Westpoll: 57-43 to Liberal in WA

The West Australian’s latest Westpoll survey of state voting intention gives the Barnett government its best result yet: a two-party lead up from 56-44 to 57-43 and primary votes of 49 per cent for the Liberals, 4 per cent for the Nationals, 34 per cent for Labor and 7 per cent for the Greens. Colin Barnett’s preferred premier rating is down a point to 56 per cent and Eric Ripper’s is steady on 13 per cent. Saturday’s West carried results from the same survey which suggest the daylight saving proposal will be heavily defeated at the referendum on May 16. The poll showed 57 per cent opposition and 42 per cent support for daylight saving ending in late March, as proposed. Alternative ending dates in late February and late January were also opposed, by 52-46 and 55-43 respectively. Samples for Westpoll surveys are around 400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

68 comments on “Westpoll: 57-43 to Liberal in WA”

Comments Page 1 of 2
1 2

  1. Hmm, I wonder how the figures will stack up once the full extent of the 3% Public Sector Cuts are known ? Mind you the Govt have been very quiet of late andour media haven’t exposed any major scandals yet.

  4. [This is like the great days of the Court era.]

    Whose govt was inept.

    Westpoll is ALWAYS skewed to the Libs. And it won’t last for long, the honeymoon is almost over, the cracks are already appearing in the facade.
    When they bump electricity prices by 50%, amalgamate a few councils by decree, cut services and renege on their promises to the Nats & The Bush these figures will go out the window faster than Liberal Party code of conduct.

    Remember they’re one by-election and a handful of votes from opposition.

  7. I think Westpoll is skewed too, PHK, but sadly I think the election was a game-changer for the Libs, minority govt or not.

    There’s been a history in recent times of first-term state govts scraping in and getting a whopping majority in the second term. Admittedly these were Labor state govts, and during happy economic times. Nevertheless the capacity is there. This is Perth we are talking about after all.

  9. Bree: shut yer gob.

    Local council amalgamations will be interesting… John Castrilli wants them to volunteer to be merged or else, but the Nats will get in the way of that, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Liz Constable does too (western suburbs… they’ll be leaning on Barnett and whoever beat Sue Walker too). There’s a few articles in the Subiaco Post with the western suburbs view (page 5, turn to page 27, more on page 70… gah, what a horrible layout). Apparently there’s a ‘Dadour amendment’ (named after a Liberal MP for Subiaco in the 80’s) which says if the govt wants to merge local councils, then 100 ratepayers signing a petition forces a poll on it, which then needs 50% turnout and 50% of the vote to pass. Only way around that is to change the law, but the ALP say they won’t and the Nats obviously won’t, so it looks pretty stuffed if residents don’t agree with mergers.

  10. What’s laughable about the proposed mergers is that Bree’s hero Richard Court split the Perth City Council into four entities simply to depose Jack Marx, a committed commie, from his position of deputy Mayor of the coulcil. The Mayor at the time was Reg “toecutter” Withers, former Fraser govt minister and celebrated razorganger.
    His son Simon is now Mayor of Cambridge, one of the offshoot entities.
    There WAS a vote on the split but it failed to carry for the reasons mentioned by BoP above.
    So, here’s a proposal for you.
    Wouldn’t the scenario of these councils choosing to amalgamate make the libs look as stupid as they always were?
    That side of politics are, and have always been, as nutty as fruitcakes. We’ve always known over here that the whole show’s run from the Weld club.

  13. To be honest, I think Australia as a whole should get rid of local government. Do we really need councils? We only need state and federal governments. Australian taxpayers will save BILLIONS every year without local councils.

  14. Westpoll predicted Carps to be returned on September 6 but most of the betting agencies had Barnett at like $1.20 and Carps at like $4.00.

  15. Oh and Barnett has alienated a lot of pensioners with the Free travel by insisting that it only applies if you use a smartrider.

    [Transport Minister Simon O’Brien said that with the entitlement properly built into the electronic ticketing system, the free travel could be accessed by the normal tag-on/tag-off SmartRider process.

    “Seniors Card holders will be able to use their existing Seniors SmartRider,” Mr O’Brien said. “Aged and disability pensioners will need to apply to have their existing concession SmartRider reprogrammed or get a new SmartRider if they do not already have one.”

    Mr O’Brien said that from March16, aged pensioners and disability support pensioners could apply for their SmartRider from authorised Retail Sales Outlets, Transperth InfoCentres or by phoning the Transperth InfoLine on 13 62 13 for an application form.]

    http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Results.aspx?ItemID=131466

  16. [57% support the Libs and 57% oppose DST – what does that tell you?]

