ACNielsen: 53-47

The first post-budget poll is an ACNielsen survey of 1400 respondents, and it’s given Labor its second weakest poll result since the election of the Rudd government. The first was the same outfit’s 52-48 result from September last year. ACNielsen’s previous survey in March had Labor’s lead at 58-42. The poll finds that:

• Labor’s primary vote is down three points since March to 44 per cent, while the Coalition is up six to 43 per cent.

• The Coalition has opened up a most unlikely sounding five point primary vote lead in Victoria, after trailing by 20 per cent in March.

• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 69-24 to 64-28.

• Rudd’s approval rating is down 10 points to 64 per cent, and his disapproval is up 10 to 32 per cent. Turnbull’s ratings are unchanged at 43 per cent and 47 per cent.

• While 56 per cent believe the budget to have been fair, only 40 per cent support the budget’s phased increase in the age of pension eligibility from 65 to 67, and 38 per cent say the budget will make them worse off personally. Twenty-three per cent say it will make them better off.

The print edition will presumably feature a full chart with none-too-reliable state breakdowns.

UPDATE: No such budget narrowing from Essential Research, which has Labor’s two-party lead up from 61-39 to 62-38. However, Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down nine points from three weeks ago to 61 per cent, while his disapproval is up eight to 29 per cent. Turnbull is respectively up two to 30 per cent and up one to 49 per cent. Interestingly, fewer people found the budget bad for them personally than had expected to beforehand. Twenty-five per cent say it will make them more likely to vote Coalition against 22 per cent Labor. Peter Brent has ACNielsen’s state, area, gender and age breakdowns here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

717 comments on “ACNielsen: 53-47”

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  2. [Because everyone knows Liberal supporters can’t get any.]
    Like their education policy, if they can’t get any based on merit, they just pay for it.

  3. [Yes Grog, big stakes poker is at play here, and I reckon the Greens are going to lose if they are not seen as responsible enough to ever make an agreement with a major party on their very core issue.]

    You could be right. This is certainly the Green’s GST moment.

    As I have said previously on other threads the big difference is the majroity of Dem’s supporters did not want a GST, whereas all the Greens supporters want a ETS (or something). So the trick is working out do they want a flawed ETS, or nothing.

    Best casse for them is they get the ALP to “improve it”. But I can;t see why Rudd would do that, given that would mean also having to herd the two cats of Xena and Fielding. Much better for him to put it all on the head of Turnbull.

  4. [Finns, You understand economics. Stimulus first, orgasm later.]

    Sorry Amigo, i got it wrong way around. No wonder the missus has not been happy with me lately. Must try harder and better.

  6. Actually bob I voted for Janet Powell in 1987 and Sid Spindler in 1990. I decided I wouldn’t vote for them again after they sided with the extreme left in opposing the first Gulf War, a just war endorsed by the UN.

  7. Grog,

    It’s the Republican debate all over again.

    Get on board the only train going or sit around waiting for a better option.

    Am not particularly fussed if the Greens want to play or not.

  8. [There’ll always be more orgasms under a Labor government.]

    I don’t seem to recall a downturn in orgasms since Rudd’s ascendancy. 🙂

  10. I can’t see the Greens agreeing to any carbon scheme, or tax or whatever. Being able to bitch and moan about the major parties raping the earth is their raison d’etre.

  12. [Grog,
    It’s the Republican debate all over again.
    Get on board the only train going or sit around waiting for a better option.]

    That would be my play GG. Vote for it, but make it clear that it needs improving – and then seek a “mandate” to do so.

    I’ve always argued that it’s easier to improve a system than bring in a new one.

  13. Grog

    I hope the ETS passes, although it’s a terrible policy.

    At the same time, I often vote Green and I hope they vote against it, even if it means it dies in the Senate. The 10% or so of people who vote Green aren’t doing so for them to support a climate change policy that Howard could have written.

    There is a perverted logic in there.

  14. [Actually bob I voted for Janet Powell in 1987 and Sid Spindler in 1990. I decided I wouldn’t vote for them again after they sided with the extreme left in opposing the first Gulf War, a just war endorsed by the UN.]

    So if Iraq was endorsed by the UN you’d have supported that?

    The Gulf War was not the right thing to do. It seems only the independents Ted Mack and Phil Cleary had a conscience in the lower house. Everyone else was morally bankrupt.

  15. [I don’t seem to recall a downturn in orgasms since Rudd’s ascendancy. 🙂 ]

    That’s because you can’t get your hand off it.

    [Zing!]

  17. [ I decided I wouldn’t vote for them again after they sided with the extreme left in opposing the first Gulf War, a just war endorsed by the UN.]

    Back then when I was at uni, I went along in a protest march against the War. Was not against the war at all, just wanted to be in a protest march. Think about half way down North Tce, I decided to stop and grab a coffee.

    And thus ended my tperiod as a left wing radical. 🙂

  18. [The Gulf War was not the right thing to do. It seems only the independents Ted Mack and Phil Cleary had a conscience in the lower house. Everyone else was morally bankrupt.]
    So even when the U.N. security council votes for a war, you still don’t think it is justified?

    Can you at least be honest and say that you would NEVER support a war under ANY circumstance?

