Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland

The Brisbane Sunday Mail today carries a Galaxy poll of 800 respondents, which disappointingly for the conservatives shows no improvement following last weekend’s merger. Indeed, Labor has slightly increased its two-party lead to 53-47 from 52-48 in the outfit’s last such survey in June. Labor’s primary vote is up one point to 44 per cent while the LNP is on 40 per cent, down two points from the combined Nationals and Liberal vote last time.

The unreliability and/or Coalition bias of Galaxy is apparently taken for granted by most commenters on this site, so perhaps an overview of its track record is in order. The following list shows its primary vote findings in the final poll before each election it has covered, followed by the actual result in brackets (with Labor shown first each time).

Federal 2007: 42.5-42.5 (43-42)
NSW 2007: 40-38 (39-37)
Victoria 2006: 42-39 (43-40)
Queensland 2006: 48-38 (47-38)
Federal 2004: 39-46 (38-47)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

179 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland”

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  1. Open slather tree clearing. Here’s a good idea for a party claiming to be interested in being in government and needing city voters to help it get there.

    QUEENSLAND’S new Liberal National Party is considering lifting Labor’s ban on tree-clearing in a move that will anger moderate Liberals and complicate plans for the Rudd Government’s carbon trading scheme.

    Plans to review the ban emerged as LNP leader Lawrence Springborg blamed Liberal infighting for a poll that showed the party had failed to win over voters in the two weeks since the state coalition partners merged.

    “LNP strategists said that with former Nationals having a two-to-one membership majority over former Liberals in the LNP, the ban on broad-scale tree-clearing would be eased. The ban came into force in 2006 and is deeply unpopular with farmers.

    LNP president Bruce McIver confirmed it would be reviewed. “This is one of those policies we will be working our way through,” he said.

    Mr McIver would not be drawn on whether the ban would be scrapped. “We need to have those discussions.”

    LNP Maranoa Federal Electorate Council chairman Lindsay Reardon said most former Nationals wanted restrictions on tree-clearing eased.”,25197,24123153-5006786,00.html

  2. “the ban on broad-scale tree-clearing would be eased”

    Didn’t take the Borg long, looks like they will run on adds featuring ute man with a chainsaw.

  3. Someone had a reply to my assertion that Borg is a Redneck,

    It’s the Dolly Downer Syndrome. What I hear you ask?

    The conservatives spend about half their time calling other people names, someone calls a National party member a redneck, and lo and behold they get all antsy.

    Its really a basic issue of logic. The National party is the most rediculous party you can imagine. How they have ever managed to con the Libs, let alone the 5% of the voters who vote for them is beyond me. Their attitudes to water is a classic example. They have no place for rational long term views or policies, they are about extractiona and exploitation. Their policies around many social justice issues are really right wing and reactionary. They have another trait that really annoys, they make calls on issues like private schools with lines like “there are struggling kids at these schools, some of them have health care cards. We should show a bit more care and compassion.” Then they all retire to the local Mens club and piss themselves laughing.

    Another reason why Borg could be called a redneck. Jo B-P was the premier for 17 years, he was a member of the National Party. Russ Hinds was of course a Roads Scholar and a member of the Fabian Intellectuals offshoot, the …..

    Red Neck? Absolutely.

  4. Follow the Preferences you are a Turkey Mate. They only poll 5% hey? funny they hold 19 seats in the Qld House of Reps you tosser and 10 in the Federal House. Watch the Borg become the next Premier. Hope you cry yourself to sleep. Captain Bligh’s ship is sinking.

  5. Yeah good luck with that Moose. The LNP is running headlong for the right wing and we all know that’s the way to win an election in Australia…


  6. You lefties sound a little scared? The Borg got you rattled a bit??? 40% Primary vote is fairly highly for a rubble of a party isn’t it???? and 12 months to go. LOL.

  7. Moose, worked out the ninteen seats beside Mount Qmmaney yet or is all too hard to tell us what seats will be picked up at the next election? We’re still waiting Moose…(yawn).

