Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 56-44. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up four points to 65 per cent, and Malcolm Turnbull’s is down one to 21 per cent. More to follow.

Also today was the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which has the Labor lead widening from 58-42 to 60-40. Also featured: “how important are the following issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?” which party do you think best at handling them; the global financial crisis; climate change; and a broad-brush question on “independent Senators and government legislation”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,740 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  3. HSO 1501, this stuff is alright BUT you have to bleep out some bad words or certain body parts when a movie is being rebroadcast on network TV. Priorities, they are really messed up 🙁

    …… I don’t even think that the NSW right, arguably the looniest, most messed up of the various Lib parties at state level in Oz, could come up with rubbish like this in the first place and then have enough support to get it passed in the second place …..

  4. [The first one, Is the 2nd one “There’s only one Tony Lockett”?
    I couldn’t find it either, seems to have been removed?]

    Yep, the second clip is the original song which James Freud adapted for “One Tony Lockett”

  5. Just checking some of the previous comments, you guys have reminded me why I hated Howard so much.

    Now that that other Texan is history, I’m glad that Rudd said he didn’t know what the G20 was.

  6. If Defence investigations show from its internal best efforts that there was no spying by anyone on the Minister and that no information came from anyone in Defence it still has to follow through on the allegation by then dragging in the journalist for questioning.

    Someone has published information saying it came from the military and implying there was spying on a Minister. A couple of high order criminal offences in that under military law I would imagine. Illegal spying and leaking of military intelligence.

    I am wondering if there is law about receiving military intelligence and of publishing military intelligence. I am sure there would be. The military would have the right I imagine to question the journalist and his contacts and the journalist I doubt in this type crime would have the right to try and protect his sources. I am assuming they could be charged if they refused. And charged if it turned out to be true.

    Would be interesting to know what the military and other law is on this.

  8. As a former journo, Thomas, I reckon half the “protected sources” defences are hiding the fact that the journalist *did* make it up.

  9. [As a former journo, Thomas, I reckon half the “protected sources” defences are hiding the fact that the journalist *did* make it up.]

    And write headlines like:

    [“Boys in blue chase blacks in white across greens”. ]

    Ozy knows where I got that from 🙂

  11. My non political wife made me laugh as we were driving home tonight. I mentioned Turnbull and the Chinese. Well she just went off.

    She said when he comes on TV she straight away doesn’t like him and, that is before he opens his mouth. And she cant stand the way he talks. She hates him but has no real idea of his politics except that he seems to be against everything. She then went on about him complaining about what people are doing now saying it is probably the same things he did himself earlier.

    I get the feeling that Turnbull has that instant negative impression on some people. Must be those years slumming it up in Valcluse that gave him that toffy pompous look. When he talks, well…it just reinforces the appearance.

  12. Folk here might remember that I was critical of the North-South pipeline in this blog several hundred strings ago.

    My view was that solving Melbourne’s water problems should not involve putting extra stress on the Murray Darling Basin. It was then in critical stress. It is now worse. If Autumn and Winter rains fail this year, the Basin will be down to drinking water next irrigation season. Inter alia, it would mean the end of large swathes of irrigated perenniels in the foodbowl. [Oranges, cherries, almonds, olives, peaches, pears, and (sob) vines.] It would also play merry hell with the economics of future irrigation-related investment and will have profound economic and social consequences. Not to mention yet another significant decrease in our biodiversity.

    MDBA Drought report at:

    http://www.mdba.gov.au/system/files/DroughtUpdate_February2009.pdf

    These issues are going to get a breath of life as one of the reports that provided input into Government decision has now seen the light of day, thanks to the Age.

    The Report seems to me to be a bit all over the shop and is as likely to add confusion to the issues as anything else. But there is another issue. Why, in a democracy, do Governments have the gall to hide reports that taxpayers have paid for? Shouldn’t the information be made generally available so that public debate can be improved?

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/water-projects-not-needed-20090328-9ev6.html?page=2

    Victorian folk with an interest in having a look at how much water is in their particular storage system can find this at:

    http://www.ourwater.vic.gov.au/monitoring/monthly/storage_levels/table_of_storage_levels

    WARNING: This site contains information that may cause distress.

  13. Turnbull is a wannabe Churchill, with all his stentorial pretentiousness but none of his endearing wit and self deprecation.

    Turnbull presents as a self opinionated, averagely intelligent, over ambitious political journeyman, whose intellect and mental ability is greatly over stated by his own perception of it.

    He feels he is better than everybody else but does not have the discipline to hide his indulgence. He is an overbearing, illdisciplined, anorexic Billy Bunter, with all his vices but none of his qualities or excuses.

    He’s the type who’ll become Prime Minister when Hell freezes over, but he has the ego to think he can build an ice machine to do the job.

  15. [I am wondering if there is law about receiving military intelligence and of publishing military intelligence. ]

    Yes, but the information would have to be protected. This doesn’t look like it is – it looks like someone has gone into Fitz’s computers without authorisation. Now that might be illegal, but publishing it would not be as it does not reveal any national security issues other than the DoD is a rabble. (though don’t quote me, I am not completely across the legislation on it). The journos can get in trouble if the info is actually national security in confidence (if that is a term) or cabinet in confidence etc.

