Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Morgan’s latest survey combines two sets of phone polling conducted in the middle of this week and last week, producing an unusually large sample of 2231. Normally their phone poll figures consist of only one such set of polling. It shows Labor leading 60.5-39.5 per cent on two-party preferred – down from 61-39 at the phone poll of March 11-12, and from 63.5-36.5 in the more recent face-to-face survey released last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

314 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

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  1. Got to love this line

    “Liberal leader Brendan Nelson and his colleagues will be hoping they can continue this momentum in the lead up to the release of Labor’s first Federal Budget in more than a decade.”

    continue this momentum????????????

    What’s Gary been smokin?

  2. This is some sort of honeymoon, did Howard get this sort of honeymoon?

    Will the Nelson party now wake up and realise running a OO ABC LNP sniping campaign just doesn’t cut it? Better to appear a competent alternative than to be a perpetual critic. 15 months of the LNP and OO being continually negative on Rudd seems to have not cost him anything. There is a message in that.

  3. Kina, poss has done an analysis of Howard’s honeymoon compared to Rudd’s and shown that, at this point in the cycle, Beazley was streets ahead of Nelson.

  4. The narrowing and the increase in the LNP two party preferred vote will come as the effect of Salutegate on every day Australians hits home.

  5. I must say that I am relieved to read the comments on that ABC story about “Salutegate”. Clearly, Nelson has a much inflated sense of self importance to think he should criticise the PM on what is so clearly a non-issue, and I am seriously amazed at the level of coverage this is getting.

  6. {The narrowing and the increase in the LNP two party preferred vote will come as the effect of Salutegate on every day Australians hits home.}

    Er yeah righto….. just like it did with “Burkegate” Al ?

  7. hahahahh
    may I suggest SportingBet to offer a bet on when the Libs dump Nelson:
    a) in 2008
    b) in 2009
    c) in 2010
    d) beyond next election

  8. Sorry, my sarcasm setting was up too high. I think it’ll have about the same effect as the Heiner “affair”, i.e. something to talk about on the Akerman blog, but no one else will give a rats.

  9. A Bank backflip? The Listening Tour falls apart at the seams.

    [In Adelaide Dr Nelson said he had told the finance audience in Sydney that their policies were hurting ordinary Australians.

    “What I also said yesterday, by the way, was that those people who are actually foreclosing on peoples’ homes in this environment where interest rates are going up, they also have a difficult job,” he said.

    “But you’re absolutely right. I mean I spent 10 years of my life working with families who are losing their homes and there’s no comparison.”],23599,23479592-421,00.html

  10. I agree that there is not much change. It seems that whenever the media has snipped at Rudd with headlines the 2PP has dropped from the mid 60’s to around 60%. I seem to remember the Carer’s Bonus had a run at the time when it went down to 61%. Looks like only the real soft end of the vote has been affected to now and it would take perhaps a major event to pull the 2PP down further.

    Some people would be confused (especially with the headlines) on what Rudd is actually doing overseas. I am satisfied that he is going according to a defiinate game plan and that as his trip continues this will become apparent to the public.

    I can see even conservative commentators will give him grudging respect as Sheridan did the other day.

    What would any previous PM have given to get the consistent Polling figures that the ALP is getting now?

  11. I think people will be left with the image of Rudd being overseas being busy meeting lots of important people, being friendly with the USA and having a unique in with China and end up with the subconcious impression of ‘thats a good thing’.

    With a barely attentive electorate Rudd will get home prestige and increased credibility from this, it all builds into the image of a safe and competent PM.

    The problem Nelson and the LNP really have is that Labor are only going to get better as they get used to their portfolios and in dealing with the media as the government.

    Before the election just about all the Labor shadows won their debates with Howard’s ministers, how much better are they going to be after three years in government?

    AND just to make it easier for Labor Nelson still has a workchoices type IR platform. Not to mention the blood-letting and reorganising that is still to come.

  12. So how do the die hard left wingers feel to have an ALP Prime Minister who salutes George Bush whenever he sees him? LOL a far cry from Mark Latham’s views on W is it not?

  13. ignoring Morgan’s ridiculous characterisation of this as momentum for Nelson(does this man care about credibility??), does anyone seriously think that Rudd will not fashion a politically savvy budget with enough sweeteners and surprises to get a positive reaction?? I think the government are overplaying the budget cuts line to dampen expectations

  14. Actually Rudd looked kind of dorky flicking that little salute, the sort of thing you do when a little wave of acknowedledgement would look even more lame. I found it more amusing that Bush was wandering around by himself.

    Best thing though is Rudd stuck to the withdraw from Iraq line with Bush.

    Wonder how Obama and Rudd will get on?

  15. How does it feel to have an ALP Prime Minister, Glen??? Absolutely wonderful – no matter who he waves at.

    How does it feel to have a Liberal Opposition Leader???

  16. Glen
    You might have been drinking but grow up son.

    While we’re at it why don’t we debate who had which foot forward when they shook hands; who squeezed harder; who rolled their wrist over; or if you really want to discuss body language we can get right in to the nuances of diplomatic protocol. a lame little gesture from a geek to a dimwit is NOT news, either in context of the PM’s current trip or the wider machinations of the planet.
    My mum was right:
    “small things amuse small minds”

  17. …a far cry from Mark Latham’s views on W is it not?

