WA election minus 16 days

• Call it expectations management if you will, but Labor is sending out strong signals that it is in big trouble despite what the betting markets think (Centrebet continues to offer $1.18 for Labor and $4.25 for Liberal). Yesterday Alan Carpenter spoke of his party being in a “knife-edge political situation”. Geof Parry of Seven News has today been told internal polling shows Labor headed for defeat on the back of a 7 per cent swing, although two-thirds expect them to win. The ABC was told the party had given up on its most marginal seat of Kingsley (although local resident Bogart writes in comments that he has “received calls and stuff in letter box last night”), and is “concerned” about Riverton and Swan Hills (with respective post-redistribution margins of 2.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent, and a prematurely outgoing sitting member in the latter case), as well as the new seats of Ocean Reef (notional margin of 1.6 per cent) and Jandakot (3.6 per cent). The latter comes as a surprise, as Labor was earlier trumpeting polling showing it ahead 56-44, and should presumably have cause for optimism due to the Fiona Stanley Hospital and Perth to Mandurah rail line.

• Upper house voting tickets were lodged on Monday, and can most easily be perused at ABC Elections. A lot more on this shortly. The Nationals have predictably backed off from their threats to preference Labor ahead of the Liberals depending on the reception to its push for 25 per cent of mining and petroleum royalties to be invested in regional areas. However, they have put Family First and the Christian Democratic Party ahead of the Liberals, which could yet turn up some interesting results. Surprisingly, the party is fielding candidates in all three metropolitan upper house regions. Their lower house card can be read here, though it’s hard to make sense of if you can’t put names to parties.

• The Greens are directing preferences to Labor in most places where it matters, but are offering open tickets in Morley (where ex-Labor incumbent John D’Orazio is running as an independent), Mount Lawley, Pilbara and Kimberley (despite its female indigenous incumbent). They will preference the Nationals ahead of the Liberals in Wagin and Central Wheatbelt, but are yet to declare their hand in Blackwood-Stirling and Moore.

• Monday’s West Australian released further results from last week’s Westpoll survey, providing unprompted responses to the question of “key issue in voting decision”. It indicates the meme of Alan Carpenter’s “arrogance” has caught on, with 10 per cent listed as nominating “Govt/Carpenter arrogance”. Other responses were 19 per cent for health, 12 per cent for law and order, 11 per cent for environment, 10 per cent for education and 10 per cent for “cost of living/economics”.

• The leaders’ debate will be held on Monday, the day after the Olympics closing ceremony, and screened as part of an hour-long edition of Channel Nine’s A Current Affair. Nine will reportedly have to air it unedited after the event as it lacks the facilities to screen it live.

• Antony Green concurs with Peter Brent’s assessment that Saturday’s Newspoll should have put Labor’s lead at 52-48 rather than 51-49, and provides much detail on minor party preference flows at the 2005 election.

• The surprise early election announcement has resulted in a dramatic drop in the number of candidates, from 375 lower house candidates in 2005 to 161.

• Click here for audio of my appearance on Jennifer Byrne’s program on News Radio on Tuesday. Readers in the fashionable end of town can enjoy more of my media tartery in the latest edition of Western Suburbs Weekly.

• Joe Poprzeczny’s State Scene columns for WA Business News generally deserve wider coverage, so here’s an extract from his assessment in last week’s issue. I personally am standing by my existing assumption that any minority government will be a Liberal one, unless John D’Orazio or John Bowler get up in Morley and Kalgoorlie:

To begin analysing the possibilities it’s important to keep the number 30 in mind, because that’s how many seats a side must win in the 59-member lower house to form government … However, even if one or two seats in the ‘quite solid’ category tumbled into the Barnett dilly-bag, there are others outside the 29-seat category that could go the other way, that is, fall out of the Barnett dilly-bag into the Carpenter-McGinty sack. Consider the Barnett-led camp’s following problems. The first that needs highlighting within those remaining 30 seats is that four – Wagin, Central Wheatbelt, Moore and Blackwood-Stirling – are set to be won by the Brendon Grylls-led Nationals, which leaves Mr Barnett only a possible 26 seats remaining. Moreover, Mr Grylls has made it clear that he and his three lower house colleagues aren’t interested in being ministers. In other words, forget dreaming about another conservative coalition …

Mr Barnett, even if he does well, by which State Scene means if he wins 26 seats, would at best only be able to form a minority government, one relying on the four Nationals who wouldn’t join him in coalition. And it’s here that an entirely new factor – one that’s so far been overlooked – walks onto WA’s political stage. Let’s say Mr Carpenter wins all his impregnable-to-quite-solid Labor seats, giving him 29 seats, one short of being able to form government. And let’s say Mr Barnett wins the remaining 26 minus the four National seats, which is far from certain. What would that mean? Firstly, it puts the Nationals in a potent position to start talking turkey, as they say in the bush, on which side to support and under what conditions. Secondly, when it comes to offering the power to form a government surely WA Governor Ken Michael would feel under some obligation to offer the majority party – in this case Labor – the first offer of the Treasury benches since they’d have 29 MPs, to 26 non-Laborites plus the four Nationals …

Among those 26 seats are several that Mr Barnett is likely to have great difficulty winning, if indeed he even stands Liberal candidates. State Scene puts no fewer than six into this group. They include the three held by Independent Liberals – Janet Woollard, Liz Constable and Sue Walker. True, efforts are being made to coax them across, and he may succeed in one or two cases. But only a brave person would predict all three women can be counted on to offer him full and unconditional backing. This qualification may not trim the 26-seat number down to 23 seats, but it certainly means the 26 figure is far from rock solid. Moreover, many Liberals have been viewing the two provincial seats of Geraldton and Albany as set to fall into their dilly-bag. That, however, remains a brave prediction with their current Labor incumbents – Shane Hill and Peter Watson, respectively – far from easy marks. And there’s another problem; the seat of Kalgoorlie, which Mr Birney isn’t contesting. Although many see Kalgoorlie as being Liberal on the basis of the past two elections, that’s a brave claim since those figures reflect Mr Birney’s two performances. With Mr Birney now out of the race, and with sacked Labor minister, John Bowler, contesting Kalgoorlie as Independent Labor, it’s quite likely to go to him or Labor candidate, Mathew Cuomo, rather than to a Liberal. If Mr Bowler wins Kalgoorlie he’d be able to negotiate himself into becoming lower house speaker if Labor found itself with only 29 seats. And the Liberals are far from assured of winning Collie-Preston that’s being contested by their frontbencher, Steve Thomas, who faces a tough fight.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

342 comments on “WA election minus 16 days”

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  2. But what does the ‘natural order of things’ mean?

    Unlike in other states, this Labor government’s majority has never been particularly large. Barnett may not get a ‘tidal wave’, but he doesn’t need one.

    The natural order of things may mean a Liberal government. And I believe that’s exactly what William has previously argued.

  3. Only the following on the Labor polling in The West, from Robert Taylor’s “Campaign Sketch” on page 7

    I wonder if he didn’t include the 7% stuff because the info was leaked to the ABC, Perth Now and Seven, Nine & Ten didn’t run with it all.

  4. I’m surprised they haven’t exploited the “Buswell as treasurer” line more. I mean, Barnett is giving him a strong endorsement (and impliedly endorsing his appalling behaviour) in handing him that portfolio.
    Is there any chance Buswell could lose his own seat?

  5. I’m surprised they haven’t exploited the “Buswell as treasurer” line more. I mean, Barnett is giving him a strong endorsement (and impliedly endorsing his appalling behaviour) in handing him that portfolio.

    Yes, you would think they’d do that, though maybe they’re going to run those ads in the last 2 weeks to maximise the impact

    Is there any chance Buswell could lose his own seat?

