… with some God-fearing Good Friday news nuggets to tide you over until the pubs re-open.
• Senate polls have consistently proved themselves to be pointless endeavours, but let the record note that Roy Morgan has produced one from their last three months of surveys. This might be of at least some use if Morgan gave South Australian respondents a chance to indicate support for Nick Xenophon, but they presumably don’t because he is not up for re-election next time (unless there’s a double dissolution of course). Nonetheless, South Australia shows an “others” result of 19.5 per cent compared with 8 per cent nationally.
• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected three candidates for the Hobart electorate of Denison for next year’s state election, after earlier delaying the process due to concerns about a “lack of high-profile talent”. The nominees are 70-year-old incumbent Michael Hodgman; lawyer Elise Archer, who polled a solid 3.2 per cent at the 2006 election; and Matt Stevenson, state president of the Young Liberals. No sign of contentious Hobart alderman Marti Zucco, but two positions remain to be filled.
• Yesterday’s Crikey Daily Mail had a piece by Malcolm Mackerras noting the looming by-election in New Zealand for Helen Clark’s seat of Mount Albert, and the absurdity of such a thing in a supposedly proportional representation system. If it loses, Labour will be deprived of one of the seats entitled to it by its national vote share at last November’s election. New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system is modelled on Germany’s, but departs from it in that vacated constituency seats in Germany are filled by unelected candidates from the party’s national lists – which New Zealand was obviously loath to do as it would randomly match members to electorates with which they had no connection.
• Mackerras also notes that the May 12 election in the Canadian province of British Columbia will be held in conjunction with a second referendum seeking to replace its first-past-the-post single-member constituency system with “BC-STV” (British Columbia-Single Transferable Vote). I take this to be identical in every respect to Hare-Clark as it operates in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (complete with Robson rotation and optional preferential voting), except the number of members per region will range from two to seven. A referendum was also held at the previous election in 2005, but it received 57.7 per cent support while requiring 60 per cent to be binding. Get funky with the official website of British Columbians for BC-STV.
UPDATE (11/4/09): The West Australian carries a second Westpoll survey of 400 respondents on the May 16 daylight saving referendum, showing 47 per cent supporting and 51 per cent opposed compared with 42 per cent and 57 per cent at the poll last month. The West’s report says this means “community support for daylight saving has climbed steadily over the last month”, but I don’t need to tell you all what a load of bollocks that is. Taken together, the surveys suggest the proposal is most likely headed for defeat by the same narrow-ish margins as in 1975, 1984 and 1992.
The Greens best chances at the moment are in seats that were safe Labor until the Greens came along.
For example the four seats most likely to be won in the Legislative Assembly in Victoria are the fomer safe Labor seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and the safeish Northcote. The first seat fitting into the overtake Labor is the possible fifth, Prahran where the Greens are on 20% and Labor 36% with an ALP tpp of 53%.
Big call, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility that The Greens outpoll both Labor and Liberal in primaries in the NSW state seat of Balmain next election.
As I’ve mentioned earlier in this thread, after the Icelandic general election later this month the Green-Left Movement, who are pretty similar to the Aussie Greens (although the GLM is not a member of the Global Greens) will most likely finish second after the Social Democrats but before the Tories. True, the circumstances are different and the electorate tiny but if it IS happening there then it COULD happen here.
bob
Lindsay Tanner got 49.5% of the primary vote. Plus the Libs may not run dead in every electorate? 😉
[Lindsay Tanner got 49.5% of the primary vote. Plus the Libs may not run dead in every electorate?]
The Libs will run dead in safe Labor electorates. If they can’t win it, they’d prefer another party rather than Labor to hold it.
Tanner may have got 49.5% of the primary, but what happens when Labor’s popularity fades?
Tanner only got an extra 5% on prefs. Greens went from 22.8% primary to 45.3% 2pp.
What is the lowest percentage in Melbourne that Lindsay T needs to hold the seat.
I would hate to see him go.
