Morgan: 60-40

It’s looking a very merry Christmas for pensioners and families and, not unrelatedly, the Rudd government, which has added a further 1 per cent to its already formidable two-party lead in a Christmas eve Morgan face-to-face poll. Curiously, the Greens are down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent in a survey conducted half before and half after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement of December 15. The slack has been taken up by a spike in the Labor primary vote from 48.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent, their best result in almost seven months. The Coalition primary vote is also up slightly, from 34.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent.

Morgan also produced two sets of leadership ratings last week, one comparing Rudd to Turnbull and the other comparing them both with their party colleagues. Rudd’s approval rating was up four points from the previous survey of October 15-16 to 68 per cent, while his lead over Turnbull as preferred prime minister had blown out from 62.5-24 to 69-20. Worringly for Turnbull, his approval rating was down 13 per cent to 42 per cent while his disapproval was up from 24 per cent to 37.5 per cent, a much sharper turnaround than recorded by Newspoll over the same period (from 50-25 to 47-32). The preferred Labor leader results turned up no surprises, but the Liberal ratings interestingly found Turnbull tied with Peter Costello on 28 per cent. This compared with Costello’s lead of 31 per cent to 20 per cent in the previous such survey of September 10-11, when Brendan Nelson was still leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

391 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  1. Rmarkable Labor 52.5 , but as said earlier Greens at 6% seems hard to believ is so low and don’t feel it is What is not indispute is adding th 2 Partys together (no matter how breakup) and thats 58.5%….a lovely xmas presi for Rudd , and on that note hope all PBers enjoy happy tomorrow , and they & familys remain in good health , with hope of a better world in 2009 especialy for those less fortunate everywhere

  2. It’s looking a very merry Christmas for pensioners and families

    And retailers apparently. I’ve heard differing reports from various sectors, but most are claiming increases of between 7-12% above the 2007 Christmas period. OTOH, reports out of the UK are saying sales are down over 2% there, and I’m guessing it’s even worse in America.

    So it looks like the pensioners didn’t blow all their $1,400 on the pokies and demon drink earlier this month. Nor, as far as I can judge, have they been raping and pillaging their neighbours or engaged in any of the other aberrant behaviour the Libs were warning us about. Seems they don’t know their key demographic as well as they thought!

  3. Onya, William. Well, it’s got to be a world of pain for the Rainmaker and the Libs.. I also find the Green vote puzzling, to say the least.
    Zombie M, they haven’t got anyone who can unify them. We’ve been through all the ‘usual suspects’ before, and who have they got who’s even vaguely credible? Mind you, that won’t stop them from crucifying him, or otherwise offing him politically, if the polls keep going this way. I had a squizz at Possum’s site before, and apart from a blip when the Rainmaker was made Leader of Her Maj’s Loyal etc., Labor has been consolidating and the Coalition going backwards. Easter? Who knows?

  4. We’ll have to leave the prognostications for 2009 until New Year’s Eve but I’m feeling more confident in my prediction that Cossie will lead the Libs to the next election loss. πŸ˜€

    With so much noise from the Christmas bonus and only half the poll after the ETS announcement, I don’t know what it means about the electorates thoughts on CC but it can’t be too bad.

    On the other hand, it’s all bad for Turnbull. Why does his genius continue to go unrecognised by the electorate? πŸ˜‰

  5. [We’ll have to leave the prognostications for 2009 until New Year’s Eve but I’m feeling more confident in my prediction that Cossie will lead the Libs to the next election loss.]

    What cheer! πŸ˜€

  6. Ho Ho Ho

    I am sure Bob Brown shaking the hands of those who think civil disobedience is a way to achieve anything cost the Greens a point or two.

    Especially when Saint Kev is giving a sermon. πŸ˜‰

    Merry Chrissy Bludgers.

  7. I have been doing a little work for sT Vinnies over the last couple of weeks. From conversations from our “customers” who are extremely gratefull to Rudd for his generosity these results dont come as a surprise.

    Happy Christmas to all PollBludgers and all the best for the New Year. Especially best wishes to William. He should be nominated for Australian of the Year!

  8. ruawake, you’re not seriously reading in to a MINOR party’s primary vote shift in a MORGAN poll are you?

    Do you believe in santa too? πŸ˜€

  9. wow! a busy holiday period in the offing for truffles trying to resurect himself, he’ll need a team of navvies to dig him out of this hole, and add my puzzlement on the greens pollling to that alrady expressed, curious… merry christmas everbody!

  10. I hope the Liberals have a policy to privatise Australia Post….

    I sent a christmas present to my dear old Mum a week ago and it hasnt arrived in Perth?

    I hope many a postal worker is sacked in the Recession to come.

    BTW Polls in December (Who Cares?) also it’s Morgan (Who Cares?)!

  11. US economy expected to tank 6 PER CENT in the final quarter of the year!! I seem to recall that in the 1929 crash the US industry contracted by 45% in three years and GDP dropped by 25% or so.

    [Conditions are expected to get much worse before they get better, with the economy predicted to shrink by as much as 6 percent in the fourth quarter and keep declining for the next six months before a tepid recovery takes hold later in 2009.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2353027420081224?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

  12. [I hope many a postal worker is sacked in the Recession to come.]

    Glen, continuing the myth that a recession will make more people likely to vote Liberal are we? Dream on. Liberals are never voted in when things are tough for a number of very good reasons. Where you get such weird concepts is one of the unsolved mysteries of 2008.

  13. [BTW Polls in December (Who Cares?) also it’s Morgan (Who Cares?)!]

    Glen, your Coalition buddies still haven’t accepted the November ’07 poll neither πŸ˜‰

    Tom.

