Party games

No Morgan poll this week. Here’s some of the other mail:

• The Launceston Examiner reports that Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, veteran of numerous overseas postings and until recently the Australian Defence Force’s director-general of public affairs, has “confirmed that he is interested” in Liberal preselection for the federal seat of Bass. Also said to have his eye on the preselection is Senator Guy Barnett, who will otherwise have to settle for the slighly less appealing prospect of number three on the Liberal ticket.

Michelle Grattan reports on a “glowing reference” for Kooyong preselection aspirant Josh Frydenberg from John Howard. Another of Frydenberg’s backers is Andrew Peacock. His principal rival, industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto, is supported by Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam, who was himself sniffing the breeze before deciding not to proceed. Former Liberal president and Fraser government minister Tony Staley has given his seal of approval to Peter Jonson, a 62-year-old former Reserve Bank official known to the web at large as Henry Thornton.

• The Townsville Bulletin reports there are rumours that prodigious McDonald’s franchiser George Colbran again hopes to run for Labor in Herbert, where he narrowly failed to unseat Peter Lindsay in 2007. Colbran reportedly says he “won’t commit either way”.

David Rood of The Age reports that John Brumby has “cleared the way” for Keilor MP George Seitz to be dumped at the next election, amid the fallout from the Ombudsman’s recent report into Brimbank City Council. The party’s administrative committee will decide this evening whether to take preselections for western suburbs seats out of the hands of local branches, in which Seitz and others remain powerful. Also affected will be Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz, whose preselection ahead of last year’s by-election formed the backdrop of much of the shenanigans investigated by the Ombudsman, and Derrimut MP Telmo Languiller. Labor sources quoted in the article wonder why both Languiller and Western Metropolitan MLC Theo Theophanous aren’t equally being targeted along with Seitz, so it evidently should not be taken for granted that either Languiller or Kairouz are endangered.

• Taking his cue from Manmohan Singh’s assumption of the Indian prime ministership from the upper house, Malcolm Mackerras argues for an end to the convention that Australia’s party leaders must sit in the lower house, which he relates to the anachronistic presumption that it is the more democratic chamber.

• Final score from the Fremantle by-election: Carles 10,664, Tagliaferri 9,100. Margin: 3.96 per cent. I expected Labor would rein it in a little on late counting, but no.

• With the whiff of a dying government in the air, talk of electoral reform is very much in vogue in London this season, just as was when the scandal-ridden Major government was breathing its last. Conservative leader David Cameron opposes proportional representation but promises to “look seriously” at fixed terms. Health Secretary Alan Johnson – “still the favourite to lead Labour if Gordon Brown is removed from the top job“ – has suggested the government at last look seriously at the “Alternative Vote Plus” model which has been floating around since the 1998 report of the Jenkins commission, which was set up when Tony Blair came to power. It proposes a slightly watered down version of German/NZ style MMP, combining constituency members with party list members to produce a proportional result. Unlike Germany and NZ however, there would be a cap on the number of party list members which might make results less than fully proportional. The “Alternative Vote” part of the title refers to Australian-style preferential voting for the constituency seats, which the Jenkins commission appeared to be taken with as it had just helped defeat Pauline Hanson. From the Jenkins commission report, a “note of reservation by Lord Alexander”:

My colleagues also think that AV will contribute to a less confrontational style of politics because candidates will be inhibited from attacking rivals too strongly as they wish to gain their second votes. I do not see it as particularly desirable that candidates from different parties, who are different precisely because they do not agree on all issues, should be pulling their punches in order to seek approval from voters who support other parties. In any event, from my observation of Australia, which is the only single large country to use AV, their politicians tend to be, if anything, more blunt and outspoken than our own.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,122 comments on “Party games”

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  1. ShowsOn if they were smart they’d have had them as a box set that means you’d double your market and it would be worth watching the other sides one for comedy 🙂

  2. [I haven’t seen any media references to how many people in Australia are actually *sick* with swine flu, as opposed to testing postive for H1N1. Does anyone have any knowledge about this? Is anyone seriously ill with this flu?]

