Half-time report: lower house

With the Olympics out of the way and less than a fortnight to go until polling day, the Western Australian election campaign is on in earnest. The official Liberal campaign launch was held on Sunday – footage of Colin Barnett’s speech can be viewed here, but it doesn’t convey the highly Americanised razzamatazz that dominated the vision on the television news. The Liberals finally have their first television ads in business: this remarkably drab positive effort, and a rather more innovative negative one. There have also been two further additions to the party’s roster of radio advertising, both dealing with law and order, making for six negative ads out of six. Labor’s campaign has gotten equally grim after a sunny start.

On Monday night came the low-rating televised leaders debate, hosted by Channel Nine, in which 30 of the 50 audience members drove the worm and delivered a verdict of 17-13 in favour of Alan Carpenter. The worm tracked fairly evenly, favouring Barnett for the first half of the debate and Carpenter for the second. Carpenter got good responses on “left” issues including privatisation, GM food bans and uranium mining, and when he pointed out he had called on the Salaries Tribunal not to increase MPs’ pay. He also drew blood when criticising the Liberals’ lack of women candidates, and when saying they had done “nothing to prepare themselves for government”. However, he did best of all when responding to moderator Dixie Marshall’s silly question about the contenders’ greatest moral failings with a joke about the Fremantle Dockers, and proclaiming his love for Western Australia. Barnett did well invoking the shadow of Brian Burke and WA Inc, but Carpenter also succeeded in drawing Noel Crichton-Browne into the issue, and Barnett appeared to indulge in an impromptu strengthening of his position on banning cabinet members from dealing with him. Other good responses for Barnett related to housing, education and teachers’ pay, but the worm headed south when Troy Buswell was raised. Barnett did notably less well than Carpenter responding to Marshall’s concluding question.

Last week’s expectations management exercise by Labor has succeeded in talking down the Centrebet odds on a Liberal win from $4.25 to $3.50, but one news outlet that has loudly refused to play along is The West Australian. On Saturday, the paper reported that notwithstanding reports of five marginal seats showing a 7 per cent swing to the Liberals, “Labor insiders also said the polling indicated the swing would be reduced to a situation where Labor would be returned to government but would lose some seats”. The paper’s Robert Taylor had this to say:

With nothing apparently working, Labor got desperate towards the end of the week, claiming that its own polling showed the Liberals would win the election if it were held this weekend. That’s cynical. What Labor didn’t say was that although close, the polling still suggests the Government would be returned by a reduced majority and with two weeks to go, nightly tracking polls show the swing to the Liberals slowing not gathering pace.

The West sounds confident enough that we can probably infer Labor’s tracking poll paints a similar picture to last fortnight’s Westpoll and Newspoll, perhaps slightly worse than the latter.

UPDATE (28/8/08): Robert Taylor reports: “Nightly tracking polls conducted by both parties show the swing to the Liberals is down to around two per cent, half of what they need to claim government. The Liberals are tracking voters in eight marginal seats, Labor is polling in five But both see the same trend, and it’s a win to Labor … Labor sources said they expected losses to be contained to three or four seats, two of which, Darling Range and Bunbury, are held by Liberal incumbents anyway because of the one vote, one value redistribution. And Labor still has not given up on Albany and Geraldton, held by incumbent Government MPs Peter Watson and Shane Hill. Albany is said to have swung towards the Government in recent days. Both sides believe the Liberals have something of a stranglehold on Kingsley, held by Labor’s Judy Hughes. Ocean Reef, Collie-Preston and Riverton remain in play.

However, the momentum might yet continue to build: the big business “500 Club” has announced it will donate $400,000 to the party’s marginal seats campaign, bridging what was reportedly a massive gap between the parties’ war chests.

Now for an overview of the situation in those marginals, bearing in mind that a net loss of nine seats will cost Labor its majority and most likely produce a minority Liberal government. Let’s start with the seats ABC state political editor Peter Kennedy might have had in mind when he mused on last night’s television news: “Could it be that sitting Labor members have opted for the safer ends of their electorates and left the marginal seats for rookies?”.

