Essential Research: 60-40

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead at 60-40, up from 59-41 last week. Also featured are interesting findings on development of nuclear power plants for electricity generation (43 per cent support, 35 per cent oppose) and whether Australia has an obligation to dispose of nuclear waste from countries it exports uranium to (26 per cent agree, 53 per cent disagree), along with perceptions of the Australian-US relationship and a quiz question on Australia Day (which makes me wonder how many answered without recourse to Google). Other news:

• The South Australian Liberals have suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of independent Geoff Brock in the Frome by-election following Saturday’s distribution of preferences. Crikey subscribers can read my post-mortem here, and a still lively discussion is raging on my live coverage post. The Advertiser reports that Brock’s success might give other potential independent candidates ideas, including “ALP stalwarts such as Rod Sawford and Murray Delaine”, who were respectively Labor members for the federal seat of Port Adelaide and the state seat of Cheltenham. Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith says he is “ready to make deals with any independent candidate who ran next year in safe Labor seats such as Port Adelaide, Croydon, Lee and Colton”.

• Speculation about an early Queensland election continues to stop and start. Mark Bahnisch of Larvatus Prodeo says the Courier-Mail has damaged its credibility with its repeated wolf-crying on the subject, while The Australian’s D. D. McNicoll contends that “the whisper in Queensland political circles is Premier Anna Bligh will call the state election on February 28, a date that ensures bumper superannuation payouts for all the surviving members of the ALP’s ‘Class of 2001’ who were never expected to serve more than one term in parliament.” “Former Howard government senior adviser” David Moore surveys the landscape in The Australian.

• The NSW Nationals’ plans to select a candidate in a winnable seat for the 2011 state election by holding an open primary has caught the attention of blogger Tim Andrews, who is “unsure why this proposal hasn’t received more attention, as it has the potential to revolutionise Australian politics”. Ben Raue at The Tally Room reckons the idea is “at least a good gimmick”. The Nationals’ briefing paper on the subject can be read here.

• Western Australia’s daylight saving referendum will be held on May 16. Daylight saving was previously voted down in 1975 (53.66 per cent against), 1984 (54.35 per cent) and 1992 (53.14 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

519 comments on “Essential Research: 60-40”

Comments Page 5 of 11
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  1. re daylight saving
    Most farmers now have bulk milk storage, but at peak times the milk is picked up every day.
    in theory the farmers can milk at any time, but in reality they have to fall in line with the rest of society
    They usuall start milking at 4 pm , which reverts to 3 pm in ds.
    This is in the very hottest part of the day which is most uncomfortable and difficult for the cows and the farmer.
    No farmer in his right mind would ever vote for daylight saving
    Speaking as an exdairy farmer

  2. Turnbull will have plenty of opportunity to sit down and work positively through the issues with the Government. We used to call it Parliament.

  4. it’s Malcolm’s fault, it’s all that hot air he’s blowing out causing this massive heatwave, phew it’s bluddy hot here, i’ve got ducted evaporative and it’s struggling.

  5. Judy

    Its a balmy 29 degrees here on the Sunny Coast Qld – I have the doors and windows open and the sea breeze is refreshing. 😛

    Turnbull was in Qld today chanting LNP-LNP-LNP so maybe he is sucking up Springborg’s hot air and sending it south?

  6. ruawake, it hit over 45 here today and it’s going to stay over the 40’s for the next week, you can have Turnbull, he’s like a little boy throwing tantrums so mummy will take notice of him, my aircon has it bearable but i’m dreading it maybe overworking and blowing something during this week, even nights are expected to be in the high 30’s.

  7. 195 – good to see Turnbull is continuing with his bipartisan tactic. Here I was worried the LNP would come up with something new. Instead they’re obviously using the old “doing precisely what we’ve done 20 times before will catch the enemy by surprise” trick.

    I wish him well. 😀

  8. Gawd Judith you poor thing! We here on south coast NSW are forecast low to mid 30s for the next week and I thought that was bad enough, but I won’t dare complain now seeing you lot and the Vics are in for 40+ temps,
    Maybe it wouldn’t be such a bad idea to get malcolm to visit you Judith after all, he’s a big blowhard and if he was to do his thing he might blow all the hot weather away for you.

  9. Vera even getting rid of the heat wouldnt make me want Turnbull here, MHS is bad enough.
    OK guys thats it! clear out the spare rooms, ruawake i’m coming up to stay with you for a few days and then i’m moving down to Vera’s, dunno how Dio is travelling with the heat but he might end up your way as well,:)—luv those smileys.

  16. Judith the spare room’s yours 😀 just watch out for Possom’s relatives if you arrive at night! I got about a dozen of the buggers come looking for a feed when it gets dark.

