US election live

10.48pm. Oregon Senate race still close: Republican incumbent Gordon Smith leads Democrat Jeff Merkley 47.7 per cent to 46.7 per cent with 74 per cent of precincts reporting. Coleman now leads Franken by 676 votes (0.02 per cent) with 99.9 per cent reporting.

9.25pm. An extra 0.3 per cent of precincts in Minnesota have widened Coleman’s lead to 2591.

8.45pm. Norm Coleman back ahead of Franken in Minnesota – by 490 votes, with 98.7 per cent reporting.

7.54pm. Al Franken seizes a late lead for the Minnesota Senate (188,073 to 185,786) with 98 per cent reporting.

7.45pm. All precincts reporting from Missouri, and McCain leads 1,442,577 to 1,436,724. Possum writes in comments that there are not enough contested votes to cover the gap.

6.29pm. MSNBC calls Indiana for Obama. Only Missouri and North Carolina still outstanding.

6.26pm. Missouri has gone right back down to the wire with 0.7 per cent still to report: McCain 1,426,779, Obama 1,426,381.

6.06pm. With all precincts reporting, Obama leads in North Carolina by 12,160 votes out of over 4.2 million (0.2 per cent cent).

5.57pm. Earlier chat suggested Republican Senator Ted Stevens was dead meat in Alaska, but he leads 49.4-45.4 with 37 per cent reporting. Partial counts can be misleading though.

5.50pm. Back to lineball in Minnesota Senate. Analyst on Fox News says outstanding precincts are likely to favour Republican incumbent Norm Coleman over Al Franken.

5.16pm. McCain hanging on to his slender lead in Missouri, which is looming as my only wrong call.

5.11pm. McCain now ahead in Montana.

5.00pm. Al Franken continuing to fade in Minnesota Senate – probably gone now.

4.46pm. Obama’s lead in Montana rapidly evaporating as the count proceeds to 51 per cent.

4.36pm. Ohio still quite tight: Obama leads 50.0-48.4 with 72 per cent reporting.

4.31pm. Oregon Senate race has tightened up considerably: within 1 per cent now.

4.11pm. My reading of the Senate: Democrats to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska (no actual votes yet from the latter) – or eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota, where he trails by 0.8 per cent with 53 per cent counted.

4.09pm. Norm Coleman now leads Al Franken by 0.8 per cent for Minnesota Senate.

4.07pm. Obama now with a relatively handy 0.6 per cent lead in North Carolina.

3.55pm. Obama back in front in North Carolina, but not going to win Missouri. I’ve only just noticed he’s looking a surprise winner in Montana, although with only 24 per cent counted.

3.32pm. Correct me if I’m wrong here somebody, but the Democrats stand to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska – eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota.

3.17pm. McCain concedes defeat.

3.14pm. Close as close can be between Norm Coleman and Al Franken for Minnesota Senate.

3.10pm. Fox reports Roger Wicker holds Mississippi Senate seat for the Republicans, ending the chances of a Democrat supermajority.

2.59pm. CNN calls the election for Obama.

2.58pm. Obama takes the lead in Indiana.

2.54pm. McCain strengthening in North Carolina and Missouri.

2.51pm. Fox reports Virginia went 60-39 to McCain among white voters, but 92-8 among black voters.

2.42pm. McCain’s lead has vanished in Missouri: now 49.4-49.3.

2.41pm. Franken in fact leads Republican incumbent Norm Coleman 43-40.

2.40pm. Fox calls Virginia for Obama. Al Franken reportedly looking good for Minnesota Senate.

2.37pm. Obama leads in New Mexico 50.1-48.7 with less than half of dominant Bernalillo County reporting, where Obama is leading 57.3-41.5.

2.33pm. Crikey blog commenter Stuart: “Wilson and Franklin in North Carolina unreported. Wilson =44000 people total, 47% black. Franklin 2000 in total people 95% white. Looking good for O.”

2.32pm. McCain now narrowly ahead in North Carolina.

