Morgan: 57.5-42.5

No joy for Malcolm Turnbull from the latest Roy Morgan face-to-face survey of 1221 respondents, which has Labor’s two-party lead up to 57.5-42.5 from 55.5-44.5 in Brendan Nelson’s last poll (which was an unusually good result for him). There has been a straightforward 1.5 per cent primary vote shift to Labor from the Coalition, who are respectively on 46.5 per cent to 36.5 per cent. However, the number of respondents who think Labor will win is down from 57.5 per cent to 54 per cent, while the Coalition is up from 26.5 per cent to 29 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

419 thoughts on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

  1. It’s good to occasionally look back on some things.

    Forget interest rates ad, it only ran two nights: PM

    [As Labor accused Mr Howard of weasel words over interest rates, the Prime Minister said it was more important to concentrate on the future and “not so much what happened three years ago”.

    He maintained rates would be even higher if Labor won by asserting Labor’s industrial relations policy would result in centralised wage fixing, causing wages to rise in areas where there was no productivity increase, resulting in a wage-driven inflation break-out and “recessionary circumstances”.

    Labor has accused Mr Howard of breaking a promise on interest rates he had no right to make in the first place. Yesterday the shadow treasurer, Wayne Swan, rejected any suggestion of a return to centralised wage fixing.

    Mr Howard continued to keep pressure on the Reserve Bank yesterday but stopped short of endorsing comments to the Herald by the Treasurer, Peter Costello, that “a huge tsunami” was about to sweep though global financial markets.]

  2. [John Howard] said it was more important to concentrate on the future and “not so much what happened three years ago”.

    Amazing! This is the fellow who, with his party, made constant references to “17% interest rates under Labor” and “Labor’s $96 billion debt.”

    His adoring fans continue to refer to those distant times even today, in 2008. Sad old buggers.

  3. Adam

    I sort of agreed with Janet too. I think triple j did a story recently saying that the drive for Australians and Americans to own their homes resulted historically from a Communist scare after WWII. Any truth to that?

  4. ahhh, so predictable as always … the ABC in their story on the interest rate cuts had Turnbull ‘s statement before that of the Rudd and Swan.

  5. Pol Pot, I get the feeling they have to do it that way, even if it’s just so the Liberal Party doesn’t harass them silly about being “biased”.

  6. Why do they bother?

    WIN TV just announced the results of a phone poll. The question was; Do you believe that the LNP can now win the next Qld election.

    Yes – 87%

    No – 13%.

  7. Diogenes, it was certainly the view of conservatives in the 1950s that the best way to tame the militant working class was to give them a stake in the system through home ownership, so that the workers ceased to be proletarians and become property-owners. Hence Calwell’s bitter remarks about how the “little capitalists” cost him the 1961 election. Thatcher’s selloff of the council housing estates had the same motive. But I think the rate of home ownership was always higher in the US and Australia than it was in Britain, mainly because we’re just richer countries, and we have more land for suburban growth.

  8. Interesting, BB @ 349, that rumour about the rate cut by the RBA was being talked about rather extensively by none other than Stephan Mayne on local ABC Drive this pm. Made it sound like the response has been very international and much like expectations of the second coming. Weird stuff happening – Japanese and Australian PMs being quoted as authorities in the U.S. HoR (I think) as reasons to vote for the bail out, and then Australian RBA being perceived as some sort of economic guru. Turnbull currently being monstered by Gail Bradley, CEO, ANZ on the 7.30 Report. How on earth is he going to survive, let alone there being any poll bounce?

  9. On 7-30 Report Alan Kohler just said Talcum’s remarks on the rate cut were political and stupid. lol. Brenda is starting to look like an economical genius compared to this dope.

  10. Quite hilarious to see the Liberals attack banks and the banks attack back. Like big brother telling little runt brother to shut it. Or cannibalism. Can’t even attack the unions since they are with him on this one, What next? Turnbull attacking big oil?

    Fortunately for him the unofficial media Opposition party is doing his job.

