Newspoll: 53-47

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since the election of the Rudd government, with Labor’s lead at 53-47 – its narrowest since the 52-48 election eve survey, and essentially the same as the actual 52.7-48.3 result. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 41 per cent, the equal worst result since Kevin Rudd became leader (the other occasion being October last year, shortly after Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership) and solidly below the 43.3 per cent election result. The Coalition primary vote is 40 per cent, the first time this figure has had a four in front of it since the election.

A somewhat different story from Essential Research, which for the second week in a row finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43. Also featured: perceptions of the government’s handling of the financial crisis (good), expectations of Australia’s economic performance over the coming year (mixed but somewhat optimistic), reaction to Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation (muted), whether the Greens should support the emissions trading scheme legislation (yes, sort of), whether unions should campaign for more industrial relations reforms (ditto), and whether the government is doing enough to support working people (lineball).

UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Explanations for Labor’s decline evidently can’t be laid at the feet of the Prime Minister, who has gained two points on approval (58 per cent) and dropped two on disapproval (31 per cent). Interestingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings have continued to rebound: his approval is up a handsome four points to 44 per cent while his disapproval is down three to 37 per cent, his best set of figures since early February. Preferred leader is basically unchanged with Rudd on 57 per cent and Turnbull on 25 per cent (up one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,568 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. [I’d guess a conservative will be the guest on INSIDERS]

    I’m betting there has been a fair bit of lobbying to get on tomorrow’s shows.

    Maybe Rudd should bite the bullet and go on – and really go on the front foot.

  4. Thanks Adam, that is actually a very clear explanation from Swan. Lets hope someone prints it tomorrow. I can’t imagine Lewis will….

  10. Flaneur & Boerwar
    Never mind about all of that. All you need to know about the history of grain crops is this:
    Barley is a cereal grain derived from the annual grass Hordeum vulgare.

    Now that WILL help Turnbull, if mixed and fermented in the correct proportions with malt, water, hops and yeast, and then consumed in large quantities, in the company of convivial sympathisers. He may soon have plenty of time for plenty of that.

  12. Further to 3445

    Dutch toilets used to be constructed so that the long drop hit the water of a canal. The results then floated about a bit before being biodegraded. In turn, this made canal bottom scraping a very useful fertilizer for the fields – and helped explain the excellent yields of Dutch farming.

    In the latter sense only, canal bottom scraping was therefore different from Turnbull’s use of a hoax email.

  13. Glen, I don’t think Swan’s as home free as most here are suggesting (wishing?).

    But this is a good point by Adam:

    [Even backbenchers get swamped with faxes, since everyone copies everything to everyone else to cover their arses. It’s very wasteful.]

    Well known truth in politics/public service these days. In the wise words of Malcolm Tucker, “If you don’t even CC them an email they think you’ve started a palace coup!”

  15. [Meet the Press:

    Setting the political agenda for the week ahead. This week’s guest is Federal Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner]

    Is it on tomorrow? My guide says the US open golf will be on 10 all morning…

  16. Latest from “Their ABC”

    [‘Nothing to hide’

    Meanwhile, John Grant, the Brisbane car dealer caught up in the claims, says he is surprised by the whole situation.

    He says he has never asked Mr Rudd or his office for anything.

    “Seriously, there’s nothing to hide in the whole situation whatsoever,” he said.

    “I’m just surprised it’s gone on for so long because the ute I loaned Kevin Rudd has been sitting there, it’s been noted on his pecuniary interests register, known about that.

    “I’ve never spoken to Kevin Rudd or anyone of his staff [regarding] the SPV, or now called OzCar.”

    He says there is nothing untoward about the situation.

    “Never asked him for anything. [It] just seems to be a storm in a teacup,” he said.

    “There’s an inquiry going on, so I’ve got nothing to hide, happy to be involved in it.”

    Mr Grant says says there are a lot of people he has loaned cars to.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/20/2603896.htm?section=justin

  19. Dio normally around about 8:30 which is great cos i can take Meet the Press until 8:30 and get the interview then get Laurie and then get Insiders…

  22. [
    Tom the first and best
    3428

    Nice modern metric measurements there.
    ]
    Assuming that 3429 was the target of this reference:

    Fair cop. Given that the acre wasn’t a standard (it even had to be a certain shape depending on locale), using metric units would assign a far higher accuracy to the numbers than they deserve.

    Mind you, I’d still take a gallon of ale for a farthing if offered. Call me shallow if you wish.

  23. [Ah good point… But isn’t the golf on OneHD?]

    Nah, too big an event to only be on digital. The old folks wouldn’t be able to tune in their analogue sets to it 😉

  25. [According to the online TV gude, Meet the Press isn’t on tomorrow because of the golf.]

    And Ten News would’ve mention who would be on Meet The Press just after Paul Bongiornio’s Report.

