Morgan: 57-43

Roy Morgan’s latest face-to-face survey of 1799 voters has Labor’s lead up to 57-43 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor is up 1.5 per cent on the primary vote to 47 per cent, and the Coalition down 2 per cent to 37.5 per cent.

Other stuff:

• I appeared yesterday before the Perth hearing of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election, where I argued the increasingly problematic STV Senate system should be replaced by good old-fashioned list system PR with seats allocated using the New Zealand-style Sainte-Laguë formula. Not a chance in hell of this happening of course, but as Homer Simpson would say, at least I’m out there doin’ stuff. Perhaps I would have done better to have fallen in behind the Greens’ Commonwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008, which I hadn’t given due consideration as I wrongly believed it required full numbering of above-the-line preferences. When told it was optional preferential, I instead argued it would amount to a New South Wales-style de facto “largest remainder” system, with the potential to produce disproportional results: for example, parties which get 1.5 and 0.6 quotas on the primary vote could win one seat each despite the former party having won well over twice as many votes (as Antony Green puts it, methods like Sainte-Laguë ensure that “each MP represents roughly the same number of voters”). However, I now see it requires that a minimum of four boxes be numbered, which might solve or at least alleviate this difficulty – although there remains the likely problem of a higher informal vote. I remain open to persuasion on any of these points, and might yet make a supplementary submission.

• The Electoral Commission of Queensland has finalised its boundaries for the state redistribution. The new electorates which were named Macrossan, Samsonvale and Dalby in the original proposal will instead be named Dalrymple, Pine Rivers and Condamine.

Christian Kerr of The Australian reckons blogs, and “polling blogs” in particular, contain “paranoia about certain journalists, certain newspapers (and) certain pollsters”. What a thing to say …

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

339 comments on “Morgan: 57-43”

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  1. Ron 298

    Please don’t try to draw me into that game. In post 277 I said “This is not to defend Putin, but it explains how leaders like him can become popular in countries which have been belittled.”

    I do not think it is correct to suggest that I endorsed invasion of anyone. I was against the immoral invasion of Iraq in 2003, and am now equally opposed to the immoral invasion of Georgia. I just think we need to understand why these thigns happen to avoid more in the future. We need to realise what we (the west) do which makes enemies in the first place, if we wish to avoid conflict.

  2. In international relations, national integrity and rights of people to seek independence you either have principles, UN Charter etc or else you have the rule of the gun. Part of the problem with US and its Australian acolytes as its eager ally is that there is little weight of experience to suggest a positive balance of principles as opposed to self interest. In that case its not much good complaining when others use the same rules.
    US propping up Pol Pot and supporting and funding opposition to Vietnam after its intervention to remove his clique after years of border aggression a reminder of the lack of principles. Blank cheque support for Israel annexing Palestinian land similar. Talking about democracy and evil regimes just avoids rational analysis.
    Independent international policy for Australia is fundamental.

  3. Boerwar @ 278

    I am sure that any day now we will see an article in The Australian by the balanced, factual and nuanced Christian Kerr exposing the rotten corruption at the heart of ‘right intellectual’ think tanks, their industry puppetmasters, their MSM parrots, and their corrupt lobbying practices.*Holds breath, waiting.*

    I think you will die waiting for any suggestion of impropriety from The Australian regarding the funding of the Institute of Public Affairs by Big Oil, Big Mining and Big Tobacco.

    News Ltd also funds the Institute of Public Affairs according to SourceWatch. :mrgreen:

  4. “Keating expressed far better than I what I feel was the problem with Georgia. Yes the Russians have behaved badly, but that is the consequence of bad western policy towards them”

    I do not see a ‘consequence’ of whatever Western behavour there has been towards Russia , and any relationship to th invasion by Russia of Georgia That implys somehow th West is partly responsible for th invasion by Russia of Georgia , for which I believe Russia is wholly responsible & should wear th full odour Whether Putin is popular in Russia because he claims th West treats Russia poorly is not surprising as hecontrols th Press , but thats got nothing to do with a Georgian invasion justification

    As an aside , Georgia , a democratic sovereign Nation ITSELF sought Nato & EU membership , and has wished this ever since its independence from Russia in 1991 Neither Nato or EU solicited Georgia , its other way around , so much so Nato & EU hav kept putting Georgia off with conditions that needed to be met So russia can not even blame th West for deliberately encircling it by soliciting Georgia

    Whatever ar legitimate grievances of Ossettians , believe Georgia bears responsibility , requiring negotiation

    As to Paul , his speech centred on th absence of a new world governing body to accomodate Russia & China to hav agreed principles etc , but given Russia’s veto record in UN Security Council would not hold my breath

  5. The 7.30 Report was worth watching tonight. Kerry interviewed the three balance of power holders in the senate.

    The class and experience of Bob Brown put those two novices of Fielding and Xenephon to shame.

