WA election minus 16 days

• Call it expectations management if you will, but Labor is sending out strong signals that it is in big trouble despite what the betting markets think (Centrebet continues to offer $1.18 for Labor and $4.25 for Liberal). Yesterday Alan Carpenter spoke of his party being in a “knife-edge political situation”. Geof Parry of Seven News has today been told internal polling shows Labor headed for defeat on the back of a 7 per cent swing, although two-thirds expect them to win. The ABC was told the party had given up on its most marginal seat of Kingsley (although local resident Bogart writes in comments that he has “received calls and stuff in letter box last night”), and is “concerned” about Riverton and Swan Hills (with respective post-redistribution margins of 2.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent, and a prematurely outgoing sitting member in the latter case), as well as the new seats of Ocean Reef (notional margin of 1.6 per cent) and Jandakot (3.6 per cent). The latter comes as a surprise, as Labor was earlier trumpeting polling showing it ahead 56-44, and should presumably have cause for optimism due to the Fiona Stanley Hospital and Perth to Mandurah rail line.

• Upper house voting tickets were lodged on Monday, and can most easily be perused at ABC Elections. A lot more on this shortly. The Nationals have predictably backed off from their threats to preference Labor ahead of the Liberals depending on the reception to its push for 25 per cent of mining and petroleum royalties to be invested in regional areas. However, they have put Family First and the Christian Democratic Party ahead of the Liberals, which could yet turn up some interesting results. Surprisingly, the party is fielding candidates in all three metropolitan upper house regions. Their lower house card can be read here, though it’s hard to make sense of if you can’t put names to parties.

• The Greens are directing preferences to Labor in most places where it matters, but are offering open tickets in Morley (where ex-Labor incumbent John D’Orazio is running as an independent), Mount Lawley, Pilbara and Kimberley (despite its female indigenous incumbent). They will preference the Nationals ahead of the Liberals in Wagin and Central Wheatbelt, but are yet to declare their hand in Blackwood-Stirling and Moore.

• Monday’s West Australian released further results from last week’s Westpoll survey, providing unprompted responses to the question of “key issue in voting decision”. It indicates the meme of Alan Carpenter’s “arrogance” has caught on, with 10 per cent listed as nominating “Govt/Carpenter arrogance”. Other responses were 19 per cent for health, 12 per cent for law and order, 11 per cent for environment, 10 per cent for education and 10 per cent for “cost of living/economics”.

• The leaders’ debate will be held on Monday, the day after the Olympics closing ceremony, and screened as part of an hour-long edition of Channel Nine’s A Current Affair. Nine will reportedly have to air it unedited after the event as it lacks the facilities to screen it live.

• Antony Green concurs with Peter Brent’s assessment that Saturday’s Newspoll should have put Labor’s lead at 52-48 rather than 51-49, and provides much detail on minor party preference flows at the 2005 election.

• The surprise early election announcement has resulted in a dramatic drop in the number of candidates, from 375 lower house candidates in 2005 to 161.

• Click here for audio of my appearance on Jennifer Byrne’s program on News Radio on Tuesday. Readers in the fashionable end of town can enjoy more of my media tartery in the latest edition of Western Suburbs Weekly.

• Joe Poprzeczny’s State Scene columns for WA Business News generally deserve wider coverage, so here’s an extract from his assessment in last week’s issue. I personally am standing by my existing assumption that any minority government will be a Liberal one, unless John D’Orazio or John Bowler get up in Morley and Kalgoorlie:

To begin analysing the possibilities it’s important to keep the number 30 in mind, because that’s how many seats a side must win in the 59-member lower house to form government … However, even if one or two seats in the ‘quite solid’ category tumbled into the Barnett dilly-bag, there are others outside the 29-seat category that could go the other way, that is, fall out of the Barnett dilly-bag into the Carpenter-McGinty sack. Consider the Barnett-led camp’s following problems. The first that needs highlighting within those remaining 30 seats is that four – Wagin, Central Wheatbelt, Moore and Blackwood-Stirling – are set to be won by the Brendon Grylls-led Nationals, which leaves Mr Barnett only a possible 26 seats remaining. Moreover, Mr Grylls has made it clear that he and his three lower house colleagues aren’t interested in being ministers. In other words, forget dreaming about another conservative coalition …

Mr Barnett, even if he does well, by which State Scene means if he wins 26 seats, would at best only be able to form a minority government, one relying on the four Nationals who wouldn’t join him in coalition. And it’s here that an entirely new factor – one that’s so far been overlooked – walks onto WA’s political stage. Let’s say Mr Carpenter wins all his impregnable-to-quite-solid Labor seats, giving him 29 seats, one short of being able to form government. And let’s say Mr Barnett wins the remaining 26 minus the four National seats, which is far from certain. What would that mean? Firstly, it puts the Nationals in a potent position to start talking turkey, as they say in the bush, on which side to support and under what conditions. Secondly, when it comes to offering the power to form a government surely WA Governor Ken Michael would feel under some obligation to offer the majority party – in this case Labor – the first offer of the Treasury benches since they’d have 29 MPs, to 26 non-Laborites plus the four Nationals …