Ocean Reef (Labor 1.6%): Labor’s members for Mindarie and Joondalup, John Quigley and Tony O’Gorman, would have done their party a very good turn if they had abandoned their existing seats in the crucial outer northern suburbs to tackle this less attractive new prospect. The seat has instead emerged as a contest between two newcomers, both aged 28: Labor’s Louise Durack, a social worker and organisational officer with the locally based Women’s Healthworks who was hand-picked by Alan Carpenter, and Liberal candidate Albert Jacob, a Joondalup councillor. Labor sources said they were “concerned” about the seat on the basis of marginal seat polling.

Mount Lawley (Labor 5.8%): Nearly two-thirds of the voters in this new seat come from abolished Yokine: perhaps Labor would have done well to keep its member Bob Kucera on board rather than dump him for preselection, leading him to quit the party and initially threaten to run as an independent (he has instead decided to retire). The seat will instead be contested for Labor by one of the highest-profile of Alan Carpenter’s hand-picked candidates, Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and more recently director of former Labor MP John Halden’s lobbying firm Halden Burns. The Liberal candidate is Perth deputy lord mayor Michael Sutherland.

Jandakot (Labor 3.6%): The bulk of this new southern suburbs seat comes from the Liberal-held seats of Murdoch (which has been succeeded by Bateman, to be contested by Christian Porter) and Serpentine-Jarrahdale (whose Liberal member Tony Simpson will contest the radically redrawn Darling Range). Labor’s strength comes from smaller areas in the west of the electorate which have been acquired from the very safe seats of Cockburn and Willagee, both of which have maintained their identity. The member for the former is Energy Minister Fran Logan, who seems an unlikely vote-winner – he has been dubbed the “invisible man” of the campaign due to Labor’s unwillingness to bring him along to such events as yesterday’s wind power photo op in Albany. The member for the latter is Alan Carpenter. Should the Premier have boldly led by example, John Howard-style?

The following are must-wins for the Liberals in the metropolitan area:

Kingsley (Labor 0.0%): The northern suburbs seat of Kingsley was Labor’s only gain of the 2005 election, and had never been held by the party previously. It might be thought that Judy Hughes’s win for Labor was a one-off influenced by the fact that Liberal candidate Colin Edwardes was the husband of outgoing Liberal member Cheryl Edwardes, and also by the candidacy of Marie Evans (whose husband Richard Evans was member for the corresponding federal seat of Cowan from 1996 to 1998) under the “Community 1st” banner, reflecting local divisions in the Liberal Party. Hughes also suffered from the redistribution, which wiped out her 0.8 per cent margin by moving the electorate’s lowest-income suburb of Warwick into the safe Labor seat of Girrawheen. As part of last week’s campaign to dampen expectations, Labor claimed it had given up on the seat.

Riverton (Labor 2.1%): Labor member Tony McRae won the seat from Court government Workplace Relations Minister Graham Kierath in 2001 and survived an avalanche of bad press from The West Australian in the final days of the 2005 campaign, which memorably gave Colin Barnett’s costings debacle second billing to the news that Labor was running a dummy candidate. McRae suffered a more substantial setback during the current term when he was sacked as Environment Minister over dealings with Brian Burke’s lobbying colleague Julian Grill. The Liberal candidate is Mike Nahan, American-accented former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs. Expect to hear a lot from Labor in the coming week about yesterday’s call from the IPA for privatisation of electricity generation and passenger rail networks. A Westpoll survey of 400 voters conducted during the first week of the campaign had the Liberals leading 51-49.

Swan Hills (Labor 3.6%): Labor’s outgoing 31-year-old member Jaye Radisich reportedly has ambitions for a future career in federal politics, but she might have lost a few friends in the party through her determination to abandon this crucial marginal seat in favour of its safe-as-houses neighbour West Swan. Alan Carpenter was determined that West Swan should go to his chief-of-staff Rita Saffioti, and Radisich quit rather than stay put. The seat will be contested for Labor by upper house MP Graham Giffard, who loomed as a potential loser in the game of musical chairs resulting from the reduction of North Metropolitan region from seven members to six. The Liberal candidate is Swan City councillor Frank Alban. Labor says its internal polling has it feeling “concerned” about the seat.