  8. Oooh how edgy. Mark Bahnisch still going on about the Borg and female fish. All I am reading in that statement is “it is a highly emotion-charged debate.” AND it was a doorstop in 2006 campaign, might be time to move on.

  9. Steve, I have worked out how the Borg will take 19 seats. Just like Krudd took more than 19 in November and just like CAN DO and his LANDSLIDE LIBERAL VICTORY in March. You can’t stop the Borg. Resistance is Futile and yes YAWN I remember handing out how to vote cards for Matthew Bourke in the BCC election in March, the LIBERAL candidate for Jamboree now the LOCAL CAN DO MEMBER. The Labor booth workers laughed at us and told me that there was no way that Felicity Farmer would lose, she holds the seat by 8.6%. Well LOL and apparently she walked out of her “Celebration Dinner” crying and has never been seen of again. THAT IS HOW THE LNP IS GOING TO SNATCH MOUNT OMMANEY.

    ps* Darryl Rosin you are a tosser mate. The Nats got 17.3% at the last STATE ELECTION and the pathetic GREENS GOT 7.9%.

  10. #57

    Poor old Moose shouldn’t have been quite so forward in his gushing support for the LNP.

    Dunno about 19 seats, but there’s certainly a lot of low-hanging fruit for the LNP if (and it’s a BIG if) they get their act together. I could see most of the Gold Coast seats except Albert and Burleigh going; certainly Mudgeeraba, Broadwater, Coomera and Gaven would change hands as part of any half-decent performance by the LNP, as would Aspley and Indooroopilly in Brisbane. The redistribution has made Glass House and Whitsunday line ball, while I think the LNP should retain the notional ‘losses’ of Clayfield, Mirani and Burdekin.

    That’s eight actual plus (probably) three notional gains without doing much more than not being utterly incompetent. If the LNP were seriously challenging, there’s a lot of traditionally swinging seats with inflated margins (like Mansfield, Redlands and Moose’s favourite Mount Ommaney) that will be very tight.

    If the LNP offers a united front I could see the election being very competitive with many seats changing hands. It’s a ten year old government that’s had more than its fair share of problems. Although, I could also see the LNP disintegrating into warring factions and leading to another Labor landslide. Whatever happens it certainly won’t be boring.

  11. How do I know the LNP Will win?

    Believe me I am a member of the LNP and the energy is amazing, I am sure it was the same feeling the ALP had when Krudd was elected leader. We can feel that is it time for change. Whatever you freaks think I am assure you that there are no cracks in the LNP as the twits that did not want to be a part of it like Mal Brough have resigned. The LNP now boosts more members in Qld than the ALP. 1 Party, 1 campaign, 1 fund-raising, 1 message, no 3 cornered contests and no ALP taking advantage of the former dis-unity in the Qld Coalition. We have a strong likable leader and Deputy and believe me they are currently speaking with the excellent “Celebrity” Candidates just like Dudd did and also the have the backing of Queensland richest man who, for your information tipped in 10 Mill to kick off the new party and Palmer said he will pay whatever it takes to Roll Labor. Captain Bligh is history.

    Here is a recent news report.

    Billionaire to fund new conservative party

    Mining magnate Clive Palmer has publicly pledged financial support for a new conservative party proposed for Queensland.

    Mr Palmer, 53, has an estimated $1.1 billion fortune based on his iron ore interests in Western Australia.

    The Nationals also have use of his 100-seat private jet and helicopters, prompting the government last week to claim the billionaire had “bought” the party.

    Mr Palmer told Nine News he would provide the finances needed to make a new party a reality.

    “I will do what I can to make sure the party does win the next election,” he said.

    “This new party will provide real opposition in this state for the first time in 15 to 20 years.

    “It needs people’s backing, and it’s got the sort of backing it needs to get its message across.”

