Keeping it holy

… with some God-fearing Good Friday news nuggets to tide you over until the pubs re-open.

• Senate polls have consistently proved themselves to be pointless endeavours, but let the record note that Roy Morgan has produced one from their last three months of surveys. This might be of at least some use if Morgan gave South Australian respondents a chance to indicate support for Nick Xenophon, but they presumably don’t because he is not up for re-election next time (unless there’s a double dissolution of course). Nonetheless, South Australia shows an “others” result of 19.5 per cent compared with 8 per cent nationally.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected three candidates for the Hobart electorate of Denison for next year’s state election, after earlier delaying the process due to concerns about a “lack of high-profile talent”. The nominees are 70-year-old incumbent Michael Hodgman; lawyer Elise Archer, who polled a solid 3.2 per cent at the 2006 election; and Matt Stevenson, state president of the Young Liberals. No sign of contentious Hobart alderman Marti Zucco, but two positions remain to be filled.

• Yesterday’s Crikey Daily Mail had a piece by Malcolm Mackerras noting the looming by-election in New Zealand for Helen Clark’s seat of Mount Albert, and the absurdity of such a thing in a supposedly proportional representation system. If it loses, Labour will be deprived of one of the seats entitled to it by its national vote share at last November’s election. New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system is modelled on Germany’s, but departs from it in that vacated constituency seats in Germany are filled by unelected candidates from the party’s national lists – which New Zealand was obviously loath to do as it would randomly match members to electorates with which they had no connection.

• Mackerras also notes that the May 12 election in the Canadian province of British Columbia will be held in conjunction with a second referendum seeking to replace its first-past-the-post single-member constituency system with “BC-STV” (British Columbia-Single Transferable Vote). I take this to be identical in every respect to Hare-Clark as it operates in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (complete with Robson rotation and optional preferential voting), except the number of members per region will range from two to seven. A referendum was also held at the previous election in 2005, but it received 57.7 per cent support while requiring 60 per cent to be binding. Get funky with the official website of British Columbians for BC-STV.

UPDATE (11/4/09): The West Australian carries a second Westpoll survey of 400 respondents on the May 16 daylight saving referendum, showing 47 per cent supporting and 51 per cent opposed compared with 42 per cent and 57 per cent at the poll last month. The West’s report says this means “community support for daylight saving has climbed steadily over the last month”, but I don’t need to tell you all what a load of bollocks that is. Taken together, the surveys suggest the proposal is most likely headed for defeat by the same narrow-ish margins as in 1975, 1984 and 1992.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,465 comments on “Keeping it holy”

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  1. [A referendum was also held at the previous election in 2005, but it received 57.7 per cent support while requiring 60 per cent to be binding. Get funky with the official website of British Columbians for BC-STV.]

    For something to receive that level of support but fall short of the required vote to become binding isn’t very democratic imho…

  2. [New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system is modelled on Germany’s, but departs from it in that vacated constituency seats in Germany are filled by unelected candidates from the party’s national lists – which New Zealand was obviously loath to do as it would randomly match members to electorates with which they had no connection.]

    A couple of variations on the proportional rep theme alluded to there, but it revives the dream of national PR here in the Reps. How refreshing and vibrant it would be campared with the dead relic of our rightist christian democrat party system with 2 variations on the same theme fighting for the same constituency. It’s a form of political tyranny. So many people, such as left of centre non-christians for example, permanently disenfranchised here these days. (And if any big party status quo defenders invoke the old chestnut of Italy in relation to PR, I’ll scream 🙂 )

    PR should certainly be forced onto the agenda, as difficult as it would be for modern political species to achieve it against the opposition of the 2 great big dinosaur parties.

  3. I don’t support PR in the lower house. I think Australia has a great system. I like two-party stability in the lower house. Keep PR for the upper house. Just remember what governance is like in PR lower houses. Look at Israel. *shudder*

  7. Israeli politics would not be stable if they had single member electorates because many of the people of the various political groups live in areas where a lot of like minded people live e.g. most Arab-Israelis live in areas where the people are mostly Arab-Israeli and the people in the settlements would tend to vote for the pro-settlement parties.