Now the must-win non-metropolitan seats:

Collie-Preston (Labor 0.9%): Collie-Preston merges Labor-held Collie-Wellington with Liberal-held Capel, and has thus emerged as a head-to-head contest between respective sitting members Mick Murray and Steve Thomas. As the map on my electorate page demonstrates, it is strikingly polarised between the intensively Labor-voting coal-mining town of Collie and the smaller town of Allanson to the west, and the strongly conservative agricultural shires of Capel, Dardanup and Donnybrook-Balingup. A former president of the Collie Combined Coalmining Unions Council, Mick Murray was Labor’s best performing candidate at the 2005 election, picking up a 6.7 per cent swing in Collie-Wellington after gaining its predecessor seat of Collie in 2001. Analysis of booth results reveals that this swing was overwhelmingly concentrated in Collie itself, whose five booths swung to Murray by 12.6 per cent compared with 3.9 per cent elsewhere. It can thus be inferred that the Labor margin is boosted by Murray’s popularity with a very particular constituency that has no representation in those areas that were formerly in Capel, where Steve Thomas can instead expect a sophomore surge following his entry to parliament in 2005.

North West (Labor 3.1%): Previously known as North West Coastal, this seat now extends inland to take in the mining towns of Meekatharra and Cue along with the Murchison pastoral area, cutting the margin from 3.7 per cent to 3.1 per cent. However, of more concern to Labor is the departure of sitting member Fred Riebeling, who has been demonstrating his vote-winning ways ever since he won the Ashburton by-election in the dying days of the Lawrence government in 1992. Worse still, the Liberal candidate is Rod Sweetman, who represented the area as member for Ningaloo from 1996 until 2005, when the abolition of his seat had him hunting unsuccessfully for opportunities in Perth. Labor’s candidate is Vince Catania, who has been a member for the corresponding upper house region of Mining and Pastoral since the 2005 election, at which time he was reckoned to be an inner-city blow-in.

The following have been sent from one side of the pendulum to the other by the redistribution:

Darling Range (Labor 0.8%): This seat derives just 15 per cent of its voters from the existing seat of Darling Range, the real successor to which is Kalamunda, which will be contested by Darling Range MP John Day (it has a notional Liberal margin of 0.2 per cent, but the early campaign Westpoll gave John Day a 54-46 lead). The new Darling Range takes half its voters from abolished Serpentine-Jarrahdale, and will accordingly be contested for the Liberals by its sitting member Tony Simpson. Labor’s candidate is Lisa Griffiths, described by the local Comment News as “the only woman in a group of six scientists in WA specialising in electron microscopy”.

Bunbury (Labor 0.9%): It was long anticipated that Bunbury mayor John Castrilli would gain this seat for the Liberals at the 2005 election, but he ended up winning by just 103 votes. Being slightly bigger than the other main regional cities, not all of Bunbury was accommodated by the electorate under the old boundaries, the Labor-voting southern suburbs of Withers and Usher being in abolished Capel. The absorption of those areas has given Labor a 1.5 per cent boost, but the Liberals are reportedly very confident Castrilli should be able to make up the difference. Labor has nominated Peter MacFarlane, director of the Margaret River Regional Wine Centre and candidate for Forrest at last year’s federal election.

Albany (Liberal 2.3%): The other two regional city seats have gone the other way from Bunbury because they have had to make up the numbers from surrounding rural seats. In both cases this meant territory where Labor had played dead to finish behind the Nationals, ensuring they defeated the Liberals on their preferences. Labor thus has a better chance of retaining the seats than the notional margins suggest, as indicated by Alan Carpenter’s visit yesterday to spruik renewable energy (which was reported thus on the front page of today’s West Australian). For their part, the Liberals are promising to build a natural gas pipeline between Bunbury and Albany under a public-private partnership. Labor’s sitting member Peter Watson faces sports physiotherapist Andrew Partington for a second successive election.

