WA election minus two days

The big news of the last week has been Labor’s publicising of comprehensive internal polling from the marginal seats of Albany, Kingsley, Riverton, Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. The figures show Labor trailing 34 per cent to 48 per cent on the primary vote, or 45-55 on two-party preferred. The trend line in the polling showed that just one week ago Labor was leading 52-48 on the back of a post-debate rally, restoring their fortunes after the much-touted 6 per cent swing picked up the previous week. I assume we’re talking about unadjusted results for the five specific seats, in which case they compare with a 2005 result of 51-49. It must be remembered that there are peculiarities to this particular collection of seats: Kingsley had a slightly anomalous result last time, local issues involving Leach Highway may be biting in Riverton, and Labor doesn’t have sitting members in its notionally held seats of Ocean Reef and Swan Hills. Against this is the fact that Labor can expect a better-than-average result in Albany, as they will be campaigning seriously in the newly added areas for the first time. On balance, the sample of seats used might be expected to add up to a slightly above average swing. If another 2 per cent can be accounted for by the margin of error and late efforts to scare waverers, Labor will still get its nose in front. Otherwise …

Labor is certainly behaving like a party with the smell of death in its nostrils, judging by the pitch of its scare campaigns on uranium mining and GM crops. However, The West Australian remains loftily dismissive of the message Labor is trying to send on polling, and indeed most other things. It should hope for vindication on this score, as last Thursday its front page proclaimed: “Forget talk of a tight race – Labor’s home, say WA’s two best political commentators”. Both of those commentators remain unmoved by the latest Labor figures. Paul Murray writes: “The pretty graphs shown fleetingly on television last night are not the detailed polling figures that are needed to examine Labor’s claims properly, as the ABC journalists who presented them know full well.” Such reliance on polling strategy is compared unfavourably with “Labor titans like John Curtin, Doc Evatt, Gough Whitlam and Bob Hawke”, who “bravely plotted their own political courses, according to their consciences, in their dealings with the electors.” You are invited to contemplate a Paul Murray transported in time to the early 1970s, turning out columns in praise of the brave and principled leadership of Gough the Titan.

Robert Taylor writes that Labor “only has to improve between 2 and 3 per cent by polling day and it wins”, which makes it sound so easy. Furthermore, “the poll produced by Labor yesterday wasn’t too much different from the way things were running in the last week of the 2005 election campaign when Geoff Gallop came from behind just a week out to record a comfortable victory” – though on that occasion Labor had the free kick of Colin Barnett’s costings debacle two days out from polling day. Great weight is given to the survey’s other findings: “24 per cent of those polled said they could remember something that appealed to them about a Barnett message while 38 per cent said they could remember and liked something the Premier had said”, while only 31 per cent thought the Liberals ready for government (which interestingly compares with low-20s figures being put around at the start of the campaign). Expectations of the result are much as they’ve always been: 61 per cent of voters believed Labor would win, compared with 18 per cent for the Liberals. The bookies too remain non-plussed, offering $1.25 on Labor and $3.50 on Liberal.

UPDATE: Super-size all that: today the bottom of the front page is headlined, “Speculation ALP back on track as new polling figures withheld”. This is based on Labor’s refusal to release its figures for a second day running. The West is also literally running free Liberal advertising.

Also:

• More on The West Australian: A mirthful Matt Birney told 6PR’s Simon Beaumont that the Liberals had “certainly been aided and abetted by the West Australian newspaper – and more power to them I say, good on you guys, keep it up”. The West responded to this embarrassing assessment by criticising the ABC. Inside Cover’s Neale Prior went so far as to provide a direct number for ABC news chief Kim Jordan, encouraging readers to call and annoy him (anyone got Prior’s number?). Prior noted that the paper had equally been slammed for Labor bias by no less an authority than Colleen Mortimer, a reader who had sent them an email.

• The front page of the Liberal site features the television ad which Labor’s pollsters blame for their apparent slump. I personally don’t find the ad so devastating that it explains a 7 per cent reversal, and find myself wondering if the furore over the TruthAboutTroy website might have crystallised doubts about Labor’s style.

