Poll positioning

Federal preselection season is in full swing, at least in some parts of the country. Three big Victorian Liberal contests are coming to the boil following the departure of sitting members in safe seats, while one Labor-held seat has produced a substantial challenge against a sitting member. The action in New South Wales and Queensland is in stasis pending redistributions which will be finalised early next year, although some preliminary jockeying has been under way. Things seem fairly quiet in South Australia and Western Australia, the latter situation prompting a spray at the Liberals from Peter van Onselen in The Australian, who complains about the apparent security of tenure for the state party’s bloated retinue of ageing backbenchers (only the relatively youthful Dennis Jensen in Tangney faces a challenge). Beyond that, there’s one item of news to report from Tasmania.

• The Age reports Victorian Liberal deputy director Daniel Tehan has resigned his position to contest preselection for Wannon, to be vacated at the next election by David Hawker. Tehan is the son of the late Marie Tehan, who was among other things Health Minister in the Kennett government. His confirmed opponents will include Louise Staley, former state party vice-president and Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert; Rod Nockles, Howard government adviser and runner-up in the recent preselection for the less desirable prospect of Corangamite; Elizabeth Matuschka, a University of Ballarat administrator who ran unsuccessfully in Ballarat at the 2004 federal election and for Ballarat City Council last November; Matt Makin, a Corangamite councillor; Katrina Rainsford, a Southern Grampians councillor; and Hugh Koch, whom the Warrnambool Standard tells us is a Southern Grampians tourism manager. David McKenzie of the Weekly Times reports that former Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, recently unsuccessful in bids for Corangamite and a position on the board of the National Farmers Federation, has decided against nominating and will instead seek a state upper house berth in Western Victoria. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews has also named as possibilities “complicated Costello loyalist” Georgie Crozier and former police sergeant and anti-corruption crusader Simon Illingworth. UPDATE: The Age says the closure of nominations has produced 10 candidates, which includes “company director Stephen Mitchell”.

• Nicholas McGowan, former adviser to state Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu, has put his hand up to succeed the outgoing Chris Pearce as the Liberal candidate for Aston. Also in the field are two Knox City councillors, Sue McMillan and Darren Pearce (respectively representing Dobson and Taylor wards). McMillan earlier stood for preselection in both Ferntree Gully and Monbulk ahead of the 2006 state election. The Knox Leader reports that former mayor Emanuele Cicciello “has been tipped to run but is remaining tight-lipped”. On July 1, the Herald Sun reported that names “yet to be confirmed” included “former Howard government adviser Alan Tudge and lawyer John Pesutto, who performed well in the recent Kooyong preselection battle”, but VexNews reports the latter assertion is “not correct”.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that the preselection contest for Higgins is “being fought out between Kelly O’Dwyer, a former senior adviser to Mr Costello, and Institute of Public Affairs director Tim Wilson”, who respectively have the backing of the Kroger and Baillieu factions. Definitely out of the running are Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam, Crosby Textor consultant Jason Aldworth and former state party director Julian Sheezel, which Andrew Landeryou at VexNews credits to gentle persuasion from Michael Kroger in support of O’Dwyer. No word lately on Tom Elliott, hedge fund manager and son of John.

• With Mal Brough frozen out of the running in Higgins and Aston, Andrew Landeryou at VexNews relates he is “apparently looking or waiting to be drafted”, which might yet occur when Fran Bailey vacates McEwen at the election after next (assuming she can hang on to her 27-vote margin).

• This weekend sees the local ALP preselection ballot take place for the safe Labor Melbourne seat of Calwell. Incumbent Maria Vamvakinou, a stalwart of Kim Carr’s sub-faction of the Left, faces a challenge from Andy Richards, Geelong councillor and official with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (metalworkers’ division). The ballot accounts for half the overall vote, the other half being determined by the party’s Public Office Selection Committee. According to Rick Wallace of The Australian, Richards could secure support from the Right faction National Union of Workers and Health Services Union – collectively known as the “Ambition Faction” – which forged alliances with the AMWU after being excluded from a “stability pact” between the Kim Carr Left and Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy of the Right. Should this transpire, moves to heal the rift between the rival Right groupings could miscarry. Wallace reports that Richards also has support from “local Turks aligned with ALP identity and local councillor Burhan Yigit”. If support for Richards holds firm, Wallace says the decisive factors will be “local Kurds and a local Lebanese numbers man, Mohamad Abbouche”. As Andrew Landeryou of VexNews tells it, the former might be inclined to back Richards because they are angry that Kim Carr has failed to support Moreland councillor Enver Erdogan in the state preselection for Brunswick. Landeryou says the Ambition Faction is hopeful of securing as much as 60 per cent of the vote for Richards, but the Carr camp is “confident they’ll be able to snaffle at least 20 per cent of the vote back from pesky ethnic warlords who are pledged to support Richards”. UPDATE: See below.