Geraldton (Liberal 3.5%): A similar story to Albany, Geraldton was won by Labor’s Shane Hill in 2001 and has moved to the Liberal column after expanding into rural territory from the abolished Nationals seat of Greenough. The Liberal candidate is local farmer Ian Blayney.

Roughies:

Joondalup (Labor 3.6%): Changes of government in 1983, 1993 and 2001 all involved mass transfers of seats in Perth’s volatile northern suburbs mortgage belt, with Tony O’Gorman gaining Joondalup for Labor on the latter occasion. The Liberals would surely be hoping to gain this seat if they wish for a repeat in 2008, but their candidate Milly Zuvela has a remarkably low profile, notwithstanding a stint on Wanneroo City Council late last decade.

Forrestfield (Labor 4.5%): A new seat with no sitting member, so the margin might flatter Labor, who have nominated Andrew Waddell, a former official with the Centre faction Transport Workers Union who has worked since 1999 with the Western Australian Industrial Relations Commission. Here too the Liberals have nominated a candidate without much of a profile, school deputy principal Nathan Morton.

Southern River (Labor 5.1%): This electorate has been substantially redrawn, the existing seat providing it with only 56 per cent of its voters (the rest come from abolished Serpentine-Jarrahdale), so perhaps sitting member Paul Andrews is not as secure as his margin makes him appear. The Liberal candidate is the Reverend Peter Abetz, pastor of the Christian Reformed Church of Willetton and brother of Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz.

Kimberley (Labor 6.3%): I was tempted to put the 5.2 per cent Liberal swing at the 2005 election down to the one-off of Colin Barnett’s canal proposal exciting local hopes of job creation (it was first won for the Liberals in the late sixties due to the local popularity of the Ord River scheme boondoggle). However, a reader has suggested the snap election announcement has left Aboriginal voters in newly acquired Halls Creek and surrounding communities off the rolls, making the seat potentially of interest.

Kalgoorlie (Liberal 7.2%): A very rough roughie maybe, but worth a mention due to the departure of Matt Birney who won the seat for the Liberals for the first time in 2001 and picked up a 7.5 per cent swing against the trend of the 2005 election. The Liberals have nominated 27-year-old pastoralist Nat James, said to have been a surprise preselection winner over Kalgoorlie-Boulder Chamber of Commerce president Guy Brownlee; Labor’s Mathew Cuomo has rather more of a profile as a local lawyer. The race is further complicated by the entry of John Bowler, the Labor-turned-independent member for abolished Murchison-Eyre who remains popular locally despite being sacked as a cabinet minister in 2007 over dealings with Brian Burke and Julian Grill (the latter of whom preceded him as member for Murchison-Eyre). Local observers also aren’t writing off Nationals candidate Tony Crook.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

265 comments on “Half-time report: lower house”

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  1. Your bolded margin for North West is wrong.

    Where might Radisich be headed? Her state seat overlaps with Pearce – which would be a brave battle. And there wouldn’t appear to be a spot available in the Senate.

    Next door Cowan perhaps? Or maybe the easier picking of Swan.

  2. Where might Radisich be headed? Her state seat overlaps with Pearce – which would be a brave battle. And there wouldn’t appear to be a spot available in the Senate.

    Next door Cowan perhaps? Or maybe the easier picking of Swan.

    Anywhere but Pearce, as apparently she was pretty shaken by the rudeness of voters in the wheatbelt parts of the seat during the last federal election when campaigning for Christopher Myson.

  3. Here too the Liberals have nominated a candidate without much of a profile, local teacher Nathan Morton.

    William, he’s actually a School Principal.