    Xenephon; will oppose fuelwatch for no reason given giving the impression he simply feels like it.

    Fielding; will oppose alcopops tax because you will not be told by your mates that you have had enough to drink.

    Brown; wants assurances that some restrictions will be placed such as less advertising of alcohol assiciated with sports, wants luxury cars to be environmentally friendly, and wants consumers to be informed of petrol prices.

    Four Corners on that amatuer Allbull right now, Bludgers.

  6. #302

    Your argument relies on a 1970’s USA alleged propping up of Pol Pot as somehow explaining away Russia’s invasion of Georgia , as if 2 wrongs make a right….and as if Russia and USA hav same values for its own citizens

    Russia is a thuggish Dictatorship whose long 1900’s history is completely filled with savagry

    Th Wests record in comparison in 1900’s including USA has been fiilled with many positive assistence for other Countrys including ‘oz’ Of course USA has also conducted self interest & selective FA as well for which they ar criticised , but lets not compare th Russian solution of life & right to th Western solution of life & rights

    Is it so hard to condemn Russia over Georgia , without slipping in USA , because when USA criticism on Iraq is mentioned , I do not hear compilmentary criticism of Russia

  7. Ronster

    I hesitate to post this but you are going to find out sooner or later.

    The Russian parliament’s upper house voted unanimously today in favor of recognizing the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions that sparked Russia’s first foreign incursion since the Soviet era.

    “Today we are faced with, I’m not afraid to say, a historic decision, to call upon the president of the Russian Federation to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” Sergei Mironov, the speaker of the upper house, said in an address to lawmakers in Moscow today. Recognizing the two regions would ensure their “security” after Georgia committed “genocide” in South Ossetia, Mironov said.

  8. Ron,
    I would take PK’s word on this before I take your prejudiced view on the situation on Russia, China and the USA.

  9. Wow, the Fibs have got a real good candidate for the leadership in Turnbull. Like Latham who couldn’t run Liverpool City Council, how can Straightbull be trusted with the Australian economy, where he couldn’t even value FAI Insurance.

    Turnbull, truly, all perception – no substance!

  10. Diogenes

    I missed 7.30 report but what do you think of the prospects of a DD? If the Libs and Independents overplay their hand they will soon give Rudd the trigger. If they back down after having taken a stand they will look weak. On current opinion polls I woudl imagine Xenephon is safe even with half his former vote, but Fielding would surely struggle to get relected even with the smaller quotas. Hence I hope Rud sticks ot his guns on the budget. The revenue measures were prudent in fighting inflation, and there seems no reason to back down on a luxury car tax or an alcopops tax that was realy just removing an anomaly. Or do you think the Libs would just back down and not give them the chance? That wouldn’t help whoever was their leader either of course.

    Does anyone know on current numbers what change woudl happen in the Senate if there was a double dissolution?

  11. Muskiemp

    I would take PK’s word on this before I take your prejudiced view on the situation on Russia, China and the USA.”

    Why don’t you check facts before running that form a blog
    I NEVER mentioned China at all
    I simply mentioned Russia’s Security Council record , which IF you knew anything about PK ‘s views you would hav known they ar same as mine !

    What PK was broadly discusing was a new World gpverning body with agreed principals notwithstanding

    Ar you also having a problem in condemning Russia , without slipping in USA somewhere

  12. Has anyone done any research into the olympic effect?

    For example, if tonights Newspoll level goes up 1% for the ALP, does that mean there is 1% of the electorate who change their vote whenever they feel OK about thier country and don’t give a sh!t about who is in power?