    Unfortunately, former Liberal Bernie Masters, who almost won the seat at the last election has decided not to run and the seat is fairly safe.

  6. 54 Sean

    I think it’s London to a brick that the ALP will target Buswell in the last few days of the campaign. Given his low standing in the electorate, it’s amazing that he’s been given such an important portfolio.

  10. I’m surprised they haven’t exploited the “Buswell as treasurer” line more.

    Another, not so publicised aspect to this is his time as President of the Busselton Shire Council where he presided amid allegations that he’d sent the council bankrupt.

  11. Sean 59

    I suspect a swing of that magnitude would only be attainable if there was a state wide swing to the ALP. But I will be surprised if there’s not a sizeable backlash against him.

  13. #60

    Yes Frank. It lends itself to a similar attack to the one that the Libs mounted against Latham during the 2004 Federal election.

  18. “State secretary Mark Olson says the Government must also address major parking shortages at the major hospitals if it is to attract or retain nurses in the profession.”

    So labor say they will employ an extra 800 nurses and 60 doctor interns and Olson says this won’t work as they will have nowhere to park? Is this right Frank?

    “Mr Grylls has made it clear that he and his three lower house colleagues aren’t interested in being ministers.”

    That is weird, all power and no responsibilty?, the whole point of representation is to put forward and implement policies for your constituents.

  19. Very smart of Hawker Britton, they are creating doubt in the electorate on who will win government, so people will now focus on the Liberals and their policy.

    And not the stuff ups of the ALP, ie explosion, Burke, royal commission etc

    Labor will romp it in, they will have at least 12 seat majority.

    7%? yeah right that put Labor at 46 2PP, looks like Capenter need to be taught how to tell fibs, maybe he is talking about a safe liberal seat compared with the last election

  20. The Liberals are now in the position of a dog catching a car. Do they go ahead of the car and run the risk of being run over. Run along beside it with the risk of someone leaning out the window and cracking a stockwhip in their face or back off and begin the chase all over again?

  22. I think Insider, above, is here to help the ALP cause by perpetuating the myth. The next lot of opinion polls will tell the story.

  23. In a close 2PP contest you would put money on Labor as was case back in the 1980s: Federal 1990, Vic 1988, SA 1989, WA 1990 all Labor wins from a 2PP minority. Carpenter remains Premier until he resigns or is defeated on the floor of the House. If the Nats want a minority Lib govt supported by them they will have to pledge to vote Labor out in the House and then Carpenter would resign

  24. 71 “All the noise, dust, gravel and diesel fumes should help the canine concentration.”

    Boerwar, the problem is that once the Liberals hit the front they will be expected to lead or at least show some leadership skills.

    A party with four changes of leader, all their policies under review and split from their running mates the Nats will find it difficult to concentrate for two more weeks. I’m sure that had the campaign been the same length as the NT campaign they were in with a possibility of an undeserved win.

    If they had four years of stability, all their policy work finalised etc., it could have been a different matter. It is too late to do all that in a campaign. The focus will shift to Liberal Party policy once the Olympics are over and then the Liberals will find the going very tough. Labor will just be hoping the Libs can keep ahead in the race and the polls for the next week or so.

  27. Is it time to play which Ministers wont show-up to play opposition?

    From Insider at 50: The strategy group is crapping itself. And they only have themselves to blame. How they have let this arrogant line to become an issue is beyond me.

    Oh pulease – anyone who hadn’t noticed the massive arrogance before the election has had two weeks of the Carps adds kicking Colin. A work colleague who had to ask who the premier was said that add convinced him to vote for whomever that other guy is.

    It hasn’t been a bad Government but it is hard to be a really really bad Government when it rains money for the whole time of your term and all you have to do is spend and cut taxes. Perhaps if Carps hadn’t embraced the Burke people and then shoot them off one by one it would be a bit better.

