Newspoll: 59-41

The third Newspoll in consecutive weeks is another disaster for the Coalition, showing Labor’s lead widening still further despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals. Labor is now ahead 59-41 on two-party preferred, compared with 58-42 at both last week’s unusual poll and last fortnight’s usual one. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down two points to 65 per cent while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up one to 19 per cent. UPDATE: Graphic here: interestingly, 4 per cent has marched from satisfied with Kevin Rudd to dissatisfied, but Malcolm Turnbull’s disapproval rating is up six points as well. Labor leads 48 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote.

Elsewhere:

• Labor’s lead is steady at 58-42 according to the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which seems to be more closely resembling Newspoll than it used to. There are also various questions on the parties’ approaches to the global financial crisis and the rise in interest rates.

Sue Neales of The Mercury reports Matthew Groom, son of former Premier Ray Groom, has nominated for Liberal preselection in the state lower house division of Denison. Neales suggests the “corporate lawyer with Tasmanian state-owned wind power company Roaring 40s” is likely to win a spot on the ticket when the party finalises preselection on Monday, which it earlier deferred because party leaders were “concerned by a lack of high-profile talent” (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham clarifies the situation in comments: Elise Archer, Michael Hodgman and Matt Stevenson were preselected in March, and the remainder of the ticket is to be finalised on Monday). Others reportedly seeking preselection are veteran incumbent Michael Hodgman, who is 70 years old and battling ill health which recently forced him to relinquish the Shadow Attorney-General position; Jenny Branch, a Glenorchy alderman who polled strongly as an independent against Treasurer Michael Aird in his upper house seat of Derwent in April; and Elise Archer, a Hobart alderman. Another Hobart alderman, regular independent candidate Marti Zucco, has been mentioned as a starter, but appears to face powerful opposition in the Liberal organisation. The result in Denison at the 2006 election was Labor three, Liberal one and Greens one; Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics rates the Liberals a solid chance of taking a second seat, possibly at the expense of accident-prone Labor incumbent Graeme Sturges.

• The Queensland Greens have preselected their unsuccessful Senate candidate from 2007, Larissa Waters, to head their ticket at the next election. Waters prevailed in a three-way contest over Jenny Stirling and Libby Connors, party activists and frequent candidates respectively based in Townsville and Toowoomba.

• Republished courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble, Malcolm Mackerras in the Canberra Times lambasts Peter Dutton and his supporters over his reluctance to stand and fight in Dickson, and confidently predicts he will now not only contest the seat but win it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. [Are you saying that if Jews with enough money to flee the Holocaust wanted refugee status, we should have said “No” and waited for poorer ones to apply?]

    Not an analogous situation. The world in the 1930s did not have millions of poor people trying to move to wealthy countries. It had a relatively small number of political or religious refugees – there were only 500,000 Jews in Germany in 1933. That was the assumption on which the 1951 refugee convention was written, which is why it’s now obselete.

  2. [So answer my question.]
    Well, how demanding 🙂

    Kevin would construct it like this:
    Am I saying all these illegal immigrants have no money at all? No, I’m not. In fact these illegal immigrants come from countries like Afghanistan that included many people aspiring to be middle-class, and who are educated. These are the very people directly targeted by the Taliban. Some of them even have enough money to help friends with no money who are also political targets of the Taliban with no money.

    So if you’re asking me if I were facing persecution by the Taliban and I had a modest nest-egg under the bed, would I scarper and become an illegal immigrant and take as many of my friends as I could before all of us are shot? Well, my answer to you is, yes I would.

  3. [We are rich people in my country, we all have big houses and farms, but we have no life there,” said 35-year-old teacher Kalla, as her two young sons gathered about her legs. Alex, a former English teacher with an American twang thanks to a previous job in a call centre, said the migrants each paid 15,000 dollars to people smugglers and flew in groups from Sri Lanka to Malaysia. ]

    Thanks for posting that, Gusface. It proves two points very nicely.
    * These people are not poor and desperate refugees. They are wealthy people who have decided that they’d rather live in Australia than Sri Lanka.
    * They knew where they were going, and they knew that what they were doing was illegal.

