WA election plus two days

• The image below indicates the notional margins in metropolitan seats going into the election, and the results as of the close of count on election night. Click on the image to toggle between the two. Colour coding runs from very light for below 2 per cent to very heavy for above 15 per cent.

• Exchange from 6PR election night broadcast between former Liberal leader Matt Birney, broadcaster Howard Sattler and former Labor MP Graham Edwards. Much more remains to be said on The West Australian’s extraordinary coverage of this campaign, but Birney hits on the main themes.

MB: The West Australian newspaper, the journalists down there have been having running fights and personality clashes with Alan Carpenter and his senior ministers including Jim McGinty who once banned them. And I’ll tell you what, they have taken it upon themselves to punish those ministers for those personality clashes, and some of the articles have appeared day after day after day on The West Australian newspaper I think have just damaged the hell out of the Labor Party, and I might say as a Liberal, I’m prepared to say, some of them very unfairly.

HS: And yet today the paper said … today editorial in the paper said vote Labor!

MB: No it didn’t at all, that was Paul Armstrong trying to cover his backside in case the board tapped him on the shoulder and say, what do you think you’re doing.

HS: I know what you mean, but 95 per cent of the editorial bagged the Carpenter government and the last 5 per cent said vote for him (laughs) …

MB: Can I just respond to that? For those people who read the editorial, they’d realise that the editorial was absolutely scathing of the Labor Party …

HS: It was.

MB: … and then in the very last line said, but it’s probably a safe vote to vote Labor. Do you know what that was? That was Paul Armstrong, the editor of The West Australian, covering his backside in case he got a phone call from Peter Mansell, the chairman of the board, saying “I think you guys have allowed your personality clashes with these ministers to play out in the pages of our newspaper” …

During the campaign in particular there were a number of articles that were completely beaten up. For instance, the headline saying Michelle Roberts has dared the Premier to sack her. Well, she never did any such thing. The Premier flies to Albany, as you do when you’re a leader, to announce a renewble energy policy, and The West focus in on how much fuel he used in the aeroplane. You know, The West said “oh, the Labor Party aren’t in fact the green party because they’re bringing on 1100MW of coal and gas-fired power”. Well, if they didn’t do that the state would be on its knees. I could go on and on …

GE: Certainly the campaign between The West and the Carpenter government was a very intriguing one. It was there and it was real and I think Matt’s hit the nail on the head.

MB: It was juvenile, wasn’t it? … I don’t think that The West have a left-wing bias, I think that their journalists get into a fight with a politician, they then go back to their office and they say, “right, I’ll stitch that bloke up”, and then they find the worst headline and the worst story they can and they beat the hell out of it, and they then stick it into the paper for the next day and they say “there you go, cop that one, you want to be …”.

HS: So it’s all about megalomania.

MB: Oh, it’s out of control, it’s a teenage rampage down there at The West Australian at the moment.

• Another highlight of the 6PR coverage, from Gary Gray:

Whoever was running that campaign panicked about the middle of last week, and they got away from the solid Vision, Stability, Leadership campaign they’d been running before in a fairly focused way and started pulling out scare ads of the uranium kinds and other things, and I think it was a huge error to do that.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

261 comments on “WA election plus two days”

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  4. 145 – I pronounce it ‘I can’t believe the libs found someone to run who’s even more of a f*(king twat than Tony MacRae’

    ABC website has changed its Kwinana prediction to ALP retain.

  5. According to the ABC site, Sue Walker is still in the hunt in Nedlands – 0.3% vs Libs. They just updated that, and Wagin for some reason.

  10. 132 – Agree. Roger Cook was a left endorsed candidate, who has been an activist in the party for many many years. He followed factional and party processes to fairly win pre-selection, unlike Carpenter’s candidates and waiver was required.

  11. I think Nahan seems like an interesting bloke, id rather have a right wing lunatic than a ‘corrupt’ politician.

    So far Williams analysis of the postals/prepolls is holding true, except in Albany.

  16. ABC news: Barnett offers Grylls deputy premiership. Royalties for regions “on the table”.

    Grylls has already ruled out a Deputy Premiership – he doesn’t want to be in a joint party room situation.

  20. I don’t think they went backwards. The few I checked had the latest WAEC figures. What they have done is increased the tolerance for doubtful seats. Now there are 9. It also changes the state of the parties. Six of the doubtful are ALP seats, one Lib and three Ind. The ALP is leading in 4 one of which they are only 6 votes in front.

  22. nahan is far from a right wing loony. Look at his CV. Very impressive, the guy is a very very intelligent guy, who both sides rate very highly.

    The problem is he is the worlds worst marginal seat candidate, and recorded roughly 6% less of a swing compared to seats right next to him.

