Roy Morgan’s latest face-to-face survey of 1799 voters has Labor’s lead up to 57-43 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor is up 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 47 per cent, and the Coalition down 2 per cent to 37.5 per cent.
Other stuff:
I appeared yesterday before the Perth hearing of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election, where I argued the increasingly problematic STV Senate system should be replaced by good old-fashioned list system PR with seats allocated using the New Zealand-style Sainte-Laguë formula. Not a chance in hell of this happening of course, but as Homer Simpson would say, at least I’m out there doin’ stuff. Perhaps I would have done better to have fallen in behind the Greens’ Commonwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008, which I hadn’t given due consideration as I wrongly believed it required full numbering of above-the-line preferences. When told it was optional preferential, I instead argued it would amount to a New South Wales-style de facto largest remainder system, with the potential to produce disproportional results: for example, parties which get 1.5 and 0.6 quotas on the primary vote could win one seat each despite the former party having won well over twice as many votes (as Antony Green puts it, methods like Sainte-Laguë ensure that each MP represents roughly the same number of voters). However, I now see it requires that a minimum of four boxes be numbered, which might solve or at least alleviate this difficulty although there remains the likely problem of a higher informal vote. I remain open to persuasion on any of these points, and might yet make a supplementary submission.
The Electoral Commission of Queensland has finalised its boundaries for the state redistribution. The new electorates which were named Macrossan, Samsonvale and Dalby in the original proposal will instead be named Dalrymple, Pine Rivers and Condamine.
Christian Kerr of The Australian reckons blogs, and polling blogs in particular, contain paranoia about certain journalists, certain newspapers (and) certain pollsters. What a thing to say …
Grog
Didn’t Rudd win more medals than our men’s swimming team? 😀
I think your weak comments are enough for both of us to dine out on dont you ShowsOn?
[ShowsOn 8
Please dont verbal me.]
LOL!
[I think your weak comments are enough for both of us to dine out on dont you ShowsOn?]
Oh no! Please don’t verbal me! Please don’t do it!
Wow, Morgan Poll makes it to the MSM.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/poll-shows-rudd-would-be-reelected-20080822-40cs.html
[Wow, Morgan Poll makes it to the MSM.]
Silly headline though. Hasn’t every poll since the last election shown that Rudd would’ve been re-elected?
55 ShowsOn – Yeah, you wonder what is different about this one.
55 ShowsON – yep hold the front page: No Change!!!!
ShowsOn
You seem only to be able to react and not to propose. I guess there must always be more Indians than chiefs in this world.
[You seem only to be able to react and not to propose. I guess there must always be more Indians than chiefs in this world.]
I’d rather be an Indian, than a chief with a completely incoherent theory!
And plus I have proposed lots of things, some of which you agreed with!
So maybe you are verballing yourself.
ShowsOn, I appreciate ESJ isn’t Snow White, but he’s actually been in good form lately and your comment at #8 wasn’t terribly constructive. Same goes for the other person who took a potshot at him the other day for no particular reason, whoever it was.
On the Christian Kerr thing, I’m reminded of Oscar Wilde’s comment that the only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about. Kerr looks like Caroline O’s replacement as the resident lightweight colour writer.
If I remember rightly, every national poll since Latham’s resignation has shown Labor ahead.
On the naming of new Qld electorates, the ditching of ‘Macrossan’ (an nth generation legal family) is exquisitely timed. John Murtagh Macrossan, a typically (b)anal ex Chief Justice, died two weeks ago.
Halperin at Time has reported that Romney is McCain’s running mate.
http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/21/2-gop-sources-its-romney/
That locks in the polygamist millionaire vote.
Adam noted: ”The simple solution is to join the 99.36% of Australians who don’t bother reading it. (Aust pop = 21,370,000. The Aust circulation = 136,000, or 0.64%)”
The AFR this week published figures on the number of giveaways included in newspaper circulations (mostly to hotels, but presumably including tricks like The Aust being available to that underprivileged group – uni students and staff – for $20 a year). The Aust headed the list with over 6% of its pretty weak circulation being giveaways.