  8. Diog

    re virtual doctor consultations. I kind of have them already with my rheumatologist, we have “telephone consultations” if I need a prescription he posts it to me, if I have questions I email him.

    The only time I physically see him is to discuss “bone scans” which I have to collect from the gamma camera mob and take to him.

    I would never consider a vitual consultation with my GP but for specialists monitoring chronic disease it is a great idea. RuddNETT will make it easier.

  10. I had some Xrays taken yesterday which were handed to me as a CD to then hand to my medical practicioner. I imagine this is but a first step on the way of what will openup with the coming of the Ruddnet.

  11. For the geeky among us

    [Broadband via electrical wires is certainly an encouraging idea since nearly every home in the world is served by power lines. What’s more, most residences are threaded with electrical wires terminating in multiple outlets in almost every room. So homeowners can get a high-speed Net connection — up to 3 megabits per second — just by plugging a special modem into any outlet. That matches cable modem speeds and outpaces most DSL offerings.]
    http://www.internetworldstats.com/articles/art072.htm

    and one of the products out there

    [Now you can harness the power of home or office electrical wiring, already installed to build an instant LAN Computer Network. Many (Western) homes have as many as 40 electrical outlets. So…now imagine any of those plugs also serving as an internet access point. Minimum required=1 pair. Sorry, this technology is for buildings operating dedicated circuits for Phase 1/2 electricity, not phase 3.]

    http://www.thehightechstore.com/electricinternet.html

  12. ruawake

    With the Ruddnet, the bone scans could be sent to the rheumatologist and you might avoid a few more visits. I must say that you have a better working relationship with your doctors than most people do. Medicine would work a whole lot better for everyone if we had more patients like you and more doctors like yours. Unfortunately, the system is set to work at “lowest common denominator” level, which is expensive, inefficient and doesn’t deliver good outcomes.

  13. [Broadband via electrical wires is certainly an encouraging idea since nearly every home in the world is served by power lines. What’s more, most residences are threaded with electrical wires terminating in multiple outlets in almost every room. So homeowners can get a high-speed Net connection — up to 3 megabits per second — just by plugging a special modem into any outlet. That matches cable modem speeds and outpaces most DSL offerings.]

    But unfortunately Amateur Radio operators don’t like it because of the interference in causes to their transmissions.

    http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~vk5vka/stopbpl.htm

  14. No 8

    The vehicle will be there, but it would be up to the incompetent Labor state governments to ensure that the appropriate systems are in place to facilitate these virtual consultations.

  15. [But unfortunately Amateur Radio operators don’t like it because of the interference in causes to their transmissions.]

    Frank
    I think the “inhouse application is tres exciting.

    BTW I understand some euro countries (sweden esp) are trialling one way feeds down the power lines.

    ie foxtel delivered via your powerline as ooposed to a seperate cable/satellite

  16. Those ‘incompetent’ state Labor governments just keep on being re-elected. Says a lot about the incompetence of the Liberal oppositions don’t you think?

  19. bob –
    [I like two-party stability in the lower house.]

    Fair enough, lucky for you that you like the ‘stability’ of more of the same centrist policies decade after decade, regardless of who is in power – and support the cosy bi-partisan approach to, say, education, the environment, and social policy we have been enduring under both parties for 25 years. Me, I’d rather argue for something better. The alternative is just to give up and take more medication.

    I’d also like to see PR in the states, where there is far too much ‘stability’. When you look at the NSW government over the past 10 years and at Her Majesty’s loyal opposition, you’d have to agree that ‘stability’ has got completely out of hand, even worse than it has Federally.