  17. Grog my gravatar is nemisis goddess of retribution, i rather fancy the idea of her sneaking up on evildoers and tapping them on the shoulder with a nice smile, it’s just a foible of mine along with a belief in karma, it’s just the superstitious Irish side of my family — but you never know 🙂
    Vera i dont mind a few possums, the only one i’ve ever seen around PB’s seems a friendly enough chappy, one thing do they snack on unexpected visitors?

  20. Seems like Malcolm cant get anyone to agree with him, he’s been criticising the Govt’s $4bil construction fund and now an economist who advises Access Economics is full of praise for the plan.
    Also had to smile watching ABC news, they had a clip of Malcolm on talkback radio saying Rudds stimulus package hadn’t worked which was followed by a story of Woolworths sales being up ( 9% I think?) and the credit being given to Rudds stimulus package! Malcolm just can’t take a trick.
    [Mr Harper says the pre-emptive scheme shows the commercial property sector and the broader financial markets that the Government is on the ball and prepared to act.

    “If there is no evidence of a pull-out by foreign banks it may never be necessary to actually instigate this scheme and I for one, would hope that it won’t be necessary,” he said.

    “But it would be irresponsible of the Government in my view not to have up its sleeve a proposal which could be wheeled in if this eventuality comes to pass.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/28/2476474.htm?section=justin

  24. vera, i’ve quite a lot of stuff on my plate in the forseeable future but maybe when it’s all over and i need a bolt hole i might just come your way, ive got nimble fingers lol, 🙂

  26. Turnbull has opened a can of worms with his latest non sense.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/28/2476696.htm?section=justin

    Yet again he seems to think that reducing tax for individuals will help business, it will not. Reducing tax will not affect business – small or large. Unless Malcolm thinks they should keep the money and not pass it on to employees.

    Or is he talking about company tax? If he is ,come out and say it for crud’s sake.

    Next bit is depreciation “the Coalition would double depreciation rates…” so what? If you own rental property it may be a great thing, but how does it create jobs?

    It seems that Malcolm is looking after landlords – who will go for a cheap and nasty fix and pocket the money.

    Geez the guy is a dill. 😛

  27. The Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) says the Federal Government would be irresponsible if it did not go into deficit to stimulate the economy.

    I can’t wait ’till next tuesday – Spit Roast Malcolm. 😛

  28. Judith

    The 45.7 degree temp really wasn’t so bad today. I took the advice from that nice man the Energy Minister Paul Holloway and switched off the air conditioning. My family died of heat stroke but I feel happy knowing they didn’t die in vain. We helped keep up the charade that our State’s electricity system is functioning well.

    Of course, when the power blacked out despite the dead family and martyrish low electricity use, my mood soured somewhat. 🙁

  29. he’s a pratt, the government signals it’s looking towards tax cuts to help the economy so Turnbull jumps on the bandwagon and trumpets what kind of tax cuts they should bring forward and if the government does the tax cuts he’ll try to take the applause for it, seems like his mole in treasury has been tracked down, lately he hasnt been able to try and beat the government on what moves they’re making next, with the mole he managed to come up with what were government plans and act as if they were his ideas and Rudd was copying him, the trouble is he’s so transparent.

  30. Dio at least we didnt have a blackout in Salisbury but my evaporative is 12 years old so i’m speaking to it nicely to boost it along, i cant see any tech climbing up on my roof to give it new life if it goes, i must look at a new one next year.

  31. Judith, we are on the Murray 100 km east of Adelaide and its currently booming with thunder and lightning outside, bit scary really cos everything is very dry outside.

  32. fredex the lightning would be terrifying with the dryness around you, hopefully it’ll rain, all it is is bluddy hot here, about 37-8 overnight, hey Dio, perhaps we could go and camp in the hallowed precincts of a lovely cool parliament house, though i’ve no doubt it’ll hot up with the first sitting next week.

  33. Cuppa, back at 191, I think. Ad Astra at Political Sword has 2 new add ons on his site; one which watches what the gov’t. is doing and the other that watches what the Opposition is doing, well, saying really. I was looking through the gov’t. stuff and came across an announcement back in October last year of a pilot program for a defence site in W.A. on generating energy from wave power. It looked quite interesting, as it was proposed to power both the defence site and a desal. plant for the site.
    Must say, Turnbull is sounding more and more like a desperate wannabe. Must be a torture for he who thinks he should be PM, but ain’t. Glen, you guys have got to get rid of him. He’s definitely a loser.

