Party games

No Morgan poll this week. Here’s some of the other mail:

• The Launceston Examiner reports that Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, veteran of numerous overseas postings and until recently the Australian Defence Force’s director-general of public affairs, has “confirmed that he is interested” in Liberal preselection for the federal seat of Bass. Also said to have his eye on the preselection is Senator Guy Barnett, who will otherwise have to settle for the slighly less appealing prospect of number three on the Liberal ticket.

• Michelle Grattan reports on a “glowing reference” for Kooyong preselection aspirant Josh Frydenberg from John Howard. Another of Frydenberg’s backers is Andrew Peacock. His principal rival, industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto, is supported by Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam, who was himself sniffing the breeze before deciding not to proceed. Former Liberal president and Fraser government minister Tony Staley has given his seal of approval to Peter Jonson, a 62-year-old former Reserve Bank official known to the web at large as Henry Thornton.

• The Townsville Bulletin reports there are rumours that prodigious McDonald’s franchiser George Colbran again hopes to run for Labor in Herbert, where he narrowly failed to unseat Peter Lindsay in 2007. Colbran reportedly says he “won’t commit either way”.

• David Rood of The Age reports that John Brumby has “cleared the way” for Keilor MP George Seitz to be dumped at the next election, amid the fallout from the Ombudsman’s recent report into Brimbank City Council. The party’s administrative committee will decide this evening whether to take preselections for western suburbs seats out of the hands of local branches, in which Seitz and others remain powerful. Also affected will be Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz, whose preselection ahead of last year’s by-election formed the backdrop of much of the shenanigans investigated by the Ombudsman, and Derrimut MP Telmo Languiller. Labor sources quoted in the article wonder why both Languiller and Western Metropolitan MLC Theo Theophanous aren’t equally being targeted along with Seitz, so it evidently should not be taken for granted that either Languiller or Kairouz are endangered.

• Taking his cue from Manmohan Singh’s assumption of the Indian prime ministership from the upper house, Malcolm Mackerras argues for an end to the convention that Australia’s party leaders must sit in the lower house, which he relates to the anachronistic presumption that it is the more democratic chamber.

• Final score from the Fremantle by-election: Carles 10,664, Tagliaferri 9,100. Margin: 3.96 per cent. I expected Labor would rein it in a little on late counting, but no.

• With the whiff of a dying government in the air, talk of electoral reform is very much in vogue in London this season, just as was when the scandal-ridden Major government was breathing its last. Conservative leader David Cameron opposes proportional representation but promises to “look seriously” at fixed terms. Health Secretary Alan Johnson – “still the favourite to lead Labour if Gordon Brown is removed from the top job“ – has suggested the government at last look seriously at the “Alternative Vote Plus” model which has been floating around since the 1998 report of the Jenkins commission, which was set up when Tony Blair came to power. It proposes a slightly watered down version of German/NZ style MMP, combining constituency members with party list members to produce a proportional result. Unlike Germany and NZ however, there would be a cap on the number of party list members which might make results less than fully proportional. The “Alternative Vote” part of the title refers to Australian-style preferential voting for the constituency seats, which the Jenkins commission appeared to be taken with as it had just helped defeat Pauline Hanson. From the Jenkins commission report, a “note of reservation by Lord Alexander”:

My colleagues also think that AV will contribute to a less confrontational style of politics because candidates will be inhibited from attacking rivals too strongly as they wish to gain their second votes. I do not see it as particularly desirable that candidates from different parties, who are different precisely because they do not agree on all issues, should be pulling their punches in order to seek approval from voters who support other parties. In any event, from my observation of Australia, which is the only single large country to use AV, their politicians tend to be, if anything, more blunt and outspoken than our own.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,122 comments on “Party games”

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  1. [Greens Newspoll primary:]

    As compared to the ALP’s Primary Vote which is at levels the Greens will NEVER achieve.

  2. [It’s called singing from the same song sheet and prevents you from becoming an unorganised Rabble]

    So then what exactly was your point about Combet supporting the policy and remembering he used to be the ACTU secretary, if we know he has to support policy?

    Catch up Frank…

  3. [As compared to the ALP’s Primary Vote which is at levels the Greens will NEVER achieve.]

    And there it is. The attacks and lashing out over the continued rise of the vote.

    I don’t want the Greens to achieve Labor’s vote. I just want them to remind Labor that they cant support the right at the expense of the left. A few more Senate seats and a couple of House seats to give Labor a scare and pull them in to line, and i’ll be happy, and maybe even vote Labor 1 if they stop being so socially conservative!