Among those 26 seats are several that Mr Barnett is likely to have great difficulty winning, if indeed he even stands Liberal candidates. State Scene puts no fewer than six into this group. They include the three held by Independent Liberals – Janet Woollard, Liz Constable and Sue Walker. True, efforts are being made to coax them across, and he may succeed in one or two cases. But only a brave person would predict all three women can be counted on to offer him full and unconditional backing. This qualification may not trim the 26-seat number down to 23 seats, but it certainly means the 26 figure is far from rock solid. Moreover, many Liberals have been viewing the two provincial seats of Geraldton and Albany as set to fall into their dilly-bag. That, however, remains a brave prediction with their current Labor incumbents – Shane Hill and Peter Watson, respectively – far from easy marks. And there’s another problem; the seat of Kalgoorlie, which Mr Birney isn’t contesting. Although many see Kalgoorlie as being Liberal on the basis of the past two elections, that’s a brave claim since those figures reflect Mr Birney’s two performances. With Mr Birney now out of the race, and with sacked Labor minister, John Bowler, contesting Kalgoorlie as Independent Labor, it’s quite likely to go to him or Labor candidate, Mathew Cuomo, rather than to a Liberal. If Mr Bowler wins Kalgoorlie he’d be able to negotiate himself into becoming lower house speaker if Labor found itself with only 29 seats. And the Liberals are far from assured of winning Collie-Preston that’s being contested by their frontbencher, Steve Thomas, who faces a tough fight.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

342 comments on “WA election minus 16 days”

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  1. From Crikey.

    4 . Labor ‘cr-pping itself” over WA polling
    Poll Bludger William Bowe writes:

    Expectations that Alan Carpenter’s government will be comfortably returned in Western Australia are dying hard, writes Poll Bludger.
    The rest of this article is for Crikey subscribers only. Subscribe now for instant access.

  2. Interesting to note that the biggest news story today isn’t the poll leaking, nor the Liberals Health Announcement, but the closing of the Member’s Bar 🙂

  3. William, you quote Joe Poprzeczny as saying:

    Secondly, when it comes to offering the power to form a government surely WA Governor Ken Michael would feel under some obligation to offer the majority party – in this case Labor – the first offer of the Treasury benches since they’d have 29 MPs, to 26 non-Laborites plus the four Nationals

    ‘When it comes to’? But that’s not what it comes to! No such initiative rests with the Governor. He doesn’t have to decide who he wants to offer the power to form a government after an election. After the election the incumbent Premier (Carpenter) will still be Premier. An election does not terminate his commission. The initiative will rest with him. If Labor wins a majority in the Legislative Assembly, he can simply continue as Premier without any action by the Governor being required. If the Liberals win a majority in the Legislative Assembly, Carpenter will resign and (if it’s necessary or appropriate) formally advise the Governor to invite Barnett to form a government. If neither of those things happen, the initiative will still rest with Carpenter. He may decide that he has no chance, resign, and probably advise the Governor to send for Barnett–but at that point the initiative does pass from him to the Governor, who can act as he sees fit, with or without the outgoing Premier’s advice. Or the Premier may decide not to resign at once and to have Parliament meet in order to test his support, possibly (if he sees fit) after negotiating with cross-benchers.

    The point is that no election result, by itself, requires the Governor to take the initiative on the basis of a judgement about who should have the chance to form a government. The Governor will only be required to act on the basis of the response by the politicians to the election result, which in most situations will settle the matter and in nearly all will give him very strong guidance.

  7. 104 Frank – This bloke makes a lot of sense.

    Yep, Dr Phillips, along with David Black are two of WA’s most respected political analysts, and are usually on the money, unly Peter Van Osolen, who’s pretty shallow by comparison.

  11. Is Brendan popular over there? He’ll be standing right beside Colin.

    Good question, knowing how the West are spinning the anti-Rudd stuff it could be a plus, or a minus – hard to tell.

  13. Foreign Minister, and former WA State ALP Secretary Stephen Smith on the Election.

    Mr Smith, who is also the Federal Member for Perth, says Colin Barnett and Troy Buswell could easily slide into office.

    “That’s the danger that is before the West Australian community, that’s the political danger in front of the Labor party and the job that has to occur over the next two weeks is to get the West Australian community to focus on the choice and the contrast.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/22/2344043.htm

  15. Stephen Smith on Perth Now.

    “With two weeks to go what’s now required is for people to focus on the choice,” Mr Smith said.