    I don’t doubt that life is tough for Sri Lankan Tamils at present. But there are 3 million of them, and I don’t see why it’s Australia’s responsibility to resettle them. If we are going to resettle people who want to leave Sri Lanka, I particularly don’t see why we should take those who are rich enough to fly to Malaysia in preference to others.

  4. [Did Peter just say that Kevin is better than Bob Carr and Beattie?]

    Dutton must be sucking up to Rudd to see if he can land a job through him after he is tossed out at the next election!!! 🙂

  5. [Do the Liberals have any strong media performers? I’m beginning to wonder….]

    I’d be struggling to name most of their shadow ministers, they are so anonymous!
    And Tuckey hogs all the headlines, so much so that you’d forget that he’s a humble backbencher.

  6. BTW Julie Bishop proved today that she’s unfit to be Deputy Liberal Leader, but consider the female alternatives to her on the Liberal frontbench: Sharman Stone, Helen Coonen. I rest my case LOL

  7. [* These people are not poor and desperate refugees. They are wealthy people who have decided that they’d rather live in Australia than Sri Lanka.]

    This group like the Canadian one sounds more and more likely to be looking for short cut immigration and shopped around. Indian is the most obvious safe place they could have gone to very quickly if they were genuinely in fear of their life. There reason for making their way to Australia seems to be to seek a better standard of living.

    I guess Australian, Indonesia and India could come to an agreement that resettles Tamils refugees and would be immigrants to India where they would be among their own culture and safe.

  8. The Liberals are in a terrible spot. They cannot win the election with a primary vote % in the 30s. Redistributions are adding further pain in a number of seats. Add to that the lack of agenda for the country, the lack of a vision, or any coherence around what they would do as the so-called alternative government, and things are likely to get very messy when we go to the polls.

    But amazingly none of this seems to be registering! This is now the second coalition frontbencher i’ve seen on Lateline this week who has turned in a woeful performance for their party with recycled and debunked news ltd talking points. There’s no attempt to engage meaningful thoughts that are even halfway credible. Sharman Stone: “We are not the government, we don’t need to say what we’d do”. Peter Dutton: “Once people see the REAL Rudd they’ll realise they were duped and come back to us.” It’s actually embarrassing.

  9. johncanb
    [This is where Chris Ullmann was quite silly in his blog to imply that Rudd shouldn’t bring moral arguments into political debates. Its all morality mate.]

    Dangerous territory there. The distinction is between real morality and organised religions’ version of it. The former is excellent, the latter leads to Stephen Conroy and net censorship, and one Ms Keneally banning T-shirts laughing at the pope.

  10. [These people are not poor and desperate refugees. They are wealthy people who have decided that they’d rather live in Australia than Sri Lanka.]
    If so, and the asylum seekers are rich country-shoppers why are 90% granted refugee status and residency?

  11. [A “positive campaign” from Peter. I don’t think so.]

    vp,
    ‘nowhere man” is going to be duttons campaign song.

    Psephos
    just making sure the facts get out there.

  12. Here’s how an expert in the field does a “dog whistle”!!!

    [FOUR days before the 2001 election John Howard directly raised the prospect there were terrorists concealed among the boatpeople arriving in Australia from Indonesia.

    It was a connection that was already at large in the minds of many Australians during an election that was fought in the shadow of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

    But it was the first time the then prime minister had actually made it and he chose an interview in the closing stages of the campaign with The Courier Mail’s Dennis Atkins to do it:

    Mr Howard said he was not saying in “any particular case any of the people on the boats were terrorists”.

    “I just don’t know but I think a country has got a perfect right to try and find out,” he said. “And the only way you can find out is for them to be processed in a proper and reasonable fashion.”