Had the mob here for Easter and all of them – kids, teenage grandkids an oldies were in high excitement about Kev’s broadband plan. Grandkids all happy to fork out for years into the future for it.
So – next issue, Mr Turnbull? You lost this one.
Ruawake, you may not like the prospect, but that doesn’t have any impact on the Greens chances in Melbourne (unless you’re from that electorate in which case it makes 1/90,000 of the outcome). Greens were tantilizingly close in Freo, Mayo + half a dozen sydney and melbournce state electorates. I suspect there will be another swing to the Greens as there has been at every federal election since 1996 I think (?), in which case they would get over the line sooner or later.
Bob1234,
Can’t stand the truth! Tough!
JV,
Just because you keep regurgitating the same rubbish, does not make it true. There is no equity argument and PR is never going to happen. Deal with it.
People are not disenfranchised, they are just on the losing end of the democratic process. Work harder.
Tanner is better than most in the ALP and i’d rather see many other faces go before his but them’s the breaks, he’ll have to make way for progress.
Newsflash: Janet Albrechtsen Gets New Job Offer
Reports are coming in of a new position being offered to The Australian’s Janet Albrechtsen. Ms Albrechtsen is currently exploring other employment opportunities, having alienated even the management of the paper by describing the Chief Justice of the High Court as, “old prophylactic head”. Ms Albrechtsen is said to have received a letter from the CES offering her a position as a Black (?) Letter Judge. However, due to a faulty printer, there is a question mark over whether the letter in fact refers to “Black”, as the word in question is virtually indecipherable. Ms Albrechtsen is presuming it reads “Black”, as this would be totally in keeping with her approach to all matters legal.
Updated newsflash: Janet Albrechtsen Dudded
Reports are now coming in that the CES letter to Ms Albrechtsen actually refers to a vacant position, not as a Black Letter Judge, as previously reported, but as, in fact, a FRENCH Letter Judge! The Sydney-based Managing Director of the Durex subsidiary involved, also a relation of the Chief Justice, says he is very happy to have Ms Albrechtsen as their chief franger tester. “After all”, he said, “as blowhards go, they don’t get any better”. End of newsflash.
THM,
You really think that the electorate will turf a senior and respected Government Minister out of Parliament to accomodate a group of radical non entities.
You are delerious comrade.
As much as I like preferencing the Greens after Labor I certainly wouldn’t call the loss of Lindsay Tanner progress if he was replaced by a Green.
Bob Brown has shown a vast improvement in this Senate but many of them still lack a bit of responsibility in many ways.
[PR is never going to happen. Deal with it.]
Have you not been reading what i’ve been saying?
I support our current federal system. We get minor representation in the upper. I want to keep preferential single member electorates in the lower.
Sheesh.
[I suspect there will be another swing to the Greens as there has been at every federal election since 1996]
Indeed.
Tanner won’t lose Melbourne in a fit.
The Greens ran third on primaries, scraped ahead of Libs by 61 votes on CEC, SEP and Indi preferences. Stayed in front by 26 votes after FF preferences. Hit the lead for second by 590 votes courtesy of the Dems.
Then lost easily. 🙂
If Tanner loses Melbourne it is unlikely to be his own fault (unless he was a downward pressure on the governments greenhouse gas reduction targets or a rightist on some other Labor to Green vote switching issue) and may get elected/appointed to the Senate.
I’m sure people said Labor wouldn’t lose Cunningham either. Strange things happen.
bob @ 1363 – I think GG was aiming his elaborate, finely honed, elegant, sophisticated, and rational exposition at me on this occasion.
Bob,
Read my post and you will see that particular comment was not directed at you. Follow your own advice.
So Bolt’s prediction of Ruddy being a one term wonder could be right then and it will be The Greens who form Govt after winning all these Labor seats and kicking out the likes of Tanner, 😉 LOL fairies at the bottom of the garden living in fantasyland. Next thing we’ll be told the ALP and LIBS/Nats will have to form a coalition to survive.