  11. scorpio, @ 361, Rupert does indeed own The Wall Street Journal. Now I’m not ordinarily given to conspiracy theories. Usually, give me a choice between a stuff up and a conspiracy, and I’ll opt for a very ordinary human SNAFU every time. However, there seems to me some very strange things happening at the moment. Certainly, the 4 Corners program on Lichenstein tax “arrangements” gave me cause for pause. There are a lot of people who have lost a lot of money in recent times, with the possibility of much more money disappearing, depending on the depth and extent of the recession, and possible depression. There are historically, three great drivers of human conflict, sex, money and power. It might be the SNAFU scenario or something else. I wish we had some investigative journos capable of /resourced to, following some of this stuff up, because if it’s occurring to ordinary folk like me, that what’s happening is more than passing strange, maybe it reveal something about how the world works, not usually known to us plebs?

  12. Adam

    Thanks for that. Triple J was spot on again! That does raise an interesting point. If the arch-conservative Janet is arguing (fairly persuasively IMHO) that home ownership is a needless luxury for many with a serious economic downside, isn’t she arguing against standard conservative thinking for the last 50 years or so? Is she saying that the conservatives have has the wrong aspirations for the last 50 years or is it the more recent economic climate that has made their policy redundant ❓

  13. Harry, I hate to tell you this but your avatar is actually Mr D. P. Gumby, the well known flower arranger. I believe there is no authentic picture of the legendary Superintendant Harry “Snapper” Organs of the Yard.

  14. What’s changed since the 50s is the nature of the lower-income population and the nature of consumerist capitalism. The low-income homebuyers of the 50s grew up in the Depression and most of them had served in World War II. They were used to privation, discipline and defered gratification. They didn’t have credit cards. Now everyone expects everything instantly with no waiting, no sacrifice and no pain, and these illusions are happily fed by advertising and the trash media. Did you know there are 1.5 billion credit cards in the US? No wonder they are up to their eyeballs in debt.

  15. Adam in Canberra @370. Well spotted. It is indeed Gumby of flower arranging type behaviour, Harry”Snapper” Organs, in pictorial form, being M.I.A., so to speak. Probably to be found in a comfy chair somewhere. Possibly to be found with a coffee table nailed to his head. Possibly hunting down Spiny Norman. You never know.

  16. [Can someone please make an animated .gif with Turnbull comically bouncing down a road and label it “The Turnbull bounce”]

    Oz, after watching Turnbull on the 7.30 Report tonight, I think one with him doing “back flips” would be more appropriate. He seems to think that 80 points is not too bad but still wants the full 100 pts. Not allowing of course for the fact that the banks are sourcing their funds (30%) internationally at 2%+ over the domestic rate.

    How come the MSM seem to constantly omit to identify this fact. If electors can be constantly reminded of things like this, it will continue to make Turnbull’s position unsellable.

    [We saw John Howard seeking to exploit this ambiguity in the 2004 election campaign. He claimed all the credit for low interest rates, promised to keep them at record lows and warned that Labor couldn’t be trusted to control them.

    He was dishonest to claim much of the credit, reckless to make promises about something he didn’t control and misleading to claim that our choice of elected government would make a great difference to interest rates.

    And now his interest rate chickens have come home to roost. Rates will have risen six times since he promised to keep them low but now he and Costello are claiming that’s due to factors beyond their control (how can you blame us for the drought and rising world oil prices?) while persisting with their claim that they will always keep interest rates lower than Labor can.]

  17. The more I think about it and the more things I read like this, I am becoming convinced that the Libs think that they are still governing the country from the opposition benches.

    [It’s claimed the $20 billion Building Australia Fund will improve major cities and lift national productivity but the Opposition says funding guidelines will need to be closely monitored.]

    [Opposition infrastructure spokesman Andrew Robb is wary of the audit process.

    “Mr Rudd needs to confirm that the analysis which supports any project recommendations of Infrastructure Australia is made public before final decisions are taken by the Rudd cabinet,” Mr Robb said in a statement.

    “However, you can have all the guidelines in the world, but if politics is allowed to come in over the top the guidelines may be to no avail.

    “As well, the guidelines need to be applied effectively.”]

    [“Given the sorry record of state Labor governments with infrastructure projects, and the dismal start by this government, great scrutiny will need to be applied to the Rudd government’s infrastructure program,” he said.]

