The latest ACNielsen survey of 1400 voters has Labor’s lead at 56-44, following an aberrant 58-42 result the previous month. Labor leads on the primary vote 46 per cent to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down a point to 31 per cent and his disapproval is steady at 60 per cent, which Tony Wright of The Age notes has him the same territory as Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean in the terminal phase of their leaderships. Peter Costello remains favoured as Liberal leader by 35 per cent, against 19 per cent for Joe Hockey, 17 per cent for Turnbull, 10 per cent for Tony Abbott and 3 per cent for Andrew Robb. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up a point to 68 per cent, against a disapproval rating of 24 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 66-25 to 67-24. Fifty-nine per cent want the government’s emissions trading scheme bill passed as soon as possible, and 58 per cent approve of Rudd’s handling of the relationship with China.
Essential Research should be through any moment now (4.30pm EST), but I won’t be able to help you with that until this evening: Possum‘s often quite quick on that front though (and The Finnigans has a small amount of detail in comments). UPDATE: Here it is. Labor’s lead is down from 60-40 to 58-42. Also featured: the performance of Australian law enforcement in preventing terrorism (most excellent), whether such efforts have been unduly concentrated on the Muslim community (no), who should lead the Liberal Party (Joe Hockey), a really interesting one comparing Kevin Rudd’s performance across various issues with John Howard’s (slight lead to the latter on economy and defence/security, thumping ones to the former on everything else), and whether Malcolm Turnbull is fair dinkum on climate change (no).
Other matters:
• Mumble man Peter Brent has a paper in the latest Australian Journal of Political Science criticising the anachronism of the Divisional Returning Officer, part of what government consultants described as far back as 1974 as the Electoral Commission’s “flat” organisational structure: one national office at the top, six state ones in the middle, and no fewer than 150 divisional ones at the bottom. Occupants of the latter posts have too much to do during election periods, too little to do outside of them, and few paths to promotion, with resulting problems for staffing and morale. “Regionalisation” into offices covering four or five divisions has been advocated by the Electoral Commission itself, but has been resisted in part because MPs enjoy the convenience of a local electorate office, and also because they form troublingly close relationships with their local DROs.
• Two doses of cold water for Alannah MacTiernan’s tilt in Canning. The ABC’s Rebecca Carmody strikes back over past acts of condescension in the Sunday Times, noting she has a big obstacle to overcome in winning over the electorate’s semi-rural areas beyond her Armadale base. Tony Barrass of The Australian concurs, describing her as “a polarising figure, perhaps the most admired-disliked state political figure in the past decade”, and chiding the local media for “talking as though she’s home and hosed”.
• Glenn Milne beats the drum for a Kerryn Phelps candidacy against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth. For what it’s worth though, Labor’s local federal electoral council is making noises about the need for a local rank-and-file vote.
Molotov.
I don’t mean to be trite. But at 21 most people are ideologues, 30 years later after kids, work, mortgages, going to more funerals than weddings etc. tends to make people more “conservative”.
People tend to change views as life dishes out more stuff.
[For Gittins to be proved wrong, Rudd would have to call a double dissolution election. I don’t see it happening.]
Rudd doesn’t need to, the Liberals will roll over, play dead, and vote for the CPRS in November.
GP
Where do I say I am vehinently in favour of big government? Common ownership does not equal big government. Take a hippy commune for example, no big government involvment in that but it does have communal ownership.
GP @ 94, why do you think that? I happen to think Rudd is cautious, considered, however, this doesn’t necessarily equate with a lack of courage. And why would calling a double dissolution election equate to bravery, given the current state of the polls? I’d have thought it would be your mob, in seats with difficult to defend margins, who’d be hoping Rudd didn’t call a DD.
[Where do I say I am vehinently in favour of big government?]
Oh this is funny considering that G.P.’s hero Tony Abbott thinks the government shouldn’t have any means tests on family benefits and government hand outs to the private health insurance industry.
Shows On,
It’s always fascinating to hear the proponents of small government hoist on their underpants.
I read recently where the long term average of people receiving Federal payments is around 12%. But, under Howard the average was around 14% +
Howard was the biggest socialist ever on the real data. As you say, Abbott proposes more of the same.
Oh my, THM, Psephos ain’t a psychologist, you realise? As ruawake says, life’s experiences change us. You try stuff, find it doesn’t work, and if you’re smart, you learn. You find some stuff works sometimes in some conditions, and not in others, when it comes to human beings at aggregate levels. Tell me you’re not doing sociology.