    But obviously we see cabinet in confidence stuff leaked quite often. From memory, the courts have to establish that the journo knew what they were publishing was cabinet in confidence. Which is actually hard to establish because its not like any journo is going to send an email saying “Now just to check, this document is cabinet in confidence?”

    Generally how the Govt reacts depends on the Journo invovled – high profile ones like Laurie Oakes will get a call from the AFP (like he did last year); he tells them to bugger off and they do. No Govt want Laurie Oakes on Channel 9 telling the country all his computers have been confiscated etc. A very bad look. In the case of lesser lights (often print journos) they might go the full search.

  22. Boerwar – given that sufficient rain has failed to fall what then is the solution? Let’s assume sufficient rain will continue to fail to fall for many years then what is the long term solutuion? To me anything that makes “new” water makes sense.
    [The Report seems to me to be a bit all over the shop and is as likely to add confusion to the issues as anything else. But there is another issue. Why, in a democracy, do Governments have the gall to hide reports that taxpayers have paid for? Shouldn’t the information be made generally available so that public debate can be improved?]
    Let me interpret this statement. The report is really not very good in many ways so let’s turn it into another issue to hit the government over the head with.

  23. juliem, to be honest I only watched the interview but am taping the rest of the program for later viewing. However, I did notice Annabelle and George M are there to add balance. Probably worth a look I’d say.

  24. juliem – The interview with Julia was 90% about JF and the rest to do with the government’s view on pay rises.

  25. thanks for the tip Gary 🙂 ….. I’ll return the favor – check out Paul Daley on The Age’s website, opinion section 😉

  26. If Bolt is representing the right wing, then the yellow hordes have never gone away. they are still charging down to down under:

    Bolt’s “China is a threat to our values”, China = The Muslim Terrorists

    Bolt’s “Rudd doesn’t want to be seen as the Manchurian’s Candidate”, Rudd = China’s puppet.

    It looks like nothing has changed since the gold field days of Bendigo in the 1800’s.

    The bright spark of this morning Insiders has been St. Gillard. Butch Cassidy threw everything at her, including the kitchen sink and the bathtub. She flicked him off like the flaming moth. She is our PM in waiting. It must have sent shiver down the spine of the oppositions and its cronies.

  27. Bolt was disgusting as usual, but whilst the first half the program was about Fitzgibbon the rest was about Rudd going overseas.

    Worth watching.

  28. Also, interview with a former head of the DoD who says that it’s very unlikely Defence would have any information on Fitzgibbon or Ms. Liu because all the investigation stuff and spying is done by the AFP and ASIO.

  29. [Bolt was disgusting as usual]

    No I think he was worse than usual – he basically said China is our enemy.

    It was 1950s stuff. George M was pretty pissed with the him. It was so obviously blind prejudice and dog whistling that I had trouble keeping down my Light’n’Tasty.

  30. Grog, Oz, Finnigans,

    Your comments really aren’t adequate enough for the serious nature of the issue.

    Bolt made some important points:

    how close do we want to be to a communist/totalitarian state with human rights issues up the wazoo
    Why is Australia’s PM meeting the Chinese Minister for Propoganda and Ideology before starting a workd trip to lobby leaders to include China in financial forums

  32. [how close do we want to be to a communist/totalitarian state with human rights issues up the wazoo]

    The fact is, China is the biggest power in our region and soon will be the biggest power in the world (if it already isn’t). It’s our second biggest trading partner.

    I don’t condone any human rights abuses by China, or by anyone else, but fear mongering about “Manchurian candidates” when all this government is doing is accepting the reality of the situation and engaging with a key nation, something the previous government and Malcolm Turnbull would do as well, is ridiculous.

  33. [Bolt made some important points:
    how close do we want to be to a communist/totalitarian state with human rights issues up the wazoo]

    Glad to see the Bolt kool-aid is still being drunk.

    Point out one thing Rudd has done with respect to China that is not in Australia’s interests. Point to one piece of EVIDENCE that shows Rudd or the Govt is under the thumb of China.

    C’mon. just one.

    If all you’ve got is “perception” you got nothing, and you’re just trying the Hanson line with a different shade of spin.

  35. [Will you look at these Libs cavorting with Chinese spies]

    Oh my God… questions need to be asked. I’m not suggesting anything is wrong, it’s just the perception. It’s a pattern of behaviour. Didn’t Howard know that China is a totalitarian regime.

    Shocking. So shocking.
    😀

    Let’s call a spade a spade – the Libs and Bolt are feeding on a hope that Australians are racist.

    The great thing about it is, as George M pointed out this morning, forget about winning back Bennelong.

  36. [The bright spark of this morning Insiders has been St. Gillard. Butch Cassidy threw everything at her, including the kitchen sink and the bathtub. She flicked him off like the flaming moth. She is our PM in waiting. It must have sent shiver down the spine of the oppositions and its cronies]

    Yep she was good. Bolt of course acknowledges it and then tries to sow seeds of discord as though all it will take is for Gillard to say I want the job and it’ll be hers.

