Essential Research: 60-40

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead at 60-40, up from 59-41 last week. Also featured are interesting findings on development of nuclear power plants for electricity generation (43 per cent support, 35 per cent oppose) and whether Australia has an obligation to dispose of nuclear waste from countries it exports uranium to (26 per cent agree, 53 per cent disagree), along with perceptions of the Australian-US relationship and a quiz question on Australia Day (which makes me wonder how many answered without recourse to Google). Other news:

• The South Australian Liberals have suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of independent Geoff Brock in the Frome by-election following Saturday’s distribution of preferences. Crikey subscribers can read my post-mortem here, and a still lively discussion is raging on my live coverage post. The Advertiser reports that Brock’s success might give other potential independent candidates ideas, including “ALP stalwarts such as Rod Sawford and Murray Delaine”, who were respectively Labor members for the federal seat of Port Adelaide and the state seat of Cheltenham. Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith says he is “ready to make deals with any independent candidate who ran next year in safe Labor seats such as Port Adelaide, Croydon, Lee and Colton”.

• Speculation about an early Queensland election continues to stop and start. Mark Bahnisch of Larvatus Prodeo says the Courier-Mail has damaged its credibility with its repeated wolf-crying on the subject, while The Australian’s D. D. McNicoll contends that “the whisper in Queensland political circles is Premier Anna Bligh will call the state election on February 28, a date that ensures bumper superannuation payouts for all the surviving members of the ALP’s ‘Class of 2001’ who were never expected to serve more than one term in parliament.” “Former Howard government senior adviser” David Moore surveys the landscape in The Australian.

• The NSW Nationals’ plans to select a candidate in a winnable seat for the 2011 state election by holding an open primary has caught the attention of blogger Tim Andrews, who is “unsure why this proposal hasn’t received more attention, as it has the potential to revolutionise Australian politics”. Ben Raue at The Tally Room reckons the idea is “at least a good gimmick”. The Nationals’ briefing paper on the subject can be read here.

• Western Australia’s daylight saving referendum will be held on May 16. Daylight saving was previously voted down in 1975 (53.66 per cent against), 1984 (54.35 per cent) and 1992 (53.14 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

519 comments on “Essential Research: 60-40”

Comments Page 7 of 11
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  1. Glen, I’m not surprised that Vera has something better to do than to try and fix a broken record. I’ve tried and it’s not possible.

  3. Hurray!

    Stephen Harper’s Tories will survive a vote of confidence in the Canadian House of Commons because the Liberal Party has buckled lol!

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090128.wPOLbudget0128/BNStory/politics/home

    “Tories put on probation; coalition breaks up
    To Layton’s chagrin, Ignatieff says he is prepared to ‘swallow hard’ and support budget so long as Harper releases regular economic status reports”

    Sweet!

  4. “NSW is already in recession, and the rest of Australia is hot on its heels…”

    You conveniently missed the rest of the line Glen:

    “a new forecast to be published today says”

    Come back when you have some real evidence lol

  8. Glen – “evidence” is observable reality actually measured.

    Forecasts are estimates of what observable reality might say, at some future period, once we actually measure it.

    “Did you witness the murder of that man”?

    “No your honour, but I do believe that I will in the future!”

    😀

  9. Possum the mere fact that forecasts are pointing to a recession for Australia is evidence that the economy is in bad shape or we wouldnt be having such forecasts…

  11. Vera, i’ve given Ron permission to forward you some emails i hope you dont mind. 🙂

    Steve K, when i was a little girl going to church with my parents there was a hymm they sang, the opening words were “open my eyes that i may see” now why is it every time i see one of those blinkered right wing blogs it goes through my mind and i start humming it? 🙂 gee i do luv being able to make blinkies, though i’ll have to practice the frowning ones lol.

  12. [Possum the mere fact that forecasts are pointing to a recession for Australia is evidence that the economy is in bad shape or we wouldnt be having such forecasts…]

    But how is that evidence that NSW is in recession?

    Come on Glen, just admit you were wRONg 😉

  13. To be fair to Glen the bit about NSW being in recession is not a forecast – that is a current reality. WA is probably close too. The rest of the country isn’t, but the forecast for it to go into recession is now almost certain to be true IMO.

    The solution now is to move to job stimulii. As an aside if there are any policy people reading, for infrastructure, could I also encourage them to consider higher maintenance spending. Not only is it labor-intensive but it has tangible benefits. Many of the rail closures in Adelaide and Melbourne yesterday were due in part to past lack of track maintenance spending, especially not converting to concrete sleepered track. There is no sexy ribbon cutting ceremony for politicans to appear at, but maintenance of existing infrastructure is at least as important as building new stuff. Just ask the people of Minneapolis.