  4. [Because all their advertising has a picture of Bob Brown – even Adele was pictured with him.]

    Yet the federal Greens are polling less than their state counterparts. Another one of your thought bubbles busted. Go figure 😉

  6. [So then what exactly was your point about Combet supporting the policy and remembering he used to be the ACTU secretary, if we know he has to support policy?]

    Perhaps that was the wrong example but upon the passing of the Bill, Sharan Burrow said this:

    [ACTU president Sharan Burrow said it was a major step forward for Australian workers and would give them stronger protection and rights in the economic downturn.

    “After a decade of attacks on working people by the Liberal and National parties the tide has turned,” Ms Burrow said.]

    And as for Bob Brown:

    [But the Greens declared the passage of the bill a “great result” with leader, Senator Bob Brown saying it was what the Australian people had voted for.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/parliament-approves-fair-work-bill-20090320-94aq.html?page=2

  7. [Once Bob Brown leaves take off about 3-4% off your federal tally…no one likes Milne cept the Ferals…]

    So why are the state Greens polling higher than the federal Greens if the only reason people are supporting Green is cause of Bob Brown?

    I don’t like Milne either, but it doesn’t mean i’d stop lodging my protest vote with them. I think Bob Brown should stay on till the election after next, or after that one, and pass the reins on to Sarah Hanson-Young, with Ludlum as deputy. They need the youth to step up.

  8. [I don’t want the Greens to achieve Labor’s vote. I just want them to remind Labor that they cant support the right at the expense of the left. A few more Senate seats and a couple of House seats to give Labor a scare and pull them in to line, and i’ll be happy, and maybe even vote Labor 1 if they stop being so socially conservative!]

    Or it can have the opposite effect and the ALP will be opposition for far longer than 12 years.

    Being socially progressivbe certainly didn’t help, Beazly, Crean and most importantly Latham – Medicare Gold and the Private Schools Hit List sent the McMansion Owners flocking to Howard.

  9. On the one hand, Frank says Labor should have stayed with WorkChoices Lite because it would have given the Libs a whole bunch of ammunition and give them the chance of re-introducing WorkChoices. Then he says it’s not WorkChoices Lite at all and gives selective quotes as if WorkChoices Lite wasn’t anywhere near WorkChoices.

    Make up your mind. Or is power the only thing you think about these days, and stuff logic, and what you believe in?

  10. [Being socially progressivbe certainly didn’t help, Beazly, Crean and most importantly Latham – Medicare Gold and the Private Schools Hit List sent the McMansion Owners flocking to Howard.]

    They’re economic reforms…? It’s like debating a preschooler…

  11. [Make up your mind. Or is power the only thing you think about these days, and stuff logic, and what you believe in?]

    After 12 years of Howard, I will support Labor in ANYTHING which will ensure we will not be getting a Liberal Government anytime soon.

  12. Labor’s current IR legislation wasn’t exactly what it started out with, but in the context of the election campaign it had to make compromises to calm some horses and to ensure they got over the line, just as Howard attempted with WorkChoices at the 11th hour.

    Having gone to the election with an amended IR package they have no option but to put that one in. And in the context of the GFC it would be political suicide to play with it now. Maybe mid 2nd term might bring some fine tuning, if the win the next election. But Labor did restore the most critical part of IR law in Australia making unions a part of the process again which WC was designed to finally exclude.

  15. [The first review of the Turnbull ads by Malcolm Farr. Doesn’t seem overly impressed.]

    Glen thought they were great comedy
    🙂

  16. [They’re economic reforms…? It’s like debating a preschooler…]

    I pointed out two SOCIALLY PROGRESSIVE policies which appeal to the ALP Left.

    And we all saw the result.

    Remember this ?

    [Leading Melbourne private schools – including Melbourne Grammar, Brighton Grammar and Methodist Ladies College – signalled yesterday they may have to push up fees after being named on Labor’s “hit list”.

    Melbourne Grammar headmaster Paul Sheahan said the Labor policy would “without question” lead to higher fees – and the school becoming more exclusive. “I just cannot believe that their solution to the problem is simply to take it from schools where they erroneously believe that all parents are wealthy,” Mr Sheahan said.

    The Association of Independent Schools of Victoria’s chief executive Michelle Green said the proposed cuts were “based on some 19th century view of class warfare”.

    Federal Education Minister Brendan Nelson said that by forcing some parents to move their children from private to public schools, Labor’s policy would cost taxpayers money. “This is a policy of punishment and persecution that will actually discourage parents from making sacrifices for their children,” Dr Nelson said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/09/14/1094927584033.html

    That’s what happens when you try and be socially progressive.