    Pathetic really. Rudd is untouchable in the ALP causus at the moment and Julia won’t get a look in unless Rudd goes well below 50% pref PM.

    And that is a long way away.

  37. The Libs might see their political donations from rich Chinese businessmen dry up too. [But the Liberal Party has also long accepted donations from Chinese-born business figures.
    These have included Dr Chau Chak Wing who gave $1 million to the Coalition and almost $500,000 to the ALP in the last financial year.]
    This should get a mention too.
    [Legislation aimed at banning foreign donations was voted down in the Federal Parliament by the Coalition and Independent Senator Steve Fielding only last month.]
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25255895-421,00.html

  38. [Your comments really aren’t adequate enough for the serious nature of the issue.]

    you can only have serious discussion and debate if the other side is coming from a rational, informed, sensible and analytical perspectives. Bolt and his likes are none of this when come to China. it was purely based century old suspicion and prejudicial view of China, its history and people. In some way, it’s no different with the treatment of Indonesia.

  39. My big fear is that Australia will get into bed with a country that gets us involved in a war that has no reason for being fought and stops the proper attention being given to the war in Afghanistan.

    I mean just imagine doing something that diverts billions of dollars and thousands of troops away from Afghanistan and in the process does nothing to reduce the terrorist threat, and ensures that the war in Afghanistan becomes almost unwinnable.

    Geez, I hope that never happens.

  40. [Julia won’t get a look in unless Rudd goes well below 50% pref PM.]

    Julia’s in no hurry. She knows it’s a relay race – Kev has the baton at the moment. He’ll pass it to Julia in 4 years time. Then it’ll be Julia’s turn to “run Julia Run!” for 6 years. Then she’ll pass the baton on to Bill. Then it’ll be Bill’s turn to “run Bill run!” for 6 years. Then he’ll pass the baton on etc etc…

  42. More evidence of why you wouldn’t wish being Defence Ministe ron your worst enemy:
    [A military analyst has condemned the Defence Department’s troubled $1 billion upgrade of its armoured troop carriers, saying the vehicles are unusable.
    An Auditor-General’s report on the army’s M113s reveals that up to 100 of the heavy vehicles may not be ready by the project’s deadline of December next year.

    But the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s operations and capability director, Andrew Davies, says the armoured transports, which have been in service for more than 35 years, are too slow and too vulnerable to roadside bombs for Australia’s military needs
    …
    The upgrade will improve the M113s’ armour and engines, and add extra fuel tanks and guns.

    But the project has been beset by delays since it was announced seven years ago.]
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/upgraded-armoured-carriers-unusable/1472159.aspx

  43. [Julia’s in no hurry. She knows it’s a relay race – Kev has the baton at the moment. He’ll pass it to Julia in 4 years time]

    I think you might be right – Kev would have seen Beattie, and would be wanting to do the same. 4 years though? I reckon 5-6 – win 3 elections, then go out a winner.

    (and yeah a lot a water needs to go under the bridge before that can happen – not suggesting it’s a certainty)

  44. I think one of the pivotal Q’s in this debate is
    are we effectively the worlds largest aircraft carrier/mining pit/food bowl???
    and/or
    can we go down the path of NZ and be Nuclear free???

  47. I’m predicting the Afghanistan War will end up as unpopular as the Iraq War. The Allies can’t do a “cut and run” or a “surge”. My strategy would be a “surge and run”. Pour resources in to get a semblance of stability so it looks like you’re winning and then get the hell out.

  48. Diogenes:

    You know what will happen to people if the Taliban return to power so why the *bleep* are you proposing a strategy that will achieve just that?

  49. [are we effectively the worlds largest aircraft carrier/mining pit/food bowl???]

    I’m not surprised that Gusface is opposed to the US alliance, but I am surprised to learn that he is also opposed to international trade. Perhaps he should join One Nation if they’re still around.

    [can we go down the path of NZ and be Nuclear free???]

    New Zealand is an international parasite, relying on the US and Australia for protection while making no contribution to the mutual defence. I trust Australia will never go down that path. It certainly won’t under this government.

  50. [I think one of the pivotal Q’s in this debate is
    are we effectively the worlds largest aircraft carrier/mining pit/food bowl???
    and/or
    can we go down the path of NZ and be Nuclear free???]

    Interesting. There’s a lot of talk about Australia being a leading “middle power” (bit of an oxymoron). While there’s obvious benefits to being in that position and perhaps influencing other nations in certain ways, the downsides have to weighed up. If the cost of being an “influential middle-power” include saying “How high” whenever the US or China says “Jump” and this means the loss of lives in wars that have little to do with us, then I don’t think it’s worth it.

    New Zealand is interesting because they condemned the invasion of Iraq, but after a UN resolution was passed they sent engineers to help rebuild. They didn’t have to bend over for the US/”coalition of the willing” to be respected. Look at Helen Clarke, she managed to maintain New Zealand’s respect and credibility as an independent nation and she’s now the third ranking member of the UN.

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