  12. The Nats got 5% nationally and 10 seats in the House. That’s footy, deal with it.

    The State election was slightly better for the Nats than you think. Their final primary result was 17.82% for 16 seats compared to the Liberals 20.10% for 10 seats (and the Greens 7.99% for zero)

    So the Nats in Qld are about twice as popular as the Greens. Quite an achievement for a party that once ruled Qld in their own right. “Only half as pathetic as the Greens”. You should put that on a t-shirt.


  13. You sound scared of The Borg Dazza. You should be. Picture Arnie trying to Kill Sarah Connor in the Terminator and now picture The Borg, coming for the lefties.

  14. 63 Moose – all well and good but it doesn’t prove a thing. The election is still a long way off. I agree with much of what 62 MDMConnell says. I doubt the LNP can do it in one election. They will eventually do it, no party remains in government forever but IMHO the election after next is their best shot as long as they make big gains this election.
    I don’t live in Queensland but if the polls are in anyway close to the mark at present then there doesn’t seem to be this great yearning for change, not a government changing swell anyway.

  15. Why so aggressive Moose? Anyone who has to behave in this manner really doesn’t believe in the case they are putting. It’s argument by stealth not argument by reason.

  16. I agree with Moose, when the great Jo Bejerky Peterson run the good ship Queensland we conservatives and our capitalist backers knew our bananas from our Pineapples. We know where to find them and where to leave the brown paper bags. Oh my word, you . Don’t you worry about that, you pinko Greeny lefties, When I was the Premier we had rules and laws aggainst your type, I know where your house is . Don’t you worry about that, We would have driven the Greenies back down south where they came from Theres no need for that type of , well you know its not natural, I mean a pumpkin pie is a pumpkin pie its not anything eles and its happy in being a pumpkin Pie.

    Here is a brain teaser. Would Jo Berjerky P be a climate change denier?

  17. “Would Jo Berjerky P be a climate change denier?”

    Didn’t he want to destroy parts of the Barrier Reef to create a shipping channel?? Maybe he’d be an enthusiastic CC supporter- “well, the reef is dying anyway, so what’s the problem in blowing it up??”

  18. “You sound scared of The Borg Dazza.”

    Oh please. There’s little I would like more than young Lol and his LNP to start acting like a competent opposition. I actually expect they probably will get their act together, but I have my doubts about whether a) they can present an appealing face to 21st century Queensland and b) whether ‘vote for us ’cause we’re not the ALP’ will be a winning campaign.

    I posted the above because in your enthusiasm, you seemed to be missing the fact that the Nats appeal only to a small, fringe group of voters. That’s not a criticism, it’s just the way it is, but thanks to the coalition they’re way more powerful than the numbers say they should be. Qld is different to the rest of the country, and it’s going to be interesting to see how they go.

    “Picture Arnie trying to Kill Sarah Connor in the Terminator and now picture The Borg, coming for the lefties.”

    Have you seen this move through to the end? You might want to reconsider your choice of analogy.



  19. I say “Angels fear to tread where Moose rushes in” You are brave Moose but your politics SUCK!! As you are our tocken neo-con in QLD state politics here at the “bludger” I look forward to your beligerence with a laugh. Are you related to ESJ???

  20. Moose 63 Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 12:01 pm

    “How do I know the LNP Will win?
    Believe me I am a member of the LNP and the energy is amazing, I am sure it was the SAME feeling the ALP had when Krudd was elected leader”

    “SAME feeling ” ? No , not at all , we ALP were leading in th Rodent in Polls , so we knew we were going to win Whereas yous ar sitting at 40% , big losing teritory I’d say so you’re relying on fluff & hopelessness

  21. Fluff and hopelessness – I like that ron. I think I’ll call them the FHP now.

    So do you think Cap’n Bligh go early before the FHP has time to consolidate or will she give them time to stew?

    Personally I think she’ll probably hold out till the very last minute possible.

    Experience tells us that the QLD conserative parties hate each other almost as much as they hate Labor. The possibility of the FHP catastrophically self destructing is fairly high I would think and Bligh would want to allow time for that to happen.

