Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 55-45. This is “despite recent revelations of the Prime Minister’s expletive-laden tirade against factional bosses” which emerged after the poll was conducted. Both Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull have lost two points to “uncommitted” on preferred prime minister, Rudd now leading 65-17. More to follow.

UPDATE: Graphic here. The poll also features questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme. For what it’s worth, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are his best in two months.

Meantime, this week’s Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 59-41 to 58-42. Further questions find support for means testing the health insurance rebate, a slight majority against the previous government’s formula for private school funding, a slight majority finding their working hours have increased in the past 12 months, a slight tendency to credit/blame the Coalition over Labor with/for the past 25 years of economic reform, and strong support for the Australian Federal Police reopening investigations into the Balibo five deaths.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,517 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. These numbers, with the exception of the occasional rogue poll, have been remarkably consistent all year, and you can bet it frustrates the hell out of Milne and the other conservative media hacks that they can’t dent Rudd’s popularity.

  2. [55-45 is far more realistic. ]
    Yes, an absolute landslide.
    [Kelly O’Dwyer for Treasury Spokeswoman with Alex Hawke as leader.]
    LOL! Bring it on, if that is your team then 62 / 38 becomes a realistic possibility.

  3. Kelly O’Dwyer for leader and Josh Frydenberg as Deputy uber dream team GP time for us VICs to take over Turnbull does not make the NSW Division look like our saviour.

    Alex Hawke seems decent enough but he has the happy clapper connection that I dislike.

    We should have a female leader one of these days.

  4. Labor will benefit greatly from the ALP plus Greens having a majority in the Senate. That doesn’t mean ALP will move to left. They will be still perfectly happy to get most legislation through with support of Libs & Nats but will also have the option of getting legislation through which all others except Greens vote against. Don’t know how all the heat gets generated on these issues.

  5. [Labor will benefit greatly from the ALP plus Greens having a majority in the Senate. That doesn’t mean ALP will move to left. ]
    Once the Greens get the balance of power they will also have more responsibility than they have ever had. If they abuse the power, by not constructively working with the government, then it is possible their vote will decline in following elections. Some Green voters will just vote Labor or Liberal instead if they think the Greens turned out to be too obstructionist.

  6. 55/45 hasn’t moved much of late. The framing of this Newspoll in terms of Rudd having a “robust” go at the factional leaders is just silly.
    These people who own Newspoll know 4/5th. of Artichoke/all.

  7. We’ll take the 55%, bob. That a gain of about 15 seats. Remember that no first term federal government has ever had a swing towards it at the subsequent election. History beckons.

  8. When it comes to commenting on their Newspoll the OO really loves the word ‘despite’ doesn’t it?
    AS in “Rudd and the ALP have maintained their dominant lead and popularity despite …..[insert latest beatup here]”.

  9. [Labor hacks who are scared of the Greens.]
    This old hack wants the Greens to have the balance so they will be held accountable for their actions instead of hiding behind the bushes and letting the Libs take the heat! 🙂

  10. bob, you are SUCH a hypocrite.

    All this blathering about Laborites considering 62-48 to be realistic (name names), without any evidence to back you up.

    And then you say the Greens are ‘averaging’ 10%, which they’re not, according to any polling I’ve seen – pollytrack, for example, has them on 9.7 for the quarter.

    A few weeks ago, you predicted that newspoll would show ‘above 10%’ for the Greens (and implied this was normality). When it was below 10%, your commentary changed to ~10%, with no acknowledgement that you had said anything different (although you had a go at a couple of posters who questioned this).

    Look, everyone makes mistakes, get over excited about their team’s prospects, whatever, that’s not a sin. It’s the continual ‘I know better and am better than the rest of you’ tone that grates, and your refusal to acknowledge that you’re just as fallible (and partisan) as any of us.

