Morgan: 60-40

It’s looking a very merry Christmas for pensioners and families and, not unrelatedly, the Rudd government, which has added a further 1 per cent to its already formidable two-party lead in a Christmas eve Morgan face-to-face poll. Curiously, the Greens are down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent in a survey conducted half before and half after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement of December 15. The slack has been taken up by a spike in the Labor primary vote from 48.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent, their best result in almost seven months. The Coalition primary vote is also up slightly, from 34.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent.

Morgan also produced two sets of leadership ratings last week, one comparing Rudd to Turnbull and the other comparing them both with their party colleagues. Rudd’s approval rating was up four points from the previous survey of October 15-16 to 68 per cent, while his lead over Turnbull as preferred prime minister had blown out from 62.5-24 to 69-20. Worringly for Turnbull, his approval rating was down 13 per cent to 42 per cent while his disapproval was up from 24 per cent to 37.5 per cent, a much sharper turnaround than recorded by Newspoll over the same period (from 50-25 to 47-32). The preferred Labor leader results turned up no surprises, but the Liberal ratings interestingly found Turnbull tied with Peter Costello on 28 per cent. This compared with Costello’s lead of 31 per cent to 20 per cent in the previous such survey of September 10-11, when Brendan Nelson was still leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

391 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. fredn

    [I’d just like to know your reaction if I argued Mary was a really good talker given she convinced Joesph that god and not the postman was the father.]

    I’ve tried that one myself a few times. It really lead ballooned.

  2. Patrick Fogarty,

    In the immortal words of Amigo Ronnie:

    [Two wRONgs dont make a right]

    Would it make you feel even better if I say that he also seduced and married his daughter-in-law. When asked, he said: “Allah made me do it”. I have no doubt the Pope also says: “God make me do it”.

    Diog, you are WRONg, again. Did we elect a POTUS or a movie star? Obama jives while USA burns, is that what you want? You better let your delightful wife loose, she makes better sense.

  3. [Right, Mr Brilliance – ask Jeff Kennett and soon to be NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell.]

    Oh yes, Patrick Fogarty both those gentlemen went well in their last election tussles didn’t they? I’ve forgotten what I am supposed to ask them. Was it why their last campaigns stumbled as badly as they did?

  4. Finns

    Obama is now officially recognised as the greatest President elect ever. I feel proud to have supported the greatest candidate ever, despite all the doubters. It shows that I was RIGHT all along. The US finally picked someone worthy of the job.

    Change is coming to America! 😀

    PS It looks like Obi is going to ask the Ruddster for more troops in Afghanistan and to settle some of the Guantanamo Bay inmates. Both might strain the friendship.

  5. fredn, having spent 11 years in and out of courtrooms i think theres very little about the way the judicial system works that i havnt experienced, revenge? well i dont think i’m a revengeful person, i’m utterly anti the death penalty which amazes most people who dont know me, yes i would like a certain group of people named and shamed, maybe you could call it revenge, i call it a smidgen of justice though there can never be real justice in our cases, actually if they were named and shamed quite a few innocent names that have been tied in as a result of surmising gossip would be cleared, i’d like that for their sake, my family along with others has lived for years with a sword hanging over our heads never knowing when it may drop, well it may be closer to dropping than what certain people realise, we are blessed with the best police force in Australia here, they have looked after us and protected us from the pirhana feeding frenzy of the media as best they could, many of them are now personal friends and mentors, i have a great deal of satisfaction that a lot of changes to the plight of victims has been bought about by us, along with the co operation and help of the labor party over the years, for that i’m eternally grateful, i apologise to William for digressing from the subject on hand, rant finished, Judy.

  6. [Obama is now officially recognised as the greatest President elect ever]

    yes Diog, but what has he done beyond prancing and jiving around? except putting together Clinton Admin Mark 2. Not complaining btw. Would prefer Obama Mark 1.

    Come and tell me about it in 4 years time and then i will salute Obi if he is as good as you say he is. Like i said, your wife is making better sense than you do.

  7. Obama has the goodwill of the masses to enable him to bring about massive changes, my hope is that he’ll use it well, America hasnt a very good track record on protecting it’s progessive politicians, i hope they look after this one a bit better, Obama is only human and he’ll make a few stumbles on the way as he learns the ropes, dont expect perfection, {thats what too many expected of Rudd} just remember that Obama like Rudd may have to water down some of his aims to get it through a hostile senate, but one step leads to another in reform, the world might be going through hard times right now but the changing of the guard gives us some hope.

