Newspoll: 57-43

UPDATE: The Australian reports no change on two-party from last fortnight, and only a moderate shift in preferred prime minister from 70-12 to 66-17. Full press release from Mumble here, and further polling on petrol price issues here.

Peter Brent at Mumble says he hopes to be first to air with tonight’s eagerly awaited Newspoll result. We have also had a poll today from newcomers Essential Research (who a fortnight ago produced encouraging post-budget intelligence for the government), which shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 56-44. If I heard correctly from SBS, it also showed the Prime Minister’s approval rating down from 67 per cent to 60 per cent. Interestingly, 50 per cent of respondents said Peter Costello and Alexander Downer should retire.

Other news: Former Victorian Police Minister Andre Haermeyer has announced he is quitting politics, initiating a by-election in his rock-solid Labor seat of Kororoit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

541 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. Gary 447
    The two are actually connected I reckon. The consequence of working too hard is you may have a heart attack. And so the soil is prepared(Rudd working too hard) in order to drop the seed in(Heart attack). The seed may or may not grow. But if Rudd has any sort of health turn in the future they will refer back to this incident and the seed may grow a little more. -Cunning as the proverbial rats up a s— drainpipe. I have noticed it is a pattern of how the media operate.

    The accusation of the “lie” merely keeps the debate going plus the polls asking if the food has ever made you crook. It cements the fact that Rudd was sick in the Public’s memory for next time. I mean seriously who can remember what they ate a couple of months ago? It is not credible to most people.

    I cannot remember the media ever putting Howard walking with his limp on TV.

    But to be fair Howard also had a hard time with the Media in the early part of his being Prime Minister. Maybe if Rudd weathers this storm they will start leaving him alone later. He is certainly in a far better position than Howard ever was to weather such an attack. The Media are feral and as such they will recognize it if someone masters them.

    I notice they have left Swan alone now he put forward what is a good budget. Maybe they get back to him later on.

    Such Class!!!

  2. Then 5 mins later it was the voice of…John Howard!

    Did I die in mid 07 and get sent to Hell?

    Please send me forward to 2008.

  3. Not the most impartial way to describe Downer’s radio stint on the ABC website:

    “Listen to Alexander Downer pick apart Kevin Rudd’s plan for a new Asian regional alliance. He’s speaking to Lyndal Curtis.”

    Seriously… someone needs to give these people lessons in how to write short statements in an impartial manner.

  4. thank God for the SMH is all I can say, at least they have some positive headlines for Labor

    “More good economic news for government”
    http://news.smh.com.au/business/more-good-economic-news-for-government-20080605-2m08.html

    Monthly trade deficit down: ABS
    12:52PM | Australia’s monthly trade deficit has fallen to its lowest level since early 2007 as the coal exports have recovered from recent floods, economists say.

    Obama to be friend to Australia: Rudd
    12:22PM | Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama has fond memories of Sydney and will be a good friend to Australia, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says.
    Public asked for thoughts on defence

    12:26PM | The Rudd government is inviting the community to offer ideas for the defence White Paper, expected to be released in December.

    Govt’s light bulbs scheme pushed up
    11:06AM | The Rudd government has fast-tracked the phase-out of traditional light bulbs in favour of greener options to mark World Environment Day.

    Small petrol retailers ‘not worse off’
    10:02AM | Independent petrol retailers in Western Australia have been no worse off under the FuelWatch scheme than the rest of the country.

    Solar rebate program overheating: govt
    9:00AM | A rebate scheme for solar panels, means tested in last month’s federal budget, was so popular it was unsustainable, Environment Minister Peter Garrett says.

  5. Remember Howard’s walks? The media went out of its way to show Howard walking, particularly during elections. Why? To show how fit he was. How he was one of the people and how popular he was. Contrast that with what they report about Rudd. Working too hard, too much spin (the walks weren’t spin?), can’t be trusted.

  6. 456
    Howard regularly copped abuse when walking in Canberra. I only remember 1 incident being shown.
    Anyone know if the dead man still walks?
    Does he still make his own breakfast?
    Ah – the pettiness.

  7. LOL! Nelson reiterates the plan to cut petrol excise at the end of a speech to mark World Environment Day.

    How is cutting petrol excise good for the environment?

  8. It’s pick on Garrett day in Q-time, with the solar panel rebate means test front and centre.
    He’s doing fine.
    3 members warned thus far.
    The government is on message on the budget macro issues.