  17. [Having gone to the election with an amended IR package they have no option but to put that one in. And in the context of the GFC it would be political suicide to play with it now. Maybe mid 2nd term might bring some fine tuning, if the win the next election. But Labor did restore the most critical part of IR law in Australia making unions a part of the process again which WC was designed to finally exclude.]

    Precicely my point. But of course those who oppose such logic refer to it as “Selling Out”

  18. [Once Bob Brown leaves take off about 3-4% off your federal tally…no one likes Milne cept the Ferals…]

    The Greens vote will halve when Brown leaves?

    Why did 10% of people vote for The Greens in Vic, 12% in WA etc…

  20. [Why did 10% of people vote for The Greens in Vic, 12% in WA etc…]

    Because of the Branding of the Party with Brown as FEDERAL Leader – remove all referewnces to Brown from States Greens Advertising etc and those figures won’t be as high.

  21. The funding for wealthy private schools does not get put into lowering fees but building more lavish facilities to compete with other wealthy private schools. It is not a reasonable allocation of public money. The funding of the less wealthy schools is not good either because they are often trying to teach children untrue things and they can also have worse resources than the local public school.

  22. [Because of the Branding of the Party with Brown as FEDERAL Leader – remove all referewnces to Brown from States Greens Advertising etc and those figures won’t be as high.]

    On how many pieces of advertising was Bob Brown in the last few State elections?

  23. [The funding for wealthy private schools does not get put into lowering fees but building more lavish facilities to compete with other wealthy private schools. It is not a reasonable allocation of public money. The funding of the less wealthy schools is not good either because they are often trying to teach children untrue things and they can also have worse resources than the local public school.]

    But it was the PERCEPTION that was Labor’s undoing and I’ve seen school newsletters from the time virtually begging parents to re-elect the Government.

  24. [The funding for wealthy private schools does not get put into lowering fees but building more lavish facilities to compete with other wealthy private schools. It is not a reasonable allocation of public money]

    Interestingly certain Private schools are suing parents for unpaid fees, in some cases forcing homes to be sold to satisfy debt.
    As a recipient of public money, surely they should put education ahead of profits

  26. The Greens and Senator X can`t negotiate an ETS deal because of Fielding, the Liberals, the Nationals and Labor are opposed to doing anywhere near enough to what is necessary.

    The Greens are not a one man party. The have many supporters, members, voters and elected representatives. The Greens also have a coherent ideology. I believe that the Greens now have more MPs than the Democrats ever had at once. The Greens also have councillors. The Greens have a larger membership than the Democrats did. The Democrats outlasted Don Chipp`s political career.

  28. Tom,

    Which only begs the question, “What are the Greens for and how does them being elected influence the issues they allegedly feel most passionate about?”

    Please, do tell us all about this coherent ideology. If it’s like the definition of socially progressive, I’ll be waiting a long time.

  29. Why do Greens bloggers still maintain that Bob Brown signed Jimi Hendrix’s death certificate when Dr Brown has tried to make it clear that isn’t the case?

  30. [The Government’s emissions trading legislation will be debated in the House of Representatives this week. It is then expected to go to the Senate later this month where the Government needs the support of either the Opposition or the Greens and other minor party senators.

    The Minister for Climate Change, Penny Wong, said the Opposition was planning to “take its bat and ball and go home” which meant the Government would have to work with the Greens and other Senate players.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/coalition-split-looms-over-emissions-trading-20090531-brqu.html

  31. [Why do Greens bloggers still maintain that Bob Brown signed Jimi Hendrix’s death certificate when Dr Brown has tried to make it clear that isn’t the case?]

    Ahh, and proof of the Greens and their supporters trying to rewrite history like Forrest Gump.

    could only find a french version.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3ZFRpPTvmg

  32. [If the Coalition won the next election and had Greens the bop in the Senate. Would the Greens trade the re installment of Workchoices for tougher a CC policies?]

    Highly doubt it.

  33. [Highly doubt it.]

    Umm, didn’t Meg Lees agree to the partial sale of Telstra in return for some sort of environmental deal ?

  34. [Because of the Branding of the Party with Brown as FEDERAL Leader – remove all referewnces to Brown from States Greens Advertising etc and those figures won’t be as high.]

    But you haven’t answered the question – why is state Green polling higher than federal Green polling?

