The Courier-Mail has today produced an eyebrow-raising poll on Queensland state voting intention, conducted by Galaxy from 800 respondents. It shows Labor’s two-party lead plunging to 52-48 from 61-39 in February, with reversals for Labor of up to 10 per cent on every measure. One of the many supplementary questions is on attitudes to the proposed Coalition merger, showing it would make 23 per cent more likely to vote Coalition against 8 per cent less likely.
Latest Morgan qualitative poll at: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4302/
Irrespective of any blame to Fed Gov’t they cannot give in and cut excise on petrol- there are too many long term issues at stake as is commonly known on this blog.
If the Galaxy is a reflection of Fed then 52-48 is a good result, compared to TPP 50.44% for election, considering small sample etc. Even if people are blaming Fed for petrol prices not too many would seem to be switching their vote. Courier Mail reporters are poor quality and I cancelled my subscription to it long ago. Lets see how things pan out in a few weeks after people get tax cuts etc which were not publicised very well.
Galaxy this far out from the election should be taken with grain of salt. Remember their figures on the popularity of recent budget? – totally different picture to Newspoll. Right before the election they will try to get a true result from their polls as then they can boast on how close they were – its their reputation. I think some of the American pollsters(the biased ones) do the same thing.
This is why I give very little credence to Galaxy Polls and question their motives.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071015-Bahnisch-Galaxy-Poll-shows-things-will-be-close-in-Queensland.html
This far out from a state election? Who says the election will not be early?
Gary Bruce @ 53
I don’t want to become an apologist for Galaxy – but I think you (and Bahnisch) are being somewhat harsh on them.
Their 2007 poll of 4 Qld marginals showed a swing of 5.1% and the actual swing was 7.2%. So not a bullseye – but well within MOE.
It is not clear from the CM article that they distributed 100% of the FF vote to the Coalition. They would have been wrong to do so, but based on the FF vote it would have made less than 1% difference in the 2PP.
And I suspect most of the hype in the CM article was the CM’s interpretation, not Galaxy’s.
“I don’t want to become an apologist for Galaxy” Well don’t then Winston. They have form and this is just one example. They predicted, on the basis of that poll, Labor would only pick up a further 2 extra seats. Is that correct or not?
“The poll, of 800 residents in the marginal, Liberal-held seats of Bonner (0.5 per cent), Herbert (6.2), Longman (6.7) and Moreton (2.8), found Labor on track to pick up just two of these seats.”
“And I suspect most of the hype in the CM article was the CM’s interpretation, not Galaxy’s.” Well, that’s being rather generous on your part. No evidence for this just your gut feel. Yeah.
Ruawake 44
Thinking about it the way you have the sequence of questions, the poll would not be indicative of either State or Fed. People would have some anger at Fed while answering the petrol question but then this would affect their voting preference for the State. So therefore it is not indicative of the State ballot.
But if Fed voting preference questions followed the Fed qualitative questions then a lot of people would not be angry enough to switch votes. And so the poll is not indicative of Fed voting intentions either.
But then again shouldn’t the voting preference questions precede the qualitative questions and not the other way around? So the poll was not correct procedure no matter which way you look at it?
Then the only reason this poll was taken was for propaganda!
Anyway, LNP are a rabble in both State and Fed.!
[Clinton Porteous]
Wasn’t he the guy writing that Rudd could be a one term govt, despite the record run in the polls since he was made leader of the ALP?
Will we hear in 10 years time – ‘honeymoon over’ for Rudd.
These guys are also in genuine denial. The honeymoon word is used because they can’t bring themselves to accept that Labor’s victory was genuine and not some sort of luck.
What we get now is everytime everything is not perfect it will be some sort of marker of the begining of the end.
Galaxy poll questions (Federal) asked just about everything – except voting intention!
Don’t want the CM to have to explain to the punters the huge incongruity which would have emerged. Do we hate Labor or not? Ooh, it’d be so confusing for them.
News Ltd have their own pollster Newspoll (we own them). So the CM would have commissioned this poll and probably provided a list of questions to be asked.
Before the last election Galaxy did a similar thing asking the qualitative questions first. Some were unkind and called this push-polling at the time. 🙂
I will give Galaxy the benefit of the doubt – they had to operate within the funding they recieved. They had to ask certain questions to fulfill the needs of their client.
Its a shame that their methodology leaves their findings open to doubt.
Meanwhile Queensland Education Minister is considering retiring at the next election.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/welford-to-consider-retirement/2008/06/23/1214073114854.html
Peter Martin puts us onto this valuable tool. Look up your representative in parliament or any other.
http://www.openaustralia.org/
Looked up Peter Costello and here is a bit of trivia.
Has spoken in 30 debates in the last year — above average amongst MPs.
People have made 0 comments on this MP’s speeches — well above average amongst MPs.
This MP’s speeches are understandable to an average 16–17 year old, going by the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score.
1 person is tracking whenever this MP speaks — email me whenever Peter Costello speaks.
Has used three-word alliterative phrases (e.g. “she sells seashells”) 237 times in debates — well above average amongst MPs. (Why is this here?)
Some Tassie numbers if anyone is interested
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23912310-5013945,00.html
Take this poll with a grain of salt. The Libs/Nats Noncoalition has recycled another leader. Borg is actually a nice bloke, and this is giving him a nice bounce, but still hasn’t got a team behind him. This is what cost him previously.
Give it two more polls and we’ll see the real state of play. Bligh is just as popular as Beattie ever was.
That Tasmanian Poll looks interesting alright, Stringa. It is a sharp improvement on the last one. They seem to be far more regular down there than what we get in Queensland.
Its a pity the Brisbane Times don’t get Nielson or Essential Media to do a regular poll in Queensland . News Ltd, Newspoll and Galaxy need some competition to keep them honest.