  9. Tanner has offered to chip in for some anger management for Nelson the angry man.
    It’s getting too easy for him.
    Nelson’s GST windfall from yesterday is getting a grilling. He didn’t mention how trivial the results would be on an individual basis, but the message was clear.

  10. Tanner in QT= “The leader of the oppositions is a angry man Mr speaker, Why, he’s angry about just about everything!, I’ll even chip in for some anger management for him” LMAO

    Tanner= Owned them 🙂

  11. Shock horror – it’s Thursday afternoon and Tuckey has been removed..again.
    It’s 2:50pm and a quick check shows QF1486/QF571 leaving at 4:05pm.
    Other flights home today are at 5:35 and 7:30pm.
    The speaker intimated as much.

  12. Some observations about today’s QT:

    1. Tanner is a terrific parliamentary performer
    2. Garrett looked very wooden today, in my opinion
    3. My favourite Labor backbencher: James Bidgood, the member for Dawson. He adds some colour to proceedings!
    4. The member for Fremantle is damn cute(my blokey aside for today)

  13. #433 Hey Bushfire Bill – thanks for remembering me (even if I don’t agree with your precis of my comments).

    Those who are rambling on about how the ABC is anti-Labor, and giving Downer a run about Rudd’s plan for some Asian supergroup in 2020, obviously failed to hear the lead item on AM this morning, which was a grovelling tribute to Rudd’s plan, complete with Kevin 24/7 crapping on about “architecture”.

    I do think that if you listen and watch all ABC outlets (or Fairfax, for that matter), all day and all night, you’ll find pretty much every point of view about every news event covered. While I agree that some items look biased one way or another, the totality of coverage is comprehensive and pretty accurate. People hear what they want to hear. As a journalist, I have frequently done political interviews and had radio listeners ring up to successfully accuse me of being anti-government and pro-government (and that’s iresspoective of what party the government was).

    My best advice is to read as much as possible on every topic, and take everything with a grain of salt. And I like the way most people of Poll Bludger do this.

    Incidentally, re Spewgate: Far be it for me to depend the Daily Telegraph, but I think they’re having a bit of fun with this story. I don’t think it’s part of some Rudd persecution conspiracy plan.

  14. Doug @ 452 –

    The two are actually connected I reckon. The consequence of working too hard is you may have a heart attack. And so the soil is prepared (Rudd working too hard) in order to drop the seed in (Heart attack).

    The Age’s Tony Wright – normally not a Lib shrill – said on radio this morning that he and others around the Age water cooler don’t believe the upset stomach explanation and that Rudd had some sort of heart scare from working too hard.

    Also went on and on about all the paperwork Rudd brings with him to QT apparently for “comfort”! Sigh. Seems this is a sure sign he’s working himself into an early grave.

    I guess after 12 years of a government who wrote their policies on the backs of envelopes (the Murray/Darling rescue plan), or in the case of Nelson’s decision to buy aircraft the RAAF didn’t want, on the back of a 1 cent stamp, anyone carrying more than a single sheet of A4 must seem odd to the press gallery.

  15. oh and the sixth last line should read “successively” not “successfully” !!! No doubt someone will accuse me of a freudian slip…

  16. So you can have a mild heart attack and go on and continue the breakneck workload as though nothing has happened. That is pure BS and commonsense tells you this.

  17. 468
    Progressive Says:
    Some observations about today’s QT:
    1. Tanner is a terrific parliamentary performer

    Said it before, say it again: I think Tanner is one the most under rated, under acknowledged politicians Australia has ever produced.

  18. Antonio

    “Incidentally, re Spewgate: Far be it for me to depend the Daily Telegraph, but I think they’re having a bit of fun with this story.”

    Agree totally, taking the piss as it were. During the election I used to love dropping in on a blog, (not this PB, one more One Nation orientated) leaving an outrageous comment and then dropping back a a few hours later to see how many “bites” I got.

  19. Peter Garrett is wiping the floor with the opposition in his reply to the MPI. And he’s right on song with the big picture approach.

  20. Spotted this re question time.

    “Tanya Plibersek yesterday was accused of using the issue of domestic and sexual assault to score political points.”

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23812628-5001021,00.html

    The opposition were going well

    “Liberal frontbencher Christopher Pyne claimed Ms Plibersek had “implied that members of the former government trivialised domestic violence”.”