Ruawake
Yeah, I know. I’m not looking forward to all that stuff. Still there are some ideologues from cradel to grave. So I just wonder if I’ll be one of them.
Shows On @105, que?
Another poll = more DaJaVu!!
First i have indirectly had to deal with Alannah MacTiernan and found her to be a friendly person and i think she would make a good federal MP but i am not sure that the ALP can pick up Canning on the current boundaries even though i believe the ALP actually received a swing to them in two of the correspondence state seats.
I see the Black Saturday bushfires royal commission interim report has been handed down and there are a few points would like to make.
1 On Black Saturday i stayed at home for it was too hot to do anything so i spent a fair bit of time in front of the computer and i recall the CFA website failed, i recall seeing at about 12 oçlock a fire burning at Kilmore East, i took a look at the VicRoads country map and thought gee if that jumps the Hume that could be dangerous.
When i rechecked the CFA website a few hours later the Kilmore fire was still buring at Kilmore, there was no indication that it had jumped the Hume and no indication that areas to the south should be worried.
For most of the day i was listening to Triple M and checked every so often with the major newspaper websites, they were silent about any fire burning at Kilmore.
At about six o’clock i checked the CFA website and it had something to the effect of
Kinglake
Kinglake
Kinglake
Etc at this time i turned off Triple M and turned over to the ABC to the news from a reporter that he was hiding in the Kinglake CFA fire station and stating that the whole town was gone.
Molotov
[I’m not looking forward to all that stuff.]
You should be, it is called living. “Life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans.” 🙂
opps i lefted a bit off my last post.
My point is in 150 years Kinglake has on several occasions been impacted by major bushfires and the media were very slow in reporting what was happening so it is all very good for the Age and the Herald Sun to complain about warnings but on Black Saturday they were silent.
Snapper (Williams Python Brother)
Sociology is my minor.
Kay Sara sara is the feed back I’m getting.
The psycology of political perspectives is interesting though, you’ve got to admit.
He is indeed the Brilliant Comrade from the beautiful island of Jeju. That is where i am heading.
[Another Blow To White American Lunatics – The rich “Country Club” Republicans, radio talk show hosts and screaming town hall lunatics just got another reason to hate Barack Obama. A Korean, Y.E. Yang, just beat Tiger Woods to win the 2009 PGA Championship. The PGA is the Pro Golfers Association of America. They represent people who take golf seriously. Having just gotten used to the fact that the best player in the world is an African American, (actually a Cablasian) now the winner of one of the four “Majors” tournaments is Korean. In fact he can’t even speak English, which no doubt will drive the Lou Dobbs division of the wing nut association crazy.]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stu-kreisman/another-blow-to-white-ame_b_260700.html
John Lennon, right?
THM, you don’t want to be an idealogue. Really. Look up the meaning in your nearest dictionary. You certainly don’t want to be one to your grave.
BTW, it’s O.K. to modify your position when you gain further information and think about it, in fact, it’s a highly desirable thing called ‘a capacity to adapt’.
Think about it, we’re going to need it to cope with climate change with creativity and care for our fellow humans.
[30 years later after kids, work, mortgages, going to more funerals than weddings etc. tends to make people more “conservative”.]
Not me. I have become more radicalised as the years go by. THM, stay true. Remain an idealogue. The manifesto you outlined gives me hope. Our young people are our future 🙂
[My point is in 150 years Kinglake has on several occasions been impacted by major bushfires and the media were very slow in reporting what was happening so it is all very good for the Age and the Herald Sun to complain about warnings but on Black Saturday they were silent.]
My solution would be for the ACMA to issue FM Narrowcast Licences to all the State Fire Authorities so that when the merde hits the cooling device they can get their own staff to broadcast warnings, road closures etc directly from the Incident Control Centre and/or get the other media centres to broadcast there ie set up small studios with direct access to the information without relying on media releases and incident controllers having to ring in every 15 minutes.
[John Lennon, right?]
Yep. 🙂
#115, yes, you just keep on throwing those molotov GP’s way. 👿
Labor’s primary vote is indicated in the polls at around 46%, which – if it were uniformly replicated in all states at a DD – would be just about enough to give Labor 50% of the Senate, or 38 seats. The LNP primary vote is indicted at 38%, which on the same basis would be about enough for 5 Senators from each state and one from each territory, for a total of 32. The balance of the Senate would likely be Greens, with 6. If X were to be re-elected (quit likely it seems), it would presumably be at the expense of a Liberal in SA. If, say, X were to accept election as President of the Senate, Labor would have the numbers in the Senate its own right. This is possible and maybe is not even unlikely, especially as in a couple of States Labor’s vote after preferences is likely to exceed 54%, being enough to elect 7 Senators in those States. Now I’d like to see that!