  4. This poster might be a bit late if she intends to vote on the 7th 🙂

    This government is arrogan, ignorant and out of touch. Barnett has a proven track record of success in the Western Australian government. It’s time for a new government with fresh ideas that’ll fix 3 major issues: Health, Education and Infrastructure. On Saturday September 7 I’m voting Barnett for a better change for the future and you should to!
    Posted by: Hadji of Padbury 8:40pm today

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24250445-5017005,00.html

  5. While you are correcting factual details Nathan Morton is neither local (lives in Lesmurdie) nor does he work locally (he is from Cecil Andrews High which is not in Forrestfield). His only claim to fame is that he is related to Helen Morton from the Upper House.

  6. Will be fun on the night after one washes off the sunscreen from standing at the booth and has endured counting. I will need an AM radio with headphones wont I.

  7. Will be fun on the night after one washes off the sunscreen from standing at the booth and has endured counting. I will need an AM radio with headphones wont I.

    Depends where you are – most capaign functions will have a large video screen to watch Kerry & Antony, and if you’re in a marginal seat, you might get your mug on TV during a live cross like I did in 2005 🙂

  8. While you are correcting factual details Nathan Morton is neither local (lives in Lesmurdie) nor does he work locally (he is from Cecil Andrews High which is not in Forrestfield). His only claim to fame is that he is related to Helen Morton from the Upper House.

    But is he related to the recently appointed WA LIberal Party Director Ben Morton ? 🙂

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/23/2283431.htm

  9. Top bit of front page of 2mws west///

    “Froget talk of a tight race – labor’s home, says wa’s two best political commentators”

    Paul Murray “The Liberals probably lost the election around lunch on Tuesday, when they failed to deliver tax cuts that seized on the political initiative and the public’s imagination”

    Rob Taylor “Nightly tracking polls conducted by parties show the swing to the Liberals is down to around 2%m half of what they need to claim government”

  10. The West features a Robert Taylor piece headed “Carpenter as good as home as early swing to the Liberals stalls”:

    Sources from both major parties say the swing to the WA Liberals that was evident at the start of the election campaign two weeks ago has stalled and voters are drifting back to the Government, making a Labor victory at the September 6 election a near certainty.

    Nightly tracking polls conducted by both parties show the swing to the Liberals is down to around two per cent, half of what they need to claim government. The Liberals are tracking voters in eight marginal seats, Labor is polling in five But both see the same trend, and it’s a win to Labor.

    Since the leaders’ debate on Monday night, numbers have firmed considerably for Labor with voters believing Alan Carpenter won the contest. Despite the debate being a ratings loser, word of mouth has established in voters’ minds that Mr Carpenter emerged victorious.

    Labor also believes it’s on a winner with its anti-uranium stand, particularly among female voters and despite Mr Capenter’s backflip on deciding to legislate to ban it …

    Labor sources said they expected losses to be contained to three or four seats, two of which, Darling Range and Bunbury, are held by Liberal incumbents anyway because of the one vote, one value redistribution. And Labor still has not given up on Albany and Geraldton, held by incumbent Government MPs Peter Watson and Shane Hill. Albany is said to have swung towards the Government in recent days. Both sides believe the Liberals have something of a stranglehold on Kingsley, held by Labor’s Judy Hughes. Ocean Reef, Collie-Preston and Riverton remain in play.

    The Liberals yesterday launched a new television advertisement targeting law and order, health services, schools, public transport and roads but Labor research shows that so far voters believe its advertising has been more effective.

  11. Rob Taylors article.. highlights

    “Carpenter as good as home as early swing to the Liberals stalls”

    “… the swing to the liberals that was evident at the start of the election campaign two weeks ago has stalled and voters are drifting back to the government, making a Labor victory at the September 6 election a near certainty.”

    Since leaders debate “numbers have firmed considerably for Labor”

    “Labor sources said they expected losses to be contained to three or four seats, two of which, Darling Range and Bunbury, are held by Liberal incumbents anyway”.

    Labor still hoping for Albany and Geraldton. “Albany is said to have swung to the government in recent days”

    Both sides believe Kingsley will almost certainly go Liberal.

    Ocean Reef, Collie-Preston and Riverton remain in play.