It’s a loss leader with declining pretensions to leading debate. Just a shame that as it declines, we are even less likely to get what we need, an alternative national daily.
Sorry about the link. Here’s the guts of it
Obama getting ready to announce his decision, with Democratic sources continuing to say “Watch Biden.”
2 Republican sources say McCain has apparently settled on Romney as his pick, but no offer has been made.
And/but: NY Times: “People close to the campaign also floated a wild-card choice, Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq.”
http://thepage.time.com/
“paranoia about certain journalists, certain newspapers (and) certain pollsters”
I think he needs to at least show that that it is “paranoia” and not valid criticism – after all the continual uproar may well have solid foundations. To make his point he needs to look at the journalists in question and reason if their work is consistently bias, inaccurate or misleading and if it seems to be a deliberate pattern.
Yes the bloggers probably do go overboard and get highly frustrated Because they are powerless to do anything. If you see people consistently lying or giving misleading information to the public with a view to influencing elections you are of course powerless unless you can buy an TV station or newspaper, and no doubt anger ensues.
McCain had to ask a staffer how many houses he owns. This is with something like 1.8 million empty houses, everybody subprime being turfed out of their houses, and the housing mortgage defaults moving up the scale.
Obama only owns one house, but the chap who was generous with the largesse in the financing of it is having a bit of difficulty indictment-wise.
America, America.
[If I remember rightly, every national poll since Latham’s resignation has shown Labor ahead.]
I think there have been a few ties since then.
What we need is an Australian equivalent of Real Clear Politics: a website linking to all the best in the daily press and the magazines, with some contributed articles, plus all the poll data. William, there’s a project for you.
Diogenes,
Bought The Age of Reagan 1974-2008
and
Nixonland
today.
[What we need is an Australian equivalent of Real Clear Politics: a website linking to all the best in the daily press and the magazines,]
http://www.breakfastpolitics.com/
[Bought The Age of Reagan 1974-2008]
Why did the age end this year? The U.S. budget is back in massive deficit, which is Reaganomics 101.
Bush adopts Obama’s Iraq policy:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/us-to-exit-iraq-in-2011/2008/08/22/1219262526938.html
ESJ
I’ve seen excellent reviews for Nixonland.
The Legacy of Ashes book was very good. Nixon really got done in by the CIA. I don’t think they enjoyed his quote “What do those clowns at Langley do all day?”
In terms of the misuse and abuse of the CIA, I was a bit surprised to find that the Kennedys (Robert more than John) and Johnson were truly revolting people, much more so than Nixon . Nixon really botched Chile unforgivably (and Kissinger was probably more to blame for that) but he was pretty tame compared to JFK, RFK and LBJ.
Diogenes as Mao was reputed to have said “I prefer dealing with rightists, they are more honest”.
ESJ, I think you’d find liberals, as in centrists, even more honest.
Graeme @ 66
I look forward to reading the AntiGG with my morning cuppa. Plenty of quality stuff in the AntiGG. True, the quality is diluted with a fair bit of rubbish. Still, even the rubbish gives me enjoyment. My favourite comedy sketches are by Shanahan and Sheridan. The really fun bit is to look at the headline and predict the main points. Not hard to do with Shanahan. I hope Costello does become opposition leader because it will be interesting to see Shanahan wet himself on paper. Sheridan is an active reader and thinker and occasionally surprises. He is also well-connected. The editorial pieces are so far up themselves that the writers must be wondering where all the daylight went. They are generally well worth a giggle or two.
ESJ That is a line from the opera “Nixon in China.” I’d like to see a source that Mao actually said it, although I don’t doubt that as an evil old cynic he admired other evil old cynics like Nixon and Kissinger.
A in C @ 62
Last time coalition lead Labor in Newspoll was August 2006. And I think Latham was long gone then.
ESJ
Mao may be right. If you lined up the Post WWII presidents by party it’s;
Truman, JFK, LBJ, Carter, Clinton vs Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush I and Bush II.
IMHO, there’s not a lot to chose between those teams in honesty. Truman and Eisenhower cancel each other. LBJ and Nixon/Ford were on a par. Carter and Reagan were about the same. If you put Bill up against the Bushes, I think he was more dishonest than them (Bush II is saved by his stupidity).
