll Pludger nominee for moderator at next year’s Q&A.
No correspondence will be entered into.
Yep, agree with ecological emergency, need for massive change, need to campaign.
So how are you going to change the status quo? Please explain.
In my dark moments, I tend to think our civilisation has reached the point all civilisations do, where it knows what’s wrong with it but has reached the stage where it’s impossible to make the changes necessary. Rome knew it was doomed if it didn’t change, some of the emperors (who had absolute power to an extent undreamt of by any of our political parties) made gallant efforts to make these changes, but it still collapsed.
In the end, all I can say is that I’m working to make the changes I think are necessary in the best way I know how.
Any significant movement in the last week would have shown up.
Morgan if anything showed a tiny increase for Labor in the last week of OV.
October 3/4 & 10/11
61/39
60/40
October 17/18 & 24/25
61/39
60.5/39.5
No hint of any movement in ER
ER
2/11
59/41
26/10
59(+1)/41(-1)