  18. They wouldn’t like this aspect of it though.

    [Prime Minister Kevin Rudd today released a detailed “methodology” to be applied to all projects seeking funding under the $20 billion Building Australia Fund.

    “The Rudd Labor government is reforming the way Australia plans, finances and builds infrastructure,” he said in a statement.

    “Through a combination of national leadership, long-term planning and genuine community engagement, we will reverse the decades of under-investment in the nation’s critical economic infrastructure.”

    The Prime Minister says the proposals’ social and environmental impacts will be assessed, along with their ability to develop cities and cut greenhouse gas emissions.]

    Far easier to just work it out on the back of an envelope and make sure it “pork barrels” marginal and rural LNP electorates.

  19. I must have been asleep for the past few days. Missed this.

    [Labor Party national secretary Tim Gartrell, the campaign director behind Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s election victory last year, has resigned.

    Mr Gartrell said it had been an enormous privilege to serve as national secretary for the past five years.

    “I’m particularly grateful for the support I received from the national executive after the 2004 federal election defeat and the privilege of being the ALP campaign director for the 2007 federal election,” he said in a statement.

    “I’d like to thank Kevin Rudd for his support and friendship and I wish him and his excellent team well in the future.”]

  20. That comment by Robb is particularly hypocritical given the nature of the previous governments record on such spending. No wonder he knows the dangers of political interference in infrastructure decision making – they did it all the time. Consider the Darwin – Alice Springs railway line, when upgrades for Melbourne – Brisbane and Sydney – Canberra were knocked back. Not to mention the other projects with benefit cost ratios below one that got money anyway. A lot of good work was done for AusLink, but far too much spending was purely dictated by pork barrels going into coalition electorates. Which is one reason why every capital city in Australia today has inadequate capacity in its public transport system – Keatings Better Cities program was killed off ten years earlier.

  21. No 389

    Socrates, it amazes me that you Labor hacks continue to blame Howard for inadequate public transport. The States are responsible for public transport. Do you believe in federalism?

  22. scorpio@383. I thought Turnbull revealed exactly what Possum has been pointing at with regard to the twin support bases; you can’t please them both. Mind you, I think Rudd and Labor have a much more difficult set of tasks ahead of them. Degree of difficulty certainly a 10, with double pike, and a triple by-pass, and probably sitting in the comfy chair, with the coffee table nailed to the head, and Spiny Norman on the loose. Can’t say fairer than that, can you?

  23. Oh for goodness sake, Generic Person, we’re in deep, deep, really deep here, in terms of the global financial train wreck. You want to spend your time blaming, you go right ahead, because you won’t be part of the solution.

  24. Advanced Australia Fair. We are leading the World.

    [Australia Turns The Tide – With Asian stocks sliding again Tuesday, Australian monetary authorities stepped in and gave the markets a burst of energy with a surprisingly large interest rate cut that investors hoped would be the first in a rumored wave of coordinated actions by the world’s central banks.]

  25. Grog @ 327 –

    If you think banks are doing so great, buy some shares in them… oh I guess they’re not doing THAT well…

    Most people would have some of their super invested in bank stock given they make up a sizable slice of the market. Of the 6 biggest companies by market capitalisation, 3 are banks.

    BTW – I hear Turnbull is now claiming credit for the banks reducing rates by 80bp because of the pressure he and the Opposition exerted. LOL!

    The Finnigans @ 373 –

    Sounds like the aircraft was caught in a downburst – aka (incorrectly) an airpocket. Unfortunate, but there is little either QANTAS or its crews can do other than asking passengers to belt up unless moving around the cabin. Commercial aircraft are equipped with doppler radars than can warn of them at low altitude, but it’s often a hit and miss affair higher up.

  26. Nice to see some praise for thr govt for a change

    ” Australia showed the world in no uncertain terms that we are one of the strongest countries in the western world – if not the strongest. But don’t think that the 1 per cent interest rate cut gets Australia out of the woods.

    Unlike in Europe and the US, where bank runs are a real fear, everyone in Australia knows our banks are safe. To make sure they were seen as safe by the entire world, the government ensured that the banks would take some of the rate reduction on the chin. Full marks to Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan for this outstanding gesture. The bigger than forecast interest rate cut will mean that there will be less political pain than expected, but good government should also be recognised.”

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