  13. Mr Squiggle

    I have no idea on any pol effect but I read a good economics paper some years ago showing that there was a quite clear (statisticaly significant) correlation between Australian sporting success and the Oz share market! Hopefully the voters aren’t as irrational and easily swayed as our finance “gurus” 🙂

  14. Socrates

    The Ruddster doesn’t seem like a DD kind of guy to me. None of the blocked legislation is worth going to a DD over IMO. He wouldn’t want to hang his hat on any of the fairly trivial policies that are on the table ATM. But I agree with GG that the carbon-trading scheme, which is still a long way from being legislated, would be a worthy casus belli.

    The record of how a Government does in a DD isn’t all that flash. There have only been 5 or 6 and it’s about 50% whether you win or not. Hawkie did one over the Australia Card and won but still didn’t have the balance of power in the Senate.

    William or Antony Green (and probably anyone you could hit throwing a dart out of a window randomly) could provide a much better analysis of the history of DDs than me.

    But I would be willing to bet very big money that Mr X and a like-minded high-profile person or two would win at least two senate seats in a DD in SA.

  15. Geez Ron, on Russia and Georgia you’re like a broken record. Do you think of anything else?

    Me? I’m just an old-fashioned endless tape. “”Pot”, “Kettle”… that sort of thing.

    The 4-Corners tonight reflected my feelings about Turnbull well. Part of me likes him and the other part loathes him. Someone interviewed during the program said, “You either love him or loathe him”. For myself, I’m having two-bob each way.

    The opening voice over asked, “But does Turnbull have a fatal flaw?”.

    In my opinion, yes he does.

    If his recent diatribes in the Herald are anything to go by, Turnbull can’t resist the temptation to advertise himself as he smartest – and rudest – guy in the room. I think he would make a great Labor minister, a huge contributor… but as a Liberal PM, not in a thousand wet dreams. Turnbull has missed his vocation. He’s just too much of a smartarse to be popularly acclaimed as PM.

    Within weeks he’d be up to his ears in shitfights with the “Liberal power brokers” and would therefore fail.

    As we learned tonight: Malcolm’s too full of himself, too vain and much too treacherous.

    Nelson with talent.

    Many Packer Haters will see the revelation that Kerry lied through his teeth to the House Of Reps Inquiry as post facto justification for their distaste for the man; that Turnbull delivered him a well-deserved come-uppance. But The Lib Nasties won’t forget what he did to Packer. They’ll view it as “Once a rat, always a rat.”

    Bye, bye, Malcolm.

    You should’a joined the Labor Party. They know how to make use of a good head kicker.

  16. Ron

    The legislation for Russia to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent and sovereign nations now goes to Medvedev. If he agrees, the Russians would set up an embassy in both those “countries”, provide economic and possibly military aid to them, help organise elections etc etc. It could get very ugly.

  17. Obviously I’m in minority here , but not with th Leaders of Europe about Russia

    Sarkozy calls crisis EU summit on Georgia, Russia[fr][de]
    Published: Monday 25 August 2008
    European Union leaders will meet in Brussels on 1 September for an extraordinary summit to review their relationship with Moscow after the crisis in Georgia revived East-West tensions reminiscent of the Cold War era.

  18. There won’t be a double dissolution under the current electoral system. Who knows who would win the 12th seat in each state under group ticket voting. Group ticket voting is bad enough electing six members, but it would become a farce electing 12 members.

  19. Diogenes, carbon trading may not be a good double dissolution bill. It would require delegated regulations that the Senate could disallow. The lesson of the Australia Card debate in 1987 is that even if you have the numbers to use the double dissolution path to pass legislation, it would be useless if the Senate would continue to be bloody-minded and simply disallow any regulations under the legislation. The legislation for carbon trading would be hard enough to draft, without drafting it to survive a double dissolution.

  20. Diogenes 316.

    Probably agree with you on the DD – none of the blocked bills were key election promises. As you say though, carbon trading would be sufficient reason for one – that was a key election promise hence Labor has a clear mandate to deliver it.

    Interesting that the DD outcomes are so poor. I suppose that reinforces teh view that the voters don’t react well to them being called frivously in which case your comment is all the more correct. Didn’t Whitlam call one in 1974?

  21. Though, on second thoughts, it depends on how complex the regulations are. The Senate can allow or disallow regulations, but it can’t disentangle the bits it doesn’t like. There was a case some time ago where the Senate tried to disallow certain changes to air traffic regulations, but the consequence would have been to disallow all regulation of air space and the Senate calmed down.