    If the NSW parliamentary government is better than a PR system, then I’m indeed a ratbag, GG. 🙂

  20. GP

    The relationship I have with my rheumatologist has nothing to do with the state govt. He runs his own business “Coast Joint Care”. The only Govt. he deals with is Federal.

    He is the only place I go to (and I consume a lot of health care) that will rebate the medicare “refund” directly to my bank account via eftpos.

    Plus the phone consulatations are at no charge – guess he can do it when his waiting list is 3 months. 🙂

  21. GP –
    [The best argument against PR is Italy.]

    Oh dear, you’ve fallen into the old trap. The horror – Italy… and more horror – Israel.

    However, of the 36 nations with more than 2 million people that aren’t human rights messes, 30 of them have a PR system. Italy and Israel are the exceptions.

    Pakistan and India are unstable examples among we non-PR voting nations. So it seems stability of government isn’t dependent on whether the voting system is first past the post, preferential, or PR, but rather on cultural, ethnic, and social factors. I think in Aus we’d be more likely to fall into the category of the 30 successful larger PR states, such as Germany and NZ, don’t you?

  22. Yes, somehow when opponents of PR refer us to international examples it’s the same tired old process.

    Perhaps those same opponents here could enlighten us about how the PR system in the Netherlands has resulted in systemic representative failures in that country.

  23. The Nazis got 37.8% at there highest at a fair election. At the last UK election Labour got 35.3%. The problem in Germany was severe economic problems combined with a lack of support for democracy not PR. The Nazis would not have been able to get the powers to end democracy they had without the support of other parties under the Weimar system but under the British system they would probably been able to do it on their own.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_election,_July_1932

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005

  25. JV,

    The Greens are simply a cult with illusions of grandeur that they will one day rule the earth. Greens love to use nebulus words like “better” and “socially progressive” without any clear definition of what they actually mean. Political expediency dictates that they deride the current system because it actually represents the majority of the electorate.

    Unfortunately, for the Greens, the current system works for most Australians. So, just repeating your Omm mantra of alleged superiority neither makes it true nor inevitable.

    At the core, Greens want to exercise power without earning the right to do so.

    The NSW Government may or not have problems. But, I don’t relate any of that to the electoral process.

  26. If New South Wales still has PR (evil PR scrapping Lang) then the ALP would need support to govern and that would probably mean the Greens who would demand policy changes which would improve the governance and policy.

  27. JV

    To get PR in Australia means a majority of people in the majority states supporting it. Which basically means that the dinosaur parties you deride would need to support the change.

    Do you think this can happen?

  28. Let us not forget the strife-torn police state that is Tasmania.

    [If New South Wales still has PR (evil PR scrapping Lang) then the ALP would need support to govern and that would probably mean the Greens who would demand policy changes which would improve the governance and policy.]

    Is there a point where district magnitude gets so low we don’t qualify it as PR? If memory serves, the PR that Lang scrapped had three members per district. Would such a system produce non-majority government any more than at present?

  29. [which would improve the governance and policy.]
    Why is it that ‘the Greens’ involvement equals ‘improvement’? It may but not just as a matter of course.

  30. Hi ruawake,

    Actually, the electoral system is governed by legislation, not the Constitution. The point remains the same – the major parties would have to change the legislation.

  32. A system of multi-member electorates with Hare-Clark is all that is needed. The mainland states would be subdivided and Tasmania and the Territories would be each be one electorate. Achievable in Australia. Tasmania used Hare-Clark in 1901 for its seats in the 1st Commonwealth Parliament.

  34. The thing about Nazi germany was that it a small radical party an outlet and legitimacy to advance their cause. Countries other than italy and israel have problems. The rise of the far right in Austria. If i recall correct Switerland has never had a formal change of government as the same grand coalition has ruled the country since the end of ww2.

    Austria is a good comparrison with the rise of the far right. In Australia a degree of consensus was reached between the main parties to squeez One Nation of air and over time it just went away. In Austria on a federal level the far right parties have been able to build momentum.