• There’s also a seventh radio ad on the Liberal site, and it’s yet another Whingeing Wendy effort (this time with a male voiceover). Radio advertising has been a point of difference between the two campaigns, with Labor’s jocular style typified by a depiction of Barnett as a quiz show contestant struggling with questions about uranium mining. In an interesting parallel with the federal campaign, Labor’s ads seem tailored for FM whereas the Liberals sound like they made theirs with talkback in mind.

• Ian Taylor, who led the Opposition for a year between the departure of Carmen Lawrence in 1994 and the brief tenure of Jim McGinty, has been expelled from the ALP for endorsing independent Murchison-Eyre MP John Bowler in his campaign for Kalgoorlie. Bowler was one of the four ministers whose scalps were claimed by the Corruption and Crime Commission’s inquiries.

• The Western Australian Electoral Commission predictably dismissed a Liberal complaint against Labor ads attacking Barnett over “nuclear waste”, as its power lies only over material involving “the casting of the elector’s vote”. The complaint nonetheless succeeded in communicating the party’s grievance through news coverage.

• Labor’s big ticket campaign launch item of a rail line to Ellenbrook no doubt has a lot to recommend it on policy grounds, but it inevitably invites speculation as to the government’s electoral objectives. The line will serve the electorates of Midland, Morley, Bassendean, West Swan and Swan Hills. Notwithstanding the complicated state of play in Morley, the only one of the aforementioned which is on the electoral front line is the latter. The Liberals matched the promise in such short order that there was speculation Labor had locked in the policy to pre-empt them.

• Another interestingly targeted policy is Labor’s promise to change the public transport fare structure to make fares cheaper in the outer suburbs. This benefits a wide arc of marginal seats from Ocean Reef on the northern coast through Joondalup, Wanneroo and Swan Hills to Darling Range.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

485 comments on “WA election minus two days”

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  1. Well, I’d prefer a government where bent ministers resign or are sacked to one that denies there’s a problem until the media furore (if there is one) dies down and then continues as before.

    I’m also quite keen to continue with a state government whose Treasurer, smarmy git though he may be, can count to 20 without needing to take his socks off.

    Oh, yes, and one who’s major infrastructure projects are actually useful (railway, desal plant) rather than monuments to vanity (belltower). Although, now it’s there, I do have a sneaking liking for the belltower.

  2. Why cant the Libs replace Colin Barnett with Sarah Palin? lol That would energize the election.

    I hope we have fewer independents, the only exception being Liz. I hope Sue and Janet get thumped.

  3. Sorry Glenn but your guys have already gazumped labor on the dodgy donation front!

    A Liberal candidate is being investigated for failing to disclose a $27,000 donation, it was reported today.

    Paul Miles, who is running for the seat of Wanneroo against Labor MP Dianne Guise, cited an “administrative oversight” in failing to disclose the political donation he received during last year’s local government elections, ABC Radio reports.

  4. rumpoleccat even if that were true, he’s not an MP. Carps had to sack 5 Ministers for corruption (proven). Ethics will be the killer if the ALP are thrown out tomorrow.

  5. A few points…

    Frank, mate, I love your work…but you have to admit 5 ministers getting the boot for corrupt behaviour is dreadful. No name strikes fear into the heart of a Westrailan like ‘Brian Burke’ does, and to be caught running around with secret phones and handing out Cabinet documents is just intolerable.

    As for Carps, his staff are appalling, the timing of this thing has been all wring and the ALP generally has displaying the worst case of political tin ear I’ve ever seen.

    WA is NOT a Labor state, and never has been, 1V1V or not. You need a good government, good policy and a good campaign to beat the Tories in WA, and the ALP have had none of the above in the last 4 years or the last 4 weeks.

    As for Glen, turn it up old son. Blaming an early poll for the Lib’s lack of policy is a joke – they had 3.5 YEARS to get that right, but chose to intrigue like teenage schoolgirls instead. Not that the intellectual sandard of the State Libs would have likely produced much anyway, but you can’t argue they even tried.

    And the West – plud 6PR – have shamed even themselves with their effort this last month. It’s been the most biased paper since Pravda, and about as strong on content. Armstrong is a total joke as Editor, and really, Labor voters should point blank refuse to buy the thing en masse…just to drive it broke or get him replaced.

