Morgan: 59.5-40.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has not replicated the Newspoll bounce, but that’s cold comfort for the Coalition as they still trail 59.5-40.5, unchanged from last time. The Greens are up three points on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 50.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and the Coalition is down from 35.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent.

We also have Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group. The outstanding features is a picture of relative Labor weakness in New South Wales, consistent with the theme that the state government is damaging their brand there. Charts galore from Possum.

In other news, 65-year-old back-bencher Philip Ruddock has made the surprise announcement that he plans to run again in his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Berowra. However, he seems in some danger of being blasted out by the state party’s vigorous Right faction, which did so much to contribute to the party’s success at the last election.

UPDATE: By popular demand, here’s a chart showing how Labor’s two-party vote has tracked across Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research this year. I only have figures going back to June for Essential, and have generally only used every second poll for Morgan and Essential to keep the figures concurrent with Newspoll. Alternatively, you could just look at Possum’s chart dump, which includes ACNielsen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

923 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

Comments Page 15 of 19
1 … 14 15 16 … 19

  1. vera

    Penny Wong doesn’t come across as someone who would ever need protecting. I think she’s catch the boot and throw it back!

    Oz

    Rudd can afford a weakish target and just lose a few seats to the Greens in the Senate, with the Libs losing just as many probably. He’d have to really wimp out, say with a 5% target, to put any Reps seats in the firing line of The Greens.

  3. Nah, Diogenes I disagree. A lot of Australians seem to be pretty cluey about climate change and we need to do. Anything less than 20% will be seen as a cop out and less than 15% will be the clincher. If people won’t change their vote for <15% then they won’t at all.

  4. Diogenes, you made me laugh, I got a picture of Penny at the Press Club chucking boots and hitting the Poision Dwarf in the head. lol.

  5. What’s the bet there will be a shoe throwing maniac at the next Rudd public appearance?

    The Young Libs are organising a spontaneous act of frustration and contempt as we speak ….

  6. [Diogenes, you made me laugh, I got a picture of Penny at the Press Club chucking boots and hitting the Poision Dwarf in the head. lol.]

    What a dream that would be! 😀

  7. [What’s the bet there will be a shoe throwing maniac at the next Rudd public appearance?]

    Shoe throwing could be the new pie chucking…

  9. “I normally hate being w ron g”

    You’re gonna hav to stop hating yourself , and everyday You ar wrong…..again

    Today should see detail announsement of RET scheme from July 2009 and ETS from July 2010 , and high “indicative” targets with some linkage to Copenhapen meeting late next year

    “I disagree with Adam when he says that the first year in Opposition should be a policy free zone”

    You ar wrong…..again Oppositions after long Govt periods usualy hav changed Leaders , factions open & ar policyed out , first year is how come we lost & squabble

    “today will be a defining day for the LNP.”
    You ar wrong…..again LCP only ‘policy’ will be wait on rest of world and copy them In time they’ll refine tht abit , but not enough for mine

  10. [Hopefully the security people beat the living sht out of this fool!]

    Are you just stirring the possum? Or are you really advocating cruel and unusual punishment for what even Bush described as a free expression of opinion?

  12. I agree with Dio; hard to believe Rudd would want to take the replies if he thought the target would draw a lot of fire. Ministers can be sacrificed but PMs less so. That makes me think recent rumours have just been expectations management to make sure that nobody is dissappointed with 20-25% and would have demanded 40%.

  13. I see its a slow morning!! Look today the biggest loser will be the Greens for from this moment forward the debate will be about the Government having a target and bring all together to make it happen, from that the issue will come down to the economic costs and the associated socal impact of increased energy bills.

    Today PM Rudd will be fronting the press club for he knows that its these times that will make outbreak his Government and with due respect to Sentator Wong he is the leader and knows that the next election could well be decided by this very issue.

    Today the Greens are on a hiding to nothing for they will have a choice to offer support or do there normal routine of opposing and if they choose to oppose then the question will need asking just what planet are they on!

    The Liberals are in a similar position to the Greens except they are more known for having an economic platform.

  14. Plausible scenario, Socrates.

    Mexicanbeemer your post only makes sense if you replace every instance of the word “Greens” with “Liberals”.

  15. Oz!! Rudd has already wedged the Liberals over his thus far successful handling of the GFC, the Liberals have no credibility when it comes to climate change.

    This debate will only help the Liberals if the Government makes a mess of the policy and it causes massive job loses and excessive increases in power bills.

    I suspect the Governemnt if its performance with the GFC is anything to go by shoudl be able to get the balance right, that that turns out to be correct then its the Greens that could find themselves wedged.

  17. mexicanbeemer, The Greens aren’t going to get “wedged”. Part of the reason (if not a significant part) of any potential higher targets is because the Government knows they need The Greens in the Senate.

    [Anything to stop the buggers from taking their clothes off again.]

    Well said! Nothing will stop them now it’s summer =(

  18. [LOW-INCOME households and pensioners could be given a free set-top box to convert analog TVs to receive a digital signal as the Federal Government gears up for the biggest changeover since the introduction of decimal currency.]

    Unless they give them a new roof antenna as well, this whole thing is going to get ugly. Digital TV reception is shocking in plenty of areas. At least with analog you could still get a picture with a crap signal (albeit snowy). With a bad digital signal you just get nothing.

  19. Oz!! that is true the ALP need the Greens and that is the wedge for if the Greens want to remain in control of the Senate they will need to play with the Government or play against the Government.

    Do my eyes deceive me but has Senator Steven Conroy actually looks like something right!!