  8. morning all, hope everyone survived Christmas OK. I was on the road for 5 hrs, spent day with rellies, ate myself stupid and got belly on me like a poisioned pup.
    Judith all the best for 2009 with the trial and TV documentary.

    Hey Finns, I saw Obama was out in the surf. could it be he’s trying to make friends with your dolphin mates?

  9. Finn@58

    [quote]Judith,

    Rudd never promised:

    New Politics and We are the Change that You Can Believe in[/quote]

    Obama is not yet pres!

  10. Finn i know Rudd never promised but some voters seemed to think he is super human when he’s not, after all he’s just a man trying the best he can to steer the good ship OZ in a turnaround, it WILL happen as long as folk dont put unrealistic expectations on him, he has to get his reforms through a very hostile senate, Brown has to learn re climate change that a 1/2 loaf for the time being is better than none, it’ll just take more time thats all, Rudd’s a good man at heart, as his long time unheralded volunteer work with the underpriviledged shows and i believe he really wants to make a difference to Australia and perhaps help in the world.
    Rudd’s attitude is decidedly different to certain members of the coalition who try a con by emulating him, Turnbull gave his xmas address from a centre where he was packing hampers to the needy, c’mon, there is no way anyone would swallow Turnbull has done that in his priviledged past, Turnbull’s forays into helping charity would consist of being seen at the glitzy fundraiser balls where all the correct elite are to be seen and Nelson’s well publicised gutter sitting stretches credability along with the Tarrago with five kids and a wheelchair in the back, they must think the average voter is stupid.
    our leaders image of themselves show in where they live, Rudd’s very ordinary, average suburban house in queensland, or Turnbull’s waterside mansion in Sydney, i’m not saying Turnbull shouldnt enjoy his money but for heavens sake why try to pretend he’s in touch with the average punter under morgage stress and living week by week.

  11. Finns

    My wife is a horribly cynical, Marxist, post-modernist, anti-atheist, anti-science, anti-medicine, anti-capitalist thug. As I’m sure you can imagine, she’s never been right about anything apart from hitting the jackpot with her choice of husband.

    Wait for the 20th January. The world will change.

  12. [Finn i know Rudd never promised but some voters seemed to think he is super human]

    Judith, no, no, no. Pls dont blame it on the voters. Obama made those promises and the voters bought them. So he better delivers.

    Amigo Vera,

    [ate myself stupid and got belly on me like a poisioned pup]

    what about a bit of dancing. we the dolphins are very keen on tap dancing.

    Also we dolphins can spot the oily one from way beyond the surf. Especially the oiliness from Chicago.

    We also love the other oily ones, the tunas, raw ala sashimi with a touch bonito soya sauce and wasabi with a bit of Watusi thrown in.

  13. Finn i cant answer for Obama, only hope, but i DID vote for Rudd and will give him a bit of slack as long as he’s heading in the right direction.

  14. Diog,

    [Wait for the 20th January. The world will change.]

    You could be RIGHT for the first time. But the change will not come from the great satan.

    [The structural problem of the Chinese economy can be described in one sentence: China produces from plants financed by foreign investment that operate with low domestic wages for foreign markets that pay with dollars that cannot be used in the domestic economy.

    The solution to this structural problem can also be summed up in one sentence: China must finance plants with sovereign credit to produce for the domestic market where consumer purchasing power will come from high wages, with sovereign credit repaid from increased tax revenue from a vibrant domestic economy.]

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JL24Cb01.html

    When the Chinese wean themselves of the addiction to export and rely more on their domestic economy. the world will definitely change again, no more DVD players for $20. Can you live with that?

    As far as your delightful wife is concerned, pls let us be the judge. You just cant stand competition.

    Judith, Mr. Lu Kewen is going great gun, dont you worry about that. He is also the right man to deal with the Chinese transformation as well.

  15. gosh reading back i’m jealous of those who managed to stuff themselves over xmas meals, i’ve got the granddaddy of all chest colds and managed a sliver of ham taken from the carving plate xmas eve, yesterday i couldnt eat at all but perhaps i’ll manage some cold chicken later today, i LUV xmas food too, aint it a bugga when the soul is willing but the body says differently.

  16. fredn

    I’ve pointed that out a few times. She’s related to an Archbishop so my struggle with that one is Sisyphean.

    I showed Mrs Diogenes what I wrote about her. She objected to being called anti-capitalist. She thinks capitalism is the best system as long as all the profits are redistributed to the less well off. And people wonder why I get frustrated sometimes.

