Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria

The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey of Victorian state voting intention has Labor maintaining its formidable 56-44 lead on two-party preferred. Labor and the Coalition are both up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 43 per cent and the Coalition to 35 per cent, with the Greens down two to 12 per cent. John Brumby’s approval rating is down two points to 46 per cent, while Ted Baillieu’s is up two to 35 per cent. Baillieu has also made up some ground on preferred premier, with Brumby’s lead narrowing from 54-21 to 51-24.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

178 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. Ted has hung around for a long time with no chance of winning an election. Are there many leadership grumblings down there?

  2. Apparently a guy called Terry Mulder is the next cab off the rank for the Libs. I don’t live in Vic anymore so I know nothing about him. But I doubt anyone in Vic knows much about him either.

  3. Random point of interest: how are Labor looking in South Barwon next year compared to 2006? They were apparently going to lose that seat then, due to stuffing about with the new Geelong bypass road, but didn’t. Now that’s been built, is that annoying the locals more or less?

  4. Bob at 13: careful there. We elected some Liberal guy with gappy teeth… could happen to you too. It ain’t all about looks. 😉

    I remember a poster on here a while ago claming she didn’t like the Liberals much, but could be convinced to vote for them if Terry Mulder was leader. Good local member, apparently.

  5. [We elected some Liberal guy with gappy teeth… could happen to you too.]

    Unlikely. But as those images show, it doesn’t take being a guy or having gappy teeth to appear like tweedledee.

  6. Paul Austin has a long-running vendetta against the Labor Right. He’s a left-wing version of Glen Milne. Everything he writes is lies. But his crap about the bushfire royal commision over the past few days has been slanderous beyond belief.

  7. Interesting!

    Paul Austin and the Age Newspaper have been crapping on about anything and everything the Government does, half the time they are completely out of touch with what is happening or are several months old.

    The Liberals, lets see Red Ted has started putting out booklets outlining all the evils of the State Government but is yet to outline how he will manage the state, The Liberals have a very low profile within the communty.

    The alternative leader is Terry Mulder the MP for Polworth (similar) which is a rural seat that runs from Colac to the coast, in many ways his personality seems similar to Red Teds therefore i dont see him doing any better.

    I am a little surprised that the ALP are still so far in front but when the alternative is doing little then i guess that can be expected.

    Regarding seasts, i am inclinde to think the ALP will lose Seymour for this was a seat that copped some of the worst on Black Saturday, ironically the towns worst affected generally vote for the ALP so it will be interesting to keep a watch on how towns like St Andrews and Kinglake feel about the Government.

    I see the media are all of a sudden getting existed about Trams being overcrowded, showing that they clearly don’t use Trams for they are always overcrowded during peak, even during some non peak services.

  8. Psephos: Terry Mulder’s the best local MP we ever had out Geelong way, Labor or Liberal. He was a brilliant local member – and popular too, whacked Geelong football hero Paul Couch around when he ran for the Nats a few years back. Never had much chance of promotion until the 2002 election annihilated everyone above him, and then surprised a lot of people by doing really well in shadow transport. I’ve got a ton of respect for the man, and he’d be a really good Premier if he had the chance.

    His problem is that, essentially, he’s still just an old businessman from Colac. I think he’d be a much more effective opposition leader than Baillieu – since at least he comes across as being competent and not wishywashy, and the Libs plainly don’t have anyone else – but he’d be at least as likely to be another Alan Brown than another, say, Terry Mills.

  9. Bird of paradox: I think South Barwon’s safe this time around. Crutchfield had pissed a hell of a lot of people off in 2006, had had a string of complete Labor stuff-ups in the area, was up against a popular and well-funded Liberal candidate, and still didn’t have much trouble getting re-elected. Brumby doesn’t seem to be on the nose down that way, and as the Corangamite preselection showed, the Libs don’t have anyone better than their 2006 candidate sitting on the bench. It ain’t budging.