2.20pm. McCain leads by 12,839 in Indiana, but extrapolating unreported precincts from Lake County suggests Obama stands to gain over 22,000 votes.

2.18pm. Still tight in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, but Obama has a handy lead in each case with most precincts reporting. North Carolina his weakest of the three.

2.16pm. Missouri bouncing around the place, but McCain’s lead currently at 2.6 per cent.

2.12pm. McCain’s lead in Missouri reflating.

2.04pm. McCain’s lead in Missouri is narrowing.

2.01pm. Obama narrowly ahead in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia (in ascending order of narrowness).

1.59pm. Fox calls Iowa for Obama.

1.58pm. Obama takes the lead in Virginia.

1.50pm. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight calls the election for Obama.

1.47pm. CNN calls New Mexico for Obama.

1.33pm. Gap continues to close in Virginia, Obama now only 0.5 per cent behind.

1.25pm. McCain fairly well ahead in Missouri, but nobody’s calling it yet.

1.21pm. Discussion of Indiana on Fox: “central city plus rich suburbs” emerging as the “Obama alliance”, but rural areas holding relatively well for McCain.

1.17pm. Fox calls Ohio for Obama.

1.09pm. Nate Silver: “MSNBC and Fox call Georgia for McCain.”

1.00pm. Fox calls North Dakota for McCain.

12.46pm. Nate Silver on Virginia: “Obama is outperforming Kerry by a 12-15 point net in the Eastern half of the Virginia. In the Western half, he’s not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties. I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close.”

12.28pm. Heavily populated Florida counties Orange and Polk are swinging double digits to Obama, blowing away those weaker rural results I was mentioning earlier.

12.12pm. Possum says: “PA has gone Dem, VA has gone Dem – election over”. Adam Carr says: “It’s true that the FL panhandle hasn’t reported yet, but Obama is leading in Orlando and St Petersburg, which are GOP towns. You’d think he’ll win FL from here. Note also Obama’s 75% in Broward – the Jews stuck with Obama despite Lieberman’s defection.”

12.08pm. Discussing Virginia on CNN, confirming the impression that early reporting precincts are rural and we haven’t seen any black areas in the big cities come in. I’m only seeing slight swings to the Democrats in the rural areas.

11.53am. Swings I’m seeing in Florida are also below par: 4.0 per cent in Lake, 2.4 per cent in Manatee, 4.1 per cent in Pinellas. He needs 5.0 per cent.

11.45am. Another substantially reporting Virginia county, Augusta, swinging inadequately to Obama by 5.7 per cent. However, the cities and DC outskirts might tell a different story.

11.37am. Culpeper and Amherst counties in Viriginia swinging 5.1 and 1.8 per cent, against required swing of 8.3 per cent.

11.33am. Manatee County in Florida swinging 2.4 per cent to Democrat – statewide margin is 5.0 per cent.

11.26am. Double digit swings in more counties in Indiana (Clinton, Fayette), but Obama needs 20 per cent across the state.

11.21am. Chesterfield County in Virginia swings 8.9 per cent to Democrat with 94 per cent reporting – the statewide margin in 2004 was 8.2 per cent.

11.09am. Reasonably consistent swings in rural counties in Indiana of around 10 per cent – good, but well short of what Obama would need to win the state if consistent.

10.58am. Swing in Steuben County, Indiana with 68 per cent of precincts reporting is 8.9 per cent: well short of the 20 per cent needed to win the state.

10.52am. 69 per cent of precincts reporting in Vigo County, Indiana – Obama leads by 16 per cent. Bush carried it by 6.4 per cent in 2004 (I’ll be double-posting here on special occasions).

10am. Further efforts will be concentrated above.

4am AEDT. Rain and gusty winds in North Carolina, with rain extending into Virginia. Storms through the north-west, bringing snow to Nevada and Colorado. Weather otherwise very good: fine and warm in Florida and throughout the south, fine and mild through the north-east to the mid-west. You’ll next hear from me at around 9.30am AEDT.

