Newspoll: 60-40 to Labor in Victoria

The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey of Victorian state voting intention has Labor blowing out to remarkable leads of 46 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote, and 60-40 on two-party preferred. The Australian reports that “roughly half the poll’s sample of 1142 people was taken before the Black Saturday fires, while the other half was taken during the aftermath of the blazes, when the Premier was regularly in the limelight and is perceived to have performed well”. John Brumby’s approval rating is up seven points to a new high of 52 per cent, while Ted Baillieu’s is down five to 37 per cent. Brumby’s lead as preferred premier is out from 49-27 to 54-22.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

129 comments on “Newspoll: 60-40 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. Probably due to the bushfire response. Brumby’s handling of the situation has been competent and dignified, and so far he hasn’t bought too much into the political debates surrounding the fires (land clearing, climate change, CFA staffing and management, etc).

    I never thought much of Brumby as Opposition Leader and he’s surprised me with how well he’s come across as Premier. Perhaps the grave and serious attitude is something that only works from government, not opposition.

  2. This a dream figure. It’s raining in Melbourne at the moment so this aberration might continue for a while.

    Eventually the Victorian electors will punish the government for the consequences of the financial crisis and for the woes of modern society such as water and power costs, health and traffic congestion. They can hardly join a lynch party to Wall Street.

  3. [Eventually the Victorian electors will punish the government for the consequences of the financial crisis]
    I’m not convinced of this but the rest of the sentence I agee with.
    I think Labor will be returned in Victoria next year however. The opposition is woeful.

  4. I’ld be very suprised if labor didn’t win back Ferntree gully, hastings, kilsyth, narracan and gain bayswater and possibly Morwell from the Nats

  5. #7

    FTG: Nope
    Kilsyth: Nope
    Bayswater: Nope
    Hastings: Double Nope
    Narracan: Possible
    Morwell: With the right candidate, highly possible.

  6. I think that those areas that you noped are all stimulus package receipiant rich< I know its fed but labor comes off favorable. FTG had some fires and not too far from it all, and will benefit from the the governments good response.

  7. #9
    They’re also naturally Liberal-leaning seats which only fell in the 2002 wipeout. The fact they were only marginal Labor after the 2002 rout, and came back to the Liberals despite a big Labor win in 2006, suggests they’re pretty comfortably in the Lib camp.

    Narracan and Morwell are difficult to call- Labor’s problems are both short-term internal infighting and long-term decline of their blue-collar base in the Valley. If the 2006 results were mostly the former we could see a rebound in 2010. But demographics are working against them in these two seats, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them move further away from Labor.

  8. I concur with MDMConnell. Electoral gravity is bound to catch up with the Victorian state Labor govt at the next election, to a greater or extent. It’s the Labor side of the pendulum we ought to be focussing on, not the Coalition side. (This surprising poll notwithstanding.)

  9. Perhaps but FTG, and Bayswater can be won with a strong local candidate. The east-Link stuff will be forgotten. on the labor side i see prahran and forest hill under threat, also Mt. waverley but I think Maxine’s elvation to cabinet has helped her profile and will be hard to beat

  10. Does anyone see Ted Baillieu being premier after the next election? I see them picking up seats but not enough. The fact is some of the infrastructure projects will be well on the way as well as the bushfire recovery projects (that will take some time to resolve). A government seeing to be doing something is better than a carping opposition with few answers to our problems. Unlike NSW, Victorian Labor is seen to be competent and corruption free.

  11. David,

    Electoral gravy I can believe in, but Electoral Gravity?

    There is absolutley no evidence that Labor is under threat unless you believe the rantings of Bolt and a few bored journalists. Liberals are on target for another smashing.

  12. #13

    I think most of those middle-distance eastern seats (Mitcham, Forest Hill, Burwood, Mt Waverley) will behave as a block- if one goes they all go. Or vice versa. They’re pretty similar types of seats. In a way we saw that with the outer eastern seats FTG, Bayswater, Kilsyth and Evelyn being lost in 2002 but recovered in 2006.

  13. you are right MDM but because they are so close it is really where the candidate comes into play. Burwood should never have been ALP but they have Bob who is ubiquitous. It would have to be a super lib candidate to win. Forest hill with kirsty will struggle as she doesn’t do enough locally, and is hardly in the spotlight, Mt waverley always hard but with as minister Maxine has improved her profile a lot, yes mitch am will be a coin toss.
    Prahran again with all the clearways stuff and a hostile local council will prove difficult but Greens do well here and help with preferences.

  14. Burwood is an interesting one. It doesn’t acutally seem to be that much a Liberal seat. Although it contains areas like Burwood and Glen Iris, it also contains parts of the Alamein, Jordanville and Wattle Park public housing estates, plus some marginal middle-class territory like Ashwood. Perhaps Kennett held what was a marginal seat with his personal vote alone, and now he’s gone it’s reverting to type?

  15. Burwood is largely Boorondarra with the highest average earnings per person and the highest rates- you left out Camberwell- the comission areas are being wittled away. Believe me MDM it is more blue blood than any. Won only by a Kennet backlash but held because of Burwood bob. when Bob goes the seat goes.

  16. “The fact is some of the infrastructure projects will be well on the way”

    They’d better be. Under Bracks, Labor’s infrastructure record was very poor. At least Brumby looks alot more ‘can-do’ than Bracks did.