  22. Did someone mention low hanging fruit that could be picked up at the next election?

    (1.3)% Mirani (Liberal National Party held)
    (0.9)% Burdekin (Liberal National Party held)

    1.0% Bundaberg (Liberal National Party )
    2.0% Hinchinbrook (Liberal National Party )
    0.3% Clayfield (Liberal National Party )
    2.2% Currumbin (Liberal National Party )
    2.2% Caloundra (Liberal National Party )
    2.6% Kawana (Liberal National Party )
    2.7% Mermaid Beach (Liberal National Party )
    3.4% Lockyer (Liberal National Party )
    5.9% Beaudesert (Liberal National Party )
    7.4% Macrossan (Liberal National Party )
    7.4% Burnett (Liberal National Party )
    8.0% Mogill (Liberal National Party )

  23. I am predicting a huge swing to the LNP and an unprecedented victory for the Borg’s LNP and to make you freaks a bit more scared the inside scoop is that Campbell Newman will consider a switch to State Parliament before the 2011 State Election as his second term will be coming to end around the same time.


  24. 75 Moose – why aren’t you at school today? This is childish nonsense. Disagree by all means but the personal abuse and extreme claims without genuine debate just leave me cold.

  25. Through no fault of my own I was in Queensland for the last election, at a lovely outpost called Cairns. Now being a bit of a political junkie I actually went and handed out how to votes, just rocked up and helped the team. Its always interesting and I reckon you get a bit of a feel for the electorate.
    Hold on to your hat mister Borg, queensland and the good citizens of that great state are a long way changed from the good old days of Jo.
    The thing that people like moose don’t get is that the reason that the Qld cons are in opposition is precisely the fact that the white shoe brigade, used to brag about their links etc. The Can Do attitude is really some stupid development at all costs mantra.
    I know that its good to be positive etc, but really the level of self delusion with the fibs and Nuts at the moment is just rather bizarre.

  26. oops, Clayfield is (0.3) % (Liberal National Party held). It is nominally Labor following the proposed redistribution.

  27. Who is Campbell Newman, Oh sorry I remember. What you are saying here moose is that the present leader is a dud and somewhat more that the party has no chance at the next election, HA Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha

  28. Bob Santamaria, Campbell Newman is the Conservative Leader that smashed the Australian Labor Party at the March BCC Election? Remember? ALP seats fell one after the other? Remember man?

    No, what I am saying is that he will be the Borg’s successor after the Borg is Premier for a few terms and Newman learns the ropes in the State Parliament.


  29. You can’t blame Moose, when you support the conservative side of politics in Australia you have to scrape the barrel when it comes to recent electoral victory. Perhaps next we will have him crowing about the President of one of the university student unions who is a Young Liberal.

  30. Well LTEP you make a good point but politics works in cycles and since we lost Canberra you will now see the States fall like Domino’s my friend. In fact I predict if Colin Barnett takes the WA Liberal Leadership (As it would appear as Buswell is about to resign) we will take WA by the end of the year. Then QLD, NSW. Not a bad start. More to come.

  31. Well I wouldn’t be completely surprised with WA or NSW, somewhat more surprised with Qld. I find it interesting you don’t see the Liberal Party in with a chance in either territory, both of which are due to have elections this year.

    I think, and I’ve never been particularly on the ball with predictions etc., that the ALP will squeak back in in WA, NT and Queensland, be returned reasonably comfortably in SA and Vic and they’ll probably be returned in a minority Government in the ACT. The big chances for the Liberal Party, in my view are NSW and Tasmania. I find it hard to imagine that the Liberal Party could lose in NSW at the next election, but we’ll see.

  32. Moose, you know why the Pineapple Party needs a miracle or three to win?

    What’s their policy on land clearing?

    Regardless of the answer they give, they’ll place *at least* 10 ordinarily winnable seats out of reach by virtue of simply talking about it. And they’ll be made to talk about it.

    Daylight saving? Makes the Sunshine Coast difficult, again, regardless of the answer they give.

    Those two issues alone are nearly an insurmountable barrier for Pineapple Party victory – let alone the grenades that the ALP is going to lob into the LNP ideological divisions.