  17. Tom
    The manuscript was translated from German so if you want to be fussy it was probable something along the line “Die Religion ist das Opium des Volkes’

  18. [ not the postman was the father.
    I’ve tried that one myself a few times. It really lead ballooned]

    Posties are incredibly sensitive, Seinfield got a lot of mileage out of Nueman the paranoic postie.

  19. fredn

    Volkes is more commonly translated as “people”. Masses is a bit perjorative.

    Anyway, the Marquis de Sade sort of said it first; “You fear the powerful eye of genius, that is why you encourage ignorance. Tis opium you feed your people, so that, drugged, they do not feel their hurts, inflicted by you.”

  20. [i’m jealous of those who managed to stuff themselves over xmas ]

    I stuffed myself stupid also judith, didn’t need dinner and only a small brekky today and went shopping.

    Stores were quite, quiter than I remember for a long time.

  21. Dio

    Love that expression “Don’t go postal on me”.

    Poor posties, we had one who did the rural run, known as the “dragon lady”, minor scandal in town when one of the “lads” took up with her 14 year old daughter, he was 35. Different rules in the country, also severe shortage of women, so the men start wooing them very early.

  22. And another religous leader comes in for criticism,

    [“If Christ were on Earth today, undoubtedly he would stand with the people in opposition to bullying, ill-tempered and expansionist powers,” he said.
    “If Christ were on Earth today, undoubtedly he would hoist the banner of justice and love for humanity to oppose warmongers, occupiers, terrorists and bullies the world over.”]

    Got rightly slammed for those comments.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/outrage-at-ahmadinejads-christmas-message/2008/12/26/1229998704754.html

  23. Castle,

    He is not a religious leader. He is “Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad”, a politician.

    Actually, i am not too sure which one is more dangerous.

  24. [Rudd’s real test is going to come in how he deals with the crisis and the pass-fail mark of the test will be the number of jobless Australians next year.]

    Dennis and another test, now that is a novelty.

  25. I wouldn’t be too harsh on Denis for it is only commonsense that next year could break the Rudd Governemnt but based on christmas shopping and the general direction of Interest Rates combined with a sensible approach to ETS!

    Yes it may well be on the softer size than required but lets be realistic the Australian economic needs to be nursed back to health and at the currant point of time the Government should be able to keep the economic in check!

    Of course job loses have started and depending on how broad wil only naturally impact on the Governments poll standing and I do know that things are tight and will continue to be so for the near future!

    If history is repeated then expect the second part of 2009 to be very tough and how the Government deals with this will directly impact on its re-election changes!

    With this comment I am starting to sound like a broken record for the economic situation and the political situation have been largley unchanged since mid 2008 and nothing is going to change anytime soon.

    I expect that the Liberal Party will stick with Malcolm Turnbull but there may be a few changes but the ball is well and durly in the Governments court.

  26. MB, a lot of people i know including coalition adherants are pssd off with the pevious government for spreeing the mining largesse instead of salting it away or spending it on infrastructure, especially now we desperately need it, your not giving the punters the credit of having enough sense to realise any downturn is the result of world events and the coalition would probably do worse.

  27. Thanks Judith!

    I agree with your point (84) One of the reasons the Government has maintained such a healthy lead over the Liberals is for the very reason you point too!

    The only way the economy will hurt the Government is and I seriously dealt the economy will but if the economy was to completely tank now there are several reasons why I don’t believe that will happen!

    Interest Rates heading down
    Petrol Prices heading down
    Property prices heading down softly! to a more affordable level
    Christmas shopping has been very good
    Various spending programs

    All up the Government has handled the situation as well as one can expect in what has been a very fast moving and mostly been externally driven downturn!

    The Government needs to remain on the ball and continue when needed to add spending, but it is important that the spending is well aimed.

    There is a danger that unemployment could get out of control and the Government needs to be watchful, yes the voters understand this is a globel problem but when you are made unemployed you will naturally look for someone to kick and depending on the Governments response then it may well cope it.

  28. (Sigh……) More tests….

    [Rudd’s real test is going to come in how he deals with the crisis and the pass-fail mark of the test will be the number of jobless Australians next year.

    Whatever the figure, it will be a fiercely contested benchmark for Rudd, Wayne Swan and the whole Labor Government.]

    And in case we didn’t get what Dennis was on about…

    [The point is that every action the Government takes is going to be measured against how many jobs are lost or saved by its actions.]

    So, if jobs drop somewhat due to the greatest financial crisis in history (or maybe the second greatest), the Labor will be turfed out, in shame, for its poor economic management. Of course (as Dennis says earlier in the article),

    [Nobody is blaming the Rudd Government for the onset of the global crisis, although it is clear it was slow to catch on to what was happening despite claims of being “ahead of the curve”.]