    Ultimately, the Libs will win, but will probably be more incompetent in government than the ALP. The true test will be to see if Labor can use Opposition to regenerate and get decent structure and policy back into its activities, to prevent a repeat of the last 4 years when they next get into Government.

  6. rumpoleccat even if that were true, he’s not an MP. Carps had to sack 5 Ministers for corruption (proven). Ethics will be the killer if the ALP are thrown out tomorrow.

    But didn’t the Libs have to dump Athony Fels (now a Family First Candidate) and John McGrath) from the Opposition Ministry for dealing with Brian Burke ?

    And we all know what happened to a Howard Minister 🙂

    Pots & Kettles.

  7. Glen,

    How many Ministers did Howard sack for fiddles in his first term? Didn’t do him any harm in the long run.

  8. No 357

    Problem is GG is that you end up running out of Ministers to sack if the standards are set so high as to be inhumanly perfect.

  9. I agree the labor party hasnt covered itself in glory with the CCC. However i wonder if the CCC existed in the court era what interesting titbits we would have garnered about the links between the states captains of industry and the court ministry. Also the CCC hasnt released its findings on a number of ministers so as yet corruption isnt proven . Carpenter acted prior to the final reports being handed down to ensure that the public could see that he would not tolerate any form of impropriety in his cabinet.

  13. Ch 10 News reported that the WAEC have already started counting Postal Votes, and Van Onsolen already knows the Newspoll results, but he didn’t reveal them and said that if the Libs had another 3 more days campaigning then they’d win, but he reckons either side will win by 2 or 3 seats.

  14. Carpenter acted prior to the final reports being handed down to ensure that the public could see that he would not tolerate any form of impropriety in his cabinet.?blockquote>

    The Libs on the other hand promoted to leader someone who’s antics would be a sackable offence in the private secotr.

  15. Rightio folks, here’s my picks… 🙂

    Labor to lose: Kingsley, Ocean Reef, Darling Range, Riverton, Bunbury and North West; all to Liberals. I think Mick Murray’ll hang on to Collie-Preston, though.

    Labor to (notionally) gain one of Albany or Geraldton from the Liberals.

    Liberals to lose Moore and Blackwood-Stirling to the Nationals, regain Nedlands from Walker (thanks to Green preferences), and hold onto Kalgoorlie by a reduced margin. (At least, I think so… see below.)

    Nationals win / hold Central Wheatbelt, Wagin, Moore, Blackwood-Stirling; independents to hold Churchlands and Alfred Cove.

    Anything else as on the pendulum.

    So, that gives:

    Labor 33 (-5)
    Liberal 20 (+4)
    National 4 (+2)
    Independent 2 (-1)

    Labor get back in, with a reduced majority.

    My roughie is Kalgoorlie: is there any polling / reporting on how Bowler’s doing out there? If he comes second on primary votes, then he’s got a good chance of winning, as Labor and the Liberals are preferencing him ahead of each other. Alternately, if it goes Lib – ALP – Bowler, then his preferences could throw the Labor guy over the line. That’s harder to say, though… he’s running an open ticket. It’ll be the one to watch, anyway. 😉

  23. The Libs have a good chance, but if they dont end up winning they’ve only got themselves to blame. Carps Corrupt outfit dont deserve to win, and the Libs havent looked like government material for a long while.

    Colin should of stayed on after 2005 and had another crack without having all these temp leaders ruining the show. Clearly the OV1V issue will if anything help Labor over the line if they win. But i would not be surprised if there is a strong protest vote, the people generally dont reward corruption in Government no matter the Party. That is why Colin has a chance, but we’ll all find out the newspoll eventually and be able to factor that in. One would have to say given OV1V the ALP should hold on but who knows the Libs may come very close.

  24. Tonight’s PM item.

    The leaders of the major parties in Western Australia have issued their final pleas for votes ahead of what’s tipped to be a close election tomorrow. The Premier Alan Carpenter has emphasised what he sees as the “risk” of electing the Liberals, while the Liberal Leader Colin Barnett has tried to counter that by promising integrity in government.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2008/09/05/2357043.htm

  26. 370 – Don’t ya just love a smart alec conservative? I bet if they lose you won’t see hide nor hair of him/her/it.