  11. [Most likely outcome for election is 52/48 Labor’s way.]
    At least after the next election there won’t be any excuse for Turnbull, both Bishops, Tuckey, Andrews, and Ruddock staying in parliament.

  12. I know better and am better than the rest of you’ tone that grates, and your refusal to acknowledge that you’re just as fallible (and partisan) as any of us.

    -why do you continually attack percieved non labor posters?

    -Is this to be the sum of your contribution to debate?

  13. [why do you continually attack percieved non labor posters?]

    Indeed. I’m still a Labor supporter, i’d never vote Liberal, and in first past the post voting i’d be putting Labor 1.

  14. Indeed. I’m still a Labor supporter, i’d never vote Liberal, and in first past the post voting i’d be putting Labor 1.

    -greens 1,unless am oakshott type

    otherwise,sex party, at least you will get your bang for your buck.

  15. turk

    [-why do you continually attack percieved non labor posters?

    -Is this to be the sum of your contribution to debate?]

    I attack arguments. Some people make sillier arguments than others.

    Diogs is a non Labor poster, I rarely attack him (unless, of course, he’s wRONg, but then I rely on Finns to put him right).

    I frequently have arguments with Laborites (psephos and I got really snarky a while ago, can’t remember the issue).

    I made a beautiful contribution to the debate on climate change a couple of days ago!

  16. I’d like to weigh into trying to sort this debate, which is a regurgitation of any number of other debates , that seem to me to rest on any number of fallacies, but that would spoil the fun, wouldn’t it?
    Nnnnnnnnngh.

  17. [otherwise,sex party, at least you will get your bang for your buck.]

    Turk, in our Ottoman days, in the harem, everyday is a sex party.

  18. I attack arguments. Some people make sillier arguments than others.

    -You were part of the brigade that assailed myself when first i started to post here.

    Your posts speak much more tellingly than you beatiful contributions.

  19. Turk @ 33

    [Your posts speak much more tellingly than you beatiful contributions.]

    Well, that contribution was a post.

    [You were part of the brigade that assailed myself when first i started to post here.]

    My recollection is that you repeatedly asked whether or not people supported Gunns. You obviously were sincere in wanting an answer to this question, so I answered it. (If you were being fair, you would acknowledge that I was one of the only people to be polite enough to do so) You then ran a series of posts where you asked why I wasn’t responding (with an underlying accusation that I was running away from the discussion, rather than, as I explained to you, simply unavailable) so I responded.

    Obviously, when you ask questions or ask posters to respond to you, you are being insincere.

    I was foolish enough to believe that you wanted a discussion.

  20. Harry S Organs
    I saw your offer of treatment for PWS on the last thread and noted it being painful!
    Thanks but no thanks, you keep your rubber gloves away from me girlfriend! 👿

  21. was foolish enough to believe that you wanted a discussion.

    _thank you for response.

    I am glad you have confirmed that you have the memory span of a goldfish,and will endeavour to avoid your posts in future,except of course the indiscriminate attacks on non labor posters.

  22. [I am glad you have confirmed that you have the memory span of a goldfish,and will endeavour to avoid your posts in future,except of course the indiscriminate attacks on non labor posters.}

    Well, according to you, that’s all my posts consist of, so you’re going to read every one of them!

  23. [[I am glad you have confirmed that you have the memory span of a goldfish,and will endeavour to avoid your posts in future,except of course the indiscriminate attacks on non labor posters.}

    Well, according to you, that’s all my posts consist of, so you’re going to read every one of them!]

    Isn’t that one of the job duties to being a Greens Poster ? 🙂

  24. Frank,

    You example the impotence of Turk. He’s just a parasite riffing off the comments of others.

    Thinks he’s a wit . But, he’s just another Greens troll. We’ve had plenty of them before.

  25. [I think that’s enough Labor versus Greens for one evening.]

    Far enough, I’m busy over on The Worst Of Perth stoushing with some bush folk over their politically incorrect B& S advertising 🙂

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