    Actually I oppose DST as well and I’m an ALP Man 🙂

  17. [ Oh and Barnett has alienated a lot of pensioners with the Free travel by insisting that it only applies if you use a smartrider. ]

    This has been a nuisance for a while, in various forms. If you want to get around the city on the train within the ‘Free Transit Zone’, ie city, Esplanade, McIver, Claisebrook and City West stations, you need to buy a 2 section ticket if you don’t have a Smartrider (or if there’s no credit on it) – can’t get through the fare gates otherwise. Also, student concessions go on the Smartrider instead of as a sticker on the back of your student card as before. Bus drivers actually ask you for your Smartrider even if you’re buying a cash ticket. I’ve always used my Centrelink low income health card when the Smartrider runs out, but students who work part-time and are above that card’s threshold wouldn’t be able to get a concession, which previously they could. Considering concession tickets are only about 40% of standard, that’s quite an irritant. The Smartrider’s a good system but it does have its bugs.

    Also, I’m a progressive Greens voter and I’m anti-daylight saving. It’s good if you live in the beachside suburbs where the sea breeze comes through early, but not otherwise – too hot. (Note Antony’s blog last month… apparently the 1992 referendum narrowly won in North and South Metro (LC regions) but got 5% less of the vote in East Metro, further from the coast.) One argument I’ve heard a few times is that having more sun will drag Perth ‘kicking and screaming’ out of the dark ages… basically an extra hour of sun will give us the wonderful after-hours culture of Melbourne. Wander down Murray St mall at 7pm if you need to be cured of that view. 😉

  18. [Westpoll predicted Carps to be returned on September 6 but most of the betting agencies had Barnett at like $1.20 and Carps at like $4.00.]

    Other way round, actually. I know whereof I speak here – I might quite a bit of money out of a bet on the Liberals.

  21. [Always?]

    Ok point taken… At least I can admit my failings unlike a Lib…

    The problem with Westpoll is their small sample size and their general lack of detailed information. Your thoughts?

    And who should I bet on in QLD then?

  22. 13, I think that State governments have more important things to do besides minor tasks such as issuing dog licenses. I just had to mail in apps for 2 of those as we’ve moved to this community over the summer and they went to the local council …..

  23. 16, yeah, I knew that wouldn’t get by your eagle eyes 😀 ….. and I knew you were in the anti dst camp before I posted that 😉 …..

    would make a reasonable educated guess though that you are the exception and not the rule 😀 …..

  24. No 15

    Can’t see why that’s such a big deal. Smart ticketing is the future.

    It’s a pity that after 13 years of blubbering on the subject, the NSW Labor government is still no closer to smart ticketing in Sydney.

  25. [Can’t see why that’s such a big deal. Smart ticketing is the future.]

    I agree, but the free travel should’ve been an across the board thing for both cash tickets and Smartriders, especially for those pensioners who are occasional users of public transport and paying $20 to apply for a card when you may only use it a few times a year as well as topping it up with at least $5 worth of fares for the other times the free travel doesn’t apply.

  26. No 25

    Clearly the WA Government is using this as an incentive to get more people onto Smartrider cards. Again, I see no problem with it. Eventually everything will be cashless and the pensioners have to move with the times.

  27. [Clearly the WA Government is using this as an incentive to get more people onto Smartrider cards. Again, I see no problem with it. Eventually everything will be cashless and the pensioners have to move with the times.]

    Well seniors Cards already incorporate the Smartrider, but Disability Support Pensions and Veterans Cards do not.

  29. [I’m still trying to work out your actual complaint.]

    Well currently pensioners have a choice of using a smartrider, or buying a cash ticket – they news free travel doesn’t apply to pensioners who purchase cash tickets, ie only smartrider holders can travel free despite them being a pensioner.

  30. No 29

    So now we’re going in circles again. It’s a good thing that people are being forced to use smartrider.

  31. [So now we’re going in circles again. It’s a good thing that people are being forced to use smartrider.]

    Not to the occasional traveller who likes takes a train or bus trip once or twice a year or avisitor from the Eastern States who qualify for concession travel, but can’t use the free travel component because of the short duration of their stay.

  32. No poll predicted the Liberals would gain Government. And certainly not one Frank Calabrese who was certain Labor would be returned on the back of such smart plans as the “shut the parliament bar” – a real winner there right 🙂

    Ah yes, the 3% cut which i believe was created on the spot by Labor when they realized their promises couldn’t fit into the current budget.

    If they are taking a train or bus trip once a year i’m pretty sure they can afford an extra buck.

  33. I think Costello will do a Barnett. Take over the leadership one day before Rudd calls an election and lead to a surprise victory.

  34. I think we should all remember that the Liberals didn’t win the WA election, they only won 24 seats. They were handed government by Brendon Grylls and the “independents”.