  14. As i have repeated many times, like a parrot:

    1. Why we are not yet in recession
    2. Why we are not yet in deficit
    3. So what is wrong with the Rudd Govt?

    It is interesting to see that IMF recommends for Australia a $35B deficit for the near term. I want our own recession and deficit. I am sick and tired of watching other countries trumpeting how big their recession and deficit are. I want the recession and deficit that we had to have. PJK, where are you when we need you?

    So Ruddster, hurry up so we can put “amoeba” like Glen & Allbull in their cytoplastic place.

  16. Dario do you think forecasts are not based on existing evidence available???
    If they point to a recession then that is evidence we are heading for one.

    I’m not wrong.

  17. Socrates agreed, infrastructure has been neglected for too long and now is the perfect time to start upgrading, bugga the aversion to deficits, when you buy a house or new car it’s usually with a morgage you can whittle down later as your money comes in, so thats what the governments have to do, spend now pay it up later a bit at a time.

  18. Judith I would like to get your emails you say Ron will forward but I don’t think he has my email address. Or am I misunderstanding what you said?

  19. [Dario do you think forecasts are not based on existing evidence available???
    If they point to a recession then that is evidence we are heading for one.]

    Glen, what do you believe is the success rate of economic forecasting in the last year?

  21. [Judith I would like to get your emails you say Ron will forward but I don’t think he has my email address. Or am I misunderstanding what you said?]

    Ron would probably have misspelled it anyway… 😉

  23. sorry i had the impression he had it and sent him a message to forward them, if you’d like to ask William fot my email addy i’ll send them to you, Ron seems to think you might be interested, it’s up to you 🙂

  26. Oz and Steven K

    Do you know how club works, do you know how much money some of the larges clubs in NSW have in the bank, well it is in excess of 8 figures, I know because I used to audit them

    So unless you know how they work, please do not make a fool of yourselves.

    What happenss with clubs are they get membership fees normally at the start of the year, the will also get revenue from food and pokies, these has to pay the expense of the club for the whole year. So money sits in the bank/term deposits for the whole year until they are spend, or are required to be paid back as loan repayments.

    That is why clubs are not an ideal source of economic churn (slightly better than government) because it takes them so long to spend money (ie they will also keep some reserved)

    While if the government employed people, most of us spend the money within the month we received them, that is a much quicker churn and creats more jobs than if a money went into a pokies

    So unless you two know what you are talking about please stop posting

    LOL

  27. dovif, how DARE you tell anyone not to post here, thats William’s perogative, what cheek!!!
    we have only your word your an auditor, if so your spelling and diction’s dreadful, i left school in grade 7 and i think your up to par with my ability, i just rang a friend who runs a large club and put your allegations to her, she just about fell off the chair laughing, of course they make a profit on pokies but a lot after tax gets poured into upgrading facilities and wages, they make a loss on the cheap meals provided and the pokies subsidises that, anyway it’s obviously no good pointing these things out to you because you dont want to debate you just want to acclaim yourself Right.
    anyone can hide behind a nick here on line and claim to be whoever or whatever they want to be, well dovif i cant, i use my right name and i’m too well known in my home town to hide behind anything or tell whoppers about myself.

  30. [these has to pay the expense of the club for the whole year. So money sits in the bank/term deposits for the whole year until they are spend,]

    So in other words, they spend money throughout the year.

  33. China claims it’s economy is moving from winter into spring. Dunno if he’s referring to the Kondratieff wave cycle with that or if it’s just an allegory.

    [CHINA has boldly suggested that its economy is already rebounding from the global financial crisis.

    It has also warned that the new Obama administration should stop attacking Beijing for supposedly boosting its competitiveness by artificially depressing its currency. ]

    And they’re blaming the US, as are the Russians.

    [“I just want to remind you that, just a year ago, American delegates speaking from this rostrum emphasised the US economy’s fundamental stability and its cloudless prospects.

    “Today, investment banks, the pride of Wall Street, have virtually ceased to exist. In just 12 months, they have posted losses exceeding the profits they made in the last 25 years,” Mr Putin said. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24979251-643,00.html

  35. Well the real point about about the Daily Terrorgraph article about pokies and govt. handout has been missed. And people have been discussing a mirage as if solid.

    There was no increase in pokie use because of the handout.

    December 2006 was more than Dec 2008 [that embrassing fact is hidden in the text and contradicts the thrust of the headline].

    Did the handout , in ’08, cause the higher pokie revenue 2 years prior?

  36. fredex, as ive asserted all along, most journos wont spoil a good story with the truth, believe me i’ve been in a position to know all too well.

  37. Judith,

    Remember that auditors are just accountants with out the wit and charm. Their only useful skill is to make 1 + 1 equal whatever you want it to.

  38. “The auditors have just left, sir.”

    “Did they check the books?”

    “Very thoroughly.”

    “What did they say?”

    “They want 15% to keep quiet.”

  39. [“I just want to remind you that, just a year ago, American delegates speaking from this rostrum emphasised the US economy’s fundamental stability and its cloudless prospects – Putin]

    I also seem to remember McCain also uttered those immortal words: “The fundamentals of our economy are sound”.