  19. lol, Swan got asked who he’d prefer as Liberal leader, Turnbull or Costello. Swan replies “same horse different jockey” 😀

  20. [So if Iraq was endorsed by the UN you’d have supported that?]

    The UN not supporting it was a pretty major point bob.

    The First Iraq War was the right thing to do – Iraq invaded Kuawit. What else was the rest of the world supposed to do?

  21. Hi Gus, here’s the info you were asking about last night.

    HISTORY AUSTRALIA, VOLUME 3, NUMBER 1, 2006 MONASH UNIVERSITY EPRESS

    publications.epress.monash.edu/doi/pdf/10.2104/ha060010

    Relevant quote is –

    “While reformers such as Don Dunstan wanted a multiracial and multicultural Australia, others,
    such as Fred Daly and Arthur Calwell, defended the White Australia policy. Neither Calwell nor
    Daly felt bound by the party platform. In 1971, Whitlam was obliged to sack Daly as immigration
    spokesman over comments that endorsed the White Australia policy.”

    There is also reference to this on Wiki but thought you might like something more substantial.

    I don’t want to start the debate again but thought you’d like to know.

  22. [So even when the U.N. security council votes for a war, you still don’t think it is justified?]

    The UN doesn’t have a monopoly on what is right.

    [Can you at least be honest and say that you would NEVER support a war under ANY circumstance?]

    It depends on the circumstances, but I’d have to see a very solid reason, like an imminent war on home soil.

  24. Japan certainly doesn’t do things by halves. Technically, the WHO has to increase it’s pandemic level to 6 now, making swine flu a full pandemic. I’ll be interested to see if they do. The mortality rate still is only about 1%.

    [JAPAN has reported 135 swine flu cases and shut more than 2000 schools and kindergartens in a bid to slow the spread of the virus that may already have infected hundreds.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25503956-5005962,00.html

  26. I wonder how many of the 10% or so Greens voters would be prepared to vote for a Greens ETS over a Labor ETS which contain economic realities?

    I’d say 3% tops!

  28. [Not long now.. just want to hear so I can go to bed!]

    And if they release them tomorrow morning rather than tonight? Or do their once in a blue moon poll skips? You’ll be up a long time 😛

  29. Dio they were talking about that on Newsradio this morning. The belief is that the phrase “pandemic” has such bad connotations that they don’t want to do it.

    People think pandemic means deaths a plenty, and not the WHO definition.

  30. [The UN doesn’t have a monopoly on what is right.]
    There are so many conflicting interests in that forum that if the security council endorses a military intervention, then it is pretty well an open and shut case.
    [It depends on the circumstances, but I’d have to see a very solid reason, like an imminent war on home soil.]
    OK, so your only reason for support a war was say, if Australia was attacked like in World War II.

    Other than that, our foreign policy should be completely isolationist?

  33. Winston

    Wilhelm would ban me ( or even worse, use one of his pithy putdowns) if I even dared respond

    but tanks anyway
    🙂

  34. [And who gave Iraq weapons to do so?]
    Irrelevant. Just because a country has weapons doesn’t mean they should invade other countries.

  35. [OK, so your only reason for support a war was say, if Australia was attacked like in World War II.

    Other than that, our foreign policy should be completely isolationist?]

    As I said, it depends on the circumstances. But I do not believe Vietnam, the Gulf War, or Iraq were warranted.

  36. [Irrelevant. Just because a country has weapons doesn’t mean they should invade other countries.]

    The US were idiots to give the dictator weapons in the first place. Then they decide to invade the country they armed. Well done.

  37. BTW i’m not here to start debating the pros and cons of various wars. I’ve stated my opinion as have others. I don’t care to get in to long protracted debates on it.

    BRING ON NEWSPOLL!!!

  38. [And who gave Iraq weapons to do so?]

    So what. That is the fault of the USA (And Russia et al). It didn’t give Iraq a free pass to violate international borders, and it didn’t mean the US (or Russia et al) were not allowed to defend a nation whose borders had been invaded.

  42. [As I said, it depends on the circumstances. But I do not believe Vietnam, the Gulf War, or Iraq were warranted.]
    So that means you are endorsing the right of countries to unilaterally invade each other.
    [The US were idiots to give the dictator weapons in the first place. Then they decide to invade the country they armed. Well done.]
    These aren’t explanations for why it was wrong for a U.N. force to invade Iraq after Iraq had invaded Kuwait.

  43. [They’ll only hold off on a late release if the results are bad for the Liberals.]

    They’re probably letting Oz journalists get their articles in order for a maximum of spin.

  44. [They’ll only hold off on a late release if the results are bad for the Liberals.]

    Oh cuppa you old conspiracy theorist!!

    Actually if they had been really good, there would have been a chance they would have got a mention on Sky’s agenda.

  48. Grog

    As you say, you can have a pandemic in which no-one dies. There’s an awful lot of politics in this whole swine flu thing. Still, their definition says level 6 is when two continents have shown sustained human-to-human transmission and we have that now.

  50. Finns

    when the kaiser speaks we all listen

    [Yes, this isn’t the first time you’ve ended up having a different conversation from everybody else.]

    even when no-ones listening
    😉

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