  33. LTEP. Libs have NO chance in NT & ACT and no chance in VIC whilst Ted is still leader. No chance in SA while Mike “British Toff Accent” Rann is Premier. Liberals were going to win big in TAS when Big Red was Premier but jury is out whilst we see how the new TAS Premier performs.

    NSW is already in the Bag for the Liberals unless they roll Iemma, however they still have no one else competent in the ranks.

    QLD have The Borg and you know my views on that.


  34. 82 “Perhaps next we will have him crowing about the President of one of the university student unions who is a Young Liberal”

    LTEP, she’s already won Mount Ommaney with 8% swing in the mind of the Moose. Pity about the other 3.3% needed.

  35. Possum Comitatus you will find out about their policies over the next 12 months and during the election campaign, that’s how it works my friend and before you shoot off at the mouth again remember that Federal Labor were a rubble before Krudd was elected leader. Remember? 3 leaders in one term? Mark “Mad Dog” Latham first, then Kim “Bomber” Beazley. Our Little Rodent was doing fine then within 12 months things swung around? remember?

    A week in a long time in Politics Possum and Qld Labor will do what they do best…..go from crisis to crisis….actually I think Nutall will go to jail this year. Good mob those Labor Ministers….

    1. Libby “Drunk” Clark
    2. Gordon “Bag Man” Nuttall
    4. Merri “Blackmailer & Beattie Rooter” Rose
    5. Pat “Bruiser” Purcell

    Just to name a few……..


  36. 84 LTEP – I think you probably have it right but Tas is not as clear cut as all that. I see the Libs picking up NSW at this stage but nowhere else as yet.

  37. Steve, if Julie Attwood leaves Mt Ommaney is in the Borg’s bag. Yeah mate, 11% swing. Inflated number. By the way, did you see the swing the Liberals got in Richlands at the BCC Election? Milton Dick just won and that’s good old Battlersville.

  38. You’ve missed the point Moose – it doesnt matter what their policy is, it will alienate a group they need to win.

    If they run with a policy of increasing land clearing – they will kiss the South East goodbye.
    If they run with a policy of tightening land clearing they will kiss the regions goodbye
    If they have a policy of keeping the status quo – conservative independents will tear them a new one in the regions and the South East wont believe a word they say and they’ll kiss that goodbye too.

    Special interest agrarian socialism is completely incompatible with most of South East QLD.That incompatibility will be exploited to the rafters.

    And I understand fully what happened with Federal Labor and their leaders. When Rudd gained the leadership, the ALP primary jumped 7 points in the next poll and remained there for 8 months.

    What it it do with the Borg again? That’s right, it went backwards on the headline.The best that can be said is that it didnt move at all.

    The other difference between QLD and the ALP federally was this chart:

    The ALP vote was slowly but surely growing anyway – Rudd just accelerated it. The Coalition in QLD hasnt shown the same underlying pattern since the last QLD election.

  39. Oh I see now. Moose is basing his predictions on the Brisbane Local elections.

    Not going to happen Moose. Locally the ALP was in some disarray with Hinchcliffe refusing to run as leader (fairly gutless act IMO). They were forced to parachute a cleanskin in as leader. Greg Rowall is a nice guy but he’s no politician.

    Campbell Newman on the other hand is an excellent campaigner and quite centrist in his policies. The result was fairly predictable.

    If you think the QLD Labor machine is going to make dumb moves like that you’re in for a rude shock. The LNP is the national party in a new frock and the National party has always been about pushing the pork into the country. An increasingly urbanised QLD won’t like that and you can count on Labor to poke and pry at those particular weakness. See possum’s post above for more eloquent details.

    I’m sorry Moosey, it’s not going to happen, it just ain’t.

  40. Perhaps Moose, but the last time I checked electoral behaviour actually had a pretty big impact on election results. Call me old fashioned.

    I know stuff like observable reality is a bit passe in the Pineapple Party these days, but TEH CAPSLOCK can only get you so far you know.

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