    So I suppose we can assume that Dennis would think Rudd’s outsting by angry voters as a result of the GFC would be one of Life’s great travesties of justice? Yeah, and the other one has little Santas on it.

    At least we can be grateful that Dennis has moved on. Once upon a time his “fundamental benchmark” was something as simple as who scored an extra point in Newspoll’s PPM ratings. Now the new FB is “the number of jobless next year”. That’s sort-of progress, isn’t it? I mean at least Dennis doesn’t own the jobless figures, right?

  29. BB, the last big test set by Dennis was the last Federal Budget which was supposed to see Rudd’s popularity drop like a rock.

    Milne set the main 2008 ‘test’ as Grocery, fuel and interest rate costs but that seems to have been and gone too. How are Glen’s figures quickly calculated on a back of an envelope for these three criteria on election night last year holding up?

    The quizmasters at Newscorp have had a very lean year when it comes to being relevant to the current political debate.

  30. i would have thought Dennis would have used his remarkable analysing skills on working out how mr. popularity, rainman, has tanked so badly and how the great white saviour can be reinvented, the intrepid Janet claimed it was “game on ladies and gentlemen” to use her exact words when rainman took over as head honcho, i dont think this lot of political commentators should set up their crystal ball scrying tent at the fairgrounds any time soon — how could they get it so wrong!!!!
    am i the only one whose mind boggles at the thought of our hero Dennis on his knees in church praying devoutly? i though he only worshipped at the great coalition altar {apologies to anyone offended by this remark} it is a strange thought after all.

  31. Judith,

    The interesting thing about the article was that Shanahan was visiting a Church that he does not usually attend. Full marks for going outside his usual habits. However, the analysis that the priest was a conduit for a growing backlash against Rudd and Co because they had not delivered “nirvana on a stick” in twelve months shows up the full on denialist that is at the heart of any Shanahan article.

    The only ‘raison d’etre” for commentators like Shanahan is they have inside contacts, or an informed perspective or an intellectual perception of events that transcend the day to day ephemerality that afflicts mere motrals. Telling us that employment is a key issue for the future re-election of the Rudd Government hardly cuts the mustard.

    Unfortunately, the removal of his coalition meal ticket as Government has left him stranded in a nether world of uncertainty. He clearly has not come to grips with the Labor ascencion. Nor does he believe “the poll that he owns” that puts Labor at nearly 60%. Furthermore, he adds nothing to the debate apart from “The sky is going to fall cos……”.

    My guess he is going to hang around till the political worm turns and then he can play “Dennis the Baptist” to whatever Liberal Messiah wanders along. Might be waiting a while though.

  32. Looks like Rudd might take a few Gitmo inmates. The Greens are in high moral dudgeon and say he shouldn’t help the US as they created the Gitmo problem.

    [KEVIN Rudd has left open the possibility of Australia taking former inmates from the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay, but warned that any US request for an inmate to come would be subject to legal criteria and assessed on a case-by-case basis.

    As the Greens warned the Prime Minister he faced a political backlash if he accepted detainees held in the US military jail at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, a spokesman for Mr Rudd confirmed that US authorities had approached Australia and other countries about resettling the detainees]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24845331-601,00.html

  33. Dio, i cant see Rudd slamming the door in Obama’s face, not if he wants a good relationship with him, however i think Rudd will exercise his right to be extremely choosy as to who he lets into our shores and whoever it is like Hicks would have to comply with some very strict conditions, i doubt very much Rudd would take in more than one or two at the max.
    this is on a ride to nowhere, going by the blogs and opinions i’ve heard Andrews like Ruddock is unredeemable, the only good thing either of them could do for the libs is resign forthwith, you cant resurrect corpses in the real world and those two are swinging in the breeze, by their own actions so they’ve been judged, they played Howard’s game willingly with more than gusto, Ruddock admitted he turned his back on his ethics for a ministry, most Australians now look at both of them with contempt, any chance of the libs rehabilitating Andrews is a big fat zilch.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24845989-601,00.html

  34. Kevin Rudd is going to commentate at the cricket today. 🙂

    Agree Judith. Andrews has more problems than the public’s perception of him, which will never recover. He has been hopeless at every portfolio he’s been given. Remember his efforts to bring in SerfChoices? Haneef was just one of his many stuff-ups in Immigration. The more we see of him on the Liberal Party, the better. Turnbull is an idiot.