    Apparently all of the cases are Mild and they are being quarentined at home and given Tamiflu, so far none have rquired Hospital treatment.

  3. William said on Kooyong:

    [Former Liberal president and Fraser government minister Tony Staley has given his seal of approval to Peter Jonson, a 62-year-old former Reserve Bank official.]

    Peter Jonson also writes a column for The Australian under the historical pseudonym “Henry Thornton”

  4. [I haven’t seen any media references to how many people in Australia are actually *sick* with swine flu, as opposed to testing postive for H1N1.]
    Roxon said most of them are recovering fine after taking Tamiflu.

    But 11 people died from it in the U.S., so I think it is fine for the Government to be careful.

  5. Adam, it looks as though someone has taken notice of your suggestion!

    [Let swine flu run its course: expert]

    [Infectious disease experts are starting to criticise Australia’s swine flu containment policy, instead pushing for it to be treated like any other seasonal flu.

    The number of cases of the new strain of H1N1 influenza has now passed 200.

    Thousands of people are in quarantine and authorities are trying to trace everyone who may have been in contact with the virus.

    Nationally, preventative measures are in overdrive.

    Professor Peter Collignon from ANU’s School of Clinical Medicine says authorities should let the swine flu run its course.

    “Initially, we had information from Mexico that suggested this was much more aggressive,” he said.

    “It was entirely appropriate, but from what I can see from other places – particularly Los Angeles and Canada – they are treating this as normal seasonal influenza now.

    “I think there would be a lot of arguments that we might go along the same way.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/29/2585109.htm

  6. There were a few reasons for the high mortality rate in Mexico (which did drop dramatically when they worked out most never had swine flu). Their medical care is pretty crappy. They weren’t prepared. Lots were sick already.

    But overwhelmingly the main reason was selection bias. They only tested the sick ones who went to hospital for H1N1, of whom quite a few died. All the ones who had a mild flu never went near the hospital, let alone being tested for H1N1.

    I suppose you all saw the beatup in the OO today. It screamed;

    [KEVIN Rudd was today forced to defend the official response to swine flu, with an angry mother accusing the Government of bungling on talkback radio.

    Amid growing unease about the Government’s handling of the outbreak, a caller to Melbourne station 3AW said the treatment her child received was “worse than a third world country”.

    “This is just not good enough Mr Rudd,” she said, “it’s not good enough.”

    The accusation came as The Australian’s Online Poll showed 59 per cent thought the Government’s response was inappropriate. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25555590-601,00.html

    Gary will be pleased to note the use of the phrase “Rudd…was forced to defend” rather than “Rudd corrected the caller…”

  7. [I want the ABC to reissue Labor in Power on DVD. They put The Howard Years out immediately, but I believe Labor in Power has only ever been released on VHS.]

    A mate of mine enquired a couple years ago. Apparently the ABC don’t own the copyright.

    [Is your daughter entitled to a free flu vaccination because of her history?]

    Not sure – she has Down Syndrome so any chest infections tend to knock her around due to the low muscle tone.

    [ Is anyone seriously ill with this flu?]

    Well one guy in the ACT said he had had worse paper cuts. (but paper cuts can bloody hurt!)

  8. [Not sure – she has Down Syndrome so any chest infections tend to knock her around due to the low muscle tone. ]

    Well I have Spina Bifida with well as Kidney problems associated with it, so I’m entitled to the Flu Jab, but I only pay the PBS Concession price of $5.00 or whatever it is these days.

  9. At least Capolingua had some idea that there was a problem but she kind of missed the point.

    [Too often today the AMA is characterised as a right wing doctor’s union.

    While we will never apologise for fighting for doctors and the medical profession, the AMA’s activities extend far beyond the pecuniary interests of doctors.