  21. [Unless they give them a new roof antenna as well]
    Dario the answer might well be yes
    [He said he favoured the British approach, where pensioners and low-income households were given assistance. “They’ve done it region by region, they’ve provided boxes, assisted people with installation and even had people changing antennas if necessary.”]

  22. It might be very good politics for the government to acknowledge that the target had been revised after talking to the Greens and that the financial impact would be less than the bonus payment already given to families…

  23. I’m literally counting down the minutes till 12:30.

    Do we want to talk about how Rudd’s going to convince Fielding and Xenophon? Or is that too much of a headache.

  24. Ron

    What ETS target will you be happy with today?

    On the other two points, I realise that the first year in Opposition is usually navel gazing but I think they should come up with a policy or two, just to show they are relevant and doing something. And I also realise the LNP will have nothing except wait for the rest of the world but today they will be shown to have let the rest of the world pass them by.

  25. The issue of the polcy V politics of the debate will be played out over the next few months and years and today is a day that the ALP can either own the climate change debate or make a mess of it

  26. Look, regarding policy vacuums and being in Opposition, in normal circumstances I would agree with Ron. But this is not a normal circumstance.

    Accuse me of hyperbole if you wish, but this is akin too the Opposition not having a policy when it came to Vietnam, for example. It’s an extremely important issue and it’s extremely important that the Opposition party in this country do something credible for the benefit of all Australians.

  27. I previously said that I expected a 15% outcome, only going to 20% if other countries came on board. I would have been dissapointed at that but not surprised in the current financial environment. However after reading a few things over the weekend I am more optimistic. The current downturn will make it easier to meet targets, because exponential growth in emissions in developing markets and our own resources sector is slowing down. They are large contributors to our total emissions. Hence I woudl say we shoudl commit to 20%; going up to 25% when other nations come on board. That would be affordable and achievable IMO.

  28. Mr X is a climate change pragmatist. I can’t see him not supporting a reasonable target. Dunno about Fielding.

    [“To the skeptics I say that one of the best comments I heard was from Rupert Murdoch, who said that even if you accept there’s only a 30 per cent chance of global warming then you must, from a risk-management point of view, do everything possible to avoid that happening. Even if it was a 1 per cent chance that we could face catastrophic consequences of global warming, we need from a risk-management approach to prevent that from happening.” ]

  29. [Dario the answer might well be yes]

    I think it will have to be. The sheer ‘sprawl’ of the major cities in Australia means that new digital-specific antennas are going to be the only option for a very large section of the population.

  30. Telstra a such a joke. They lodged a non-compliant bis from the start. Imaging how much bleating they would have been doing if one of the other bidders had done the same.

  32. Rudd is supposed to be in Kununurra today too. busy boy.
    [Residents of Kununurra in far north Western Australia say they’re overjoyed about the Federal Government’s plan to spend $195 million on expanding the region’s irrigation scheme and improving infrastructure in the town.
    The Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, is announcing details in Kununurra today.
    Veteran Ord Valley grower, Robert Boshammer, says he’d given up on this day ever happening.
    “This isn’t really an irrigation development project, it’s a community-building project and to say it’s money going in to subsidise an industry is a bit silly,” he says.
    “It’s really giving this community a chance to get ahead and also let other people in Australia see this vision.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/200812/s2446359.htm

  36. Wait a minute , Telstra reely put in a non bid …ie bid conditonal on Telstra not being broken up Now th Libs made no decision on th whole tele issue because of that blackmail Conroy/Govt called Telstra’s buff

  38. [Gee someone should get that senator Conroy a beer]

    As Conroy’s spokesman pointed out, the decision came from the independent expert panel.

  39. I agree its a welcome improvement from Sen Conroy. Telstra will never reform if they think they can keep holding the govenrment hostage.

  40. Oz

    Sounds like they picked an independant panel that was actually independant! Still, there have been times in the past when such advice has been ignored as too difficult, so its still good to see the decision made and announced on its merits.

  42. As an opposition how can they credibly criticise the government’s policy and argue a case against it if they don’t have a policy themselves? When I hear the opposition spokesperson arguing against the government’s policy I invariably find myself asking, “Well, what would you do?” I still don’t know what they believe the solution to anything is.

  43. Gary

    Yes if you didn’t know better you would think they had governed for 11 years based on nothing more than political expediency, some anti-union ideology, and the results of a few focus groups.

  44. What Rudd is faced with today is politics , policy , Garnaut recom of initial 10% and Coppenhaggen Everyones gonna concentrate on one figure , a target when reel ballgame is other 2 matters i mentioned in #708 , nanouncintg RET and ETS dates

    now EU ar only econamic block fair dinkum , plus Japan Forget rest Riussia , obama , China and India (but later 2 will ove if (rightly treated as dev Countrys with initial concessions) EU target is 20% so talking plus 25% that Greens will do is stupid

    I expect Rudd to balanse those 4 factors in first para , with indicative targets nexus to coppenhaggen , with upper limit of 15 to 20% , plus a committment not withstanding…but do not forgot substanse in blogs today.. RET and ETS Thats th reel oil for CC that Greens and Libs dare not practicol detail address linked to outcomes , and will not

    You guys ar not listening to th Oppositions policy , they do hav one….agree with Coppenhappen late 2009 , lets not be in front of World to our econamic peril , but they know Coppenhaggen late 2009 is unlikely to be target tough or date binding…so they do hav a policy …just thats its no good

  47. [Walked past TV on ABC news just now and thought i heard them say target is to start at 5%? has there been an announcement allready?]

    No, that’s still speculation I think

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 15 of 19
1 … 14 15 16 … 19