    ‘Labor research shows that so far voters believe it advertising has been more effective”

  12. Elsewhere, Taylor says “John Bowler has every chance of picking up the seat of Kalgoorlie from the Liberals while another former Labor ‘rising star’, John D’Orazio, has a slim hope of upsetting the ALP’s Reece Whitby.”

  13. Hmm, I think this is a rerun of 2005 minus the Canal, but replace it with Uranium Mining. I know all about Chickens Hatching etc, but it does warm the cockles a bit and is a good omen for Sunday’s Campaign Launch at a city location opposite Esplanade Train Station 🙂

    And yes I’ll be there 🙂

  14. hile another former Labor “rising star”, John D’Orazio, has a slim hope of upsetting the ALP’s Reece Whitby.

    I wonder if John is counting on the Ethnic vote going his way ? Though he may have made enemies due to the Spagnolo business.

  15. The Liberals yesterday launched a new television advertisement targeting law and order, health services, schools, public transport and roads but Labor research shows that so far voters believe its advertsing has been more effective.

    Somehow I don’t think the Libs Public Transport ads will work, considering Richard Court’s record re closing the Fremantle Line, and the privatisation of Busses, as well as closing the Midland Workshops.

  16. Sources from both major parties say the swing to the WA Liberals that was evident at the start of the election campaign two weeks ago has stalled and voters are drifting back to the Government, making a Labor vicoty at the September 6 election a near certainty.

    I notice this was also the case in 2005 with the Libs in front until the Leaders debate, and then it drifted back to Gallop. I think the more people hear Barnett ramble on, the less appealing he is and it reminds voters why they didn’t vote for him last time.

  17. Frank, the Freo line was Charles Court, not the idiot son. 😉

    How are the Liberals playing public transport? Promising to rip up the Mandurah line and turn it into a busway if elected?

  18. Taylor reckons McGinty, Kobelke, Ripper, MacTiernan and Roberts “should move aside to make way for the incoming talant” as “they have had eight years to make their mark and none of them is on the way to the top job”. Tips Michelle Roberts, Fran Logan, David Templeman and perhaps also Margaret Quirk for the chop.

  19. Frank, the Freo line was Charles Court, not the idiot son. 😉

    whoops mea culpa, but the idiot son did scrap passenger service assistants and introduced those useless Chubb guards thanks to a beatup over some girls getting their jeans stolen off railway property.

  20. Taylor reckons McGinty, Kobelke, Ripper, MacTiernan and Roberts “should move aside to make way for the incoming talant” as “they have had eight years to make their mark and none of them is on the way to the top job”. Tips Michelle Roberts, Fran Logan, David Templeman and perhaps also Margaret Quirk for the chop.

    McGinty and Ripper I’d expect because the West have had it in for them since Day 1 and also Michelle Roberts. Logan might get a Junior Ministry of some sort, Margaret Quirk has been okay. I reckon the biggest casualty will be Mark McGowan from education, which might go to Michelle Roberts as she is a former Italian Teacher.

  21. And you think that trumps the eclipse of the New Right?

    Well with Jaye and D’Orazio out of the equation the New Right is all but dead 🙂

  22. Did Robert Taylor mention Swan Hills ? As I hear Graham Giffard sent out two flyers, one with achievents in the Hills with a Map, and a flyer on Water Rebates, which were sent to people in Parkerville yesterday.

  23. Hence the pigs-might-fly status of Roberts replacing McGowan.

    Well it was only a theory – How many other Chalkies are there besides Ravlich & Ripper ?

  24. I have heard that Alannah may be moving to State Development or something similar.

    She does seem quite committed to her current portfolio however, especially since she is heading the taskforce that will map out Perths public transport needs over the next 20 years.

  25. I have heard that Alannah may be moving to State Development or something similar.

    She does seem quite committed to her current portfolio however, especially since she is heading the taskforce that will map out Perths public transport needs over the next 20 years.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if they create a super ministry with Planning & Infrastructure and hive off to a junior Minister the nuts and bolts of Transport like Taxis and the day to day operation of public transport.