    “They can’t look at Alan Carpenter in isolation. They now have to focus on the choice. The great danger for WA is that Colin Barnett and Troy Buswell slide into office without appropriate scrutiny.

    “Two many people think that Labor will be returned to office. The time has now come for Colin Barnett, Troy Buswell and the Liberal Party to be put under the scrutiny that is required for people to make a choice about what is best for the state’s future and, indeed, given the importance of WA to the nation’s economy, what’s best for Australia’s future.”

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24223963-948,00.html

  17. Will people in other states (e.g. Victoria) be able to watch the Barnett v Carpenter debate? Maybe on Sky (cable) or something – anyone know?

  18. Will people in other states (e.g. Victoria) be able to watch the Barnett v Carpenter debate? Maybe on Sky (cable) or something – anyone know?

    I believe one of the conditions was that the debate be available for streaming on the various news sites such as thewest.com.au and Perth Now.

  21. Mark Olson on Ch10 on the Liberal Health Plan.

    “I’m glad someone has finally thought of the car parking situation” (paraphrasing.

    Nothing about the extra nurses or doctors or waiting lists, but a bloody car park

    The man’s a joke.

  22. I gave the LC calcs a quick go, Antony, and its remarkably difficult to get the two current Green MLCs elected – and on past figures Family First got up in SW. That said, I probably didn’t change the figures enough from the default 2005 ones, so I’m really working off ancient assumptions.

    Also – I think there might be a double-up of Franklin’s figures in the Tas state redistribution calculations, I don’t remember Lyons being quite that enthusiastic about either the ALP or the Gs. (that said – thank you so much for that – the state figures were bloody interesting)

  23. Antony 119: That post should be spoken with a Paul Hogan accent. 😛

    Also, why are the Nationals running in East Metro? As a former country boy I’ll be happy to preference then fairly high up, but this area is hardly the country. A bit odd…

  24. Also, why are the Nationals running in East Metro? As a former country boy I’ll be happy to preference then fairly high up, but this area is hardly the country. A bit odd…

    I assuming it’s because of the semi-rural areas of Swan Hills which includes Grape Growers in the Swan Valley, Hobby Farmers in Gidgegannup etc.

  26. Barnett reckons calling an election early was “Unfair”

    THE Labor government’s snap election was cynical, arrogant and opportunistic, Liberals leader Colin Barnett said today.
    Addressing a luncheon organised by a resurrected Perth Press Club today, Mr Barnett likened Premier Alan Carpenter’s calling of the September 6 election to an Olympic race in which a swimmer was given a head start over other competitors.

    The day before the election was called on August 7, Mr Barnett was installed as the Liberal Party’s fourth opposition leader since he lead the party to defeat at the 2005 poll.

    He said Australians had “a fine sense of fair play and an egalitarian spirit”.

    While some had seen the calling of the election as an astute political tactic, it had shown no sense of fairness, he said.

    “This is day 16 of the election and my 17th day as Liberal leader,” Mr Barnett said.

    ” . . . the calling of the early election . . . was a cynical, arrogant and opportunistic measure.

    “Some people have said to me, including some political colleagues, that it was a clever political tactic.

    “Well, would it be clever to jump into the Olympic swimming pool five seconds before the other competitors?

    “Would that be fair play?

    “Would that be the standard that we want from our athletes who are competing in Beijing?

    “I don’t think so.”

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24224807-5017005,00.html

  27. Josh@122. That’s because the two provinces the Green currently represent had 7 members, and now they only have 6. Under the old system, if Labor and the Liberals each had 43% and the Greens 7%, the two majors had 3.4 quotas and the Greens 0.58, and the majors’ surplus would elect a Green

    With 6 members, the two majors have 3 quotas and would promptly fill all 6 seats. Green prospects are better in East and South Metro where the quota has fallen than in North metro and South-west. I don’t know why the Greens agreed to this change.

  28. William,

    Interview with Alan Carpenter after the ad break – can you record and Youtube it for our Eastern Bludgers ?

  29. 126 Frank – Is he setting out his excuse for losing already? He needs to get over the “poor me” act pretty quickly and get on with it.

  30. Josh @ 122, The Franklin figures are right, but I’d actually got the wrong numbers for Lyons. Labor’s vote should have been higher, the Greens lower.

  32. It seems the WA Police Union don’t like the Liberals mandatory sentencing for assaulting Police to apply to youths, despite helping the Liberal Party to draft the laws.

    In a blow to the Liberals’ promise to introduce minimum mandatory sentences for anyone guilty of a serious assault on a public officer, Mr Dean said the proposed laws should not apply to juveniles.