  35. Yup i can remember Bob Brown featuring pretty highly in the advertising around Freo. I’d say that he is definitely the face of Greens credibility as far as a lot of center-left voters out there are concerned and its them that the Greens need win over to if they are going to keep what influence they have, or improve on it.

    Will be interesting to see if the Greens can stay united in the face of the CPRS negotiations, or whether there will be some kind of split between those who will negotiate to get something in place as a framework(and then improve on it after the next election when the Greens have a real shot at BOP in the Senate), and those who will want to push a more radical agenda. Milne doesn’t even want to start talking till the Govt agrees to 25% min cut (re:y2k levels) by 2020 and that aint going to happen. Politically its too much too soon.

    I think if the Greens show willing and can get some changes (but probably not all they want) then they will be setting themselves up well for the next election be it a DD or not. They aren’t going to lose much if any of their left wing support as those people have no-where else to go, but they could pick up quite a bit of center-left support if they play this right and don’t scare them off.

  36. See, even St Kev gets tested for Swine Flu – from Twitter:

    [KevinRuddPMStill a long way to go. Got tested for swine flu on return because I had a sore throat. Test negative. Just the normal lurgie.about 7 hours ago from web ]

  37. [Yup i can remember Bob Brown featuring pretty highly in the advertising around Freo. I’d say that he is definitely the face of Greens credibility as far as a lot of center-left voters out there are concerned and its them that the Greens need win over to if they are going to keep what influence they have, or improve on it.]

    And imacca has answered bob1234’s question @1084 THAT is why the Greens have a high polling figure.

  38. [Umm, didn’t Meg Lees agree to the partial sale of Telstra in return for some sort of environmental deal ?]

    A partial sale of Telstra, and WorkChoices, are two extremely different things.

  39. [Will be interesting to see if the Greens can stay united in the face of the CPRS negotiations, or whether there will be some kind of split between those who will negotiate to get something in place as a framework(and then improve on it after the next election when the Greens have a real shot at BOP in the Senate), and those who will want to push a more radical agenda. Milne doesn’t even want to start talking till the Govt agrees to 25% min cut (re:y2k levels) by 2020 and that aint going to happen. Politically its too much too soon.]

    That is the $64,000 questions that our Green Bludgers have a problem answering – if they go Milne’s path they would’ve squandered an opportunity to get some sort of basic framework which can be improved on later when the economy is in a much healthier shape than what is it at the moment. OR they can maintain the Moral High Ground and suffer politically as the Libs and industry mount a campaign branding an ETS a threat to the economy and jobs – especially in rural seats.

  40. [A partial sale of Telstra, and WorkChoices, are two extremely different things.]

    No, they are similar concepts both were major idiological platforms of the Liberal Party – Howard got his way on the former by offering Meg Lees 30 pieces of silver in exchange for her support – Telstra could well find a particular Greens Hobby Horse and do EXACTLY the same thing.

  41. Telstra could well find a particular Greens Hobby Horse and do EXACTLY the same thing.

    If you’re going to attempt to analogise from history, at least make sure you actually know your history.

    The Democrats were formed on the basis of taking a middle ground between the parties, and attempting to compromise as such. There were tensions with these back at least as far as the early 80s, before Lees finally applied that philosophy disastrously to the GST.

    The Greens can’t be bought off like that. The only way you’d ever see a Liberal-Green government would be if the Liberals stayed the hell away from anything as controversial as WorkChoices, since it would a) get blocked, and b) probably cause the fall of the government.

  42. [The Greens can’t be bought off like that. The only way you’d ever see a Liberal-Green government would be if the Liberals stayed the hell away from anything as controversial as WorkChoices, since it would a) get blocked, and b) probably cause the fall of the government.]

    ANYBODY can be bought if the price is right 🙂

  43. [And imacca has answered bob1234’s question @1084 THAT is why the Greens have a high polling figure.]

    Not at all. If this were the case then state polling would equal federal polling. But state polling is higher IN EVERY STATE than federal polling… but you keep ignoring this?

  44. [No, they are similar concepts]

    No they aren’t. WorkChoices takes away the rights of workers. Telstra privatisation is Telstra privatisation.

  46. [No they aren’t. WorkChoices takes away the rights of workers. Telstra privatisation is Telstra privatisation.]

    But you still don’t get it – both were examples of Liberal Party idiology being implemented.

  49. [But you still don’t get it – both were examples of Liberal Party idiology being implemented.]

    Since when were the Democrats out to stifle Liberal Party legislation? They were there to shave the hard edges off legislation of the government of the day.

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