  35. [I think we should all remember that the Liberals didn’t win the WA election, they only won 24 seats. They were handed government by Brendon Grylls and the “independents”.]

    And Barnett is going to find out the hard way with both John Bowler and Janet Woollard threatening to scuttle the Mandatory Jail Sentences for assaulting Public Officers, due to the fact that people could be jailed for trivial matters such as prodding a police officer in the chest and general pushing and shoving.

  38. [Good and bad news: the best next Labor premier of WA feels like going federal (said so herself this time). As much as she’ll be missed here, it’ll be worth it if she takes out that scumbag Randall. It may even happen if WA gets the Rudd swing three years late.]

    Yeah, Lannie would be good in Canberra going up against Julie Bishop, though it would be a loss locally.

  39. If she gets up, going by her record (though unfortunately not her faction – don’t think she has one), she’s a readymade transport minister. Now I hope the Greens get it together and take out Albanese over in Grayndler, just for this – clear the way. 😉

  40. Alannah won’t stand a chance against Randall. The Liberal primary vote is so high at the moment, especially in the suburbs of Perth.

  41. Canning sits on a corrected margin of 4.3% after the redistribution. That hardly puts it in the realm of “won’t stand a chance.”

  42. Maybe “won’t stand a chance” is a bit harsh, but certainly she would have her work cut out, and there are far more attractive seats if she wanted to go federal such as cowan, stirling and swan plus Hasluck is in her neck of the woods too and everyone knows that member is a complete joke.

  43. If she does contest the seat she will have a pretty good chance. The seat includes the urban areas of Armadale and Mandurah. She is highly popular in Armadale (has anyone seen that place lately? It’s now a completely different area!) and Mandurah where they now have a fast connection to the heart of perth.

    Alannah was my favourite Minister in the previous government. Coming from a planning background, she always said the right things and made the right choices outperforming her colleagues. She will be missed if she choses to leave state politics.

    I don’t understand why this new government is so popular. All they’ve done is cut back on capital works, changed the logo and names of departments and are still trying to implement a populist social agenda. Royalties for regions is beginning to look like a splurge on National held seats in the Wheatbelt. Colin Barnett goes around acting as if he is a commentator on everything, even issues outside his discipline of economics. He seems to make decisions on the spot and intuitivly and that is worrying.

    Still I see some hope in Ministers Day and Castrilli. Day will never be like Alannah but he seems to understand the issues and is big on modern thinking. Castrilli could prove to be a good Minister if he gets somewhere with local govt reform. We’ll see.

  45. Bree, you’re an amateur. (I wonder what the GP / Glen take on Don Randall is?)

    I’d say even 4.3% flatters the guy. Labor had all manner of preselection dramas in 2004, which resulted in Randall getting a very big swing towards him; it was marginal before then and tended to be more Labor than not. Then in 2007, the Rudd-slide happened everywhere but here; there were swings to the Libs, although not for Randall. (Speaking of which, what are Steve Irons and Luke Simpkins getting up to?) Not bad considering Labor ran some guy (union hack? I dunno) who shared a name with a used car dealer. If that 6% swing mentioned in a poll a few weeks ago happens here next time, plus a few % for MacTiernan being much better known than anybody else the ALP could throw up, it could end up safer for her than it currently is for Randall.

    Is it common for ministers to come from marginal seats? The one I can think of currently is Lindsay Tanner, but that’s a kinda special case (vs Grn). I think Kim Beazley and Michael Wooldridge had marginal seats once upon a time. Any others?

  46. I think ministers come from marginal seats often enough for there to be a few in every government. Every time a government is defeated there’s a few ministers losing their seats.

  47. Alannah’s better option would be to seek pre-selection in one of Labor’s Perth seats. Labor can use her to replace some of the dead wood MPs.

  48. What’s Carps doing sniping away from the backbench? It’s time for him to go. Nothing but sour grapes. Maybe Labor’s only hope of beating Barnett will be to bring Stephen Smith into state politics.

  49. #45, 46

    From the Howard govt there was Mal Brough (Longman), Gary Hardgrave (Moreton), Jim Lloyd (Robertson)..plus Howard himself of course. All got booted out in 2007. Turnball’s seat is still marginal although he survived, maybe there were one of two others.

  50. [ Alannah’s better option would be to seek pre-selection in one of Labor’s Perth seats. Labor can use her to replace some of the dead wood MPs. ]

    Whaaa? There’s only four Labor MP’s in WA; three were elected in 2007 (won Hasluck, sitting members retired in Brand and Fremantle), and the other one is Stephen Smith. No dead wood there.

Comments Page 1 of 2
1 2

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *