Essential Research: 58-42

No Newspoll this week, but the always dependable Essential Research weekly survey shows Labor’s lead stuck at 58-42. Also featured are prime ministerial approval ratings (56 per cent for, 31 per cent against) and questions on the Productivity Commission’s maternity leave recommendations (trending negative), party leaders’ responses to the financial crisis and government plans to tackle climate change (don’t go far enough).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

361 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. Some momentum.

    The Prime Minister has spent much of the day in a special meeting with the Government’s top economic advisers discussing the way ahead in the financial crisis.

    Kevin Rudd called the meeting at short notice. He was joined on the phone by the Treasurer from Washington, his Deputy Julia Gillard and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner.

    Mr Rudd sat for several hours in the Cabinet room together with the heads of the Treasury, the Finance Department and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/11/2388437.htm?section=justin

  2. Bushfire Bill back @ 285. Wild clapping. There you go, TP, Rudd’s been working. I thought he and Swan had been more in evidence this week in the meeja. It certainly got aired that Rudd was on the phone to the Chinese and others. Swan belted Turnbull nicely with that comment about there being some things bigger than his ego. Parliament will provide the opportunity next week for the government to smack them around the ears. Maybe Julie Bishop will call in sick. She must be terrified.

  3. Turnbull certainly isn’t popular in the business community:

    One industry leader said: “Turnbull seems to be the only person in Australia that wants a recession.”

    “You come away from the government with a good hearing; you come away from talking to Malcolm feeling slightly dirty” said one major bank director, referring to talks between Turnbull and management.

    Another senior executive said “Turnbull seems happy to sacrifice the ordinary punter by going out there and saying he’s fighting for them”

    http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?EDP://20081011000030408184&section=financial_services&title=Rudd+gives+banks+a+wink+and+a+nod

  4. The Liberals great hope was that the economy would go pear shaped and Rudd would be a one term Govt.

    It may have worked if the word “Global” was not in every news report.

    Its sad they have no plan B. Even plan A was a shocker. Plan C is how to stave off total irrelevance.

  5. 301 TP – lol! I was at State Conference this morning. Julia was to address us, but we were told that it would be brief and she would have to leave immediately after her speech. One of the unionists behind me muttered, “Oh, that’s always the way. They never stop and talk. She’s probably just off to a BBQ or something.”

    I really really hope that unionist is eating humble pie right now.

  8. House prices have already bottomed? Are you serious? At least not in Eastern Sydney. I don’t know why everyone expected house prices to magically fall for no reason. Interest rates are relatively high and there is a huge under supply of housing. The analysts said “Look at the US! They too had a housing bubble and it crashed! That means ours will as well!”. Except as we all know they had ridiculously low interest rates and a massive over supply of housing.

    House prices in inner-Sydney are unlikely to ever come down unless the whole area is rezoned as ultra-high density.

  9. If you look at the relationship between share prices and waterfront – canal property nothing has changed. It has had the same inverse relationship for well over a decade.

    House prices in this niche will double in the next 5 years.

  10. Actually, the over all impression I have of the last week is that of a government informing themselves, being in contact with major players, calmly looking after Oz’s interests, in the face of an unprecedented crisis. The Opposition look and sound like they haven’t a clue, and Paris, the Rainmaker, Turnbull is busily burning his bounce. Anyone want to speculate what his PPM rating might be in the next Newspoll? I’ll have a stab at 15, a halving of his previous rating, I think, from memory.

  11. Sorry, no comment today – working (Kevin Rudd: Prime Minister of Australia)

    Sorry, no comment today – working (Deputy Prime Minister; Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations; Minister for Education; Minister for Social Inclusion.) J Gillard

    Sorry, no comment today – working (Wayne Swan: Treasurer)

    **Will talk for airtime**- bored (Malcolm Turnbull: Opposition Leader)

    **Will talk for airtime** twitchy ( Julie Bishop: Deputy Opp leader)

    **Will talk for food** avuncular (Joe Hockey: McDonalds)

    **Will talk** lonely (Tony Abbott: Tony Abbott)

  13. Paul Kelly’s article today was pretty pathetic. Supposedly about the financial crisis but really a shameless plug for Turnbull. Mentioned him and what his views 11 times and Rudd’s 6.

    And I thought Rudd was the PM?

  17. When Turnball loses the next election virtually all the MSM are going to have to eat their own hats. Not that we expect them to ever admit that their revolting attempts to fashion some kind of super-politician were ridiculous and out of touch with voters actually want.

  19. Oz, I don’t recall any of the MSM eating any hats on Nov 25; so I doubt they’ll be doing so after the next election – when they get it wrong, like the Ministry of Truth, the history is just re-written (or more accuratly “mis-remembered”).

  20. Aw, come on. Significant sections of the media where supportive of Rudd. Maybe only because they knew he was going to win. This time it’s the opposite. They’re so desperate for a ‘contest’ they’re talking up Malcolm just to watch him fall.

  21. The old saying – trash in trash out, applies to The Australian as well.

    Kelly is delusional, suffers from very poor judgment or is just blind lazy if he thinks Turnbull is any talent. As we have seen the business community seem to view him with either distaste or contempt.

  24. A Taverner poll of the NSW state electorate of Ryde. (By-election on Saturday)

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/voters-set-to-hand-rees-a-thrashing/2008/10/11/1223145699132.html

    The poll predicted a final result of 64 per cent (after preferences) to the Liberals, with Labor on 36 per cent.

    It predicts Labor’s primary vote will plummet to just 24 per cent.

    Ominously for Labor, Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell outpolls Mr Rees 44 to 32 per cent on who would make the better premier, with 24 per cent undecided.

    “The poll shows that an enormous 41 per cent of those who say they preferred Labor in March 2007 now prefer Liberal,”

  25. Holey moley. A 24% swing to the Libs? If that’s true, then Cabramatta’s a possibility to go down… to who, I couldn’t say. Is there a party around those parts that consistently outpolls the informal vote?

  26. Oz @ 317, do you really think that Paris Turnbull will still be at the helm of the SS Liberal for the election? I predict that the Flat Earthers (right wing conservatives) will undermine him by then with their fear of dropping off the end of the world. The only question is who is to replace him. I would suggest that they will put their faith in God (being born to rule and all) and become a theocratic party under an abbott – being the only one able to challenge the evil labor party

    Tom

  27. I think this fits in with Adam Carr’s thesis of a swing away from the right (Rocking all over the world). The swing is to the centre, not the left, so Rudd will benefit from that. If the Green vote doesn’t go up, then it will confirm the theory.

  29. GB – good article (of course it’s from that horribly biased Age newspaper…)

    Watching Insiders, can’t believe they thought Rudd should have provided advice on which way the stock market would go. Kerry Anne Walsh (?) said his answer was “wishy-washy” and would regret it. What he should have said “everyone sell, sell, sell!!!”?

  31. [Prime Minister Kevin Rudd today announced the government would guarantee all deposits being held in Australian financial institutions for the next three years.

    The blanket guarantee was one part of a three-pronged plan to further safeguard Australians from the fallout from the global financial crisis.

    The government will also guarantee all term wholesale funding by Australian banks operating in international markets.
    Mr Rudd said this would enable Australian banks to better compete against their global rivals, many of whom were getting guarantees from their governments.

    The government will also put another $4 billion into residential-backed securities to help shore up the Australian mortgage market]

    http://business.smh.com.au/business/bank-deposits-guaranteed-for-3-years-20081012-4z07.html

  32. Rudd said the deposits are about A$600-700B in the Institutions at anyone time. The guarantee is for any deposits and any amount.

  33. Rudd also said the banks have to pay insurance premium for the guarantees that the Govt is giving for their borrowings. So it is not a free ride for the banks to borrow recklessly.

  35. I commented over on the “rockin'”. Kevin to Turnbull, I’ll see your $100.000 and raise you whatever number you pick. How do you like them apples, eh? See what you can do when you’re really the government.

  36. My dad just rang me. He is right of Genghis Khan. Before I could remind him about the interest rate cut, he started telling me what a great job Rudd had done by guaranteeing bank deposits. He was beside himself with joy (obviously him cashing in all his super early this year had something to do with it).

    I asked about Turnbull and he was pretty dismissive. When dad prefers Rudd to Turnbull, you know the Liberals are in a whole world of pain. 😀

  37. So if the banks are paying premiums… and our banks don’t collapse and as a result the government won’t have to payout the deposits… does that mean we made a profit?

  38. [So if the banks are paying premiums… and our banks don’t collapse and as a result the government won’t have to payout the deposits… does that mean we made a profit?]

    Yup

  39. Probably, Oz. Rudd and Swan are a good deal more savvy than many credit them. Some time before the election, I heard Stephen Mayne talking, with obvious admiration, about how they had made a poultice, millions for, I think, the Q’l’d Labor Party and hoping they’d do something similar for Australia, if elected.

  40. This also gives me a delicious frisson of schadenfreude in relation to those irrelevant hacks on Insiders this morning, talking about how smart Rainmaker is. Hah! He might be smart, but he’s just as irrelevant as them when it comes to making real decisions that count.

  41. He’s probably so arrogant he thinks that the Government and banks sit around waiting for his press conferences before taking action. As opposed to him being the opportunistic little nobody jumping in at every gap spouting just about every economic theory of the past hundred years.

  42. Interesting news coverage tonight. Paul Bongiorno said a Labor source had told him today to hang onto his hat as there is to be big announcements next week. No details.
    SBS’s Karen Middleton said their are rumours of another leak and Turnbull is getting govt info and announcing it himself ahead of govt.
    7 had a Kosh scaremonering half hour saying unemployment will hit 8% and 300000 will be out of work and we’ll all lose our houses (well not quite but that was the gist of what they were pushing)
    Ullman on ABC was all doom and gloom saying we are heading for recession.

  43. [Ullman on ABC was all doom and gloom saying we are heading for recession]

    Anything that comes out of that religious zealot’s ignorant mouth should go straight into the rubbish bin post haste

  45. The hell’s wrong with an Ullman? Surely he’s just another atypical ABC communist pinko?

    Re: Karen Middleton…

    I think the media need to chill out and calm down. All this talk of leaks and rats in the rank makes Federal politics sound like The Departed. It’s probably doing wonders for the media’s ratings.

  46. So the sensible prediction is that the All Ords are going to take another hit tomorrow as investors flee to the safety of the banks? Or will the announcement shore up confidence and the combination of that and bargain hunters create a lift?

  47. Ullman when he interviewed Rudd on AM during the election campaign used to give some pretty anti-Rudd preambles. One he did was something like – that choosing Rudd was a bit like handing the keys to your new Ferrari to a stranger, you would be shaking in your boots or some such thing. And this as a preamble to interviewing Rudd. Says it all about Ullman’s ability at being non-partisan.

    I don’t know why he gets a job with the ABC as I have never thought his abilities or content to be very good.

    I would’t be surprised if there were some leaks from Treasury since Rudd didn’t make any wholesale changes there are likely to be a number of bitter Howard boys skulking around.

    Is there any penalty for selling Treasury information to say the Opposition? And is there any penalty for buying or offering to buy?

  48. The talk of a POSSIBLE recession here is a bit panic stricken. Over the weekend the financial deal was done in Europe:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/business/13europe.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

    With Rudd guaranteeing deposits over the weekend there is really no reason to panic here. In fact, as I just posted on another thread, some of our (cashed up) banks are now very good buying. I suspect their share price will bounce up today, as our dollar has already started doing. So will Rudds approval figures. Turnbull can forget it.

  49. Thomas Paine,

    Chris Uhlmann and Mark Riley spend far too much time trying to show everyone how clever they are, with their snide questions and cynical tones. I suspect they are both highly insecure individuals, who need to constantly reassure themselves that they are worthy.

  50. Is there a Newspoll due tonight? I’d love to see Rudd and Turnbull’s numbers after the alarmist comments from Turnbull last week.

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