Newspoll: 57-43

UPDATE: The Australian reports no change on two-party from last fortnight, and only a moderate shift in preferred prime minister from 70-12 to 66-17. Full press release from Mumble here, and further polling on petrol price issues here.

Peter Brent at Mumble says he hopes to be first to air with tonight’s eagerly awaited Newspoll result. We have also had a poll today from newcomers Essential Research (who a fortnight ago produced encouraging post-budget intelligence for the government), which shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 56-44. If I heard correctly from SBS, it also showed the Prime Minister’s approval rating down from 67 per cent to 60 per cent. Interestingly, 50 per cent of respondents said Peter Costello and Alexander Downer should retire.

Other news: Former Victorian Police Minister Andre Haermeyer has announced he is quitting politics, initiating a by-election in his rock-solid Labor seat of Kororoit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

541 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. That will teach him to pretend that he is an art critic.

    Pity really, would have been nice for the MSM to fail in their efforts.

  2. I’ll pay attention to newspoll, not some poll I’ve never heard of before today – and why wasn’t it headline news when this poll had Kevin at 61%?

    There were a heap of polls during the election, from previously unheard of pollsters using a range of methods, which had predicted election outcomes ranging from Labor winning all the seats in Parliament except for half a dozen (one of which was Rudd’s) to a Howard landslide.

    Even the reliable polls had the occasional ‘it can’t be true’ result – with the next poll in the series confirming that no, it wasn’t.

    Polls have to be part of a series to be meaningful in any way.

    Happy to wear a newspoll blip, if it comes. Newly elected governments are SUPPOSED to dip after their first budget, and then recover ground with ‘nice’ budgets in the lead up to the actual election.

    I’m actually disinclined to believe there will be one, however. If being nasty to pensioners and discriminating against innocent babes in arms didn’t dent Kevin, why will promising to keep an eye on the price of petrol?

  3. Gee the Kororoit by-election will be exciting……

    The good folks of Sunshine and Ardeer would vote for a fire hydrant if it had ALP scribbled on it.

  4. Well, I don’t care if The Australian is publishing the results a couple of minutes before they are aired on Lateline. I still won’t be gracing the OO with a click.

  5. The ABC news now running with the numbers at the 9:30 pm slot in Melbourne

    but no mention that it is from some backyard crew called ” essential’

    the implication was that it is newspoll

    a 10% drop in PPM is amazing…but I await confirmation

    as tex perkins said, ” the honeymoon is over baby, its never going to be that way againnnnnnnnn”

  6. ha, that’s Derrimut. oops.

    Well Deer Park is no different.

    The pre-selection bunfight will be far more exciting than the actual election

  7. Results announced on Abc news at 9.30 regarding leadership ratings Rudd 66 and Nelson 17. Also it was mentioned that Labor has taken a 5 point hit. Unsure of numbers though.
    A bad week got even worse for Labor but one suspects Nelson just had a worse week.

  8. This Essential poll is 56-44 off 61-39, but the last newspoll was ‘only’ 57-43.

    So if there’s no or little change to Newspoll, it could just be that the previous poll was rogue.

    BTW is AC neilsen due a poll this week too?

  9. But does it still have Labor way in front? I suspect so. And is Labor still in government? Yes. No change then.

  10. Yes- preferred Prime Minister. A shocking result for Nelson, he has made after a good week little ground. He is a dead duck.

  11. I guess it is just as well most people are totally ignorant of politics otherwise every bad government would lead to its obliteration as a party.

    If people were actually aware of just what the Howard govt was like you may have had a 80/20 result. And likewise for bad Labor governments.

  12. #18

    That’s two party politics for you, Kina. No matter how incompetent, corrupt and generally unelectable you are, 40% will always vote for you. And no matter how good a job you’re doing, 40% will always vote against you.

  13. Oh come on Mr Squiggle you’re crowing about a result that is 2 1/2 years away from an election and still has the Libs trailing badly. Whatever turns you on I guess. Besides what I said is accurate.

  14. Yes Barry Gruce, what you said was accurate, no denying….

    still, seeing Brendan ” I need no blanket, my love for my country keeps me warm” nelson pick up 10 points is like seeing the rabbitohs post a good score

    damme, I was hoping to go to bed early tonight, now I have to stay up and watch Lateline

  15. I can’t even find a website for this stupid Essential research online poll. What and where is it?

    Who does it ask and how many or are people simply online and it has no scientific basis at all.

  16. Nelson after a great week doubles his score from 9 to 17 whoppee, he will need many many more good weeks to increase his score, one suspects his weeks are numbered. Mr Squiggle celebrate all you can, i am only hoping he stays leader until next election.

  17. Nelson will need more than 17% to save his leadership, especially after the help he’s received over last week. By the way Sr Mquiggle what goes down can rise again especially when the Libs go into self destruct mode, which is coming.

  18. Marky marky,

    IF Brendan can pick up 10 points over a measly 5 cents of petrol, how much more will he pick up when he hits on a real issue of substance

    Just remember Rudd lovers, you pick up speed when you are heading downhill

  19. Brendan didn’t pick up much at all, most of the work was done by the MSM. If they reported honestly his rating should have gone down.

  20. Mr S

    ‘IF Brendan can pick up 10 points over a measly 5 cents of petrol, how much more will he pick up when he hits on a real issue of substance’

    such as ?

  21. The LNP have no credible leader and precious little talent on display, how on earth can they receive support except from those who would support them no matter what and, the others who vote like supporting a footy side. Quite honestly the current LNP set up would have to one of their worst in a very long time.

  22. Well spotted gusface, perhaps we should just hand him a megaphone and an an new set of earings and he’ll be out the front of parliament shouting

    ” i’ve never voted liberal in my life before…. and oh sh1t, now I’m a leader, what should I stand for??”


    According to the latest Newspoll survey, taken last weekend exclusively for The Australian, Mr Rudd’s standing as preferred prime minister dropped from 70 per cent to 66 per cent. The Opposition Leader’s support rose from 12 per cent to his highest rating of 17 per cent.

    On a two-party preferred basis, based on preference flows at the last election, support was unchanged at 43 per cent for the Coalition and 57 per cent for Labor.

  24. Now let’s see how the meeja interpret those numbers. I’m sure it’s the end of the honeymoon and now the Libs are going to rebuild and make this only the second first term government in Australian history.

    Yeah right.

  25. Enjoy the effect these figures have on the LNP.

    They need to change to Turnbull before the by elections, it wont harm them and it will probably help and they need to get an idea how he will do long before the general election comes along.

  26. well that was a lot o nothing

    rudd preferred PM down to 2/3 of the population

    he must be shitting himself


  27. I agree it is still a good result but I don’t think Rudd supporters should get too carried away. Yes Nelson is stillfive cent and some media were biased, but after seeing Media Watch on the Henson art photos this week I wish Rudd hadn’t poked his nose into that. On the plus side, troops home from Iraq should see a bounce back next week. Plus, if everyone stops trying to compete with Nelson for stupidest suggestion (no fuel GST versus 5 cents) they might actually make some headway focusing on reducing inflation adn controlling interest rates. You know, the government thing…

  28. Actually if Turnbull really is a moderate then we should hope that he does have some success as leader. The idea is to bring the LNP back from the far right. Then Rudd and Turnbull can compete on who can do the best for the Australian people, not over racism, bigotry, fear, workchoices etc

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