When are the Libs going to get rid of Mich,he’s far right.get a decent opposition,they are rabble at the moment.(example Branda).
I am curious here: Is honesty here the degree of congruence between what folk say in public and what they know to be true? Or is it something else?
I got upset when channel 7 would not view protests in Tebit,where’s free of speech.Gone out the door?
I have better things to do in the morning than watch Denis Shanahan masturbate.
wow
what a result for the fibs
irrelevance leading to obscurity
actually re-reading aust prime mins by michelle g.
we are living in very interesting times and i think the GG would love a scullin type scenario.
ps loved keating on abc2- wonder how many fibs complained 🙂
Adam 79 –
not much of a quote but Page 625 of Nixonland there is a reference
” The chairman (Mao) …. discoursed about his preference for dealing with rightwingers”
Quoted here too Adam:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/25/books/review/Gaddis.t.html?pagewanted=print
Best quote I heard about Mao was when Gough visited him, Gough was told that Mao didn’t like small talk.
So Gough asked Mao, what do you think would have happened if Krushev was assassinated instead of Kennedy, after a slight pause Mao said “I don’t think that Mrs Krushek would have married Mr Onnassis.
Rod
my fav was when mao was asked how many troops in red army
answer:as many as the soil will carry!
numbers were irrelevant and still are methinks
89 rod, it is a good anecdote; me thinks Gough probably took some liberties in the telling, but still; it’s gold.
[I have better things to do in the morning than watch Denis Shanahan masturbate.]
heh heh you said masturbate 🙂
Adam and ESJ
The transcripts you refer to are the Nixon-Mao conversation, Beijing Feb 21, 1972 in The Kissinger Transcripts.
Mao said to Nixon “I voted for you when your country was in havoc during your last electoral campaign… I am comparatively happy when those on the right come to power.”
Nixon replied “Those on the right can do what those on the left talk about.”
CHRIS KERR says in ‘oz’ :
“The sheer fact it’s mainstream, though, means it must offer two crucial elements missing from the world of the blogs. They are balance and fact.”
Chris Kerr ? Kerr’s Kerr’s junior Thats like saying th dominant food Supermarkets Coles and Woolworths ar mainstream , and therefore offer most value for money
Market dominance in any Industry including Media is an economic result of economic power , and ‘balance’ and ‘fact’ ar not only an irrelevant factor , but normally result in ‘imbalance’ and ‘spin’ …th antithisus of ‘balance’ and ‘fact’
Pity Kerr’s Kerr’s junior is not up to th challenge of defending posters demolition of his sanctimonious assertiion
A war with the blogosphere can only be good for the blogosphere – keep em complaining.
68
Thomas Paine Says:
Yes the bloggers probably do go overboard and get highly frustrated Because they are powerless to do anything.
Oh, I don’t know. Seemed to me that certain denizens of the emerging blogworld managed to justifiably get right up the noses of Mr Shanahan and The Oz editorial writers over some serious issues during the federal election campaign. I think the MSM has learnt an important lesson in recent times, that the era when they can say anything they like and not get publicly called on it is well and truly over. They no longer have unchallenged control of the public debate like they did a decade ago, let alone a half century ago. And a damn good thing too.
Thomas
You ar quite correct , however would be quite happy to debate this guy on his claims , if my logics didn’t confuse him then my lingos might
Frankly i see Kerr’s Kerr’s junior article as th first stages of concesion of defeat by MSN of there total dominance of informing & influencing people
Lateline..(Virginia aside)
Hewson was on. And was his usual self. Informed, realistic, smart. Just as were Whitlam, Hawkey and Paul.
Hewson, Keating et al, had the brains and the smarts to work together towards resolving the odd problem. About the money, about the water. Esp. South Australia.
Sadly and hopelessly, it ain’t going to happen. If anyone in Fed Libs had the slightest idea, hands would be joined. Nelson or any Lib just won’t!
And, I am seriously annoyed with Kevin. Thanks for nuthin. The Coorong, you know. Not to mention the drinking water.
WD STEVIE HOOKER!!!
Oh Wow! Steve Hooker