    Unrestricted entry meant “you don’t know who’s coming and you don’t know whether they do have terrorist links or not”.

    Mr Howard said it was a “perfectly natural concern” and there was “nothing alarmist or racist about that.”]
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/terrorists_on_boats_claim_dates_back_to_howard/

  13. [If so, and the asylum seekers are rich country-shoppers why are 90% granted refugee status and residency?]

    90% of the recent Sri Lankan arrivals are not being granted refugee status. Some have already been sent back, and I think that will be the trend. The correct solution to this problem is serious economic pressure on Sri Lanka to stop oppressing the Tamils, followed by the repatriation of all refugees.

    As for the Afghans and Iraqis, obviously we can’t send them back if that puts their lives in danger, so we give them the benefit of the doubt.

  14. I find it unlikely that terrorists would be on a boat, especially since 911 when nations have heightened sensitivity. They would be much easier to uncover if they placed themselves among a small group as on a boat.

  15. 1142

    With the Vietnamese in the Fraser years it slightly was different because the rich had more reason to flee because it was a Communist takeover. The whole issue is complex and goes into serious questions about what is fair and what is not.

  16. 1177

    Fixing the cause of the refugee movements is of course the best thing to do. As is fixing the causes of mass economic migration.

  17. Then again….

    [The Sri Lanka police have confirmed the identity of an alleged LTTE suspect who is believed to be among the 76 illegal asylum seekers who arrived in Canada on board a cargo ship last week.

    According to the police the suspect, identified by Canadian authorities as 26-year-old Kartheepan Manickavasagar, is on Interpol’s wanted list and is also being investigated by the Criminal Investigations Department (CID). ]

    http://www.dailymirror.lk/DM_BLOG/Sections/frmNewsDetailView.aspx?ARTID=65635

  18. [The correct solution to this problem is serious economic pressure on Sri Lanka to stop oppressing the Tamils, followed by the repatriation of all refugees.]

    But that’s the “correct” solution for any country with a regime oppressing some or all of its people. In the meantime the oppressed who are in fear of their lives and families’ well-being deserve compassion and re-settlement elsewhere, do they not?

    The Sri Lankan Government is so far thumbing its nose at the UN, and insists on vetting the displaced people in the camps (300,000 people at present) for Tamil sympathies before the UN can have access to process them – and we know what that means. Which leads me to …

    [Some have already been sent back, and I think that will be the trend.]
    A bit vague – are there any figures on the proportion of genuine refugees amomg Sri Lankan arrivals? If not, perhaps we should wait before slandering them.
    After all, there is no crisis in the numbers arriving here.

  19. this table from the UNHCR should help those determining numbers of IDP (internally displaced persons) that exist worldwide.
    The date range is 2000-2008.

  20. I doubt that the thought of Sri Lankans coming to Australia installs fear in anybody in Australia as we have a long familiarity with them through cricket and, familiarity at closer quarters helps remove fear and distrust. Sri Lankan immigrants are also common and seem to be well represented among our GPs and hospitals.

    I note that 60 minutes is going to do a story on this issue – 60 Minutes of a previous era would have given us something worthwhile, one can only imagine what the current version will produce. I guess they will try to guess at the position of Australians and try to play to that.

  21. [I note that 60 minutes is going to do a story on this issue – 60 Minutes of a previous era would have given us something worthwhile, one can only imagine what the current version will produce. I guess they will try to guess at the position of Australians and try to play to that.]

    I saw the promo – Dog Whistling and mixed in with a good dose of Howardism and Hansonism for good measure 🙁

  22. Thomas P
    [60 Minutes of a previous era would have given us something worthwhile, one can only imagine what the current version will produce. I guess they will try to guess at the position of Australians and try to play to that.]

    Almost certainly – no courageouos stuff there any more. Just like the main political parties I guess. Start where the dumbarses are and … stay with them.