  34. Diogenes, I can only whimper in sympathy, here in Melbourne. I don’t know how some of our vulnerable folk are surviving. You go do a home visit, and the temperature outside the house is, say, 37 degrees, and it will be 10 to 15 degrees hotter inside. Today was ghastly, with more on the way for S.E. Aust..

  35. Judith

    I went to Parliament House once. My brother-in-law won a guided tour and dinner with Joan Hall. Somehow I got dragged along. Let’s just say that Joan Hall and I didn’t hit it off. Her parting words to me were “I hope you grow out of your cynicism”.

    Clearly, I haven’t. I really had to stop myself from sending her a letter when she was forced to resign due to her Hindmarsh Stadium “conflict of interest”. The letter was going to be very short. “Looks like my cynicism was quite appropriate in your case, doesn’t it.”

  36. HSO, 37deg sounds like a lovely cool change from where i’m sitting, i was born in the worse heat wave we ever had here and i’ve hated the heat ever since, another week of this and i’ll be a unbearably temperamental old biddy and truly i’m usually a reasonably placid old fossil.

  37. Dio, i luv it, i wished you’d sent it, ooooh to be a fly on the wall when she opened it, i had a few run ins with Robin Millhouse when he was AG, i stayed polite though while gritting my teeth, Atkinsons ok but our best AG over the last few years was Chris Summner.

  38. Turnbull making a dill of himself again, Dio, can humans catch foot and mouth disease? Turnbull seems to have a bad case.
    does anyone want to guess how much the interest rates will be going down next week?

  40. I hesitate to post this as the article it refers to was written by Kerr at the OO, but after much deliberation, I thought I should still refer to it.

    Switkowski has clearly been following the polls closely and it won’t be long before the nuclear industry starts talking up this latest poll. Here he is commenting on a UMR poll from this month (which they intimate was done for the Labor Party) on what will be our predominant power source in 2028. 26% said solar (as if), 23% said coal (I’d estimate it was 90% certain to be coal) and 20% said nuclear, which pleased Ziggy no end. He described that as “strikingly strong” and said “The acceptance of nuclear continues to lift.”

    20pc say nuclear will carry the load
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24882067-2702,00.html

    Judith

    Joan Hall really revolted me. Sanctimonious and hypocritical, my least favourite combination.

  41. Hi Harry “Snapper” Organs,

    Thanks for the tip. Will check it out. I do check Ad Astra’s fine blog regularly, even add the occasional comment, but not, I’ll admit, since he signed off for 2008. Which reminds me, Bushfire Bill posts there pretty often too, but haven’t seen him around anywhere lately. Hope all is well with him, he’s having a good break, and will be back on deck soon.

    On tidal power. Something tells me we haven’t heard the last of this option. There is untold energy in waves, as any surfer who’s simply been dumped will testify. Considering the proportion of the population that lives in close proximity to the coast, must make the option more worth considering, or so I as a complete layman would have thought.

  43. now how would Kerr get his hands on labor party polling? is he guessing? by the way he’s trying to hint Obama rang Rudd because of his no call piece, Ziggy would jump on the bandwagon, of course, nuclear has been his hobby horse for years, i really cant see Rudd doing a u turn because of Essential Research,Kerr and Ziggy.
    Joan rode into politics on the coat tails of Steele, i didnt know either of them but then i’ve always been on friendlier terms with the labor pollies, labor lost a lot when Lynn Arnold moved on.

  44. Steve, Turnbull only sees what he wants to see and hear what he wants to hear, it’s great when you can just cherry pick with immunity.

  47. Diog “I hesitate to post this…” , but then you did

    It remind me of G island set where so many I lost count started off a blog with :
    ‘I don’t wish to insult you Ron , but …..” , then they damn well did

    You did report Ziggy coments , apro nuker and a vested interst in nuclear power And we get a ‘leaked’ convenient poll…and for that special year of 2028 BTW whats happening in 2028

    But neither Ziggy or pro nukers can properley address holes in nuke argument I raised today , or indeed made by other postersas well Instead they ignore them tinking we and our sound arguments against nuke power will go away , well we won’t and polls suport our side strongley

  49. Ron, you’ll never get the pro nuclear lobby to change their minds no matter what evidence you put in front of them, Ziggy is on a mission, nuff said.

  50. Judith you oppose nuclear energy for no other reason than you have been proven wrong that nuclear power is dangerous (it isnt) and wont help climate change (it will) and wont provide our future energy needs (it will)…the anti-nuclear proponents are like flat earthers they wont look at the science and the evidence because they have a religious like hate for something they know very little about…

    Mark my works Nuclear will be a part of Australia’s future energy needs whether you like it or not Judith…sit back and enjoy the ride!

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