  23. Gus face,

    If the National wants to join ALP
    If they choose the ALP, the ALP to govern no matter what, already has the number, the Nat gets what they want if they announce early. They have the advantage of getting in early and taking out the independants from the equations, if they wait they might get left out in the cold ie 28ALP + 2 Ind.

    So if the Nat wants to go with ALP they strike now

    If the Nationals wants to join Lib
    If they move early, it eliminate any chance of joining the ALP. However the Lib will need them to form a coalition no matter what, as they cannot get to 28 seats. So if they wants to join the Lib, they can wait as long as they can before deciding where they leap

    It would look really bad if they leap now and Labor retained government.

    So if the Nat wants to go with the Lib, they what

    So what did the Nat say

    What the Nat has said is that, we will wait until the result is known from the election and choose a side

    I think that clears it up

  24. Grylls couldn’t possible accept a ministry after all he’s said. Evan by Australian standards, even by National Party standards, EVEN BY WA STANDARDS, that would be a bit much.

  25. cheers Lenwx @ 170, yeah yeah regarding doubtful seats…but beforehand ABC had 71% or so of the votes counted (I think!), but now back to 68.5%…whereas WAEC now up to 73.5%…

  26. Given Grylls’ insistence that he won’t join a Coalition, and won’t have a joint party room, surely the most likely scenario (assuming the ALP does not get to 28 seats + 2 independents) is a Liberal minority government with the Nationals committing to support them in matters of supply and confidence, but with all other bills requiring negotiation.

  29. So where’s his cv average joe? The link above & the info that he has done nothing but work for the IPA (a right wing Union basically) don’t provide any evidence that he’s not a triple gilt-edge f*&king twat and a right wing loony. Also look at his serial-killer glasses. Definitely not a great marginal seat candidate.

    “Mike Nahan

    Senior Fellow

    Dr Mike Nahan was Executive Director from 1995 to 2005. Before that he was Director of the Institute’s State Policy Unit.”

  31. Uh that was a reply to average joe 172, and yeh otis anybody who thinks Johnston is a dangerous leftie must be a dangerous righty.

  32. Re the ABC site: It says less votes counted and the time last changed as last night, but in fact the latest votes are shown at least for the ones I checked.

  34. Grylls won’t commit to Alliance with Libs.

    Nationals leader Brendon Grylls has refused to commit to any deal with Colin Barnett’s Liberal Party this morning, leaving West Australians in limbo over who will govern the State.

    Emerging from a two-hour meeting with Mr Barnett, the pair shook hands for the cameras before Mr Grylls announced to wait no deal had been done.

    He said he would wait on the outcome of the vote count and firm written proposals from both the Labor and Liberal parties before committing his party to any alliance. He would not hold a final meeting with both party leaders until Sunday.

    Mr Grylls described the meeting with Mr Barnett as very good, open and frank.

    “I’m very confident regional WA can look forward to a very prosperous time, regardless of whatever deals the Nationals make,” Mr Grylls said.

    He said the “kingmaker” role was not something that sat comfortably with him, and he was just trying to get the best for the regions.

    Mr Barnett described the meeting as honest, open and productive.

    Mr Grylls had explained his proposed royalties in the region policy and he now believed he had a firm understanding of what the Nationals proposed.

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=96752

  36. 183 the only thing Alexander Downer ever said that I agreed with was ‘It’s un-Australian to make fun of people’s accents’ (in response to being teased about his own) but since you’ve started, Glen, yeah Nahan comes across like some kind of triple gilt plated f*&king right wing loony twat with serial-killer glasses and a fascist mo and a weird drawly celtic accent.
    Maybe he’s perfect for Riverton.

  39. “Honest” and “Frank” are, in respect of party to party discussions, in pollie and diplomatic speak the same as the Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times”.

  40. Lenwx, time changed is actually 1 min ago (was 10 mins ago), you’re right about current votes…just that total votes counted percentage through me…

  41. required # 185, that’s one reason I personally never considered going into politics in Australia. My accent (also mixed North American) from when I was a kid would insight too much prejudice from raving anit-Americans! Funny, Australians do seem to follow many American fads and fashions. And Anti-Americanism being one of them!

  46. Nahan’s accent isn’t the only problem, he is also extremely unpersonable and condescending in person. So it wasn’t just his accent working against him. Plus he hadn’t done a single mail out until the election was called.

    Anyway yeah, he could get done in Riverton.

  49. Appears to be some misunderstanding about the ‘In doubt’ column on the ABC site. The in doubt seats are just placed under their incumbent party, its not an indication of who is currently ahead or likely to win. (So don’t add the ‘Total won’ to the ‘In doubt’ for each party)

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