Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (which gets its own thread in Newspoll off-weeks when there’s no Galaxy poll on the Sunday) has Labor recovering from an unheralded dip over the past fortnight, its two-party lead increasing from 56-44 to 58-42. Also featured are questions on leadership preference, which find Julia Gillard favoured over Malcolm Turnbull 39 per cent to 34 per cent and Kevin Rudd favoured over Gillard 63 per cent to 14 per cent, and expectations regarding the economy.

UPDATE (2/12/08): Today’s Courier-Mail provides further figures from yesterday’s Galaxy poll of 800 voters in Queensland, showing 38 per cent would like to go back to John Howard and Peter Costello, against 54 per cent preferring Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

706 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. [Triple M do stream, so that is one way of listening.]
    Yeah, but not terribly convenient.

    Hopefully they do a full podcast – excluding songs and other copyrighted material of course.

    Even if they leave a few ads in that wouldn’t bother me. I don’t mind watching Chevy adverts so I can see The Daily Show for free.

  3. The government should ask Fielding in the Senate which schools he has been talking too. If one were a suspicious type about who funded Fielding in the first place, you might suspect that it is a small group of Christian fringe schools run by a rightwing nutbar sect. Journalists should pursue Fielding on this. Why block $28 Billion of funding over curriculum when it has been signed off by all the other mainstream church schools? Its time Fielding’s looney right links were exposed.

  7. BTW somenoe posted earleir today about the $320K the exclusive Brethren donated to the Liberal party and asked what they receivd in return. While I can prove no causal link, they do receive quite a bit from Commonwealth and State education funding for their schools – $3.1 million to be exact according to this article:
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brethrens-qld-schools-gain-3m/2008/10/19/1224351016688.html

    These are the sorts of small schools receiving large funds that the current education amendments are aimed at. Fielding must be pursued if he is going to try to defend tis sort of thing. His “clean image” will soon start to smell.

  8. Further to the above, the school mentioned, the Agnew School i Queensland, had 256 students. Thats about $12000 per annum per student!! More than many courses uni HECS per year. Where does it go?

  9. lateline
    mesma v sayles
    cat v kitten
    much teeth clenching and forced smiles from cat
    but kitten takes the points
    (my word she’s an uncomfortable teev view that mesma).

  10. [Thats about $12000 per annum per student!! More than many courses uni HECS per year. Where does it go?]
    Real estate investments most likely.

  11. Jesus wept… They’re both idiots

    MP slammed for selling photos of petrol doused protester

    A Labor MP has apologised for taking a photograph of a protester who threatened to set himself alight outside federal parliament and giving it to the media.——
    Labor MP for Dawson, north Queensland, James Bidgood, who appeared upset, admitted taking the photographs and passing them onto News Limited.

    He said he handed over the photos in exchange for a donation to charity connected to disabilities.

    “My actions were highly insensitive and inappropriate and I am tonight writing a letter of apology to the family involved,” Mr Bidgood told parliament on Wednesday.

    I’ve cut/pasted a couple of differant bits there… but the gist remains intact

    All of em (yes, I’m including the guy with the petrol and lighter) are complete idiots

    You’d think the non desperate would know better – wait….. 😉

    http://livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/12/03/Man_douses_himself_with_petrol_outside_Parliament_House

  12. Journalist: Are you worried that intelligent design may not pass muster?

    Fielding: Look, that’s got nothing to do with it. This is about – and this is a genuine issue…

    And there you have the cat out of the bag, ladies and gentlemen.

    This useless hypocrite does not believe in intelligent design.Whether or not it “passes muster” has nothing to do with what he is about. That is not a genuine issue to him.

    But currying favour with the Looney Religious Right is.

    The genuine issue to Fielding is Fielding.

  13. [You’d think the non desperate would know better – wait….. ;)]
    The saddest thing is the guy did it for no real reason. He and his family are permanent residents who are not going to be kicked from the country.

    In fact his parents are eligible to apply for citizenship.

  14. [But currying favour with the Looney Religious Right is.

    The genuine issue to Fielding is Fielding.]
    I wonder if Family First disendorse him before the next election?

    Do they really want him at #1 on their Victorian ticket?

  16. [Apart from a standard empathy of the (I prefer people don’t hurt themselves kind) I have zero sympathy for that guy.]
    Well, I have sympathy for him on the grounds that he is obviously mentally ill has made two public attempts at self harm in the last week.

  17. I wonder whether Fielding conducted and prepared his own “Family Impact Statement” before deciding how his “conscience” would allow him to vote on the private school funding issue.

    I’m sure the probably 95% plus of non Government school parents and children represented by the two private school industry captains who stood shoulder to shoulder with Gillard on the issue today constitute “families” of some sort or other?.

    Or, like Howard, is the well being of his own family on the public teat the only “family” the otherwise unemployable Fielding cares about?

  19. [A cry for help – maybe (A stunt) more likely]
    Well, Senator Evans – the minister for immigration – reported to the Senate that his family has been offered mental health assistance previous to today’s events.

  21. The Australian reports that Terry Hicks unexpectedly met John Howard for the first time yesterday at an art function to which they were both invited.

    Mr Hicks politely shook the former Prime minister’s hand and exchanged pleasantries with him before moving on.

    After what that man has been put through at the hands of Mr. Howard and his Government, his magnanimity is truly humbling.

  22. William,

    3903 out of 2.9 million is the final count …..