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Washington 56.4 39.6 3322 11
Maine 56.5 40.5 2185 4
Minnesota 56.0 41.9 3270 10
Michigan 56.3 42.3 3232 17
New Mexico 57.0 43.2 3305 5
New Hampshire 54.9 41.9 3900 4
Iowa 54.1 41.6 3052 7
Wisconsin 53.3 42.3 3003 10
Colorado 54.8 44.7 3248 9
Pennsylvania 53.0 43.3 5479 21
Nevada 51.6 45.4 3168 5
Virginia 51.9 45.8 3382 13
Ohio 50.5 46.3 6490 20
Florida 49.9 46.8 5381 27
North Dakota 47.6 45.9 1706 3
Montana 48.6 47.6 3934 3
Missouri 49.8 48.8 3217 11
North Carolina 50.0 49.3 5582 15
Indiana 48.5 48.9 3834 11
Georgia 47.8 50.1 3248 15
West Virginia 43.9 54.3 3328 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 51.9 44.4 – 370 168

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,508 comments on “US election live”

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  3. Some early morning inspiration, particularly for my sister American, Julie, from Martin Luther King:

    “In the End, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.”

    No silence from our friends in here!

  5. jjulian do you have links to any of the Republican ones? Might be good for a laugh. Sometimes they’re fun to read so you can marvel at the way they think (almost like aliens)

  6. Intrade is Obama at 92.7, up 1.4 from yesterday, and yes on MO at 59% to predict the Electoral Vote will be 364. Much higher EV guesstimate than mine.

  7. Itep,

    To be honest, it never entered my mine. Sorry I can’t be more “fair and balanced”. Oh, wait, how about FoxNews—they might have a website.

  11. jj, here now, I’ve been lost on other websites 😀 …… also have the kids getting up shortly, I’m not doing TV at all until after I get them off to school as I promised them I wouldn’t interrupt their cartoons this morning …..

  13. you will like this one if you didn’t see it on the other thread (didn’t realize for awhile that this thread was open now)

    [
    juliem
    Posted Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 5:14 am | Permalink
    another voter testimonial ….

    My grandmother voted today. She is 86 years old. A white woman born to hardscrabble cattle ranchers in the most desolate part of New Mexico. Our ancestry goes back through West and East Texas, through Tennessee, the Cumberland Gap, and Virginia. This side of the family rode in the Texas 2nd Cavalry during the Civil War. A dark reminder for me of my family’s past, she still has receipts for slaves that our family owned. Her first husband was killed in the Battle of the Bulge, sacrificing his life like so many other young men. My mother was two months old at the time. My grandmother has voted Republican her entire life, but today she voted for Barack Obama.
    ]

  18. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com final prediction from Nate Silver is 353 EV, but NC only at 63%, so that would subtract 15 if it goes over to the dark side of the Force. His final probability of an Obama win is 99% with estimated margin of victory at 6%. I hope it is at or above Rudd’s 5.4% 2PP over Howard.

  22. jj, once the first returns are in, I will be in and out from the keyboard, mostly out. Since my tv and computer aren’t within visual distance of each other …. I will be making mad dashes back and forth, lightning raids as it were to the desktop computer …. rotten timing for the laptop to have crashed on Saturday morning 🙁 ….. I can hear the TV from where I am at present (if it were on) but I can’t see it.

  23. jj, will try again, wanted to remind you that I wouldn’t be on live with blogging here (once returns start coming in) but only quick dashes to the computer as my laptop died last Saturday. I can hear the TV from where I am at the moment but I can’t “see it”. So if I go silent at times, I haven’t disappeared …. { trying again as a previous attempt at this message with different words was caught up in the spam filter }

  25. to borrow one of your words, jj, jeepers …. this is my 3rd try at this message …..

    I will be watching TV once 10am rolls around and won’t be at the computer much. The only computer I have today is my desktop and it is not in the same room as the television.