Frank there was a time when people could buy radio scanners sadly the police took the view that they aided crinimals therefore changed the way their radios worked.
The idea of a special radio station may an idea but on a day like Black Saturday when the CFA website did not keep up to date with what was happening and the main media outlets were slow or non-existance
I despair of the current state of media in 2009!
Channel 9 in Sydney leads its 6PM News Bulletin with a story about Kyle/Jackie O, two supposed radio personalities.
Oh brother!
I should also explain that when you are listening to a CFA radio channel or a police channel things can become confusing for you have several things happening at once
I’m aware of the negative connultations of the term. I was saying it in a slightly self mocking manner. Yes I hope my beliefs do change, it would be unhealthy for them not to and hopefully I can take on some of that Buddhist not letting your beliefs control you stuff. Even so, I don’t want to find myself talking like Adam does in regards to the Holy Land, etc.
Most people move to the right as they grow older and wiser, or perhaps older and more cynical, take your pick. This week is the 40th anniversary of Woodstock. I’m sure that if we tracked down everyone who was there, we would find that their political views today are pretty much standard for Americans of their generation, maybe a bit more liberal, but not very radical.
There are exceptions – Gladstone moved to the left all his life, starting out as a high Tory and finishing as a radical liberal.
[Howard was the biggest socialist ever on the real data. As you say, Abbott proposes more of the same.]
Yes, Abbottism seems to mean more Howardism.
George Megalogenis was one of the first commentators to point out that Howard’s desire to give people more choice actually meant increasing government hand outs.
briefly,
Your analysis assumes a uniform vote across the nation. Labor always struggles in WA and Queensland. The latest Neilsen shows this quite clearly.
My view is incremental. Turnbull tried to take it all on one throw of the dice and came a cropper. A DD allows the opportunity for “unrepresentative swill” in the Senate.
Leonard Cohen said it best. “First we take Manhatten, then Berlin”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DinvTZ85OtI
[Frank there was a time when people could buy radio scanners sadly the police took the view that they aided crinimals therefore changed the way their radios worked.]
I know, I still own one, while Police have gone the digital encrypted path, the Firies are still on Analogue in most states, with the exceptioon of Metropolitain Melbourne who are digital AND encrypted, though there are scanners which can recieve unencrypted digital.
[The idea of a special radio station may an idea but on a day like Black Saturday when the CFA website did not keep up to date with what was happening and the main media outlets were slow or non-existance]
That was because it was on a Saturday, when most radio stations are using Automationm with the exception of the ABC and 3AW, it’s even worse in the country with the commercial stations being networked from one location and are on relay to several towns. Community Radio should be the ones who should take up the challenge, and most did, but even then some are so short staffed they sometimes rely on automation.
THM, hey I hang around here quite a bit, even if I’m not always saying stuff, so of course I’m interested in others political perspective. I try to restrain myself from publicly commenting on others psychology, though have occasionally made some suggestions/observations.
Pegasus, you do know what a idealogue is, don’t you?
[I should also explain that when you are listening to a CFA radio channel or a police channel things can become confusing for you have several things happening at once]
Oh ain’t that the truth and sometimes even they don’t know what’s happening.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idealogue
[An ideology is a set of aims and ideas, especially in politics. An ideology can be thought of as a comprehensive vision, as a way of looking at things (compare Weltanschauung), as in common sense (see Ideology in everyday society below) and several philosophical tendencies (see Political ideologies), or a set of ideas proposed by the dominant class of a society to all members of this society. The main purpose behind an ideology is to offer change in society, and adherence to a set of ideals where conformity already exists, through a normative thought process. Ideologies are systems of abstract thought (as opposed to mere ideation) applied to public matters and thus make this concept central to politics. Implicitly every political tendency entails an ideology whether or not it is propounded as an explicit system of thought.]
[Most people move to the right as they grow older and wiser, or perhaps older and more cynical, take your pick. ]
I think this is right, and to be blunt I think as people get closer to death their feelings change which effects their political outlook.
But on the other hand, what was radical 100 years ago is just normal now. So people’s views may shift over their life, but what also shifts is the society they are in.
I am always astonished when I think over the last 100 years there has been a massive expansion in equality of gender, race and sexuality. Ideas that were radical then are just accepted norms now. On so many issues the left perspective of justice and fairness has slowly but surely become accepted, and the conservative policy of denying rights to those who are different has become outdated or even illegal.