• Nick Butterly of The West Australian says that while Dennis Jensen’s chances of surviving Saturday’s Liberal preselection ballot in Tangney have been boosted by the support of Malcolm Turnbull and “Perth business heavyweights”, Liberal insiders say he “still faces defeat in this Saturday’s ballot because of local concerns about his fundraising efforts and performance in Federal Parliament”. It is not stated which of his two opponents is considered the more formidable: Alcoa government relations manager Libby Lyons, or Toyota Finance executive Glenn Piggott. UPDATE: See below.

• The Launceston Examiner reports that the frontrunner for Liberal preselection in Bass, Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, has withdrawn citing family and work issues. The nomination is now likely to go to Steve Titmus, a former television newsreader.

• The Australian’s Strewth column is advised by a Liberal source that there is “absolutely no truth” to rumours Melanie Howard might contest preselection for Bennelong. Earlier reports suggested approaches to former state MPs Kerry Chikarovski and Andrew Tink had been rebuffed. Also mentioned a while back was former rugby union international Brett Papworth.

UPDATE (18/7/09): Via Frank Calabrese, we learn that ABC TV news in Perth reports that Glenn Piggott has defeated Dennis Jensen in the Tangney preselection vote. Remembering of course that Jensen also lost before the last election, only to have the result overturned on the intervention of John Howard. Meanwhile, Andrew Landeryou reports that Andy Richards has pulled out of the Calwell preselection, so there should be no problems now for Maria Vamvakinou – notwithstanding earlier reports that one Manfried Kriechbaum had also nominated as part of a campaign of mischief-making by state Keilor MP George Seitz.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,045 comments on “Poll positioning”

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  3. scorpio

    It must be a strange sort of sensation for the Liberals when they discover they are biting themselves on the arse… How painful it must be. They made these sorts of rules for 10 years. No whiteboards needed; all according to the rules.

    1. There are more Labor seats than Coalition seats.
    2. The Labor seats are generally more likely to contain areas that need funding assistance, unless the Government happens to be targeting a program at, for example, biofuel mates.

  4. Finns and Psephos,

    The Poms are preparing tracks for a 0-0 result.

    No bounce or deviation.

    Poms make 600. Aussies make 700.

    No result at Lords.

  5. GG that is true there is nothing in it for the bowlers which means draws are the only option…

    Still M.Johnson should lose his contract by the way he’s bowling he’s a joke!

  6. Right on cue. You gotta hand it to Pies. He is rather good at Indonesia and China bashing, not to mention Rudd bashing.

    [PM turns blind eye on thugs bullying Aussies – Piers Akerman

    KEVIN Rudd has now let down Australian citizens in two foreign countries. The Chinese Government has so far snubbed his attempts to get any substantial news about the arrest of Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu.

    Closer to home, the murder of Australian Drew Grant near the huge US-owned Freeport mine in Indonesia’s Papua province remains a mystery.

    The failure of the Rudd Government to act on behalf of Australian citizens abroad is in keeping with its dismal record in almost all other areas of policy. ]

    http://tinyurl.com/kngz2q

  12. Shane Warne so should have been Australian Test Captain! Why is Ponting setting such defensive fields rather than having men around the bat.

    At this stage I am not too worryied but if we get to tea and the score was 0-250 then I might become concerned.

  14. If China is using Hu inappropriately then Australia should of course not capitulate even at the risk of damage to business or relations.

    I think if you lay down at the first issue you make yourself a doormat from then on. China should realise that we wont be giving away our resources or ownership/control of our resources.

    Thing is we have no idea what is going on here with Hu, I guess Rudd and co understand fully what is going on, so it will be instructive to watch him.

  15. [My suspicion is they’ll produce a turner somewhere and exploit Australia’s spin deficiency.]

    GG, they can always bring back the Old Trafford wicket where Jim Laker took 19 Australian wickets for 90.

    Or better still, bring back Jim Laker.

  16. Pom spinners took one wicket in the last test. H took 5 I believe.

    M Johnson is fine – but he must have inadvertently made some fundamental change to something or is having trouble with the English ball or has a mind problem. But he just did very well in S.A – so we know he has what it takes. The guy is trying his best. If he cant get his act together by the end of this test and the next practice match then giving him a rest might be the best thing, if their is a ready quality replacement.

  18. [China should realise that we wont be giving away our resources or ownership/control of our resources.]

    Thomas Paine, i dont know about you, but i dont feel like eating iron ores or aluminum pellets. i dont think they taste very good.

  19. Finns,

    Headingly in 1972 (where Bradman scored 300 in a day) was turned into a spinners paradise for Derek Underwood by some grass afliction that has never been seen before or after.

  20. Finns

    Piers gets my vote as the worst commentator in Oz. Everything he says is mindless partisan drivel and all counter-arguments are met with him putting his hands over his ears and yelling “I’m not listening”.

    He asks for a single example of a Rudd policy that has worked. Someone answers (amongst other things like turfing SerfChoices);

    [The economy is moving out of what could have been a dehabilitating depression through mesures lauded the world over]

    To which Piers replies;

    [Sir RGM provide some evidence that Rudd had anything to do with the state of the Australian economy. ]

    So now Rudd doesn’t affect the economy. Unless he creates debt and then he does.