    Until

    “Outside Parliament, Alexander Downer searched online files and found an interview in which Ms Bishop had backed Ms Plibersek’s husband, Michael Coutts-Trotter”

    Maybe they should have got someone else to search online files. Have they forgotten Lexy’s “The things that batter” remark that cost him the opposition leadership and thus prevented Keating winning another term.

  21. No Freudian accusations from me in your direction, Antonio, just a straight out finger-point at the ABC.

    One upon a time the ABC used to be lively, but there was room for all views. Nowadays, not so much.

    This piffle you spout about staying up all night, switching channels so that I can get an idea of the “real” ABC is laughable.

    Mate, I listen to the news in the background as I work from home… during the day, like an ordinary consumer… and the ABC news is as crook as Rookwood.

    A couple of cases in point.

    1. Why, when there are thousands of journalists out there does ABC radio and television just about always have a hack from News Ltd. to spruik anti-Labor bile? What about their own journalists? Not good enough for Insiders, or Lateline, or afternoon radio comentary (I except 702’s ring-around the ABC offices interstate from this). Piers Akerman, Andrew Bolt, Greg Sheridan, Malcolm Farr, that dill from Sky News, Dennis Shanahan (notably during the period when he was writing the “Beazley’s Gone” articles in 2006). The list goes on. Get rid of them, Tony.

    2. A long interview with Alexander Downer today on The World Today, and last week, and the week before, on Lateline, on the news spouting on as if he was the Foreign minister still. Add in Minchin regularly on AM, Andrew Robb, on and on they go, usually without a response from the equivalent government spokesperson. I remember only last week when Minchin was on AM about Defence. The interviewer said, “While you’re here: what do you think about Mr.Rudd spending all that money in Bali?” The response from Minchin was oh-so-predictable. I expected someone from the government to come and rebut the nonsense, and all we got was, “And that ends our story…”. And don’t get me going about Joe Hockey. The only thing heavyweight about Uncle Joe is his girth. A total bovver-boy. He’s never cross-questioned, none of his bull$hit is ever called for what it is. Instead – and this applies to most of them – we get pure stenography. It isn’t true what they say, it’s only true that they said it and got away with it from some hapless, compliant ABC radio interviewer.

    The last concept was your argument in a nutshell, Tony, and don’t try to wheedle out of it with obscure references to late night news coverage and assiduous channel surfing to prove your point. The mainstream ABC broadcasts, on TV and radio, are full of anti-Labor, tabloid crap, and you damn well know it.

  22. Catching up on earlier postings, agree with Fred at 450, 453 and LTEP 459. Had same instant reactions and had ranted the following, so am posting ‘as-is’ with apologies for it being too long.

    Have also read Antonio at 469 and appreciate your pov as a journalist.

    Haven’t read transcript yet, so this is based on memory. Nevertheless I’m bit concerned and annoyed with another example of strange editorial?/reporting? attitude on ABC, on Radio National’s The World Today.

    Have had similar reactions in recent past to items on The World Today, and ABC radio and TV in general. Do appreciate reporting of facts and relevant opinions (well-thought out or not, opposite mine or not), which probably explains my minimal attention to the MSM. And it’s not always about which ‘side’ has more air time.

    An interview with the ABC’s reporter gave Mr Alexander Downer a lengthy opportunity to comment glibly (in the second sense of the word) on the Prime Minister’s reported discussions relating to the Asia-Pacific region. I haven’t heard more detail about this, but Matthew Franklin, in today’s online OO, says:

    “And he (Mr Rudd) said his proposal was consistent with US President George W.Bush’s call for the development of an Asia-Pacific free trade area.

    “While the EU should not provide “an identikit model”, the Asia-Pacific region could learn much from the union, which in the 1950s had been seen by sceptics as unrealistic.

    ” “Our special challenge is that we face a region with greater diversity in political systems and economic structures, levels of development, religious beliefs, languages and cultures, than did our counterparts in Europe,” Mr Rudd said. “But that should not stop us from thinking big.” ”

    Mr Downer apparently has the same interpretation as Mr Franklin, as his responses and, in my opinion, sounding of dog-whistles, were prefaced several times by “if” Mr Rudd is “thinking” of an EU-style arrangement.
    Would therefore like to understand the rationale of having an extended ‘critique’ of something the Prime Minister is reported to be not specifically thinking of (an ‘identikit model’ of the EU), by a person who is currently/temporarily? an Opposition back-bencher, and was at least twice described as “Australia’s longest serving foreign minister”, presumably to justify the interview.