    [CHENGDU – More than one million migrant workers, who were forced to return home in southwest China’s Sichuan Province late last year amid the impact of the global financial crisis, have found new jobs.

    Out of the 1.49 million migrant workers who had returned home, 1.03 million have found new jobs through training and job fairs organized by the government, according to the provincial labor and social security department.]

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-01/28/content_7430274.htm

    It is true that the Great Satan has always been good at pointing the finger at others, yet refuses to admit its own errors. The new Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, must have spent too much time at Wall St winter accusing China was “manipulating” its currency. This guy is cutting off the hands that feed him. He should be grateful that the World, in particular the Asians, are still relying on the $USD as their reserve currency. If not, the US economy will be fffffed. He should be sent to Siberia to feel what the spring is like over there, let alone winter. Obama should pull him just as he pulled Biden in for making a joke over the Chief Justice Roberts.

    Just as well that Hillary Clinton is now in charge of the FA and she calls for:

    [“We need a comprehensive dialogue with China,” Clinton said. “The strategic dialogue that was begun in the Bush administration turned into an economic dialogue,” she said — a reference to former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s Strategic Economic Dialogue, high-level discussions that have been held twice a year starting in late 2006. “That’s a very important aspect of our relationship with China, but it’s not the only aspect of our relationship.”

    Clinton said the Obama administration is working to design “a more comprehensive approach that will be more in keeping with the important role that China is playing and will be playing.” “The economy will always be a centerpiece of our relationship, but we want it to be part of a broader agenda,” she said.]

    http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/01/28/america/NA-US-China.php

    In Hillary we trust.

  42. Look what happens when the Libs get into power. Won’t Julie Bishop be pleased to see her home state have their own version of Workchoices
    [WA ‘to reject’ new federal IR system
    Mr Buswell told a Senate committee inquiring into the Fair Work Bill in Perth that WA will not be signing up to the new federal system.

    Employers should have the flexibility to be able to make individual contracts a precondition of employment, he told the inquiry on Thursday.

    NSW Senator Doug Cameron, a member of the committee, asked Mr Buswell how it would work.

    “That would be part of the discussion and the understanding of the decision to take a job or not,” Mr Buswell replied.

    “So it’s ‘my way or the highway’ … back to Work Choices?” Senator Cameron asked.

    “It’s our view that … (employees and employers should) arrange their affairs to have flexibility as they see fit,” Mr Buswell said.

    “You don’t have to take the job, at the end of the day.”]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/wa-to-reject-new-federal-ir-system-20090129-7ssk.html

    Judith have a go with these (F)
    One for Ron and Finns (ip)
    And GG (&)
    http://www.muller-godschalk.com/msn60.html

  45. Amigo Vera, in my business ip stands for intellectual properties. how appropriate. TQ. btw, have you been emailing Amigo Ronnie? He’s been channeling a bit of ip lately.

  46. Finns (ip) was supposed to show a little picture of an island.
    Nope ain’t been emailing Ronnie, can’t haven’t got his address 😉

  47. WA cannot reject the new Federal IR system, remember the High Court, Corporations Powers of the Constitution and all that good stuff?

    Sorry Mr Buswell WA does not have to sign up to anything, it can be imposed on your state – Howard et al proved it.

  48. Vera, i’m a luddite so maybe it’s just as well they dont work lol. 🙂

    gosh i luv you guys lol, i’ll never think of auditors the same way. 🙂

    Vera, somehow with things going downhill and WA maybe going into recession maybe a few voters there might just be regretting the change in their government.

  49. VERA

    Confession time I made a boo, again

    What happened is I get a email from William out of th blue , saying a Judy wants her email address sent to me , so I replys

    And its Judith Barnes who writes back giving all this info & links from adreadful personel case her & other SA familys been affected by for years

    You see prevous nite Vera , I’d put my foot in it (again) in a blog to Judith in reply to her saying she had big personal issues , and me saying sorry to hear about that , blah blah and if PB bologgers can help lets us all know .,…I’d put my big foot in it , NOT knowing it had been big SA news for years (so Judith on her own bats desided to email me to tell me all about it with SA news links etc)

    So then I read it all and then I wrotten back to Judith to say keeps your chin up etc Now I should hav stopped there But no , not without putting nother big foot in…so I also says to Judith she should quote “keep you in mind for possible future chats” as I say you good hart friend Then today Judith mentiond this my coment in a post today Sorry dob you in , so blog-sphere (very expensive) roses to you in mail

    BUT notise , I did NOT own up if I reely do hav your email address either way ! , ….that’s our ‘secret business’…a pact witnesed “Kirribilli” syle by our own PK….. (and also hell , what is etiquette when a Lady a “Judy’ you don’t even know writes ? …maybe a ‘gentleman’ does ignore Vera , but then no one has ever called me a gentleman

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