I can just about put up with Bob Brown but the minute that Milne woman takes over Greens go to the bottom of my preferences.
Heck Glen I’d even put your mob higher up the list! 🙂
He got a 4.71% margin at a good election for his party so his seat is quite a target. That margin is more precarious because as Labor`s popularity goes down both the Green and Liberal votes go up meaning double trouble for him.
No one is saying that the Greens are going to win government or main opposition status at the next election. Just that they are in with a chance in one or more seats (but still a single digit number).
Although leadership isn’t important in the Greens, I’d like Milne to take over from Bob. Milne is also from the old guard, she was there from the begining. The formular is working. So let us move from Fidel to Raul, we can have our Deng in the distant future or hopefully not at all, by Deng i mean give up principle for pragmatism. Generational change can wait.
I think Gorbie was the first USSR leader uninvolved in the revolution or something like that. I can’t decide whether thats a point in favor of generational change or not.
[I’m sure people said Labor wouldn’t lose Cunningham either. Strange things happen]
Labor holds Cunningham with 53% primaries. After Organ lost it in 2004. 😛
by-elections are weird things.
But, Tom, the estimation of Tanner’s ability has risen heaps since the election so his electorate will rightly feel proud of him and then re-elect him in 2010 with a higher margin.
Altho the other mob are thinking that Labor will hit the skids before the next election there are no signs of that now.
We all know who looks after people better during downturns and it isn’t the other mob so I think poor little Boltie will be crying in his milk again in 2010. This ain’t a one term Govt.
Ruawake do you just dismiss out of hand the possibility of a Green ever winning a seat? Even when we were discussing PR for the HofR you still had this notion that it could not be done?
With Labor sitting on a TPP up near 60%, how many seats are they likely to lose to the Greens?
Brezhnev was the first uninvolved in the revolution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Brezhnev
In our feel good moments we think the Greens could be the answer so most of us hand them our preferences.
In our moments of reality we know they won’t be.
yes i knew they were all old jokers but that would seem a bit of a stretch. I’m thinking of something else. Either born after the revolution or not in the party till after all that Stalin clap-trap.
I did not say that the fall in the Labor vote would occur before or at the next election. The Labor vote will fall at some point in the future.
7%+ out of the 60 % tpp is from the Greens.
[Ruawake do you just dismiss out of hand the possibility of a Green ever winning a seat? Even when we were discussing PR for the HofR you still had this notion that it could not be done?]
Molotov.
I think I said the Greens would not win enough seats to influence who formed Govt. They would probably win one seat in Melb, Syd and Brisbane.
This would give them similar influence to Katter, Oakshott and Windsor.
As horrible as it is, I agree with the Labor team here ahead of my Green friends. Tanner would be a terrible loss and he’s much more valuable to the country than having a Green there. And if Milne takes over, I’ll be much more likely to vote for Labor if they can fix up their ETS strategy. She’s a shocker.
Cunningham was lost in a by-election after Martin retired, there was a messy pre selection process by Labor and lots of in-fighting, people realised it wouldn’t make a difference who was elected as Howard would still be in power reguardless. Thus the protest vote and Greens elected but were booted out 2 yrs later in the 2004 election. When they couldn’t even beat the Libs outa 2nd place.
2004
ORGAN, Michael The Greens 14,747
LARTER, John Liberal 21,115
BIRD, Sharon Australian Labor Party 29,041
2007
ORGAN, Michael The Greens 12,326
FOWLER, Colin Liberal 22,438
BIRD, Sharon Labor 44,835
Juliem – a quick one about the umps as I have to go shortly.
They were truly AWFUL on the weekend and I watched quite a few matches.
I think we need to start a PR about those blokes – they are spoiling the game.
Nostradamus predicted big thing for the Greens. So it must be true then that The Greens will form the Govt soon.
http://www.alibris.com/booksearch?qwork=5969927&matches=56&browse=1&subject=Nostradamus&cm_sp=works*listing*title
😆
[She’s a shocker.]