  28. I think we should see the poll leaking for what it was and is – an act of desperation. You do not say we are going to get stuffed in an election as it sends out the wrong signals. Therefore if they are doing it it is because they really are stuffed. Labor is failing to get a coherent message out – other than we have lots of money. Ironically by truncating the election and using the Olympics as cover they have stopped themselves from being able to focus on the Libs and show up their lack of policy. Currently all people are thinking is truth in sentencing, RPH and they hate Jim McGinty. I do think Carps looks a bit arrogant but I think they have annoyed people by going early and they don’t have convincing narrative. Labor needs to change tack and focus on the Libs as a whiole, the last four years etc. Otherwise it is cactus.

    Also how come the CSA are running anti labor ads do they have a death wish ?

  29. Wow, Centrebet still offering great odds for the Libs @ $4.25 – much better than Sportsbet. Makes you wonder about the disparity.

    Might be a good time to put a bit of money on them.

  31. “Wow, Centrebet still offering great odds for the Libs @ $4.25 – much better than Sportsbet.”
    I’ve tried to find the Sportsbet odds and can’t find them. What are they A-C?

  33. For those thinking Labor is in as much trouble as they say they are in, why would you release such figures if it really was the case? Why would you want to exacerbate the problem? As I said earlier, now you want to believe Labor polling. If it were the other way you’d be saying, “Come on, pull the other one.” Not necessarily because it was showing Labor in front but because it was Labor polling.

  34. “A work colleague who had to ask who the premier was said that add convinced him to vote for whomever that other guy is.”
    If you went by the number of stories I read like this before the last Qld election you’d expected Beattie to have been wiped out.

  35. I think that you believe it as if you were saying look this is serious and putting out crooked figures you’d show how close it was not an electoral wipe out. There can be no logic to that position. You only do it if its true because people think you will win and the polling also says people don’t rate the Libs so you try to change the dynamic. Like putting a cats nose in its own poo. I don’t say it is all over but that Labor are in deep do do – if their polling has gone done the plug in a week it can come back but look at Barnet he also looks like a guy about to win.

  36. Effectively the Libs are asking for voters to support a minority Liberal govt propped up by the Nats who will claim a right of veto over any govt policy they dislike. If the media actually focused on this it would be good for Labor

  37. Ok – thought I’d re-enter the fray after a long-ish hiatus (induced primarily by the unpleasant tone of many comments on the previous thread).
    1. Polls are polls – as they say, there’s only one poll that matters. I am slightly surprised at the size of the swing but not at all surprised that there is one. IMHO many people were unhappy with the government (and while I won’t agree that they are a particularly good one I will agree that they certainly aren’t particularly bad) and had generally been left with a slightly unpleasant taste in the mouth – even if they couldn’t precisely identify what it was.
    2. I have been both impressed and disappointed in Brendan Grylls. On the one hand I think he has done an impressive job of leading his party and marking the clear differentiation between them and ‘the other guys’. They have positioned themselves as unabashedly the bushies, not just Libs with Akubras. Good for them – it creates for them a clear and natural constituency and allows them to focus their efforts. Of course, it also to a large extent condemns them to always be on the fringes UNLESS they can parley their position into real power. When he says he isn’t interested in doing deals with the Libs for coalition/cabinet (but he is prepared to be ‘bribed’ by a ridiculous deal to disproportionately spend money in the regions) I don’t take him to be saying he won’t do deals EVER but to simply be reinforcing the Nats independent stance.
    4. I also think that the attack ads by the ALP will turn perhaps as many people off and it will work on. It seems a pretty desperate tactic for a government who is supposed to be touting all their wonderful achievements.
    4. Last point – I think that although most people won’t voice it they recognise the cynicism in going to the polls this early and although they may not consciously punish the government for it, it adds to the nasty after-taste mentioned above.