    [
    JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) — –

    Missouri as the prognosticator of presidential winners is no more.
    Official election returns certified Tuesday by the secretary of state’s office show that Republican John McCain eked out victory in the state’s closest presidential election in a century.
    McCain won by 3,903 votes out of more than 2.9 million cast, which amounts to a 0.13 percentage point win over President-elect Barack Obama.
    Obama becomes just the second president in more than 100 years to take office without winning Missouri. The last time Missouri had not voted for the presidential winner was in 1956.
    Members of the Electoral College meet across the nation on Dec. 15 to cast their presidential ballots. Missouri’s members will meet in the state Capitol.
    ]

  24. I shoudl declare a bias on this one because I know some of teh people involved. Still, if this report in The Age is correct I think this is excellent news for Melbourne:
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/city-transport-plan-revealed-20081203-6qnt.html

    They are going ahead with a badly needed rail tunnel in the Melbourne CBD and some outer ring roads, but not the cross city road tunnel. From both a transport and environmental viewpoint I think this is a good decision. If this is where some of Rudd’s infrastructure money goes it won’t be wasted. We can only hope Sydney does something equally sensible.

  25. Well Glen, if you tell a lie long enough, often enough and loud enough, you must hope people will believe you? I remain skeptical that Mr Howard was Hick’s benefactor.

  27. Lucky Melbourne!

    The proposals from the City of Sydney council to the Building Australia infrastructure fund include a couple of light rail loops in new urban growth areas and in the city. It’d be very nice if they got off the ground, though maybe I only say that because it’ll mean light rail from my doorstep to the city.

  28. [OTTAWA — The separatist Bloc Québécois was part of secret plotting in 2000 to join a formal coalition with the two parties that now make up Stephen Harper’s government, according to documents obtained by The Globe and Mail.

    The scheme, designed to propel current Conservative minister Stockwell Day to power, undermines the Harper government’s line this week that it would never sign a deal like the current one between the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Bloc.]

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081203.wquebec1203/BNStory/National/home

    I don’t see how they can have any credibility after this.

  29. Oz @ 628,

    Power is a highly desirable aphrodisiac and some people will do virtually anything, compromise any principle to achieve and retain it. Classic example, JWH. Harper is Canada’s version of Howard.

  31. Oz it undermines nothing…the Canadian Alliance then merged with the PC Party and turned into the Conservatives…

    Harpers line that the Conservative Party of Canada would never sign any documents to give the Bloc such power is clearly true…because the CPC has never done such a thing since it has been in existance.

    Oz every PM in Canadian history has had to face the people…Dion wouldnt have to until 2010 or 2011…if you wanted to form a Coalition with the NDP and Bloc he should have taken that to the Canadian people in the last election in 2008 he didnt…hence he’s a liar and a fraud and after being thumped in the election Dion is trying to do anything to become PM.

    Dion has got NO mandate to form a Coalition Government with the Bloc and NDP, he told the people he would never do such a thing and now he is…therefore if he is so certain this is backed by the people of Canada he must therefore support another poll…

  32. [Harpers line that the Conservative Party of Canada would never sign any documents to give the Bloc such power is clearly true…because the CPC has never done such a thing since it has been in existance.]

    Oh come on Glen. It’s a clear case of “If the Bloc works with us, they’re good. If they don’t, they’re bad”.

  37. [Now Canadians will turn their TVs off and not watch the Dion and Layton Show.]

    I don’t know about that. More of them want change and want the coalition to immediately take power than want the Conservatives to remain in power, according to the latest poll.

  41. An education insider tells me that one of the reasons the Libs are against the Govts Education bill is that there is a ranking system of sorts involved. Many of the more expensive and exclusive schools dont want to advertise that their results are no better than, and often worse than the much cheaper public options. In straitened financial times, that wouldnt be a good thing when trying to seperate parents from $15k plus in fees.

  42. Melbourne does not need another tunnel through the city. It needs suburban extensions and a comparatively minor works in the inner city to allow the current inner city system to reach its true capacity of 192 trains per hour which it it currently no where near.

    Building the tunnel would tie up the money for much needed suburban extensions like Doncaster and Rowville for a generation like the city loop did.

  43. [In straitened financial times, that wouldnt be a good thing when trying to seperate parents from $15k plus in fees]

    Aint the ‘free market’ a bitch

  44. Just a reminder that the Libs and their lies and scaremongering about “boatpeople” hasn’t changed with Howards sacking. They are still the nasty, hatefull racist pack of (rude word omitted) who would have no compunction of manufacturing another “children overboard” if it got them a few votes.
    It isn’t hard to “maintain the rage” against this loathsome lot.

    Article from: The Australian
    [ACCORDING to Opposition immigration spokeswoman Sharman Stone, there has been an “incredible spike” in boat people trying to get to Australia.

    It is a comment that betrays a hankering for the good old days, when the Coalition was in office and the politics was easy: whip up a bit of fear about being swamped by refugees, demonise them as terrorists and watch the votes come in. Stone argued on radio on Monday that Immigration Minister Chris Evans had given “quite a bit of encouragement” to people smugglers, particularly with his announcement of the abolition of temporary protection visas and that is why the spike had occurred since August.

    Kevin Rudd lent some perspective to this argument by telling parliament there had been four boatloads of people with 48 passengers this year, compared with 148 on five boats last year. That was before yesterday’s announcement of another 35 passengers to be transferred to Christmas Island. That makes 83 people this year. Some spike.]
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24747366-7583,00.html

  45. [An education insider tells me that one of the reasons the Libs are against the Govts Education bill is that there is a ranking system of sorts involved.]
    They’ve caved in and will support it in the Senate without amendments.

  47. Tom

    The trouble is (for both Sydney and Melbourne) that the track capacity problems are in the city. They can’t run any more trains on existing lines, let alone extensions, without more capacity in the point where the trains are going to (the CBD).

  48. [They’ve caved in and will support it in the Senate without amendments]

    They have or they will?? I can’t find anything saying they (or Fielding) have caved in.

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