  10. Psephos! correct, i recall on Black Saturday where was the Age Newspaper website, i checked it several times that day and it provided no news updates about fires burning apart from the story of the Gippsland fire that broke its contrainment lines at 3am the night before.

    He clearly has no idea how Government is set up, when a fire is burning it is managed by the area commander that it started in now that may sound like public sector red tape but most fires do not move 50kms in six hours.

  11. Terry Mulder has a higher profile than Ted Baillieu, I don’t think being an old businessman from Colac is a problem for Victoria has had several good premiers who happen to come from rural communities

  12. I made this post in the Tassie discussion, Re preferences and ALP attitudes to the Greens,

    Its probably more relevent here.

    This is interesting stuff, (alp attitudes to the greens) Let me make some points.
    History repeats, Menzies courted the DLP, he took them out for meals, he took them to the pictures, he took them to the local dance. He took them home and he slept with them,. He never abused the relationship, and whilst they never married. they both respected each other in the morning. Compare this to the ALP. Boys they are. They are in the local pub, they meet a young attractive thing, she is a bit Green but growing quickly. The ALP (for example read State Sec in Vic Steve Newmann) instead of building a long term relationship, get pissed take the young thing home, have there way and then go straight back down the pub, brag to their mates about having had thier way etc. The Vic State Sec even goes public and Brags about how his strategy of attacking the Greens won some short term gain, not to mention the stupidity of the Feilding Affair. Anyway back to our young couple, the Greens give thier 10% right into the ALP TPP. they are confused, why does he treat me this way etc. Next week/election the ALP is still feeling pretty good about himself and offers to buy the young thing a drink, now she might be a bit young but shes not stupid. She takes the drink and throws it in his face. The moral of the story here is that the ALP are runing to the end of their relationship with the Greens. Rumours coming out of the Greens are things like ‘open tickets’ etc. In states such as Victoria they have nothing to lose. The ALP have never given them one thing.
    The fact that there is talk of ALP LIB coalitions (In tassie) highlight the great threat to the old parties and that is this, the Greens are the opposition on many issues, it takes a swift move, one coalition of the olds and its on. All those who are always against the government suddenly vote green. The G vote goes to 25% overnight and the olds never recover. Wishful thinking?? Its about time the ALP boys woke up to the fact that their dealings with the greens has been short sighted and detrimental to their own interests in the long run. Not just detrimental to their interests but are working in favour of the Libs. If they were so brilliant at strategy why haven’t they worked out why the Libs are giving preferences to the Greens in the inner city seats,(read melbourne, richmond, brunswick etc) the Libs lose nothing and they make it much easier fo rthe Greens to argue ‘open tickets’ and anti ALP preference strategy. If the Greens go open tickets, they can argue, “We are the opposition, vote Green and then make up your own mind as to where you put your second vote.” Classic Democrats line and hard to argue against. Also helps get Libs to vote Green and then preference back to the libs, again in the greens favour as the more of their primaries that go to the libs the better for them on many fronts.
    Just a few thoughts !

  13. Oh and I had to LOL a couple of days ago when said state secretary (Read 25)decided to sue David Davies (a senoir Liberal), now far be it from me to say that suing someone could influence the way preferences went in inner Melbourne but I imaginge the kids down at Greens head office were far from displeased with that one.,

  14. [Victoria has had several good premiers who happen to come from rural communities]’

    I dare say Victoria (or any state) would have more trouble electing a rural Liberal today than in the past. Just one reason is the continued flow of people moving closer to their capital cities.

  15. Although doubtful the Libs MAY improve their position next election and give them very little chance of winning it. I wonder if they have embarked on any policy development at all.
    I heard a local political reporter being interviewed on AW this morning re Big Ted and he claimed that Ted’s news conferences were a shambles. They were long and he would often lose track of what he was saying.