    When the Liberals announced details of their proposed laws last week it emerged they would apply to juveniles as well as adults.

    Mr Dean, whose union helped draft the Liberals’ proposed laws, said they should only apply to adults.

    He said most assaults on police were committed by adults.

    Shadow attorney-general Christian Porter and shadow police minister Rob Johnson last week claimed that many assaults on officers were being committed by people aged under 18.

    Mr Dean said a review was being undertaken to work out trends, including the ages of those assaulting police.

    “At the end of the day nobody wants to put a 13-year-old inside, there has to be some flexibility given to their age,” Mr Dean said. “The majority of serious cases, and this is my understanding, come from adult offenders … the real serious damage seems to be done by the older ones.”

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=93266

  33. “Well, would it be clever to jump into the Olympic swimming pool five seconds before the other competitors?”

    The libs, like any other party should be on election footing within a year of an election, they only have themselves to blame for being unprepared.

    If Barnett wants a parable, it is more like the tortoise and the hare, with the libs as the hare installing Buswell who raced off ahead when installed, stopped to sniff a bottom, raced off again, stopped to undo some underwear, took off again, stopped to do something, god knows what, with a quokka, then keeled over when the tortoise made his move and had to be replaced.

  35. The big benefit I see from fuel is it may stop those 20c + hikes we see in a day, we had one yesterday.

    The majors may try it on, but if an independent only hikes 5c they will pick up a heap of business as they are stuck with those prices for the day.

  36. Frank no wonder Barnett was so sad in your 126. He’s decided to outunderdog the underdogs.

    [However Mr Barnett today insisted that it was the Liberals who were underdogs in the election campaign, telling the Perth Press Club he was disregarding opinion polls showing his party could win.

    “We are a long, long way behind,” Mr Barnett told an audience full of supporters.

    “We have a lot of seats to win if we are to form government.

    “There needs to be sense of realism to that, rather than a
    reaction to opinion polls or comment that might happen.

    “To win seats, marginal seats, it is very hard to unseat the sitting member, who would have built up their credibility and association with the electorate.”]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24223963-948,00.html

  37. Frank no wonder Barnett was so sad in your 126. He’s decided to outunderdog the underdogs.

    Yep, and you note the last sentence re only answering 2 questions from the floor. I wonder if the Journalists were from The West and were Dorothy Dixers ?

  38. Just got a call from “Nationwide Polling” polling Swan Hills, but would’nt divulge who they were polling for – so I refused 🙂

  39. Just got a call from “Nationwide Polling” polling Swan Hills, but would’nt divulge who they were polling for – so I refused 🙂

    Oh and they cited the Privacy Act for not divulging who they were polling for.

  41. Ex ABC TV News,

    Barnett refuses to rule out banning MP’s from dealing with Lobbyists like Burke, Grills and Chricchton-Browne.

    Talk about hypocrisy.

  42. Frank,

    There are specific privacy principles which apply to market & social research. If divulging the name of the client may influence responses (and it often does with political research), researchers are within their rights not to tell you the client. However, they are obliged to tell you who the client is after the interview is completed (if you ask). So not sure why you refused – could have been interesting.

  43. So not sure why you refused – could have been interesting.

    Don’t like doing surveys without knowing who the client is -which is my right. If companies aren’t upfront about who thy’re doing the research for, then it isn’t a credible survey – when writteb surveys are sent you are always told who the client is and what purpose it’s for, why can’t it apply to phone surveys, for all I know it could be someone gathering information to break into my home.

  44. Frank,

    Nationwide Market Research operates out of East Victoria Park. They are listed on the AMSRS site. They are are a registered market research fieldwork company. If you’d done the interview maybe you could have told us something of interest.

  45. Nationwide Market Research operates out of East Victoria Park. They are listed on the AMSRS site. They are are a registered market research fieldwork company. If you’d done the interview maybe you could have told us something of interest.

    That’s beside the point, I prefer people were upfront about which organisation they are doing research for.

    I said I would only participate if I was told who the client was, the caller refused, so the call was ended.

    It’s their loss, not mine.

  46. I’d encourage people to do phone surveys. It’s often very illuminating in terms of the subject and how they ask the questions. And you can usually work out who the client is. And Frank, market research companies don’t usually break into people’s homes.

  47. And Frank, market research companies don’t usually break into people’s homes.

    That’s beside the point, ANY crook can make up a name similar to Nationwide’s and dupe the caller into divulging information.

    As I said, if they told me who the client was, I’d be happy to take part, they didn’t – so I refused.

    As is MY right as a person.

  49. Respect your right not to do the phone survey Frank.
    We choose to read your thoughts, they’d actually get paid to do it.
    Not sure who’s better off. We’re allowed to switch off. They’d have to listen.

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