Diogenes we agree on something! 🙂
I agree with Dio – I can’t help but turn off when Christine Milne starts speaking. It’s a pity but Bob needs to find someone else to lead when he retires.
She can be totally aggravating.
Looks like my joint will be moved into Oakeshott territory. Even tho he won’t be getting my vote I am not unhappy about that because he is a good pollie. If the Greens are looking to win a seat they need to take a leaf out of his book.
Oz at 1352: it’s possible. The Liberals haven’t got such a low vote there, though… they’re still above 20%. (And next election, when Labor takes a beating, some of that vote would go to the Libs.) Where their vote’s really died in the arse is next door in Marrickville… they’ve been hovering around 12-13% for a while now, and have been coming third ever since 1995 when No Aircraft Noise came second (for those who whinge about the Greens being a single issue party… 😛 ). Carmel Tebbutt gets a much higher vote, but if her popularity gets hit by a truck for whatever reason, that’s probably the best chance the Greens have of winning on primary votes. (Then again, maybe I oughta look at the local govt election for a better idea of what’ll happen to the Liberal vote.)
As for the conversation about winning on Liberal preferences: I reckon after the Greens first win a seat (Fremantle / Balmain / wherever), if the Liberals are smart (note bolding 😉 ), they’ll start thinking seriously about who they’d prefer out of Labor and the Greens, instead of just putting Labor last because they’re the main opposition in every other seat. I’m not convinced 70-80% of Liberal voters put the Greens above Labor because of shared political ideology… that’s the HTV card talking. It’s always nice to win seats, but the Greens are gonna have to do better than just aiming for second place ahead of Liberals if they’re serious about becoming a fixture in the lower house.
74 Lab + 74 Coalition + 2 Greens could well make them more powerful than
76 Lab + 54 Coal. + 20 Greens. It all just depends.
I like Tanner, you get the feeling he’s a human when he’s interviewed, unlike Wong. Its just he’s the most marginal, perhaps Sydney or Graydnier. The ALP need a good scare so they need to lose seats. We need to move towards ecological sustainability and they aint doin it. Your old road is rapidly aging, please get out of the new one if you cant lend a hand, for the times they are a’ changing.
To be fair to Christine Milne she argues a policy position well, but compared to Bob she has the personality of a house brick.
And yes, personality is important in politics unfortunately.
[The ALP need a good scare so they need to lose seats.]
Strueth! They’ve only been in power for half a term! I would have thought 11yrs in the wilderness was scary enough 😉
Finns,
Just sampling all the Green Optimists here today, you could cut up all their ifs, buts and maybes, put them in the hat they are talking through, throw the lot into the air and the prophecy would be revealed.
“If wishes were fishes, we’d all cast nets in the sea”.
They need to be scared of the Left, not scared of the Right.
You mean scared of not having what, 8 or 9% of the vote?
Well Rachel Siewert’s voice aint winning too many votes and the other two are too young so its either Milne or a first termer.
It is unfortunate that Christine Milne is often confused with Glenn Milne. People think they are a husband and wife duo.
The Greens have a really good member in SA called Mark Parnell. I’d like to see him move into the Federal Senate.
Interesting to note, via Google News, the different emphasis given to the coverage of business confidence by certain media’s headline writers.
[Business confidence on the up
Brisbane Times – 4 hours ago
http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/business-confidence-on-the-up-20090414-a5e1.html%5D
[Australian Business Confidence Gains for Second Month
Bloomberg – 4 hours ago
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=arVi8_boarkk&refer=australia%5D
… then there’s this:
[Business confidence still weak, survey shows
ABC Online – 4 hours ago
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/14/2542299.htm?section=business%5D
Good old ABC!
Ruddnet 100 Turnnet 0
Skynooos has done a poll dancing on the Ruddnet:
Yes yes yes: 54%
No: 24%
Maybe: 21%
Just checked the Sky News homepage. There’s the story about QANTAS cutting jobs accompanied by a picture of Julia Gillard. I don’t understand. Why is SHE