    It must be almost impossible to deal with politicians who are desperate to sell a ‘message’. Mr Downer could not be encouraged to offer his opinions on what Australia could or should not adopt from a model that the Prime Minister might be thinking about using parts of. It might have been useful to know his thoughts.

    Instead Mr Downer railed against Australia’s certain and impending ‘loss of sovereignty’ to Asian countries (was that the sound of a dog-whistle?) including Burma (another dog-whistle?) and a number of others he named. I won’t be surprised if these comments go on to form the basis of further ‘news’ items, and so on and on.

    Thought of emailing someone at ABC to say that at least one listener to the World Today still expects a bit of relevance in interviews, but then thought, no, I’m biased – JA etc would just dismiss any criticism (especially if over-wordy) as anti-“gliberal”.

  23. 482

    Drat! Bushfire Bill, as always, said everything I should have, and better! Could have saved bandwidth and not sent my post just now!

  24. 1. Tanner is a terrific parliamentary performer

    Said it before, say it again: I think Tanner is one the most under rated, under acknowledged politicians Australia has ever produced.

    Agree completely. Lindsay Tanner: watch this space.

    As Finance Minister, he would be third in line for the top job, wouldn’t he, behind Julia as Deputy and Wayne as Treasurer?

  25. The 24/7 concerns on Rudd are pure nonsense.

    The only concern you would have would be for a person who started working 24/7 for a long period where they never did before and, only then if they were creating stress hormones. I can certainly work an entire day and night and be quite happy, if it is something I am enjoying or very interested in and, not feel any stress.

    I bet if you look back at Kev’s uni days and thereafter you will find the same 24/7. ie he is not stressing himself, he is going according to his normal pace. You can bet Kev is enjoying every minute of what he is doing.

    Same here, have been going to bed about 1.00am and getting up at 7.00 am ever since high school. Others however cannot survive without more/less sleep.

  26. I agree about the positive things being said about Lindsay Tanner. He is a stong, intelligent, balanced individual with just enough mongrel under the surface. A very solid and dependable parliamentary and media performer. Just compare him to his opposite number, Dutton.

  27. Well I have been critical of some State governments on transport in the past, and Adelaide has certainly suffered from under investment in previous decades, but here is good news. In the SA budget handed down today they have finally committed to electrifying the Adelaide trains and extending the tram to Port Adelaide. Hurray!
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23815160-5006301,00.html

    This is the most sensible transport decision I have seen from any Australian government this year. They are not just electrifying the current (diesel) system but extending its capacity, recognising the problems with overcrowding.

    It might seem a strange thing to say, but I am also pleased they have said it will be a ten year program. That is an honest, realistic estimate of how long it will take to do properly; Brisbane in the 80s and Perth in the 90s took similar times to electrify their networks. Given the shortage of skilled people in the construction and engineering fields now, anything else would have been an undeliverable promise. Well done Kevin Foley and Pat Congden.

  28. [Peter Garrett is wiping the floor with the opposition in his reply to the MPI. And he’s right on song with the big picture approach.]

    I’m glad someone else appreciated his speech. I think it is one of the best speeches made all week.

  29. Trolley buses would be a lot cheaper to build the infrastructure for than trams (only need the overhead powerlines.) I have seen photos of trolleybuses the size of a Bdouble.

    I remember catching the trolleybuses down Port Rd in the sixties. Very smooth ride!

  30. Alex Hawke’s reason for opposing fuel watch “70% of people in my electorate own more than 2 cars”

    He seems to think that the more cars you own the less you should pay for petrol. i.e. frequent driver points.

  31. ShowsOn

    I haven’t seen the speech but am glad to hear Garrett is performing well. In many ways I don’t think he is a skilled politician yet, but he is not stupid and will learn, so its good to hear he is getting more confident and in command of his portfolio.

  32. ShowsOn

    By Hawke’s logic, if he were in an electorate with a high crime rate, I suppose he would want lower sentences? To be non-partisan about it, Hawke reminds me of a Liberal version of a young Mike Kaiser. Neither man should feel flattered.

  33. Muskiemp and Gary

    Its even worse than that; I can imagine Pier’s next column now:
    “Rudd and Swan FORCE Pensioners to grow old!”

    Its all his fault. Sing “Bloody Kev” to the tune of “Bloody Jeff”.

  34. Pensioner hardship became a hot issue on 25 November 2007. Prior to that, everything was sweetness and roses and abundance.

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