    Of course our detractors rely on this false perception of our function.

    It is vastly easier to dismiss the “mercenary intentions of a greedy doctors union” than it is to dismiss those of the most powerful and independent voice of health in this country.

    Government and the media see mileage in vilifying the profession. ]

    http://www.ama.com.au/node/4718

    It’s true that the AMA isn’t JUST there to act as a “greedy doctor’s union”. They also act as useful organisation for useless GPs with inferiorty complexes to shelter in. Once or twice, they point out that we don’t have enough hospital beds but they never go out on a limb on that one. They’d prefer to keep their powder dry for a real fight like GPs salaries.

  10. Typical Liberal tactics.
    * Liberal stooge rings talkback radio, screams about how Labor government is ruining / killing / starving / corrupting her family.
    * Minister responds saying this is all tosh and everything is under control.
    * Murdoch reports this as “Minister forced to defend” or “Minister fails to deny” etc etc.
    * Liberal MPs read out Murdoch press in QT as though it was holy writ, demand Minister apologise / resign / do handstands.
    * Murdoch press reports Liberal antics at QT as “Rudd under pressure” for “Minister’s failure to deny” that Labor government is ruining / killing / starving / corrupting ordinary families.
    * Start again…

  11. Said lady was on Ch 9 news whinging that they had to wait 3 1/2 hours at the hospital emergency dept. Beats me why she was whinging I thought it normally took 6-8.

  12. [Said lady was on Ch 9 news whinging that they had to wait 3 1/2 hours at the hospital emergency dept. Beats me why she was whinging I thought it normally took 6-8.]

    And depending on the time of day, she could’ve easily gone to a After Hours GP Clinic attached to a Public Hospital, or attend her local GP.

  13. You’ll notice the poll they used was whether the response was “inappropriate”. So all the people who thought we were going overboard voted against Rudd. And all the people who were outraged that Rudd recklessly let swine flu loose on the population also thought the response was inappropriate. The article doesn’t actually say what Rudd and Roxon SHOULD have done because the media don’t know, and don’t particularly care.

  14. 3-4 hours is a perfectly normal wait at an ER for a patient who should have gone to their GP. If you get in the ER door straight away with any crap, no-one would ever go to their GP.

  15. [Rudd was today forced to defend]

    Wonder if the Murdoch goons in Australia realise how bad their rubbish is? Their they are masturbating behind their desks not thinking nobody knows what they are doing.

    Don’t eat the biscuits at The Australian or DT is all I can say.

  16. I don’t understand what the government should do differently about swine flu? They have to consider the fact that some people will panic, so they essentially have to cover those fears.

  17. From the OO:

    […with an angry mother accusing the Government of bungling on talkback radio]

    But the government doesn’t GO on talkback radio. Kevin does, from time to time, but not the government. How would they fit that many people into a studio!

  18. [But the government doesn’t GO on talkback radio. Kevin does, from time to time, but not the government. How would they fit that many people into a studio!]

    But according to the dimwitted Talkback Callers and the OO- Kevin IS The Government. 🙂

  19. The Republicans maybe just crazy enough to try it.

    [Operation Gringo: Can the Republicans Sacrifice the Hispanic Vote and Win the White House?

    Since the Republicans, to say the least, do not seem particularly inclined to curry favor with Hispanic voters by playing nice on Sonia Sotomayor, it’s worth engaging in the following thought experiment: Can the Republicans win back the White House in 2012 or 2016 while losing further ground among Latinos? And if so, what is their most plausible path to victory?]

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/operation-gringo-can-republicans.html

  20. I heard that caller to Mitchell and Rudd. Talk about set up. As it turns out the hospital concerned refute her story. Rudd offered her assistance from his department and Roxon’s and she still easn’t pleased.