  38. Heaven help us if we vote someone like “Sniffer” in to be our State Treasurer?!?!?!…….He cant even run a back-water council like Busselton without sending it broke. I dont think a campaign about that scary fact is negative at all….its the nightmarish reality under a Liberal Government!

  40. As a fairly ignorant observer of Western Australian politics, the thing that strikes me most about the commentary is how very uncertain most people are about what is going on. It seems to me tha tpeople are trying out various narratives *sic* to see if they will fit but there appears to be little confidence about it.

    Is it because things are close? Is it because lots of folk are undecided? Is it because the choices are an unattractive Tweedledum and Tweedledee? is there some loosening in the entrails of the polity that has yet to congeal?

    Anyway, to an outsider, it is interesting watching the tentative nature of much of the commentary. Apart from anything else, it does not gel at all with the disparity in the betting odds.

  41. Perhaps if Carps hadn’t embraced the Burke people and then shoot them off one by one it would be a bit better.

    But on the other hand will Barnett put a ban on his ministers dealing with Noel Chrichton-Browne, in particular Troy Buswell.

    If he doesn’t, then exposes the Libs as hypocrites over their attacks on Burke.

  42. Frank – no question NCB is poison and it would be smart to put a ban in place IF it ever becomes an issue – if not, why bother.
    As for Orange – the only people who will have to worry about voting (or not) for ‘Sniffer’ are the lucky people of Vasse who live in one of the most beautiful regions of the country. And they don’t get a say on what cabinet post he may (or may not) be appointed to.
    Boer – you’re right. You would think that an ALP win would/should be a foregone conclusion but it is clear that most people are not as certain as the bookies.

  43. “State secretary Mark Olson says the Government must also address major parking shortages at the major hospitals if it is to attract or retain nurses in the profession.”

    So labor say they will employ an extra 800 nurses and 60 doctor interns and Olson says this won’t work as they will have nowhere to park? Is this right Frank?

    Basically that is his argument, and he even opposes the use of shuttle busses to ferry stuff from the areas which are available.

    May I suggest that Nurses who work the same shift and live near each other consider carpooling ?

  44. Effectively the Libs are asking for voters to support a minority Liberal govt propped up by the Nats who will claim a right of veto over any govt policy they dislike. If the media actually focused on this it would be good for Labor

    But “the media” here in WA, are doing the hardest to elect a Liberal Govt, in particular the West Australian and radio 6PR, through Burke associate Bob Maumill have conducted a concerted campaign against Labor on every front imaginable.

  45. Meanwhile the Libs release their Helath Policy.

    I like this bit.

    Dr Hames said shorter waiting times for surgery will be possible by keeping operating theatres open outside normal working hours, including weekends, and not cancelling operations when regular shifts ended.

    I wonder if the Doctors would be willing to give up their weekends to do more operations ?

    Also, The Libs will build a multi-storey carpark at Sir Charles Gardiner Hospital as well to appease Olson 🙂

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=93417

  47. VPL…”the only people who will have to worry about voting (or not) for ‘Sniffer’ are the lucky people of Vasse who live in one of the most beautiful regions of the country. And they don’t get a say on what cabinet post he may (or may not) be appointed to.”

    Lets hope the people of Vasse spare us all the potential of that nightmare becoming a reality!

    Whether he is given the Treasurer portfolio or some other portfolio, its almost a cert that he’ll get something (deal done to step down etc, etc)…….that in itself is outrageous! The scary thing is that Lib’s could just get up.

  50. From the Perth Now story on Libs Health Announcement.

    Dr Hames said before the first budget of a Liberal Government, it would consult with the Australian Nursing Federation and nurses about a package of retention and job satisfaction incentives, including car parking, more flexible working hours, child care, help with HECS debts and professional development support.

    Which proves that Olson is a Liberal Patsy.

    I wonder if the Libs will reintroduce Workplace Agreements ?

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24223692-5017005,00.html

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