  21. Yes I know he was a sleazy lying pig but Ponting use to over drink and that didn’t stop him becoming captain, of course it does not matter hopefully the Aussies can break though.

  24. [China should realise that we wont be giving away our resources or ownership/control of our resources.]

    These things are not only for this generation or this decade. So we should be maintaining control of the farm and not be pressured giving it away or, adopt a position of capitulation at the first challenge. That is not to say we act like Turnbull. We should be polite, respectful and so on but at the end of the day we still have to show some firmness.

    now back to the cricket.

  27. TP,

    Predictions are that China’s population will grow from 1.3 Bill to 1.5 bill over the next fifty years. Thats 200 million people (10 times the current Australian population).

    So they have a massive increase in population. At the same time they are bringing their existing population out of debt at the fastest rate ever seen.

    Australia has everything China needs and wants.

  29. [We should send the Australian Cricket Team to China to explain our values and our expectations.]

    We should send the Rugby League Team to China to explain our values and our expectations. This is more appropriate as we can really bash up the chinese. 😛

  30. This is one of the lines from the Pies article:

    ‘Diplomacy demands more than words alone . . . it requires trust and a determination to back words with actions.’

    Well, it is diplomacy that requires words. Anything beyond words and you are into some other sphere of activity. What actions?

    Is Pies thinking about shooting war here? Perhaps he would like Australia to indulge in a little trade war with Indonesia and China? Perhaps we could stop sending coal and iron to China?

  31. It was seriously suggested after World War I that the Germans should be required to teach cricket in their schools, because then they would learn to behave like gentlemen. In retrospect I think this was an opportunity missed.

  32. GG

    Exactly. We have the resources which will always be in demand and not just by China. We should be managing them carefully with a long term view, a lot of our future revenue is tied up in them.

    China I imagine will be often pushing limits to see how much they can get away with. I think Rudd’s last statement indicates that China is trying it on a bit here and that it isn’t purely a law breaking issue.

  35. [‘Diplomacy demands more than words alone . . . it requires trust and a determination to back words with actions.’]

    I think he is thinking of Rudd setting fire to himself in protest. I expect Turnbull to demand this soon.

  38. Another thing China has to be careful about is its international image which is it cares about. It doesn’t want to get typecast as a place ‘unsafe’ for businessmen who will be targeted as a negotiation method or in payback. Rudd has touched on a sensitive point there.

  41. Psephos

    Thank goodness that cricket thing did not get off the ground.

    Without any training the won the toss all by themsleves and then clean bowled Czechoslovakia, Poland, Holland, Belgium, France, Denmark, Norway, Greece, whatever passed for Yuogslavia and a few other odds and sods. The British were competent night watchmen and the Russians, after looking a bit rocky, turned into match winners.

  43. Here we go:

    [ July 17, 2009 – 10:07PM – British backpacker Jamie Neale and his father Richard Cass have signed an exclusive publicity deal.

    The 19-year-old whose amazing tale of survival in the NSW Blue Mountains gained worldwide media attention has been signed by 22 Management.

    The Sydney-based firm would not disclose how much Mr Neale stands to make from the arrangement or exactly what the deal will entail.

    However, sources told AAP Mr Neale had rejected a number of other offers in excess of $100,000.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/jamie-neale-signs-exclusive-media-deal-20090716-dn06.html

    Stupid Aussie.

  46. Wow. This comment from Bolters blog shows just how wacko some of these people are. Still, when you think about this a bit it does have an entertaining ring to it!

    [If the Nats broke away from the Coalition and Barnaby Joyce ran for the lower house seat of Dawson…. we might have a show.

    If the Nationals then ran a candidate in every seat, arguing against AGW and ETS on scientific grounds, then there is a very good chance that the conservative forces would finally get traction.

    It won’t be an agrarian revolution, but with Barney as PM at least commonsense will prevail. ]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/turnbull_would_have_to_defy_gravity_and_history/

  47. Though Psephos, John Arlott on the BBC commentary once described NZ opening bowler Bob Cunis as having a family name that was neither one thing nor the other.

  48. Don’t think trying to balance the budget is a particularly good idea right now for the USA. As the youtube clip wanted.

    (I might mention that half my family is Chinese and have worked there.)

  49. [If the Nationals then ran a candidate in every seat, arguing against AGW and ETS on scientific grounds, then there is a very good chance that the conservative forces would finally get traction.

    It won’t be an agrarian revolution, but with Barney as PM at least commonsense will prevail. ]

    Scorpio

    every little suggestion helps
    😉

  50. Boerwar,

    I think the German team received plenty of practice during their unsuccessful 1914-1918 tour of France. Indeed, their excellent number 3 batsman, H. Guderian, received some very valuable instruction during the latter part of that tour at the hands of our very own J. Monash. Perhaps fortunately for his opponents, a dispute with his captain over fielding placements in the 41-42 match in Moscow led to his demotion down the batting order until very late in the tour, by which time the series was already well and truly lost for the Germans. 🙂

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