  35. People are saying that the Government wont be blamed if the Economy tanks! I undaerstand where they are coming from but if and I would be very surprised if the following happened but if we had a repeat of the Melbourne Bust or Great Depression in other words

    -Unemployment reaching 30% – 50%
    -A large number of people leave our major cities
    -Large areas of suburbia vacant
    -Massive cuts in spending, wages and pensions

    Scullin was elected in similar circumstances as Rudd was (Unpopular I.R) and fell after three years, yes there are several differents between then and now but still lets not overlook the lessions of history which Rudd appears to have learnt.

    If this happened then of course the Government wil be thrown out! but lets remember one big thing this Government has approached this situation very differently than the Governments of the 1890s & 1930s and while it will need to be careful not to lose control of its budget but most of the spending is one off or capital works therefore its bottom ine should be straight-forward to recoupe.

    The other danger for the Government is the voters reaction to ETS, yes the Government took the safe option which has upset some people but the Government needed to get the balance right and they have done that.

    I’m not surprised by the fall in the Green vote for its support being on the small sizes is more prone to movements of three to four points while the major parties generally have a firm base vote.

    The currant set of issues don’t play well for the Greens for many of their supporters are now faced with the real prospect of unemployment which in-turn means economic issues will become more important.

    The Greens need to adjust to the situation for as I wrote after the ETS was announced the Green could find themselves wedged, just as Rudd has wedged the Liberals on the economy.

    I expect the Greens will adjust for they have gone from 11 years of Howard, he was an easy target for the Greens, at this stage Rudd isn’t as easy for he is still a newbies PM.

    This will change as the Government ages so its possible in the short term that the Greens support may go backwards just as the Liberals are going through the normal first term opposition torment.

    As I have said before the ALP’s biggest test is 2009! if I can sit here in twelve months and the situation is stable then Rudd will cruse to a second term, but if the economy has tanked then Rudd will face being a oncer!

    Of-course being faced with being a oncer is different to becoming one! I am sure the ALP are already setting the ground work for 2010.

  36. Kevin Andrews really needs to be retired, if the Liberals were half smart they would replace him with Mary Woolridge MP for Doncaster which is in the federal seat of Menzies, Andrews has to be close to one of the worst performers in the Howard Government and in my view is completely unfit to be an MP.

  37. Andrews isnt the only one poisoned by work choices, everyone who took it on is now seen as damaged goods, Hockey seems to have lost his mojo ever since he became involved, your right Dio, Andrews has never been anything but a failure at whatever he took on, but then look at the whole sorry lot, without Howard to cover and think for them they’re nothing, look at the larger than life bombastic Costello, he skulks quietly on the back bench, the nasty spiteful mad monk, mr. people skills, how much do we hear from him except for the occasional column? nothing! Hockey surfaces now and again but without his appeal, J.Bishop is a total loss every time she gives that smug smile and opens her mouth, Nelson, well Nelson turns whatever way the wind blows, he who never ever voted liberal in his life, how can anyone take him seriously? and Turnbull–at the moment, the pick of them all, is a walking ego who cant see past his own reflection, trying to emulate Rudd by giving his xmas address from a helping hand centre {as if anyone would swallow thats where he spends his spare time} was the last straw, so who next?

  38. At the cricket they had a phone poll “should Warne run for PM” It went from 50/50 to 62/38 and Kev commentating at the time said gee his numbers hadn’t been that bad in a long time, said he was getting worried. Warne told him he had nothing to worry about and he was doing a great job as PM. Warne a bit embarrassed I think said he had no experience and wouldn’t have a clue. Kev told him it was all in the wrist.
    And no Kev wasn’t decked out in a green and gold tracksuit! Thank goodness!

  39. This may be silly but maybe the Liberals need to go for someone completely new, maybe switch Sentator Paynes to the Reps and combine her with a Bruce Billson

    Workchoices is the gift that keeps giving!

  40. 93 mexicanbeemer – I realise you’re looking at worse case scenario and don’t believe it will happen but even in the unlikely event it does I doubt very much people will believe the Libs will do a better job. Labor will not just sit back and let that happen.
    I read up to the comparison with Scullin. There really is no comparison. Different times, different strategies being adopted, different communications and totally different leader and government. Sorry, that really doesn’t cut the mustard as far as I’m concerned.
    I think too you overlook the scare campaign that Labor can throw at the Libs next election. Try Workchoices mark 2, further loss of conditions and certainty, in a time of high unemployment. The Libs are going to have to go into the next election with policies. What will their IR and ETS policies be? How will they be different to Labors? What further action will Rudd have taken to stem unemployment? Action will be appreciated even by those who have lost their jobs. It’s no action that is the killer.

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