    Yes, Glen, it was. And your point is?

    FYI, it was a Labor government that inaugurated the Alliance, way back in 1942, when Pig Iron Bob Menzies was crying “King and Empire!”, settling his fat posterios on a chair in Churchill’s War Cabinet. . Why shouldn’t a Labor PM and an American President be chummy? This is just very old nation-friends getting together.

  18. The Liberals must have real problems to be going on the offensive over something as inconsequential as a hand gesture.

    They obviously prefer to “raise” this unissue, than talk publicly the details of their WorkChoices policy MKII, the divisions within the federal and state parties, how they are to fund a number of upcoming by-elections without the benefits of incumbency.

    How the born-to-rule have fallen! Talking hand gestures, if you please … while Rudd forges connections OS and Labor runs the country with competence and dedication.

  19. Pig Iron holds the record for overseas trips, nearly six months to visit his preferred country. Six MONTHS.

    To be fair it took 6 weeks by ship there and back – so he only spent 3 months in talks with the UK. 🙁

  20. I’m just glad you saw it as a positive for Rudd Glen, unlike your leader. Nelson has made a goose of himself over this non event.

  21. [Pig Iron holds the record for overseas trips, nearly six months to visit his preferred country. Six MONTHS.

    To be fair it took 6 weeks by ship there and back – so he only spent 3 months in talks with the UK. ]

    And funnily enough, it concided with Australia playing against England in the Test Cricket.

  22. “Mr Rudd is seen raising his eyebrows to Mr Bush who was across the room, as the President saluted Mr Rudd, the Prime Minister smiled and slowly gave a salute of his own.”'s-'light-hearted'-Bush-salute

    Now will the MSM report “Shrub salutes Rudd” does “call me – Brendan” have any criticism for GWB for saluting the PM of Australia?

    Brendan stick to listening – you only make things worse when you talk. 🙂

  23. ruawake Says:
    April 4th, 2008 at 4:16 pm

    He could have flicked ear-wax at him


    ruawake… I see you were reminded of our previous conversation as you read that Glen “insight” too 😉

  24. Oh Dear, guess who’s joining the Listening Tour.

    [She said: “I am also travelling around WA in the weeks leading up to the federal Budget.

    “I am chairing the coalition’s policy review committee, which is reviewing all our policies and developing new ideas in consultation with a broad cross-section of the community.

    “Our next meeting will be on Wednesday, April 9, and we will map out our plans for community consultations for the rest of the year.”]

  25. Kev obviously wasn’t blatantly taking the piss,
    but I’d like to believe there was the merest, subconscious slither of irony at play there.

    Like saluting loud old drunks on the street, or people who think they are Napoleon?

    Isn’t such a gesture in a civilian Australian context always ironic?

    Damn, a truth update – if ruawakes link is correct and George went first, then was he being ironic too?
    “I’m gonna salute that nerd”
    “I’m going to salute that idiot”

  26. 35 – There weren’t any tests during the war. Ming was actually trying to get a Imperial War Cabinet happening like in WW1 (The Canadians didn’t want a bar of it in WW2). There was a rumour he wanted to take over from Churchill as UK PM but I think he was about the only person who wanted that.

    As for the saluting, if someone waves at you, isn’t rude not to reply?

  27. Jeez, this is all too depressing, when are the Libs going to grow up and start behaving as an Opposition, not a carping bunch of public school dim-wits. The way they are carrying on is bloody unbelievable. As much as I detest Bush, he is the POTUS, and I would expect our PM to behave in a reasonable manner toward him. To even contemplate how Latham would have behaved is so irrelevant, time to grow up people, there is nothing to see here.

  28. 39 [“Our next meeting will be on Wednesday, April 9, and we will map out our plans for community consultations for the rest of the year.”]

    It will be a very busy meeting to keep up with Rudd and to tell you the truth, I don’t think that even with the Listening tour and the Bishop consultations that they will finish the year ahead of him.

  29. Oh no, I find something over which I agree with Howard, as per post 20 link:

    “Channel Ten will use John Howard to help promote the latest season of Big Brother, despite the former prime minister once calling for the reality television show to be axed.

  30. Basil, are you sure they’re not referring to John Howard the actor? I dont think I heard any specific reference to our former PM.
    Although JH the actor probably has more pride than to promote garbage like Big Brother….

  31. I am disappointed by the ABC’s continuing coverage of this NON-EVENT. Now we have this:
    “The PM has again defended his overseas tour schedule, while under fire for saluting the US President.
    In Australia, [Rudd’s performance at the NATO summit] has been overshadowed by the reaction to the way Mr Rudd greeted US President George W Bush.”

    Seriously, after the public comments to the previous story I would have imagined that they might have stopped trying to make this nothing into a story.

  32. Somebody should remind Mr. Rudd never to raise his right arm above his shoulder while trying to get something from the shelf. All hell would break loose in the Australian media if they got a shot of it….

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