  16. [Although doubtful the Libs MAY improve their position next election and give them very little chance of winning it.]
    Should read “Although doubtful the Libs MAY improve their position next election. I give them very little chance of winning it.

  17. The only seat Labor give themselves a chance in is Morwell, which on 2007 federal figures would be Labor possibly. South Barwon: lots & lots of new residents, more in the relatively Liberal parts but they will be happy homebuyers. The end of the bypass is messy, I live 300m from it, but progress on the new part is visible.

  18. I doubt Labor has much of a show in Morwell. It’s a coal town and not likely to be very impressed by the CPRS, which can’t be helped. Also the ALP in the Valley is run by far-left nongs with a long history of bad candidates.

  19. Note that this poll represents a swing of 1.6% TOWARDS Labor, so Labor woud pick up Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully and Hastings. I don’t think that’s very likely, but Labos is certainly not looking at serious losses. The Liberal-Green alliance (which doesn’t exist of course) would have to win 12 seats to put Labor out. There’s no sign of that happening at present. So get that up you Paul Austin you stupid prat.

  20. The next Victorian election will be close, Labor may only just get back in. Polls mean nothing.
    And Paul Austin, alot of what he says has some merit, but not everything.
    Brumby does not have the same aura as Bracks, and personally i think the Victorian Labor Party should be booted out for its failings in transport, water and seemingly corrupt figures on hospital waiting lists and crime statistics. Honesty in Government is needed. But unfortunately both sides of the political fence will not provide it.
    Oh almost forgot about political fund raising and the way they treated Les Twentyman- pathetic.

  21. The Greens have to do as they are told Bob. Time they said to Labor at the next election, that we will have a split ticket in every seat. They are being used, they should realise that they gave a number of seats in the eastern suburbs to Labor at the last State Election and what did they get in return, nothing.
    The Greens should do the same federally until Labor wakes up on Climate Change.

  22. Does anyone have a breakdown on these figures. Especially for the minor parties?
    The Green vote is down 2%, but it seems this is still the same as last election.
    Is this right?
    Has anyone got the figures for last state election?

  23. Marky Marky!

    Lynne Kosky inherited a Public Transport System that has over the past 100 years being run inoto the ground, the system has long been negliected and the reailty is the system needs major investment and the Government has moved to start several large projects.

    The Department of Transport has made several positive steps towards improving the system but it will take time and some hard truths need to be faced and overtime things can be improved.

  24. Two other points the Desailnation plant is the best think the Government has done in the past ten years and regarding the Greens they choose to preference the ALP, no one makes them do that but they choose to.

  25. MB,

    More the Greens supporters preference Labor. The Greens group think hierarchy at central control would love to flex their muscles. However, the followship treats them with the contempt they deserve.

  26. Psephos, Gary Bruce, or anyone else,
    How do you rate Kirstie Marshall’s chance of being re-elected in Forest Hill. She currently sits on a margin of 1.74%.

  27. There is clear evidence from the last election that when the Greens do split/open tickets that they actually pick up more conservative votes. Now this is only slight, about .3-.4 of one percent. OK I hear you shouting how do you know, well I don’t, it could have been Green voters who get confused and then give thier preferences randomly but I think that the evidence is there that where the Greens do split or open tickets, there are 3-4 liberal voter per 1000 who respect that and vote Green and then put the libs second.
    The tough uncorruptable ALP hard men of course state that a split ticket makes no difference. So either way, 1) it is Lib votes that cause the stat diff or 2) there is no stat diff, so why do the ALP go ‘Nuts” about it. I don’t get the ‘its just publicity’; Its real. every election those nasty green votes just keep getting bigger. I did like the end of the Tassis discussion and the points made about the attitude of the establishment towards the ALP in theose early years 1890 etc.
    If someone wants to do the analysis there were a number of seats in the last state election where the greens did a split ticket, just comare the increased primary.
    My rough look lead to my previous comments but I’ve often been wrong about these things.

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