  26. Oh and Reece Whitby and Rita Saffioti win Morley & West Swan respectively, as well as Graham Giffard in Swan Hills, expect them to be in the Ministry

  27. that should read IF 🙂 but both being fairly safe seats, the ALP should retain both, but Morley may produce an upset.

  28. “Margaret Quirk has been ok”? Even as a dyed in the wool Labor supporter I would have to say she is the most un-ok parliamentarian on either side. Her behaviour over the issue of the female drug dealer jailed in Thailand was in my view disgusting and dispicable.

  29. “Margaret Quirk has been ok”? Even as a dyed in the wool Labor supporter I would have to say she is the most un-ok parliamentarian on either side. Her behaviour over the issue of the female drug dealer jailed in Thailand was in my view disgusting and dispicable.

    That may be true, but totally understandable in light of trying to minimise any backlash from the Howard Sattler types.

  30. Dehumanising people for opportunisic personal gain and aggrandisement is never forgiveable under any circumstances Frank, sorry.

  31. Dehumanising people for opportunisic personal gain and aggrandisement is never forgiveable under any circumstances

    I totally agree, but can you imagine the outcry if she agreed in the first instance. With the Justice System it’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t – especially with our redneck media.

  32. Frank, no matter what the greater good may be, people of principle should not descend to the level of the Sattlers and Howards of this world to gain political advantage, especially when the welfare of another human being is at stake.

    To do so displays a fatal character flaw which in my view precludes them from any entitlement to hold high office.

    The end never justifies the means.

    But yes, I appreciate the pressures she was under.

  33. ‘if you’re in a marginal seat, you might get your mug on TV during a live cross like I did in 2005″

    Wear a cap with a big PB stencilled on it Frank so we can recognise your ugly mug if it happens again.

  34. even Paul Murray has come out calling it for Labour in this morning’s West.

    who would have thought it?

    I can only think that with both the Libs and the ALP saying that they expect to lose, that they are terrified of complete voter apathy and want to panic their core voters.

    my personal theory is that toggle voters do not care about either party enough to vote for them. They have not taken to Carpenter, and want to spank him for a lacklustre tenure and a few gaffs, but they like the Libs even less, and don’t trust them to govern any better. I think the female vote will be decisive, and the Buswell issue has not gone away yet. I expect a few choice shots from Sue Walker aimed at the Lib Boys Club.

    The minor parties are not a serious option in the Lower House, so what do you do? I reckon both parties fear that most folk plan to stay home or vote informal.

    I think I tipped Michelle Roberts and Margaret Quirk to get boned some weeks ago – they are in the factions that Carps has sought to neuter. He has tried to kill the factions by creating one of his own, so I agree with Frank that Whitby, Saffioti and Giffard will get parachuted into cabinet if they win their seats and the ALP retain government.

  35. So Labor’s predictions of electoral defeat last week had the desired effect and scared some people away from giving a protest vote to Barnett?
    I know next to nothing about WA politics, but from the little I’ve seen, Carpenter seems to me a competent enough bloke! All Labor has to do is remind people of Colin Barnett messing up his sums in 2005, that ought to seal the deal.

  36. Couple of points,

    Radisich is finished in WA. Her faction, the New Right, has completely imploded, and its major protagonists have either been executed or are marking time until the end of their careers. She would have about 5% of the votes needed to gain a winnable seat Federally, and that is unlikely to change in the next decade.

    Watch the polls by the end of this week – afer the Libs have been advertising for 5 or 7 days, it will be interesting to see how the electorate reacts.

  37. L #46 ….”Watch the polls by the end of this week – afer the Libs have been advertising for 5 or 7 days, it will be interesting to see how the electorate reacts.”

    That latest TV advert without any audio (the one that completely ignores the needs of those who are visually impaired) is so bloody annoying, I reckon it will help the Govt, not hinder them.

  38. Labor has to win Swan Hills first, and given William’s summary of Giffard’s attempts to get a safe seat, and his lack of joy, it would seem unlikely he’d have enough support to get into cabinet.

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