  35. Why not? After all, there was no referendum for the introduction of compulsory voting or the preferential system, let alone proposed amendments to the Electoral Act such as those which denied citizens in prison the right to vote.

  37. Is there any evidence to suggest that Hare Clark is any better than any other system? What are the arguments for it?
    If Tasmania tried it and then ditched it, surely it was because it wasn’t working?
    As for more elected Greens = better governance, I’m not sure of that. It’s much the same as the mantra that independents are somehow ‘better’ than someone representing the majors – it depends on the independent – thus, Andren good, Fielding bad; WA Greens having balance of power in the Senate bad, Bob Brown’s Greens OK so far.
    Many people thought that the Democrats having bop in the Senate was a good thing and it was, until young Meg came along.

  39. I don’t understand the “stability” argument either. Sure in a *democracy* the point of parliament is not to be “stable” but to be representative. In 2009 does a single member system ensure better representation of people’s views and what they want than a PR system?

  41. Tasmania no longer uses Hare-Clark for federal elections because the Commonwealth took over federal elections in 1902. Tasmania has used Hare-Clark for House of Assembly election continuously since 1906.

  44. GG,
    [The NSW Government may or not have problems. But, I don’t relate any of that to the electoral process.]

    It’s not just the current government, it’s the one single big party alternative that is the problem, particularly when it has similar values and talent and is also consistenly a crock. What do you turn to in this system – independents or despair?
    There will be a surge in the independents’ vote next NSW election, but that doesn’t generally translate into members in parliament and achieve what is required. It did once in the early 90’s by luck, when 3 independents had the balance of power in the assembly. It was the best period of genuine open political debate in the history of NSW as far I remember it. PR could offer that most of the time.

    I don’t know why you wish to invoke the Greens in particular, but they would be one party of many, including groups on the right. Ther major parties would be sure to break up into at least their current major factions but probably further eventually. Surely that would be preferable to the current party situations of seething hatred within the parties, and the result of factional warriors and hacks floating to the surface as representatives and ministers like Conroy and Co, David Clark, Alex Hawke, Joe Tripodi, Ms Keneally etc etc .

    What a great event the break up of the tired useless major parties would be, as would the sight of genuine coalitions being formed, parliament by parliament. The Greens would have to propose specific and workable policies like everyone else, or suffer the consequences of failure at the ballot box if they were part of the government.
    You know it makes sense.

    The problem is the vested interests in and around the major parties who do not have an objective view, but a strong emotional attachment to the parties of the past, which they don’t realise are gone forever (What light on what f ‘n hill?). Fortunately their signficance is diminishing in the public arena. Time for big changes.

  45. Zoomster:

    Depends how you define Hare-Clark. A lot of people take it to mean the Tasmanian/ACT system, which differs from Victoria’s in that there are rotating ballot papers, so you don’t get the party effectively dictating the order in which their own candidates are elected. They are otherwise substantially the same – both members of the happy family of PR-STV systems which British Columbia might soon be joining.

  46. Single member electorates give disproportionate power to parties with geographical areas in which they are strong and voters in areas where there are parties of approximately equal support.

  47. [Correct, Oz – although they did cut the number of seats per region from seven to five to make it less proportional (in other words, to stiff the Greens).]

    Didn’t this happen when the Tassie Greens were in a “coalition” with Labor? Thus consigning themselves to being stiffed?

  48. Remember however that Australia started off its Federal parliamentary life with only one ‘real’ party (Labor). Everyone else was effectively an independent. We had elections on an almost constant basis.
    Our party system evolved from that chaos. I assume it did so because the situation was simply unworkable.

  50. [Didn’t this happen when the Tassie Greens were in a “coalition” with Labor? Thus consigning themselves to being stiffed?]

    I don’t think The Greens voted it for it. I think Labor and Liberal did a deal because neither of them wanted to have to work with the ferals. Which, if you think about it, makes a lot of sense given they’re far closer in terms of policy than The Greens.

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