    The Australia Card was stopped because the bill gave the minister the power to issue a regulation on when the use of the card was to come into force. That was a very easy regulation to disallow.

    I’m sure if the carbon trading scheme does end up going through a double dissolution, they’ll make the regulations as intertwined as possible.

  22. Antony

    Thanks for that. Did the Australia Card really die based on a single phrase which made it unworkable and needing a rewrite or was that an excuse for Hawke to ditch it?

  23. Kevin07 would not give a DD a seconds thought , quota halves allowing chance of more minority Party(s) and therefore more potential dificult negotiations

  24. I don’t have a link for this one yet but Dennis sent me the draft.

    Despite two weeks of damaging speculation about the Liberal leadership, Kevin Rudd has been unable to make any headway in the most recent Newspoll with the result being within the MOE. Nelson’s approval rating seems to be the only factor keeping the Labor government’s nose in front of the Coalition. With renewed speculation that highly-fancied and electorally-popular Peter Costello will be drafted for the Liberal Party leadership in a bloodless coup, the chances of Kevin Rudd being re-elected look increasingly remote based on this latest Newspoll, exclusive to The Australian.

  25. Diogenes, the Hawke government did not control the Senate in 1987, and the Coalition and Democrats made it clear they would use the Senate’s ability to scrutinise regulations to disallow the implementation of the Australia Card. As the Card was only the excuse for the 1987 DD, I think the government was quite happy to drop it.

    To be honest, I don’t think the Senate would use its regulations power to block carbon trading. The government is clearly angling to come to some arrangement with the opposition on the issue. Even if the next election gives the Greens the sole balance of power, I don’t think Labor will budge from its position. Labor will do a deal with the Coalition, or put the Greens in a pincer by saying vote for our bill or you get nothing, and then blame the Greens if the bill doesn’t go through.

    Back in 1993, the 2 WA Greens did that to Labor on the Mabo bill. A bill had to go through to create a legal framework for Native Title, and the 2 WA Senators forced Labor to their position. The position is reversed on carbon trading, because there is no legal framework without the legislation. If Labor can’t do a deal with the Coalition, Labor can play hard ball with the Greens by saying its vote for Labor’s bill or you have nothing. That’s not to say the Greens aren’t justified in trying to toughen up the legislation when it eventually appears, and it is certainly in line with the mandate the Greens have received from the electorate, but even with the sole balance of power, they won’t have a strong bargaining position.

  26. Just to clarify what I meant by that, I mean that if push comes to shove, Labor could wear there being no carbon trading scheme if the only alternative was a scheme that the opposition could run a scare campaign on. Labor’s committment to carbon trading will not extend to signing what it believes to be a death warrant.

  27. Latest Newpoll

    BRENDAN Nelson has secured a modest improvement in fortunes as the nation’s alternative prime minister while Australians were distracted by the two-week Olympic carnival.

    However, the latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the Opposition Leader continuing to flatline on an approval rating in the mid-teens.

    And as the Coalition partyroom meets today after weeks of leadership speculation over the future of former treasurer Peter Costello, the poll also shows little change in support for the major parties or their leaders.

    It reveals that Dr Nelson’s rating as preferred prime minister has improved slightly from 12 per cent to 14 per cent as Kevin Rudd slipped three points to 65 per cent. The shifts were within Newspoll’s margin of error.

    “All we’ve got here is a slight erosion of Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister,” Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy told The Australian Online. “My gut tells me, the world’s been on hold for the Olympics and therefore nothing has changed.”

    According to Newspoll, full details of which will be published in The Australian tomorrow, support for Labor fell by one percentage point on a two-party preferred basis, based on preference flows at the last election, from 57 per cent to 56 per cent. Support for the Coalition increased by from 43 per cent to 44 per cent – still below their support at the November election of 47.3 per cent.

  28. Apart from halving of Quota’s , Kevin07 is not going to a DD election proposing to increase costs (efectively a tax) , no govt has ever done so Th ‘benefits’rewards’ side of ETS (TETM) ar not due for legislation till June 2009

  29. It will be interesting to see how the conservatives react to the new senate structure too. No more hollow threats from Barnaby about crossing the floor, and if the Greens and Independents get too harrassed by the conservatives,the conservatives could find themselves effectively sidelined much of the time.

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