I cant speak for Pegasus but I was sort of turning ‘ideologue’ on it’s head. Like Watermelon originally being a term of abuse but which I for one now wear with pride. Likewise with the ‘N’ word. Yes it means dogmatic but with a bit of spin it can become ‘principled’ – emphasizing what’s ethically right instead of what’s easy.
“Greensborough Growler
Posted Monday, August 17, 2009 at 7:54 pm | /// briefly, ….Your analysis assumes a uniform vote across the nation. Labor always struggles in WA and Queensland. The latest Neilsen shows this quite clearly……”
Yeah, I know Labor won’t get a uniform vote around the country, but even in WA and QLD, the Labor Primary vote will be enough to get 6 each with preferences. To get 6 in WA the Liberals would need to get 46.2% of the vote. They will not get there on primaries and will be lucky to pick up preferences from anyone…..so they will probably just fall short of 6. Liberals = 5; Greens = 1; Labor = 5 + 1 with preferences. Something similar can easily happen in QLD (or so I like to tell myself…)
Possum said that the moving to the Right stops in your 30’s and from then on you are pretty consistent.
So the G’s and the F’s and the X’s of the world should be careful what they wish for: a DD might see them relegated to obscurity…..
7 Left, 5 Right in WA seems a bit optimistic. There could be minor parties elected at a DD also.
[Possum said that the moving to the Right stops in your 30’s and from then on you are pretty consistent.]
Some people start to the Right and move progressively to the Left. Some people start at the Centre and progressively move to the Right. Some people start at the Centre and progressively move to the Left. Some people just never stop changing.
[Some people start to the Right and move progressively to the Left. Some people start at the Centre and progressively move to the Right. Some people start at the Centre and progressively move to the Left. Some people just never stop changing.]
just as long as they keep left whilst driving,is all I wish for.
😉
Some say that the COALition getting a senate majority is what lead to their downfall because it resulted in Workchoices so maybe the ALP should be careful what they wish for too. I think an ALP majority in the senate after a DD Is rather unlikely. Antony Green reckons there would be loads of ‘other’. I wonder if the ALP’s ‘hollowmen’ are as psephologically knowledgeable as Antony?
I don’t think Labor will win a senate majority. The most likely scenario is the Greens holding the balance of power in their own right whether the next election is a D.D. or not.
Pegasus, it’s a fine thing to have ideals; it’s an even finer thing to find ways of improving people’s lives by the application of tried and tested means of doing so.
My understanding of idealogue, and maybe I’m just an old f**t, is that they are rigid adherents to a particular belief system. I don’t have a ready reference for which I can provide a link. Got interrupted by the grand son on the phone.
Anyway, just think it’s important to be able to change how one thinks about things with new evidence, not to chuck out one’s ideals, but to be able to move flexibly.
[just as long as they keep left whilst driving,is all I wish for.]
LOL. PB always provides comic relief 🙂
[Some people start to the Right and move progressively to the Left. Some people start at the Centre and progressively move to the Right. Some people start at the Centre and progressively move to the Left. Some people just never stop changing.]
i start from the bottom and move to the top, and vice versa.
Finns,
Bloody dolphins!
I don’t think I’ve got any more or less radical as I’ve got older. But I definitely think the community has shifted.
When I was 18, I wasn’t allowed to wear trousers to work. The company I worked for (a major bank) claimed to have equal pay, but didn’t have equal work. Jobs were allocated on the basis of gender. When I sat the Victorian Public Service entrance exam, it was the first time women had been allowed to sit.
I couldn’t tell my co-workers that I went to Sunbury Festival, or that I lived with my boyfriend (it was called ‘living in sin’ and even my family was scandalised). I couldn’t vote.
I think I still sit in the same place on the community spectrum as I did back then – somewhat to the left. But what was radial then is commonplace now. Maybe it’s all relative.
THM & Pegasus, if not forever young, at least forever radical.
[I*de”a*logue\, n. [Idea + -logue, as in theologue: cf. F. id[‘e]ologue.] One given to fanciful ideas or theories; a theorist; a spectator. [R.] –Mrs. Browning.]
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/idealogue
[My understanding of idealogue, and maybe I’m just an old f**t, is that they are rigid adherents to a particular belief system.]
Dogmatic, rigid adherents – not what I understood an idealogue to be, but then I am no intellectual.
[i start from the bottom and move to the top, and vice versa.]
ROTFL It’s so good to have a really good laugh!!