  21. [I heard that caller to Mitchell and Rudd. Talk about set up. As it turns out the hospital concerned refute her story. Rudd offered her assistance from his department and Roxon’s and she still easn’t pleased.]

    Similar to a story in WA when Hospital Staff leaked photos of an “Elderly” Woman lying on some chairs to the West etc and it then transpired that she wasn’t elderly, and she specifically asked that she lie on the chairs.

    It was later featured on Media Watch.

    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s2042149.htm

  22. [Oh and that bloody Rudd. How dare he work so hard in a time of economic crisis.]

    That was given a good run by Mark Reilly on Seven Nooz as well tonight.

  23. Good old Mad Monk.

    [Opposition frontbencher Tony Abbott says the Federal Government’s stimulus spending could worsen the impact of a potential recession.

    The national accounts figures are due to be released next week and are expected to confirm Australia is in recession.

    Mr Abbott has told ABC1’s Lateline that the Government’s spending will not soften the impact of an economic downturn.

    “All of the money that they are spending is not going to stop us going into recession, it’s not going to stop the recession being long and deep,” he said.

    “I would argue that the recession will actually be worse in the long run because of the measures that they have taken.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/30/2585153.htm?section=justin

  24. If Tony Abbott actually believes that then thank God he is not in power.

    So if he is against stimulus what would his solution be? Nothing? Cut taxes?

    [“I would argue that the recession will actually be worse in the long run because of the measures that they have taken.”]

    And here there are shades of hoping that it will come to pass so he can use this argument again.

  25. [No Morgan poll this week.]
    They rang here the other night so does this mean they are doing a 2 week phone+face-to-face or are Morgan moving more towards phone polling?

  26. Flu kills, but the odds are usually pretty low. It did last year, it will this year and it will probable do so next year. Excellent health system and all, there is a chance that “swine flu” will kill someone in Australia. I expect a totally feral media and a state funeral if and when it happens.

    Giving a version of the fly a scary name doesn’t change the odds.

    The immune system responds better if it has seen something similar to whatever is coming, if you think this one is going to mutate into something that will actually increase the odds next time, catch this one, the odds that you will survive seem pretty good.

    The health department may actually regret their action, we could in a years time have truck loads of talkback callers pointing out that less would have died if the milder version had spread more widely. It might be wise for the health departments to look at how the Spanish fly progressed. It’s pretty much accepted that those who caught the first wave did a lot better in the second.

    I suspect the current response by the health departments will make their life more difficult when something serious does happen. If this over reaction to mild version of the flu happens a couple of more times the general population will have pretty much learnt to ignore them and the press.

    A serious outbreak of something will require the suspension of all travel, for people to accept that they need some faith in the system.

  27. GP

    If you believe Abbot is on the money then you to have a very poor grasp of economics. I aren’t going to write a two thousand word essay trying to explain it to you. My suggestion is your talk to you mates in parliament , ask them to stop behaving like high school prats and you and them sit quietly and listens when Tanner talks, you might learn something.

  28. fredn:

    [It might be wise for the health departments to look at how the Spanish fly progressed. It’s pretty much accepted that those who caught the first wave did a lot better in the second.]

    Fair enough, but it’s my understanding that one of the reasons the Spanish flu was so deadly is that secondary bacterial infections such as pneumonia set in. We now have antibiotics and pneumonia vaccinations that would help considerably on that score.

    But Diogenes would be better able than I am to comment.

  29. [Fitzgibbon faces new claims over China trip – ASSOCIATES of the businesswoman Helen Liu claim Chinese intelligence services asked them to cultivate a relationship with Joel Fitzgibbon and his father, Eric Fitzgibbon, after they were flown first-class to China in 1993.]

    * New? – this was claimed all along
    * How many alleges can you have before it is a lie
    * Associates and sources – name names, you fool, as Gus would say
    * expressed interest – just ask my wife, i have expressed interest to become the Queen of Sheba

    This should be placed on the front page of SMH & TA:

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