    Yep, I’m an ALP supporter through and through, and even I’m not making a prediction as I honestly don’t know who will win, though I hope Carps does it – but considering the biased media coverage to the libs, I have my doubts.

  27. The mere fact that we are discussing the possibility of the Libs winning despite having 4 of its seats chopped and gifting 6 to the ALP thank you 1 vote 1 value, shows how on the nose Carps Corrupt Cronies are and the people are out to punish him and his government but perhaps not to completely throw them out. Still it will go down to the marginals and the leaked newspoll shows the Libs ahead, but i think the ALP ahead state wise by a very small margin. It’s anybody’s guess really.

  28. No 375

    Bit rich coming from you Gazza. In the next breath, you’re just as likely to praise PJK for calling JWH a coconut. Double standards, hypocrisy and elitism from the left, as usual.

  29. No 376

    “Biased media coverage”? What are you smoking mate? Wall-to-wall Labor – the opposition are lucky to get seven seconds in a new bulletin.

  32. “Biased media coverage”? What are you smoking mate? Wall-to-wall Labor – the opposition are lucky to get seven seconds in a new bulletin.

    You do NOT live in WA where the only Daily Paper is a virtual Liberal Party Mouthpiece and the only commercial Talk Station does the same.

    They both make Pravda look like a school newsletter.

  34. I reckon there are still vast numbers of undecided people who will probably come down on the side of Labor. I tip a Labor victory with a reduced majority. The people who are voting Liberal have already made their minds up. Its hard to get over chairsniffing and leadership chaos.

  35. No 382

    Come on Frank, are you really going to stand here and defend a (Ill-advised comment deleted – PB)? Disgraceful. The WA Government deserves every bit of criticism it gets, just as Buswell deserved it for his despicable acts as former Opposition leader.

  36. Frank i have to agree with you there despite a recent story which said because Labor wasnt releasing any more internal polling they would win. But yes they are the most conservative tabloid around in WA.

  37. Come on Frank, are you really going to stand here and defend a (Ill-advised comment of GP’s deleted – PB)? Disgraceful. The WA Government deserves every bit of criticism it gets, just as Buswell deserved it for his despicable acts as former Opposition leader.

    Carpenter removed those cdaught out, The Libs promoted Buswell to leader no less than 3 times.

  39. 372 – the biggest swinging seat will be Southern River. Watch out for a 10% swing courtesy of the flawed 5.1% swing calculation by all the “experts” together with a sitting ALP member who has done almost literally nothing compared to a Lib candidate who has run one of the more impressive local campaigns in a long time.

  44. Of course you would be. You stand for corruption, incompetence and Brian Burke.

    As opposed to chairsniffing and Brasnapping – do that and you become Treasurer.

    Great Role Model there.

  45. Fear not Frank (388), I think your team is going to win whether it ‘deserves’ to or not, and even if it doesn’t, it won’t be a disaster for your great state. Carpenter is the best thing going for the ALP. He has made an argument which is usually the last refuge of the desperate (that is, elect us because the other mob are so divided and such a ‘policy free’ zone not ready for government), seem persuasive enough for however many he needs in the handful of marginals to cling to government.

  50. I’d pick Eyre to have a big swing. It’s got a Lib/ALP margin of 14.9% since the redistribution (which added in Labor voting), but Labor are running dead with some city kid who knows nothing about local issues or local anything. Even Labor people I know down in Esperance (one guy who got asked to be the candidate!) are voting for Graham Jacobs because they like him, and are somewhat miffed they’re being ignored again by Labor. There’ll be a dirty great big swing on the Lib/ALP 2pp, kinda meaningless because the Nats will come second.

    Also, I pick Vasse to have the highest CDP vote in any lower house seat. There’s gotta be plenty of people down there who don’t vote Labor, and certainly not Green, but don’t like the chair sniffer… what with no Nationals or Bernie Masters, the CDP are the only other party running. Labor only dropped in a candidate there at the last minute, so who knows… it might be a Lib/CDP result. I can’t see Buswell losing, though.

    Biggest margin’d have to be Liz Constable… 2PP vs ALP above 80%, as in 1996.

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