  17. #24

    Kennett held it for God knows how long and I’m assuming someone like him built up a personal vote. I’m not old enough to remember before that. Possibly it covered more Lib-friendly territory? It would make sense with redistributions pushing seats away from the city. But I don’t know.

    I’m well aware of how blue-blood the likes of Glen Iris are. East of Warrigal Road, though, is standard suburbia. Places like Jordanville and Box Hill South are many things but blue-rinse Liberal heartland they ain’t. On these boundaries it looks Lib-leaning, but not rock solid. A good local Labor member, as Bob appears to be, can dig in and hold it for several terms.

  18. [and now he’s gone it’s reverting to type?]
    Doesn’t that mean it is reverting to being a Labor seat, something it never was?
    What did you mean by “reverting to type”?

  19. Turnbull is in the danger of becoming Costello Mark2.

    Costello’s credibility was fatally damaged, self inflicted over his gutless, no ticker, dilly dally to-challenge-or-not-to-challenge over Howie. While Howie was laughing “come and get me” into his face.

    Costello is doing exactly o Turnbull what Howie was doing to him. Costello is laughing “come and get me” into Turnbull’s face. Turnbull must act decisively. i am not too sure what he can do, but he must act. Otherwise he is Costello Mark2.

  20. Reverting is probably the wrong word. I meant on these boundaries, the seat was more marginal than it appeared on paper, and once Kennett left the seat’s “marginality” (if that’s a word) was reflected in the by-election and the 2002/2006 results.

  21. David,

    Labor on 60/40 and you think they are at risk? Liberals will be changing their underwear very frequently imho.

    The electorate votes on issues and the Labor Government in Victoria has been decisive on a number of fronts. They haven’t shirked any controversiy and clearly enjoy the support of most electors.

    Some here have experssed surprise at the surety of Brumby’s leadership during the recent Bushfires. Might pay in future to follow the substantial issues instead of “riffing” off the media.

  22. I wish I could find the report on the 2001 redistribution, which I believe made the seat more winnable for Labor, but the VEC don’t seem to have it on their site.

  23. Burwood, as stated before, was never won by Labor, but through the 1980s it was on small margins (2-3%), and even in the 1990s it never blew out into double figures. At that time it looked marginal enough to be a seat at risk of falling to the ALP if they got enough of a swing to win government, and might have gone closer to doing so at the 1999 general election had the eastern suburbs swing been close to the state (or even city) average.

    Opinions shifted very quickly in middle-class Melbourne suburbia in 1999 once the Kennett bubble of invincibility was pricked; at the Frankston East by-election I worked at a booth in the one pocket of the electorate that could have been transplanted from, say, Blackburn, and the swing there was 15% (compared to 8% in the electorate as a whole). There are plenty of other eastern-suburbs seats that didn’t shift much in 1999 but then swung massively in 2002.

    I expect that Burwood is now destined to be a seat normally held by whoever holds government, as much because of the decreasing link between social class and voting behaviour over the last 20 years as because of any great demographic changes in the seat itself.

  24. I owned a business in the area for 10 years, i now work in the area 4 years+, i know this area well and I stand by my comments. Bob goes the seat goes. Lets hope he’s got a few more terms in him

  25. [Burwood, as stated before, was never won by Labor, but through the 1980s it was on small margins (2-3%)]
    Can you supply the link to this information please?

  26. Baillieu is a goner based on these figures bring out the next lamb to the slaughter, god you are pathetic stupid Vic Libs…

  27. #39 – going from memory. Adam Carr’s site only goes back to 1992, but the swing figure for 1992 implies a margin going into that election (which may have been redistribution-influenced) of 1.5%.

  28. GG who cares we wont win anyway, i couldnt give a toss.
    Those clowns dont deserve to be in power, neither do Labor but they’re already in power.

    Labour 1999-2014…what a disgrace…those at HQ should hang their heads in shame!

  29. In FTG Libs won by only 30 votes. The only booths that the libs won were Lysterfield, park ridge and Kewoo. i think they were all fire areas. Chalk up a Lab gain for that one.
    Mudler would do worse than Baileau- I think kennet will throw his hat back in the ring after 2010

  30. 43 – I’ll give you one thing Glen, you are a realist. The Vic Libs need to get their act into gear. They require new blood badly and I’m not just saying this based on this poll. Anyone living here can see it for themselves.

  31. Burwood was
    LIB 2.2% (1988 post-redistribution)
    LIB 9.3% 1992
    LIB 8.6% 1996
    LIB 6.8% 1999
    ALP 3.6% 1999 by-election
    LIB 5.8% 1999 (redistribution on state election figures)
    ALP 5.1% 2002
    ALP 3.6% 2006
    ALP % 2006
    I’ll add earlier figures when I get home

  32. Mulder is probably the one with the biggest presence and the best performer, although admittedly he’s got alot to work with as he’s Shadow Transport.

    The Libs best bet would be to do a Qld style merge and make Peter Ryan the leader…….. (only half joking!)

  33. #44

    I think there was a small fire at Lysterfield one day but if you mean they were part of the big fires, then no.

    By Kewoo do you mean Karoo? I think that’s in suburban Rowville.

  34. MDM at least Peter Ryan is a leader Ted is no leader IMHO.

    He’s only ever on the TV to complain about something, he’s got no policies.

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