    {William cancel the other two attempts at this message please thanks}

  27. Good luck, Julie.

    I won’t be in here much after 10 either due to the same location problem. Again, mucho thanks for all the time spent setting up the EV contest. I hope yours is a whole lot closer to the result than mine

  30. do either of you, ltep or jj, know what this little piece is called?

    “little piece” = the connector for 2 ends of telephone “cord” { that thing that goes into the phone jack at the wall on one end and your phone on the other end }.

    I have 2 sections of it and I want to make my phone reach from point a to point b. Neither piece is long enough on its own but together they will work. I know that you can purchase a piece (its a little squarish block about the size of an egg or even smaller) that connects two of those “clippie” ends one on each side, my husband has purchased them before but I dont’ have any in the house at the moment.

    I just don’t know what they are called and I’m wondering if Coles would have it? I’m trying to stretch my phone into the room with the TV. Else, I will be out of the TV room when talking to US relatives today …..

  33. another voting experience story from MD this time …

    [
    My polling place is at the fairgrounds in Southern Maryland, about 40 minutes from Washington, D.C. This used to be tobacco country, but is slowly being developed, or other crops are grown. We waited until 10:00 to vote, to avoid the lines. When we got there a 97-year-old Black man was being wheeled out of the polls in his wheelchair. It was the first time he had ever voted in his life. When he came outside he asked if anyone could give him an Obama button. There were none left at the Democrat’s booth so I gave him mine. He was so proud and I started crying. He looked at me and said, “why are you crying? this is a day for glory.” I am still crying.
    ]

  34. thanks boer war …. there’s a DS in Tuggeranong and I can get there in about 15 minutes, door to door including parking. If I drop my kids off at school at 8:30 I ought to be able to get there and back before 10am 🙂 …..

  38. Sorry, guys, lost the link to this, but it comes from a US site:

    ‘As she waited for her beverages, a local reporter asked the governor how she envisions her role in national politics if McCain loses the election. Palin did not hesitate to muse about a future that might not include being vice president come January.

    “You know, if there is a role in national politics it won’t be so much partisan,” she said. “My efforts have always been here in the state of Alaska to get everybody to unite and work together and progress this state.”

    “It would certainly be a uniter type of role,” she added.

    Asked if she had any regrets about the campaign, Palin bemoaned “the state of journalism today.”

    “The blogosphere, the two, three hour news cycles, where just too much is reported based on gossip and innuendo and things taken out of context,” she explained, adding that she’d like to help improve the profession because she has “great respect for the world of journalism.”

    OK, so, post losing the election, the Palin Strategy combines ‘The Great Uniter’ with ‘It was the fault of the media.’ It would be interesting to see how she thinks she is going to ‘improve the profession.’

  39. “My efforts have always been here in the state of Alaska to get everybody to unite and work together and progress this state.”

    That is apart from gay people, pro-choice, liberals etc. etc.

  41. ‘Man of the Year’ (2006)…classical political flick and takes the pun out of both sides.

    Just hours to go before we have a….

    President Barack Obama

    or

    President John McCain

  44. Thanks for the blog Al.

    So far I love the blog “McCain touts “alien” endorsement” and this line in their open thread: “Tell us about any irregularities. Give us your best “why the polls are wrong” explanation.”

    I think we can all feel sorry for this baby:

  47. ltep, well Diebold do make voting machines and ATMs, so yeah it shouldn’t be that hard.

    We could go in to the whole Republican/Diebold story, but I really can’t be bothered. Google it for any interested.

  48. Glen @ 38
    That would be President-elect Obama or President-elect McCain?

    I suspect they actually get the job in January. But here is a serious question: Given the number of armed fruitcakes in the US, and given the state of McCain’s health, what happens if the president-elect dies before taking up the job?

  50. Hi gang, what a wonderful day. Obama winning in a MASSIVE LANDSLIDE. All the so called experts still in the river in Egypt. DE NILE.
    What a wonderful day. YES! YES! YES!

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