  23. Gusface @ 1187
    [but this table shows where the sri lankans went from 2000-2008]
    Thanks for that – but I’m getting nothing but scribble on the WHO page …

  24. [In the meantime the oppressed who are in fear of their lives and families’ well-being deserve compassion and re-settlement elsewhere, do they not?]

    No, they deserve an end to ethnic oppression in their own country, where Tamils have lived for 2000 years. We can’t have a situation where every time there is a war or domestic conflict in a 3rd world country the 20 or so wealthiest countries are expected to provide new homes for everyone who wants to leave. We need a new international regime for the handling of refugees, whose primary objective is repatriation, not resettlement. Sri Lanka is not a large or wealthy country, and effective economic sanctions can and should be applied to make it behave.

  25. [We can’t have a situation where every time there is a war or domestic conflict in a 3rd world country the 20 or so wealthiest countries are expected to provide new homes for everyone who wants to leave]
    We don’t. I isn’t such a situation. There are strict criteria to establish refugee status. We have a UN Convention that has dealt with the ebba nd flow of displaced people with their lives at risk for a long time. The rest of the world has coped with much larger numbers arriving on their borders. Why should we panic asbout 1100 people on boats in need of help? Some modicum of objectivity please.

  26. [Why should we panic asbout 1100 people on boats in need of help?]

    It’s not a question of panic, it’s a question of sound policy. If you reward people-smuggling by taking in the people they smuggle, you only encourage more people to follow that route. These people didn’t need to come to Australia, they could have gone to India, but they chose to spend $15,000 getting here because it’s a more desirable place to live. That’s not my definition of desperation, nor is it a course of action that ought to be encouraged. What if all 3 million Sri Lankan Tamils decide to emigrate? Are the 20 most desirable wealthy country destinations obliged to take them all?

  27. TP – from your link
    That Tamil Tiger “terrorist” chap isn’t necessarily going to be deported from Canada. There must be a lot of Tamils who fought against the government and have now escaped whom the government is trying to paint as terrorists. Not surprising really. Their view doesn’t mean much though.
    [“The police spokesman stated that an inquiry was now underway in Canada after which the authorities would decide if the suspect would be deported back to Sri Lanka.”]

  28. psephos
    So we should get to the smugglers by punishing the people they smuggle? Really?

    And if you want to change the criteria for establishing refugee status, I’d suggest that is a new argument. I thought it was a UN standard across the world. Should we have a higher bar here?

  29. It’s not a question of the definition of a refugee, it’s a question of what the policy should be with regard to refugees. It should be repatriation, not resettlement. The 1951 convention, which was based on the experience of the 1930s, is completely obselete. We need a new convention which empowers the UNHCR to return refugees to their country of origin when this is possible, and when this is not possible to accommodate them temporarily until it is possible. In the case of Sri Lanka they should be accommodated in south India.

  30. psephos
    [We need a new convention which empowers the UNHCR to return refugees to their country of origin when this is possible, and when this is not possible to accommodate them temporarily until it is possible.]
    I think that is the essence of the embryonic Libs policy I heard some execrable shadow or former minister espousing on the ABC the other morning – temporary visas until things settle down after a few years, and then ‘hasta la vista baby’, mum, and dad – get on that plane. Charming.

  31. Don’t know if this has been mentioned
    [Sri Lanka, under pressure to release 250,000 Tamil civilians displaced in the final defeat of Tamil Tiger rebels, has begun resettling some who fled their homes more than two years ago.

    The top government administrator in the northern town of Vavuniya, PSM Charles, said 41,000 civilians were being released from camps and allowed to return home.]
    [The resettled civilians did not include more than 200,000 Tamils who were displaced by the massive final offensive against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) that ended the island’s long-running ethnic conflict in May.

    Under strong international pressure, the Sri Lankan government has promised to send at least 80 per cent of them home by the end of this year.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/sri-lanka-sends-home-displaced-civilians-20091023-hdhz.html

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