  26. [And Ten News would’ve mention who would be on Meet The Press just after Paul Bongiornio’s Report.]

    Paul must be pissed that the golf is on this weekend. Maybe they’ll just do a web interview?

  28. Psephos
    I’m sorry to dump the whole transcript here, but I’m getting very annoyed at Glen simply repeating things over and over which are demonstrably false.

    There may be great sins that you have perpetrated, but this isn’t one of them. Obviously I’m
    referring to the “dumping” assertion; getting annoyed at Glen is non-productive.

  29. [
    Boerwar
    …where human mud scoopers scraped canal bottoms (I know) and then spread the muck across the the pastures.
    ]
    Heh! Didn’t know that. Though my previous references to “manure” wasn’t confined to modern sensibilities. Everyone has finished their evening meal, right?

  30. Any comment so far on Alison Ritchie’ resignation in Tassie?

    Bit of a shame to see someone who seemed like a decent rising star not that long ago flame out like this.

  33. [Somehow Van Onselen managed to publish that article yesterday.

    What’s with News Ltd. timestamps? None of them are accurate.]

    It’s from Perth Now, and it is in WA Time 🙂 we’re still in Saturday Evening here.

  35. [Somehow Van Onselen managed to publish that article yesterday.

    What’s with News Ltd. timestamps? None of them are accurate.]

    It’s from a WA Website and is in local time.

  37. hmm, my post prior to the one posted is stuck in moderation where I basically said the same thing, but it the spaminator didn’t like a couple of words I ommitted.

  38. [OPPOSITION leader Malcolm Turnbull admitted yesterday he had never seen the mysterious email that he used to demand the resignations of the Prime Minister and the Treasurer.]

    Didn’t Turnbull make some very serious allegations against Rudd? Basing it on what someone else said or wrote is not basing it on fact. He had no genuine basis on which to make his allegations.

    Otherwise I could pick up what Bree says here and make allegations against Rudd.

  40. Mentioning News Ltd usually means to me that there is about a 10% chance it might be worth reading and greater than 50% chance it will be Liberal party flag waving. And 90% chance I will need to go somewhere else to get the full facts in context.

  41. [Do I want to know what Van Onsolen has to say, since he is becoming like a Bolt or Ackerman Ackerman of late.]

    He said Swan must resign. What a shock.

  42. Turnbull’s just released a statement.

    http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=3317

    [1. We welcome the AFP inquiry and expect it will have comprehensive access to all relevant computer equipment in the Prime Minister’s Office, the Treasurer’s office and Treasury.

    2. Responding to Mr Rudd’s latest smear, I note that I have never claimed to be in possession of this email and, as it happens, even the Charlton file note (which is both inaccurate and incomplete) does not suggest I did.

    3. The text of the alleged email was not supplied to Mr Lewis by anybody in the Opposition.

    4. The only people who can speak authoritatively about this email are Mr Grech and Mr Charlton.

    5. Mr Grech has said before the Senate Committee he recalls receiving a short email from the PMO about John Grant, but he was prevented from answering further questions on that matter by the intervention of Labor Senators and his senior officer.

    6. Mr Rudd’s attempt to smear the Opposition is typical. If he was interested in letting the Australian people know the truth about this alleged email he would have allowed Mr Grech to give his evidence without obstruction.]

  44. [
    jaundiced view
    Barley… if mixed and fermented in the correct proportions with malt, water, hops and yeast, and then consumed in large quantities…
    ]
    After the virtual-virtual Coopers debacle, I’m going to have to go all stone age on you man!

    Malt is, usually, malted barley. There are some beers that use small quantities of un-malted barley (usually for colour), namely stouts and porters. Other beers partake of some malted wheat (not too much mind), but “malt” generally refers to malted barley.

    I’m going to put the warm lettuce away now, but be warned that it is at hand! 😉

  49. Vortex at 3318

    Apologies for a slow response: my take-away arrived and required immediate attention

    In answer to your questions

    1) what do I do for work? Answer – I am currently out of work
    2)
    · is Mr Grant entitled to apply, Answer of course
    · he should not be treated any differently
    · He should have applied the same way as everyone else:

    Does any of the above assist Swan? – Answer – of course not. The question is over the management of the power of treasurer or his office, not the applicant.

    In case you need a quick refresher on the near-universal perceptions of car-salesmen integrity please see the following link:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/112264/nurses-shine-while-bankers-slump-ethics-ratings.aspx

  50. I expect Turnbull to be obliterated in Parliament next week.

    The Govt can make reference to a pattern of Liberal Party behavior across the country on using faked documents. The Howard govt using a faked document to character assassinate a judge.

    Then it can turn some focus on Turnbull’s history as they did last week. And then it can go to the matter of the latest scam.

    Put it all together it is a very damning picture of the whole Liberal Party and their base tactics.

    The have Tanner, Swan, Rudd, Gillard and so forth answer dixers developing same.

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