  14. Glen, I was shocked to read that you thought that postal workers should be sacked, because your Mum hadn’t yet received her present. Why is it your automatic assumption that it is the fault of the workers? Surely, the GFC would have given you some cause for pause? You know, CEOs taking bloated amounts of money as recompense for ruining the company, and leaving the employees with nothing?

  15. Merry Christmas, fellow pollbludgers. The poll looks great, even if it is only Morgan. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your pov) I’ve had a little too much champagne to comment further.

    Why are we even here? Oh yeah, tragics! πŸ™

    Enjoy tomorrow.

  16. On behalf of him indoors, he goes through these times when he hates all of us, with a passion. We, however, understand that you’d get a bit miffed, being a spouse. And also, he likes the stuff I can tell him from youse guys. Night from me, and a sort of grumpy Seasons Greetings from him indoors.

  17. my christmas present was that a suppression order on a certain person up on charges of paedophilia was lifted and he was named and shamed, he also has to pay the newspaper’s costs $50,000. i believe, another one Storen, is spending xmas in an indonesion jail, again on a paedophilia conviction, one by one they fall, if this is all we can get them on i can live with that, the police had my family do a 1/2 hour ch 9 TV crime stoppers special two weeks ago to be shown in febuary, every little bit helps, i wont go near the court as the local case is heard, i dont want anything to be published that could give cause for a mistrial, but i will go for sentencing if he is found guilty, have a good xmas everyone.

  18. i’ve just done the family thing watching the grandies open their loot at 6am, having pancakes with older ones until 11 30 doling out my famous trifles and fruit platters to each family and now the day is mine to laze away, we have our big xmas meal and get together on xmas eve, that way the family can spread out to the inlaws without worryingm xmas mornings are always spent together though.

  19. Well a post lunch merry christmas to every one. I just snuck a look at Poll Bludger and look what Santa left – Labor 60/40 2PP! πŸ™‚ Thanks Santa! I don’t think the minor party % means much, but the trend is all good.

    William you are a good elf, keeping all the bludgers happy πŸ˜‰

    CC aside I am glad the bonus payment appears to have been working. It was good social policy and good economics to give it to those most in need and most likely to spend it. If it keeps the country out of recession and stops people losing their jobs it will be worth every penny.

    Happy holiday to everyone. Now if Hayden can just score some runs…

  20. [Auxililary Catholic Bishop of Canberra and Goulburn Pat Power says the Pope’s comments on homosexuality have hurt the gay and lesbian community. Pope Benedict said that saving humanity from homosexual behaviour was just as important as saving rainforests.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/24/2454491.htm?section=justin

    To me the only sour note of this Xmas has been the stupid comment from the equally stupid Pope.

    I was watching the Pope making his pronouncement in a roomful of his Cardinals and Bishops, must be at least 200-300 men. i cant help but thinking how many of these men are homosexual or have suppressed homosexual tendency. I wonder also if the Pope thinks homosexually is worse than abusing young boys which many of his priests have been caught doing.

  21. [my christmas present was that a suppression order on a certain person up on charges of paedophilia was lifted and he was named and shamed,]

    Good on you Judith, the less secure these creatures feel the less likely they are to prey on the young.

  22. Judith

    I heard that and thought of you. It’s great news. His name has certainly been very unfavourably mentioned for as long as I can remember in Adelaide. There’s a great saying (Hindu I think) which The Drones used as the title of their most famous album;

    [Wait Long By The River And The Bodies Of Your Enemies Will Float By]

    It’s got my favourite Australian song of the last decade, Shark Fin Blues.

    http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=ljxw1YuUKIU&feature=related

  23. The Finnigins – I’m just dying to know your reaction if I were to argue that Mohamed was a pedophile because he married a seven year old.

  24. Steve says:
    “Glen, continuing the myth that a recession will make more people likely to vote Liberal are we? Dream on. Liberals are never voted in when things are tough for a number of very good reasons. Where you get such weird concepts is one of the unsolved mysteries of 2008”.

    Right, Mr Brilliance – ask Jeff Kennett and soon to be NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell.

  25. I’ll get in before Adam, Finns, Ron and GG do: Hillary’s approval rating would have been 85%.

    [BARACK Obama is riding the crest of the best approval ratings of any president-elect in decades, a new poll shows as the next US leader relaxed on his Hawaii Christmas vacation.

    Less than a month before Mr Obama takes office in the teeth of the worst economic slump since the 1930s, a CNN/Opinion Research survey found 82 per cent of Americans approve of how he is handling his transition to power.]

    Obama most popular new US president
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24841894-601,00.html

  26. “Pope Benedict said that saving humanity from homosexual behaviour was just as important as saving rainforests.

    Not that it matters, but his interest int he subject does make you wonder, you know what I mean.

  27. fredn, i’m not going to argue with you mate, yes it is for the courts to decide, BUT there is a lot more to this person that any jury will be allowed to know, things that are perhaps not relevant to his current case, time will tell and if he IS found guilty i will be over the moon though the charges have nothing to do with me, if not the fact that at long last he has been named publically to me is a good step forward, i dont intend to debate his case here–it’s not appropiate especially being sub judice, my concerns have very little to do with his current case except it establishes a trend in that period of time, i was perhaps very wrong mentioning it on a political thread, if so i apologise, it’s just that a few people here know who i am and i sometimes keep them up to date on whats going on.

  28. Jubith

    The court system is a two edge sword, we don’t have to fight our own battles, but we do have to live by the rule, don’t seek your own revenge. It may be a messy system but it sure beats shotguns at twenty paces.

  29. Patrick Fogarty

    I’d just like to know your reaction if I argued Mary was a really good talker given she convinced Joesph that god and not the postman was the farther.

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